Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

maquiladora · 09-12-2015 10:38pm

Not exactly much support on the ECM ensembles for that 985mb low west of Ireland at 96 hours that was on the operational. The mean looks more like the GFS operational.

Oneiric 3 · 09-12-2015 10:39pm

At first glance, the raw DMI HIRLAM 18z run has the warm front slightly further south than the ECM at Friday 06hrs.

maquiladora · 09-12-2015 10:54pm

18Z GFS has shifted north!

18Z GFS has taken the 12Z ECM route... #drama

Gonzo · 09-12-2015 10:55pm

temps look too high for any lying snow on saturday, sleet and snow falling onto wet ground can't be ruled out but more importantly the amount of rain that will fall is the important issue.

leahyl · 09-12-2015 11:02pm

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS has shifted north!

18Z GFS has taken the 12Z ECM route... #drama

Which means?? Still heavy rain for South??

maquiladora · 09-12-2015 11:09pm

leahyl wrote: »

Which means?? Still heavy rain for South??

12Z GFS has 115mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.
18Z GFS has 37mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.

Basically, impossible to forecast while the models are doing this.

leahyl · 09-12-2015 11:10pm

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS has 115mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.
18Z GFS has 37mm over Cork at 6pm Sunday.

Basically, impossible to forecast while the models are doing this.

Wow that's some difference alright!

maquiladora · 09-12-2015 11:16pm

Basically, more rain over the west and midlands, a lot less rain over the south. But it'll probably change again on the 0Z. :rolleyes:

km79 · 09-12-2015 11:24pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Basically, more rain over the west and midlands, a lot less rain over the south. But it'll probably change again on the 0Z. :rolleyes:

when is the next round of bad news ?

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2015 11:25pm

Shifts north or south will have the least impact on Clare, Limerick, north Kerry, south Galway and that region is already more or less into a level two alert situation, with level three overtones. Cork remains problematic but as most drainage there is from northwest to southeast, actual rainfall amounts over the south and east of the county are not the only factor in play for flood potential.

Villain · 09-12-2015 11:27pm

Never trust the pub run

There is a lot of uncertainty but the Met forecast for Saturday on met.ie has been pretty much the same on each update:

Saturday: Cloudy over south Munster and south Leinster with outbreaks of rain on Saturday morning and cold and frosty with icy patches elsewhere. The band of rain in the south may move northwards and turn to sleet or snow for a time. Frost is likely again in northern parts on Saturday night, but it will become milder in the south.

aisling86 · 09-12-2015 11:28pm

Do we think the charts will keep flipping? What's the most reliable?

Villain · 09-12-2015 11:28pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Shifts north or south will have the least impact on Clare, Limerick, north Kerry, south Galway and that region is already more or less into a level two alert situation, with level three overtones. Cork remains problematic but as most drainage there is from northwest to southeast, actual rainfall amounts over the south and east of the county are not the only factor in play for flood potential.

High tides may cause issues for Cork though?

maquiladora · 09-12-2015 11:34pm

Villain wrote: »

Never trust the pub run

There is a lot of uncertainty but the Met forecast for Saturday on met.ie has been pretty much the same on each update:

That part of the forecast usually only updates once at day at around 5am.

Oneiric 3 · 09-12-2015 11:39pm

If the trend continues towards a more northern route and track of this front, this will only add to the flooding problems along the Shannon which are already most severely hit as heavy rain in the regions such as the GFS & ECM are showing tonight willl have more impact downstream. Not something that those who are dealing with severe flooding already want to hear.

Rock Lesnar · 09-12-2015 11:44pm

Ah boll*x, i looked in here at 7 this morning, it seemed grand and quiet, i look in here now and i see charts for the weekend that possibly shows a lot of rain for north meath that i cant take.

Just feck off Rain

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2015 11:52pm

Yes, the higher tides would be another problem factor that won't help anywhere, the issue being that rivers slow down their discharge (backing up from tidewater) as they meet the higher tides.

I also agree that the 18z GFS run sometimes misses the mark so that the 00z runs will be where we might expect to find better consensus developing. It would be great to wake up (if any of you actually sleep) to better news but there seems no way out of this inevitable rebound frontal situation looking upstream.

Irish Steve · 09-12-2015 11:53pm

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Ah boll*x, i looked in here at 7 this morning, it seemed grand and quiet, i look in here now and i see charts for the weekend that possibly shows a lot of rain for north meath that i cant take.

Just feck off Rain

Have to admit that the potential for significant rain in Meath has me like a bear with a sore head, probably because of the history of flooding here, and a combination the local authority and Irish Water that can't get off their collective a**es to DO something about issues that were reported to them over 10 years ago.

