Super Typhoon Hagibis threatens Japan

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2019 10:09pm

Weakened to 125 knits now in the latest update as shear and dry air start to have an effect. update landfall a smidgen further easy again.

Rebelbrowser · 10-10-2019 11:07pm

But looks to be arriving a few hours later too which heightens risk of Japan match cancellation

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 12:24am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

But looks to be arriving a few hours later too which heightens risk of Japan match cancellation

No, still around the same time as always. The latest JTWC has it 6 NM from Yokozuka (about 20 km south of Yokohama) at 13Z on Saturday.

Rebelbrowser · 11-10-2019 12:28am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No, still around the same time as always. The latest JTWC has it 6 NM from Yokozuka (about 20 km south of Yokohama) at 13Z on Saturday.

Is 13Z UTC or local?

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 12:39am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Is 13Z UTC or local?

UTC. Japan time us UTC + 10

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 12:46am

The upper outflow bands are now well over Japan.

20191010.2300.himawari8.x.wv1km.20WHAGIBIS.125kts-929mb-263N-1386E.100pc.jpg

There is about a 150-NM tongue of much lower ocean heat content for the centre to cross in the final hours before landfall. We should see a very torn and semi-transitioned system by that stage, with the worst of the winds to the east of the large metropolis of Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama.

igCorcaigh · 11-10-2019 1:03am

Is it going to hit Tokyo?

M.T. Cranium · 11-10-2019 7:23am

Looks close to going over the southeast corner of Honshu, Tokyo may be on the northwest side of the circulation at its closest approach Saturday evening local time. Would imply weather conditions for Tokyo of northeast winds 70-120 km/hr with 20-50 mm rainfalls. Some places further south could see top gusts of 150 km/hr and 40-80 mm rainfalls. The eye might make a landfall but may just miss larger population centres by a few miles, obviously a bit far out to be that precise but the way it's recurving I think the chances are greater that it misses Tokyo south than a direct hit. That might not necessarily be a good thing, a similar typhoon made a direct hit last year I believe, and the interaction with mountains tends to fragment the rain shield and even the stronger winds at times, but a strong northeast wind would probably be less subject to disruption and the rain amounts to the north of these storm tracks can be more uniform (therefore not hit or miss).

pauldry · 11-10-2019 7:23am

It will hit Tokyo with heavy rain and winds in the region of 70 mph. It would certainly be a Red day here at home.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 7:41am

The latest JTWC track has it right in Tokyo Bay at 12Z tomorrow at 80 kts. The main metropolis just a few miles to its NW. The 64-kt wind radii are only valid over open water, but gusts should still be in the 80-90-kt range.

wp202019.19101018.gif

The structure now shows it totally open on its southern side, though standard satellite imagery gives the false impression that it's still intact as it's only seeing the upper cirrus shield.

37 GHz (shows low cloud and rain)

89 GHz colour (shows deep convection in red).

20191011.0359.gcomw1.x.colorpct_89h_89v.20WHAGIBIS.120kts-927mb-274N-1380E.095pc.jpg

Latest wind field shows max wind 104 kts 18 NM to the NE of the centre.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 7:52am

TAF for Tokyo Haneda airport, which sticks out into the western coast of Tokyo Bay and very close to Yokohama. Wind getting up to southerly 50 gust 70 kts from 09Z tomorrow.

Valid up to 12Z tomorrow.

TAF RJTT 110505Z 1106/1212 01016KT 8000 FEW008 BKN015
BECMG 1109/1111 4000 SHRA BR FEW005 BKN008
TEMPO 1118/1200 2000 +SHRA BR FEW003 BKN005
BECMG 1121/1200 08020KT
BECMG 1209/1212 16050G70KT
TEMPO 1209/1212 2000 +SHRA BR

Live data from the very dense Japanese station network here. All speeds are in m/s.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/206.html?elementCode=1

Nemesis · 11-10-2019 8:00am

Can Typhoons (very low pressure) increase chances of earthquake activity?.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 8:01am

Nemesis wrote: »

Can Typhoons (very low pressure) increase chances of earthquake activity?.

No

Villain · 11-10-2019 8:30am

HighLine wrote: »

Stunning photo.. where do you find that imagery if you don't mind me asking?

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/himawari-3g/clipping/

Latest image:

pauldry · 11-10-2019 10:13am

I think the Scots may be ok

munsterlegend · 11-10-2019 10:56am

pauldry wrote: »

I think the Scots may be ok

Why do you think that? Change of path/weakening?

Villain · 11-10-2019 11:22am

pauldry wrote: »

I think the Scots may be ok

I wouldn’t be so sure, I think flooding might be a real issue!

ednwireland · 11-10-2019 11:26am

Nemesis wrote: »

Can Typhoons (very low pressure) increase chances of earthquake activity?.

only if you nuke them ( sorry couldnt resist)

munsterlegend · 11-10-2019 11:31am

Villain wrote: »

I wouldn’t be so sure, I think flooding might be a real issue!

Was looking that there could be up to 150 mm in that region Saturday/Sunday.

