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General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    I assume he would step down if we get a tory majority. Obviously losing 2 elections would haunt him, but he and his supporters will take some heart from the fact that his style of politics is entrenched in the party.

    I see the bookies have Starmer fav,,,he's very impressive but its very tricky to know how popular he is with the base of the party. I could see the identity politics obsessed on the left crucifying him unfortunately.

    Long Bailey second fav and probably should be fav tbh. Young, female and would definitely be someone the left of the party could get behind.

    Can't see anyone else challenging, Piddock not well known enough, Cooper, Thornberry and Philips will be cheered by the media but have absolutely zero chance of winning a members vote.

    Could also speculate about who would replace Boris if he doesn't get it done on Thursday.,,can't imagine wealthy donars will be in a forgiving mood if we get some sort of lefty alliance at the end of this.

    assuming the Tories get an overall majority, i cant see how Corbyn can stay on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    One thing is clear, if the Tories do make it back in, particularly this hard right incarnation of the party, then life in the UK is going to become untenable for millions.

    Austerity has been disastrous. Over 17,000 sick people have died after being declared fit for work. Child poverty is predicted to hit 40% by 2022. At least 320,000 people are homeless. The erosion of the NHS has led to unprecedented waiting times. Cutbacks in police and social services has led to an acceleration in the breakdown of security and society in general. As they say - the cruelty is the point.

    A hard Brexit will massively exacerbate these trends and probably be the death knell for the NHS. Inequality will skyrocket as living standards drop and the cost of living increases. The inevitable breakup of the UK that follows will further destabilise society. Most alarmingly, elements of the Tory manifesto promise a degradation of British democratic norms and combined with FPTP, a toxic billionaire owned media and the effective evisceration of BBC impartiality may signal the end of British democracy (already deeply compromised) as we know it.

    That's before we look at British foreign policy, their deep culpability of the deaths of tens of thousands of children in Yemen, constant and unapologetic support for dictatorial regimes and their status as the 2nd biggest arms dealer in the world.

    Its not simply that Boris will be another Trump. A deeply racist, ruthless and narcissistic clown, but Brexit has also dragged the Tory party into far right territory in recent years, as evidenced by their immigration policy and the abhorrent windrush scandal.

    Put these elements together and it is not unreasonable to imagine that Britain may well fall into fascism (and I don't use the term lightly). All the elements are already in place, and this election could be the catalyst for a series of events which makes the transformation inevitable.

    Why anybody with an ounce of humanity would advocate this outcome is beyond me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,667 ✭✭✭quokula


    assuming the Tories get an overall majority, i cant see how Corbyn can stay on.

    And if the Tories don’t get a majority, I don’t see how Johnson can stay on.

    This is hardly groundbreaking or shocking is it? It’s what political parties do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Aegir wrote:
    you said there were loads of stats about how the British suffer from a lack of education. When asked for evidence, you relied on a quiz about the european union, but claimed that PISA is not a good indication of education standards.
    I explained exactly the irrelevance of the the PISA report - it assesses 15 year olds, who are obviously irrelevant to this discussion. We're talking about voters. But if you insist - PISA measures very narrow skills namely Reading, Maths and Science. None of these relate to the quality of the general knowledge one may have, especially history, civic education and politics.

    The "quiz" was done by the EU, it's from the Eurobarometer report .

    And the other piece was a research by UK in a Changing Europe and Ipsos MORI. I


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,667 ✭✭✭quokula


    droidus wrote: »
    One thing is clear, if the Tories do make it back in, particularly this hard right incarnation of the party, then life in the UK is going to become untenable for millions.

    Austerity has been disastrous. Over 17,000 sick people have died after being declared fit for work. Child poverty is predicted to hit 40% by 2022. At least 320,000 people are homeless. The erosion of the NHS has led to unprecedented waiting times. Cutbacks in police and social services has led to an acceleration in the breakdown of security and society in general. As they say - the cruelty is the point.

    A hard Brexit will massively exacerbate these trends and probably be the death knell for the NHS. Inequality will skyrocket as living standards drop and the cost of living increases. The inevitable breakup of the UK that follows will further destabilise society. Most alarmingly, elements of the Tory manifesto promise a degradation of British democratic norms and combined with FPTP, a toxic billionaire owned media and the effective evisceration of BBC impartiality may signal the end of British democracy (already deeply compromised) as we know it.

    That's before we look at British foreign policy, their deep culpability of the deaths of tens of thousands of children in Yemen, constant and unapologetic support for dictatorial regimes and their status as the 2nd biggest arms dealer in the world.