Right now, the thought of 60 plus mm of rain this weekend has me scared witless, as I don't know what more I can do to try and stop yet another flood event.

What I do know is that if we are flooded yet again, we won't see a single stuffed suit from Irish Water within 100 miles of here, yet it's a piece of pipe that they are responsible for that is our biggest risk factor.

maquiladora · 10-12-2015 12:00am

Starting to get into the range of some higher res models now. 18Z ARPEGE shows the core of the front approaching the southwest coast early Saturday morning.

Rock Lesnar · 10-12-2015 12:00am

Irish Steve wrote: »

Have to admit that the potential for significant rain in Meath has me like a bear with a sore head, probably because of the history of flooding here, and a combination the local authority and Irish Water that can't get off their collective a**es to DO something about issues that were reported to them over 10 years ago.

Right now, the thought of 60 plus mm of rain this weekend has me scared witless, as I don't know what more I can do to try and stop yet another flood event.

What I do know is that if we are flooded yet again, we won't see a single stuffed suit from Irish Water within 100 miles of here, yet it's a piece of pipe that they are responsible for that is our biggest risk factor.

Not with irish water so cant comment on them but don't get me started on the local authority, rang 3 times last weekend, yeah somebody will be out i was told, still waiting to see them

Rock Lesnar · 10-12-2015 12:03am

maquiladora wrote: »

Starting to get into the range of some higher res models now. 18Z ARPEGE shows the core of the front approaching the southwest coast early Saturday morning.

Maq i know its still a fair bit away and anything can change, but in your opinion, will we get a lot of rain in north leinster

Oneiric 3 · 10-12-2015 12:07am

Meteoblue model out to Sat 12z. Sort of a halfway house.

maquiladora · 10-12-2015 12:20am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Maq i know its still a fair bit away and anything can change, but in your opinion, will we get a lot of rain in north leinster

Afraid I just couldn't tell you. You are not as likely to see extreme rainfall as the southwest or west, but over the next 10 days or so I'd expect you might see 40-60mm, maybe more, but probably not less. That's not much more than a guess though.

Oneiric 3 · 10-12-2015 12:25am

EC ensemble mean run Vs op run (dotted isobars) for Saturday 12z

The op run has the warm front (fat, badly drawn front) further north than the mean showed (thin, badly drawn warm front), so I think going from this that rain band positioning for Saturday is far from resolved yet. On to the 00z runs.

Oneiric 3 · 10-12-2015 12:46am

GSM 18z. Also further north than 12z

I don't know who or what runs the GSM model, but it often seems remarkably similar to GFS outputs on a run by run basis.

snowstreams · 10-12-2015 1:07am

I think it's more worrying if the rain ends up further north. That map above looks quite similar to Desmond.
The west Midlands can't take much more rain at this stage. Any more and the 2009 flood records will probably be broken.

Irish Steve · 10-12-2015 1:14am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Not with irish water so cant comment on them but don't get me started on the local authority, rang 3 times last weekend, yeah somebody will be out i was told, still waiting to see them

I know where you're coming from, the favourite trick in previous times with MCC was to not reply to letters, on the basis that if it's not written, ir didn't happen, and that's where E-mail is now so much more effective, in that there's proof that it was sent, and if they don't reply, there is at least proof of the contact.

That said, while the permanent staff of MCC are a nightmare to deal with, the people at the sharp end on the ground are as good as the system will let them be, and in a different vein, one of our local concillors has been incredibly good in both trying to make sure issues have been dealt with, and with pushing to get things done, but he's up against a culture in the permanent staff that came straight out of "Yes Minister", I've sat in on the local area meetings over the last 12 months, and some of the attitudes I see from the full time staff beggar description.

All I can do at the moment is make sure all my protection systems are ready, and operational, and hope that we don't get too much rain in too short a period of time. I somehow don't think I will be sleeping much this weekend!

pauldry · 10-12-2015 2:39am

Dont think this will be a Desmond..

It will be a wet weekend with 40mm about of rain but Desmond was 2,500km of rain ....this systems just a regular heavy rain job though admittedly slowmoving.

Natonstan · 10-12-2015 3:23am

I've been trying to keep up with all these weather updates, I'm flying home from America on the 23rd (landing in Dublin early Christmas Eve), it's probably too early to predict at this stage but do you reckon we'll run into delays if things remain the same as they have over the past few days?

Gaoth Laidir · 10-12-2015 7:19am

I don't know who or what runs the GSM model, but it often seems remarkably similar to GFS outputs on a run by run basis.

GSM stands for Global Spectral Model and is run by the Japanese Met Agency.

