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10th Annual White Christmas Thread!
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01-11-2019 10:28am#1Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....
This particular thread turns 10 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!
As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.
The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).
The CFS (a longe range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. And the good news is that over the last 10 days or so the CFS (which updates daily but using data from the previous day I believe) has been showing plenty of cold and snow around over Christmas with several iterations showing snow falling on the big day itself.
However, and unfortunately, that has all changed and at present the CFS shows the following:-
Unfortunately, for the uninitiated, that's a horrible day with heavy rain, strong winds and mildish temps. Yuk.
As most of you will know the big UK weather sites run their own White Christmas pages, some of which have been running since September!
The excellent www.theweatheroutlook.com have their 8th update posted this morning which unfortunately follows the pattern of today's CFS and states:-
"Christmas weather forecast
TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.
The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates have now started.
TheWeatherOutlook says - Update 8: No change to the percentage chance.
The eighth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south.
The latest considerations are:
Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.
October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.
Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.
Chance of snow on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%
Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10
The Computer says
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in the north are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in Scotland are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands
Forecast issued 01/11/2019 06:53:43"
Meanwhile Netweather's famous Santa Shaker Christmas Forecast tool gives the Republic of Ireland an encouraging "zero per cent" change of snow on the big day this year!
Ah well, chin up and all of that. Happily, there are still 53.5 days (or over 1300 hours) still to go so there are many, many model runs to go between now and then to post here - at least some of which will undoubtedly hold out the promise of white gold.
Until then, here's a pic courtesy of the journal.ie of the last big white Christmas in 2004...25
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Always liked this thread.
I'm predicting I will wake up to a foot of snow christmas morning which will quickly accumulate to a foot and a half as we sit for christmas dinner. (Yes Ireland)
The south west not doing quiet as well. They will just have to settle for a foot of snow.
Word of warning though I have been wrong once before
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A few inches of snow will make the place Christmassy.
So you will all be happy helping us old ones get to Mass and to families! Christmas is in the heart as well... Means a lot to folk #to get out that day!
Not that our wishes count for anything
Just a pretty inch? Then after St stephens. let it rip!0 -
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That actually may well have been white! The CFS is a long range weather model. As with anything very longe range its accuracy is, em..., open to question shall we say.Yup very green, but no white, very interesting....(I need to read up on what a CFS does)
Anyway, to show just how fickle it is, here is today's iteration showing a roughly 15c increase in upper air temperature from the one posted above! This would certainly be a green christmas....
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nacho libre wrote: »Guilty:pac:
Well, to be honest i'd settle for one or two prolonged heavy snow showers on Christmas Eve from 10 till midnight, so there was a good covering on the ground. I would go to bed happy then.
Followed by blizzards all Christmas day. No mother in law
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Bit of a yikes forecast from the CFS today. It shows seriously mild weather taking over for some time from around 20 December onwards. See below. Miles away still obviously so could be wildly inaccurate. The (slightly) more reliable GFS will start to show forecasts for the Xmas period from early December so we are maybe 10 days away from a bit more reliability. That said, for the last number of years, the Christmas period has looked doomed to be mild from a long way out so fingers crossed that doesn't happen again. Well due a cold (and hopefully white) one.
Pressure
Day time temps
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Reckless Abandonment wrote: »Followed by blizzards all Christmas day. No mother in law
The feeling is probably reciprocated With the two of you hoping for blizzards?
For me it can snow or whatever after 18th as that is when the last of my supplies will be ferried in. lol0 -
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Paddy Power 4/1 for Dublin, I might have a little bet I think
Just looked at PP website. Criteria seems to just be that it snows on Christmas day (no mention of amount). Assume it would be for the Met station at Dublin airport to verify.
How many days in winter (1/12 to 28/2) would meet that criteria typically though? I reckon about 3 or 4 at best in an average winter (even allowing for that snow to stick / fall overnight and be washed away before the morning by rain, etc). Thus 4-1 seems fairly ungenerous to me accordingly! That said I'm aware of this stat that it has apparently snowed on average 1 Christmas day out of 7 at Dublin airport since records began. Hard to rationalise that isn't it?0 -
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I remember that Christmas Day snowfall in 2004(?) - It was like the perfect kind of snowfall it fell on Christmas eve, I remember looking out the window and seeing a fox walking passed the backdoor
Then a lovely covering for a Christmas morning walk and it faded into the evening. Just the right amount.
2009 we had lots of lovely soft snow here too. 2010 was snowy but it had compacted to slippy ice and that made two years in a row with no electric or running water on Christmas day. So I was getting over the noveltly value
Yep, I'd enjoy a return of 2004's snow just for the magic.0 -
In 3 days, FI Charts will take us up to Christmas day so we can get a much better idea how the big day itself will pan out.
The CFS is currently showing mild south-westerlies over Ireland for Christmas Day with a big area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic. This will of course change as this is 3 weeks out.
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GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.
This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.0 -
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GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.
This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.
Really hope so Gonzo. Do not want a repeat of Christmas 2011 & 2015 when temperatures hit 13/14 degrees on Christmas Day. When will the weather gods give us a cold crisp Christmas??0 -
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GFS FI now takes us to Christmas eve. Looking very mild with south-westerlies taken over from 21 December. Most of Europe looks very mild by the 24th with air coming up from the Canary Islands over the UK and Ireland. 13 or 14C across Ireland could easily be reached if this was to verify. If there were a few sunny breaks somewhere east of the Wicklow Mountains could get to 15C.
This is still over 2 weeks away so may be very different by the time we get to Christmas.
Of course nothing set in stone but it is incredible how often this has happened over the last 10 years. Appears almost non random that this plume of warm air arrives from Iberia this time most years.0 -
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Christmas Day has now made it into FI so we can get a better idea what the day has in store for us.
Looks very mild or even warm, if this chart was to verify, it could bring some of the warmest conditions we've had since October. Winds are coming up from Morocco/Canary Islands and the +8C uppers over the country
An area of high pressure is closeby over the UK, which could produce a frosty night if skies were clear enough, but temperatures could shoot up into the low to mid teens in many places during the day.0 -
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