    Its not simply that Boris will be another Trump. A deeply racist, ruthless and narcissistic clown, but Brexit has also dragged the Tory party into far right territory in recent years, as evidenced by their immigration policy and the abhorrent windrush scandal.

    Put these elements together and it is not unreasonable to imagine that Britain may well fall into fascism (and I don't use the term lightly). All the elements are already in place, and this election could be the catalyst for a series of events which makes the transformation inevitable.

    Why anybody with an ounce of humanity would advocate this outcome is beyond me.

    Well said. Sometimes people treat this as an academic exercise, or a sport to cheer on one side against another. But it’s so much more important than that - the amount of real human suffering that a Tory government will create (and has been creating for some time) in contrasts to the efforts of a Labour government to improve people’s lives. The contrast is stark.

    And you didn’t even mention the difference in climate change policies that will create the starkest difference of all in the long run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    schmittel wrote:
    Interesting. The same research casts doubt on the Cambridge Analytica effect
    That's wrong. I have personal experience of older people who trust basically everything showing up on the Internet or sent to them via spam email. They don't have to use Internet frequently at all to further harden and confirm their opinions, which is how Putin style CA electronic propaganda & manipulation work - keep people stuck in their confirmation bias bubbles and amplify it, basically show them what they want to see.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Interesting thing about this election is that tories are behind labour and lib dems when it comes to online advertising spending. At least it was when i last read about it. Labour were racking up £40k per day on Facebook and the like and winning the viral war. I dont know does that mean the tories dont believe its worth spending big sums on but they will be launching a huge online assault over last few days so maybe just a case of keeping their powder dry.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    quokula wrote: »
    And if the Tories don’t get a majority, I don’t see how Johnson can stay on.

    This is hardly groundbreaking or shocking is it? It’s what political parties do.

    point taken, but it is Johnson's to lose imo. i cant see the UK electorate being so foolish as to elect Corbyn.

    it would be like us voting yer man Richard Boyd Barrett as Taoiseach!:eek:
    i mean how likely would that be. really?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    point taken, but it is Johnson's to lose imo. i cant see the UK electorate being so foolish as to elect Corbyn.
    Nobody expects Corbyn to be elected.
    It's either a hung parliament or a tory majority.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    quokula wrote: »
    And you didn’t even mention the difference in climate change policies that will create the starkest difference of all in the long run.

    In the medium term even. I fully expect the social, economic and political effects of climate change to start impacting the UK in the next five years.

    Still, I could be very wrong, and Im as pessimistic as the next person but I have a feeling this isn't going to be as cut and dried as some people think it will be. There's still a significant chance of a hung parliament, and the slim possibility of a Labour minority. Trump only had a 1 in 3 chance of victory after all.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Survation.

    CON: 45% (+3)
    LAB: 31% (-2)
    LDEM: 11 (-)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-2)

    Turn out the lights.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,190 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    McGiver wrote: »
    That's wrong. I have personal experience of older people who trust basically everything showing up on the Internet or sent to them via spam email. They've don't have to use Internet frequently at all to further harden and confirm their opinions, which is how Putin style CA electronic propaganda & manipulation work - keep people stuck in their confirmation bias bubbles and amplify it, basically show them what they want to see.

    And Brexit totally lends itself to confirmation bias. As people actively voted for it (in 'the decision of a generation' no less), it becomes difficult in the extreme to row back on that vote or admit they might possibly have been wrong. Instead, most people will double down on the decision and find all sorts of reasons, no matter how far fetched or illogical, to justify it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,190 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Survation.

    CON: 45% (+3)
    LAB: 31% (-2)
    LDEM: 11 (-)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-2)

    Turn out the lights.

    I'm guessing the relentless media assault on Corbyn as a maniac and extremist is paying off.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Strazdas wrote: »
    I'm guessing the relentless media assault on Corbyn as a maniac and extremist is paying off.

    And an 'anti-semite', you'd have to wonder what that is really all about.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,190 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    And an 'anti-semite', you'd have to wonder what that is really all about.

    They probably don't believe any of that stuff themselves (and couldn't give a hoot about Britain's Jewish community).


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

    Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    McGiver wrote: »
    Nobody expects Corbyn to be elected.
    It's either a hung parliament or a tory majority.

    personally i think it would be foolish to assume anything about this election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,190 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

    Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?

    It's shared by their buddies in the right wing press and by many of their voters. Jewish people are decent skins whilst Muslims are bad eggs and "dangerous".