Villain · 10-12-2015 8:13am

Further north again on 00z which is bad news for Western areas but good news for the South

elastico · 10-12-2015 8:22am

Natonstan wrote: »

I've been trying to keep up with all these weather updates, I'm flying home from America on the 23rd (landing in Dublin early Christmas Eve), it's probably too early to predict at this stage but do you reckon we'll run into delays if things remain the same as they have over the past few days?

Far too early.

maquiladora · 10-12-2015 8:31am

More changes on the 0Z runs.

GFS has moved even further north, with only counties in the west/northwest seeing heavy rain (up to around 100mm) over the weekend.

UKMO has the rain further south.

ECM is a tad further south than it's last run, but the west still gets the worst of it.

GEM looks similar to the UKMO

The GFS operational run may have the rain a little too far north this time I think.

km79 · 10-12-2015 9:22am

another weekend ruined
only one left before Xmas
whats the bets it will be wet !

legomaniac · 10-12-2015 9:24am

Thankfully the threat of more extreme flooding this weekend has passed. Both Met Eireann's and MTC's forecasts have been greatly downgraded. Hopefully I'll see a few flakes on Saturday, albeit wet ones!

km79 · 10-12-2015 9:27am

legomaniac wrote: »

Thankfully the threat of more extreme flooding this weekend has passed. Both Met Eireann's and MTC's forecasts have been greatly downgraded. Hopefully I'll see a few flakes on Saturday, albeit wet ones!

really ? Mtcs is still saying up to 100mm in places and Met Eireann will do what they did last weekend.........major upgrade 12 hours before it starts

leahyl · 10-12-2015 9:41am

legomaniac wrote: »

Thankfully the threat of more extreme flooding this weekend has passed. Both Met Eireann's and MTC's forecasts have been greatly downgraded. Hopefully I'll see a few flakes on Saturday, albeit wet ones!

?? They have?? I don't think the Met Eireann one was "upgraded" to be "downgraded"!

maquiladora · 10-12-2015 9:57am

The risk of severe flooding in the south has definitely been greatly reduced since yesterday.

Beyond that I wouldn't make any concrete predictions at this stage since there are still changes every time the models are updated.

km79 · 10-12-2015 10:08am

maquiladora wrote: »

The risk of severe flooding in the south has definitely been greatly reduced since yesterday.

Beyond that I wouldn't make any concrete predictions at this stage since there are still changes every time the models are updated.

If it keeps shifting north the worst might just clip the coast

munsterlegend · 10-12-2015 10:23am

km79 wrote: »

If it keeps shifting north the worst might just clip the coast

Big changes from yesterday afternoon alright. This afternoon will probably have a better handle on the rain's exact path but the South looks out of the firing line for now. The River Shannon counties could do without any more rainfall.

my3cents · 10-12-2015 10:24am

Can't really take much more rain here (South coast near Waterford), anything over 40mm in day and we can flood. Its location location location but with added moisture, just don't tell me all that rain is going to come with a southerly storm which at high tide can add another couple of feet to the water level. Sunday 13th isn't a really high tide but the highest tide for the month.

If it keeps going north thats good news for me.

Rock Lesnar · 10-12-2015 10:26am

What about the north east, will we be effected by it moving north

km79 · 10-12-2015 10:34am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

What about the north east, will we be effected by it moving north

it's shifting more to affect west\north west so good for you bad for us at moment

maquiladora · 10-12-2015 10:50am

06Z GFS has shifted the heaviest rain a bit further south again. This is more in line with the ECM now.

gfs-2-54.png?6

km79 · 10-12-2015 10:54am

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS has shifted the heaviest rain a bit further south again. This is more in line with the ECM now.

directly in the firing line now
great

ninebeanrows · 10-12-2015 10:56am

A dangerous scenario setting up for parts of Ireland in the coming days, with exceptional rainfall totals expected, compounding flooding issues.

Severe flood warnings are likely. It does not look good.

northgirl · 10-12-2015 10:59am

Are we still looking at severe alert for Cork area? I know it's a little early and keeps changing.

cherryghost · 10-12-2015 11:02am

northgirl wrote: »

Are we still looking at severe alert for Cork area? I know it's a little early and keeps changing.

So far no. It looks like West and Midlands will get 50-100mm over the weekend, adding more pressure to possible Shannon overflow. It can all easily change. It's changed so much since yesterday.

maquiladora · 10-12-2015 11:10am

06Z GFS shows max of about 90mm by Monday morning.

Villain · 10-12-2015 11:10am

Latest charts show issues for Galway and Clare but this an evolving situation, the charts will change on each run.

Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

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