Rebelbrowser · 11-10-2019 11:43am

ednwireland wrote: »

only if you nuke them ( sorry couldnt resist)

Its only hurricanes you can nuke, not typhoons.

pauldry · 11-10-2019 1:31pm

Forgot the rains sorry Scotland but if they really wanted it played they could cover the pitch somehow n play. By Sunday it will be gone. But of course Japan want it cancelled

Anyways who cares. The best 2 teams in it await in quaters so Japs Scots or Us are all going home

pauldry · 11-10-2019 5:29pm

Typhoon showing weakening. Eye gone but still a lot of destructive winds and rain in it. I still think it wont be half as bad as made out. Maybe 100mm of rain which Newport in Ireland survived about a year ago in 24 hours. Winds probably decreasing quickly after initially 75 knots on landfall

M.T. Cranium · 11-10-2019 7:25pm

Just posting a link here to a real-time map of airport METARs in the region, will edit this post once I see what the link actually shows you.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar?zoom=8&lat=35&lon=140&layers=B00FFTFFFFFTT&plottype=model&scale=1&density=0&metric=false&decoded=false&taf=false

Okay, so it does show the area I wanted to zoom in on, if you want a wider view, just click on the -- symbol in the upper left corner.

(note if you want to use this link for other parts of the world, go into the URL and find "lat=" and "long=" where you can change those values to get the region you want. Remember that in this system, west longitudes have a minus sign, at the moment I have set it to long=140 for 140E long. And southern hemisphere latitudes would be negative also. And before those parameters is the zoom= feature which you can reset, I have it at zoom=8, where zoom=6 would show you most of Japan and zoom=4 most of eastern Asia. Or you can just drag your cursor around the map and move it manually, to do that quickly zoom out to a very wide shot until your target is centred. I had to fiddle with this because it is linked from the KMSP home page on NWS and naturally set to show their part of the world in the fixed link.)

If it's anything like southeast U.S. coastal grazing situations, the precise track could be off by 20-40 miles so would not take any forecast track as carved in stone. This is basically like Tokyo is Wilmington NC and Hagibis is Dorian (as it existed there) but with mountains instead of flat swampy coastland. (Dorian passed just off to the south of Wilmington and made a partial landfall in eastern NC).

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 7:52pm

TAF forTokyo Haneda airport, on the west coast of Tokyo Bay. 70 gusting 90 knots between 12-15Z.

TAF RJTT 111707Z 1118/1300 05020KT 6000 -SHRA FEW005 BKN008
TEMPO 1118/1203 2000 +SHRA BR FEW003 BKN005
BECMG 1120/1122 08020KT 4000 SHRA BR
BECMG 1209/1212 17050G70KT 2000 +SHRA BR FEW030 SCT060
TEMPO 1212/1215 20070G90KT
BECMG 1215/1218 29018KT 9999 NSW

Narita airport (RJAA), inland northeast of Tokyo, has 60 gust 90 kt.

Here's another page with all the Japanese airports.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/kuko/

Meteorite58 · 11-10-2019 7:53pm

Thought this was interesting

https://twitter.com/MetOffice_Sci/status/1182681380381171715?s=20

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 8:56pm

Latest scans show the main convective band now over the Japanese mainland. Radar is showing some moderate spots of rain and stations are showing hourly totals of around 10-15 mm. This is probably the heaviest the rain will get.

20191011.1813.f15.x.composite.20WHAGIBIS.105kts-943mb-308N-1371E.065pc.jpg

20191011.1813.f15.x.composite.20WHAGIBIS.105kts-943mb-308N-1371E.065pc.jpg

Radar

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 9:10pm

Latest windfield.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2019 10:27pm

Live streams from Shibuya, Tokyo. Wind already getting up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzRsPhfJqx4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7DgDBUIqr0

igCorcaigh · 11-10-2019 10:40pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Thought this was interesting

Wow, doesn't that just show how interconnected the climate system is!

igCorcaigh · 11-10-2019 10:43pm

Is this currently looking quite bad for the regions to be affected? I haven't been keeping a close eye on this.

From BBC:

"It could be the strongest storm the country has faced since Kanogawa Typhoon in 1958, which left more than 1,200 people dead or missing."

M.T. Cranium · 12-10-2019 1:30am

Sounds a bit drastic to me, but most deaths in Asian landfalls are from flooding, in particular sudden flash flooding from mountain fed rivers and streams. Given that this one is moving through an urban area with over ten million people, I suppose nothing could be ruled out, but it's not the strongest typhoon to make a landfall since then by any stretch, it's barely going to be a cat-1 in terms we are more familiar with. I don't think it will be a lot stronger than Ophelia making landfall near Cork. But as to the effects of 12-24 hours of heavy rainfall, more of an unknown and much depends on whether some particular river goes on a rampage (and whether defenses are prepared). Since it's going to keep raining heavily until at least 15z which is late Saturday evening there, some heavy damage is possible in those regions between Tokyo and the outer coasts. But recent similar hits on Taiwan have produced casualty totals more like 10 to 100 than 1200. Wind damage unlikely to be catastrophic especially in a country with building codes anticipating this strength of wind on an annual basis.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 9:07am

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Is this currently looking quite bad for the regions to be affected? I haven't been keeping a close eye on this.