    The cynic would suggest that their Islamophobia is sometimes pursued as a vote winner.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    Strazdas wrote: »
    I'm guessing the relentless media assault on Corbyn as a maniac and extremist is paying off.

    yes there's no question he is a proven electoral liability.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,870 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    While it's true that the British media just perpetually lambast him and really milk the "anti semitism" accusations, why do people immediately assume that Corbyn would be doing much better if the media left him alone?

    It's not like his policies or track record are objectively great and hence it must be the media's fault he's doing poorly. Perhaps his ideas just don't resonate or inspire voters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,667 ✭✭✭quokula


    While it's true that the British media just perpetually lambast him and really milk the "anti semitism" accusations, why do people immediately assume that Corbyn would be doing much better if the media left him alone?

    It's not like his policies or track record are objectively great and hence it must be the media's fault he's doing poorly. Perhaps his ideas just don't resonate or inspire voters.

    Because their policies poll well when you don’t tell people that they’re Labour’s.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

    And it would be pretty strange to think a constant stream of heavily targeted false character assassination would have no impact on his popularity whatsoever.

    Here’s what Lewis Goodall has come to believe from going out and speaking to voters:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202984294752432128?s=20

    The constant stream of propaganda has worked and worn people who haven’t educated themselves down to the point that they hate Corbyn without knowing why. Many of the same tactics were used in the US against Hilary Clinton and worked in exactly the same way, even though she could hardly be more different to Corbyn as a politician.

    And you say his track record isn’t great, but he’s been consistently on the right side of history in the past when you look at his voting record.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    It would certainly be nice if the media there, including the bbc, gave him a fair crack of the whip so we could truly find out how much those policies did cut through. But they won't so we'll likely never really know. Only a couple of days ago british security agents were collaborating with the uks biggest selling newspaper to portray labour members as dangerous radical nutjobs. I am certain that analysts will be looking back in a few years wondering how so much of this was allowed to happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭gooch2k9


    Interesting thing about this election is that tories are behind labour and lib dems when it comes to online advertising spending. At least it was when i last read about it. Labour were racking up £40k per day on Facebook and the like and winning the viral war. I dont know does that mean the tories dont believe its worth spending big sums on but they will be launching a huge online assault over last few days so maybe just a case of keeping their powder dry.


    I read somewhere the Cons are saving 30% of their budget for the last three days(assume today, tomorrow and Wednesday) so we can expect an onslaught of Facebook advertising.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    gooch2k9 wrote:
    I read somewhere the Cons are saving 30% of their budget for the last three days(assume today, tomorrow and Wednesday) so we can expect an onslaught of Facebook advertising.


    Thank God I'm not on it, life's too short to be listening to their crap


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭gooch2k9


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Thank God I'm not on it, life's too short to be listening to their crap


    I don't spend much time on it anymore but have seen a few DUP ads pop up about how they have delivered this and that for the area, completely ignoring the fact that the nurses are on strike because they're being treated differently to the rest of the UK.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭Berserker5


    I wouldn't assume anything yet either

    I think relentlessly pushing the get brexit done message may not be working, deep down do they really want it

    The tide could turn pre election and we could see a coalition


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1203940035210428417?s=19

    Yeah because these are basically the same thing Laura!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭gooch2k9


    Johnson et al are saying there won't be checks between NI and GB. DUP saying HMRC told them there would be. Surely something like that should be easy to clarify and if he is lying report it as such, not just "Boris claims...".


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

    Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?
    Important question - how many of those are British citizens of white complexion? That may reply your question :cool:


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,181 ✭✭✭hometruths


    McGiver wrote: »
    That's wrong. I have personal experience of older people who trust basically everything showing up on the Internet or sent to them via spam email. They've don't have to use Internet frequently at all to further harden and confirm their opinions, which is how Putin style CA electronic propaganda & manipulation work - keep people stuck in their confirmation bias bubbles and amplify it, basically show them what they want to see.

    Surely online echo chambers and confirmation bias bubbles are influencing everybody, young or old, male or female, well educated or not, remain or leave etc?

    i,e if your feed on facebook is full of your friends likeminded opinions and sharing articles etc you are equally likely to have your opinions hardened and confirmed whether or not that starting opinion is "Brexit - Take Back Control" or "Remain - Stronger Together"?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,103 ✭✭✭Mr.Wemmick


    Berserker5 wrote: »
    I wouldn't assume anything yet either

    I think relentlessly pushing the get brexit done message may not be working, deep down do they really want it

    The tide could turn pre election and we could see a coalition

    This is my feeling too. There is a lot of talk here in the UK regarding sources of error in the poll stats so far.. and a lot could happen this week.