From BBC:

"It could be the strongest storm the country has faced since Kanogawa Typhoon in 1958, which left more than 1,200 people dead or missing."

Not quite true. NHK are saying that the JMA have said it could be on a par with the strongest "in the Kanto/Izu region". So the country has faced stronger, just that in this region the 1958 one was the strongest. More sloppy reporting.

Latest winds

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 9:20am

Kozushima airport is gusting 87 knots in the past hour, mean speed 57 knots.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-44216.html?groupCode=30&areaCode=000#link

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 9:28am

Current intensity is 85 knots and should be 75-80 kts at landfall in a couple of hours.

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/

PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI) DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WITH DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SHALLOWER RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AMSI AND RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW/RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/5.0 (77-90 KTS). HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AROUND 25-26 CELSIUS ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE. TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, JUST POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS.

3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TY 20W WILL SHIFT ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). LANDFALL OVER HONSHU SHOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO TAU 6. SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL, ETT SHOULD BEGIN AND COMPLETION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE 75-80 KTS AT LANDFALL. HIGH VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND COOL SST SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

// NNNN

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 9:51am

Latest radar. Hakone (855 m amsl, in southwest Kanagawa prefecture) had broken its all-time record earlier, receiving 643 mm in 24 hours.

The F1 circuit in Suzuka, on the west side of that bay due south of the "日' in the title), is getting away relatively lightly, with a few 10s of mm of rainfall and winds of 20-25 knots.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 10:21am

Live NHK news coverage is on Sky channel 507. Some very swollen rivers now. One dead so far.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 10:27am

They'e now saying there's just been an earthquake offshore to the southeast but there is no danger of a tsunami. That's all they need...

bmcc10 · 12-10-2019 10:28am

Ye earthquake in Chiba they've had it rough this past month

Itssoeasy · 12-10-2019 10:28am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Live NHK news coverage is on Sky channel 507. Some very swollen rivers now. One dead so far.

They are reporting there's been an earthquake off the coast of Japan and it was "intensity 4 and 3" along a good area. They are asking people to move away from the coast. Just watching their coverage and looking at instagram stories of people in Japan for the f1 Grand Prix it not nice in Japan.

schmoo2k · 12-10-2019 11:11am

Wind just starting to hit "red" on the mainland: Live winds - http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/206.html?elementCode=1

Oneiric 3 · 12-10-2019 11:51am

Latest satellite sequence:

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 12:33pm

These are some hourly rainfall totals, even if it is a mountain station! :eek:

mrtom · 12-10-2019 12:36pm

945 Hpa

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zo1knhhpqaaw2t0/Thphoon%20Hagabis.mp4?dl=0

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 12:52pm

Latest mean winds (in m/s) around the Tokyo region.

Meanwhile, Fukuoka's getting a light northeasterly breeze of around 6 m/s.

andymx11 · 12-10-2019 2:18pm

Is the worst over ???

schmoo2k · 12-10-2019 4:01pm

andymx11 wrote: »

Is the worst over ???

I would say so:

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 4:12pm

Peak wind at Tokyo Haneda airport was 67 gust 84 knots at 12Z.

METAR RJTT 121200Z 17067G85KT 1500 R16R/1100V1600N R22/0900V1500N R16L/1300N R23/0325V0750N SHRA BR FEW006 BKN007 BKN015 23/22 Q0967 NOSIG=

Now it's down to just 12 knots. Rain is the problem.

https://www.ogimet.com/display_metars2.php?lang=en&lugar=Rjtt&tipo=ALL&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&ano=2019&mes=10&day=11&hora=15&anof=2019&mesf=10&dayf=12&horaf=15&minf=59&send=send

caff · 12-10-2019 4:19pm

andymx11 wrote: »

Is the worst over ???

Only halfway from news coverage here

M.T. Cranium · 12-10-2019 5:56pm

Just watching news here, an eyewitness account from south of Tokyo seemed to be saying that a damaging tornado occurred fairly early in the event, like maybe Saturday morning local time. That resulted in a few casualties. Otherwise so far no reports of any other deaths but from those rainfall reports in the mountains some severe flooding must be underway you would think. The centre of the circulation appeared to go right over Tokyo about 14-15z.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2019 7:34pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just watching news here, an eyewitness account from south of Tokyo seemed to be saying that a damaging tornado occurred fairly early in the event, like maybe Saturday morning local time. That resulted in a few casualties. Otherwise so far no reports of any other deaths but from those rainfall reports in the mountains some severe flooding must be underway you would think. The centre of the circulation appeared to go right over Tokyo about 14-15z.

NHK showed the video this morning. It didn't say there were any casualties, though.

The flooding is the big thing alright. Looks like Kanagawa and Shizuoka prefectures got it worst, with plenty of rivers at critical levels earlier. Hakone (855 amsl) in Kanagawa already had over 800 mm storm total a few hours ago.

Super Typhoon Hagibis threatens Japan

Comments