    Crossing fingers for Corbyn, hope he does better than expected.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Mr.Wemmick wrote: »
    This is my feeling too. There is a lot of talk here in the UK regarding sources of error in the poll stats so far.. and a lot could happen this week.

    Crossing fingers for Corbyn, hope he does better than expected.

    dont think corbyn has a hope


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,450 ✭✭✭McGiver


    schmittel wrote: »
    Surely online echo chambers and confirmation bias bubbles are influencing everybody, young or old, male or female, well educated or not, remain or leave etc?

    i,e if your feed on facebook is full of your friends likeminded opinions and sharing articles etc you are equally likely to have your opinions hardened and confirmed whether or not that starting opinion is "Brexit - Take Back Control" or "Remain - Stronger Together"?

    Educated people tend to verify their information sources and don't believe every piece of information on the Internet. It's as simple as that. Everyone is prone to echo-chambering but less educated people much more so. This is the key point which is being abused.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

    Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?

    it has been acknowledged and apologised for. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50576508

    According to Johnson and Cleverly a full investigation will start by the end of the year https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50707997


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    schmittel wrote: »
    Surely online echo chambers and confirmation bias bubbles are influencing everybody, young or old, male or female, well educated or not, remain or leave etc?

    i,e if your feed on facebook is full of your friends likeminded opinions and sharing articles etc you are equally likely to have your opinions hardened and confirmed whether or not that starting opinion is "Brexit - Take Back Control" or "Remain - Stronger Together"?

    From what I've read of it, the dom Cummings style of facebook campaigning is a lot more sophisticated than merely bombarding known supporters with random messages and creating an ever cacophonous echo chamber. They basically create a data bank of voters they need to target, groups traditionally hard to reach and probably undecided about their vote and then work them up like kippers. At least thats what they did for vote leave on the referendum.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Aegir wrote: »
    it has been acknowledged and apologised for. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50576508

    According to Johnson and Cleverly a full investigation will start by the end of the year https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50707997

    Boris has refused to apologise for his own islamophobia, homophobia and racism . https://twitter.com/MatesJacob shows how serious the Tories are actually taking islamophobia


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,095 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
    It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,181 ✭✭✭hometruths


    McGiver wrote: »
    Educated people tend to verify their information sources and don't believe every piece of information on the Internet. It's as simple as that. Everyone is prone to echo-chambering but less educated people much more so. This is the key point which is being abused.

    Thick people wrecking it for everybody else. It's as simple as that.

    That must be a fairly depressing point of view to hold, especially with such conviction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    There's been some interesting analysis of poll weighting suggesting the actual Tory lead is as low as 3%. Also the curious fact that they are concentrating resources in their own seats rather than the marginals, which implies they are less confident than most would assume.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,181 ✭✭✭hometruths


    From what I've read of it, the dom Cummings style of facebook campaigning is a lot more sophisticated than merely bombarding known supporters with random messages and creating an ever cacophonous echo chamber. They basically create a data bank of voters they need to target, groups traditionally hard to reach and probably undecided about their vote and then work them up like kippers. At least thats what they did for vote leave on the referendum.

    Yes, for sure there is no doubt Cummings is ahead of the game on this, I am not disputing any of that. And using some pretty grey area tactics legally in terms of personal data etc.

    What I object to is the idea that Putin et al are swinging election results by targetting thick people online.

    To my mind this excuse is masking a much needed critical analysis of what the weaknesses of those losing campaigns, a necessary analysis in order to ensure they do a better job of appealing to the electorate next time.

    Some of the comments on here would have you believe that as long as Putin et al have their IT departments and big budgets there is little point in even holding elections. Sure why bother if the Russians can simply throw money at Cambridge Analytica to get whatever outcome they want?

    I am also confused as to why when Obama harnessed the power of the internet for both fundraising and advertising with extremely targetted messages in 08 and 12 he was a pioneer rather than a manipulator.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    schmittel wrote: »
    Yes, for sure there is no doubt Cummings is ahead of the game on this, I am not disputing any of that. And using some pretty grey area tactics legally in terms of personal data etc.

    What I object to is the idea that Putin et al are swinging election results by targetting thick people online.

    To my mind this excuse is masking a much needed critical analysis of what the weaknesses of those losing campaigns, a necessary analysis in order to ensure they do a better job of appealing to the electorate next time.

    Some of the comments on here would have you believe that as long as Putin et al have their IT departments and big budgets there is little point in even holding elections. Sure why bother if the Russians can simply throw money at Cambridge Analytica to get whatever outcome they want?

    I am also confused as to why when Obama harnessed the power of the internet for both fundraising and advertising with extremely targetted messages in 08 and 12 he was a pioneer rather than a manipulator.

    it is generally accepted that Labour are leading the social media campaign, so it stands to reason that if they are losing, then the first thing social media needs to do is rubbish the oppositions social media.

    The message seems to be listen to us, not them, because they're all Russian bots.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    schmittel wrote: »
    Thick people wrecking it for everybody else. It's as simple as that.

    No, no - as well as the thick people, there are lots of racists, xenophobes and far right wingers.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
    It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969




    That's his theme from today as he personally visits the 'Red Wall' Labour leave voting constituencies.
    They'll lap it up even though I've no doubt Johnson himself thinks it's sh1te.


    Fools be fools.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    droidus wrote: »
    Also the curious fact that they are concentrating resources in their own seats rather than the marginals, which implies they are less confident than most would assume.

    Same pretty much applies to Labour, if you follow the twitters of activists then it's noticeable that a lot of their activity is in <5K majority Labour seats.
    I saw one who casually put it as "I'm out campaigning in Leigh, and the fact I'm in Leigh says it all".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Same pretty much applies to Labour

    Yes, but you'd expect Labour to be on defence if they are way behind in the polls.

    Why are the Tories on defence if they are way up?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Yes, but you'd expect Labour to be on defence if they are way behind in the polls.

    Why are the Tories on defence if they are way up?

    Fair point well made.

    I haven't really been following the Tory side too much.
    I wonder are they just defending high-profiles like Raaab and IDS, or generally defending marginals.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    schmittel wrote: »
    Yes, for sure there is no doubt Cummings is ahead of the game on this, I am not disputing any of that. And using some pretty grey area tactics legally in terms of personal data etc.

    What I object to is the idea that Putin et al are swinging election results by targetting thick people online.

    To my mind this excuse is masking a much needed critical analysis of what the weaknesses of those losing campaigns, a necessary analysis in order to ensure they do a better job of appealing to the electorate next time.

    Some of the comments on here would have you believe that as long as Putin et al have their IT departments and big budgets there is little point in even holding elections. Sure why bother if the Russians can simply throw money at Cambridge Analytica to get whatever outcome they want?

    I am also confused as to why when Obama harnessed the power of the internet for both fundraising and advertising with extremely targetted messages in 08 and 12 he was a pioneer rather than a manipulator.

    Yeah, i get you. I've always thought putin seems to be getting maximum buck for what is often low level trolling. Of course they need to be wary of the old goat, but putin can be a handy means of deflection when you can be sure there's likely plenty of electoral dark arts going on quite without the Russians assistance.

    Data harvesting is where it's at. I'm inclined to think that if the tories are only now cranking their social media machine into fourth gear, its because they have spent weeks, months targeting the precise groups they want and refining the message they need to send to them. Labour do really well with their imaginative, expensively made ads that go viral, but how effective are they outside their traditional voting base? Questionable I'd say.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Peter, an 80 year old undecided voter, is making a name for himself on Victoria Derbyshire show right now. Hates all politicians but is giving it large to Nigel Evans who keeps trying to talk over him as Peter tells him he's a liar. SNP politician got eaten alive earlier, left a gibbering wreck. Angela Rayner managed at least to get some muted applause which means she's probably winning.

    This isn't politics I'm watching, its blood sport.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Latest polls are looking good for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party.

    SURVATION (5-7 Dec)

    CON: 45% (+3)
    LAB: 31% (-2)
    LDEM: 11 (-)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-2)


    Britain Elects has also put up their tracker of Tory and Labour performance over the past week; makes for excellent reading for any Conservative and Brexit supporter.

    With less than 72 hours remaining in the campaign, I really cannot see a way out for the Labour Party now.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203940845050707968


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Biggest car crash interview going on right now with Paul Scully on bbc politics. Shown the widely discussed picture of the child sleeping on a hospital floor in Yorkshire, he actually tries to blame it on labour. Later on, while he is being eviscerated on tory health investment plans, he actually tries to steer the discussion back to the sick child.

    He's now getting torn apart on the tory manifesto pledge to change human rights act. Even the right wing guy on the panel is labelling it "sinister". Its bonkers.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1204017021005885441?s=20


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