Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Graces7 · 05-02-2019 9:40am

Just been out for my early morning walk... windblown rain in my face, all the ocean shrouded in rain-haar.... Bracing is the word and I really enjoyed it... "down for the day" the old ones would say.. accidental rhyming there...

VERY glad I went out when I did... deluging here now and dark... west mayo offshore ark

Billcarson · 05-02-2019 10:28am

KingJeremy wrote: »

Seriously though...DOES anyone know why the seasons are taught as they are in school here & not as they should be (in line with the meteorological season)?

Because seasons taught in school are the Celtic seasons. Winter being Nov Dec and Jan. Spring feb March April etc.

Artane2002 · 05-02-2019 10:41am

The muck is back. Go away, nobody missed you.

Rock Lesnar · 05-02-2019 10:50am

Absolutely bucketing down here, yesterday's sunny day already seems so long ago

Graces7 · 05-02-2019 12:05pm

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Absolutely bucketing down here, yesterday's sunny day already seems so long ago

" Ah yes, I remember it well!" and the same here,,, a deluge of epic proportions.

Back to hibernation, me thinks!

DOCARCH · 05-02-2019 12:13pm

Bucketing in Dublin 16 too now.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 12:34pm

horrendous day here at Dunshaughlin. Pouring rain, dark, heating and lights on.

If this is how the majority of February is going to play out then just fast forward me to May.

I'm really not enjoying Winter 2018/2019.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 12:43pm

this mornings GFS is an incredibly mild outlook into the far reaches of FI.

The ensembles are showing temperatures of between 0 and 10C at 850 hPA, if high pressure and sunshine combined with winds up from the Canaries or Sahara desert during some of those days, temperatures of 15 or 16C wouldn't be out of the question.

If it's not going to snow, i'd settle for very mild, dry and sunny, rather than all the muck of the next 7 to 10 days.

sryanbruen · 05-02-2019 12:58pm

Gonzo wrote: »

this mornings GFS is an incredibly mild outlook into the far reaches of FI.

The ensembles are showing temperatures of between 0 and 10C at 850 hPA, if high pressure and sunshine combined with winds up from the Canaries or Sahara desert during some of those days, temperatures of 15 or 16C wouldn't be out of the question.

If it's not going to snow, i'd settle for very mild, dry and sunny, rather than all the muck of the next 7 to 10 days.

Wouldn’t be that sunny though except for England. Would be cloudy crap especially for the west.

Damp in Dublin 3 as was expected.

The outlook isn’t too bad for my area.

SleetAndSnow · 05-02-2019 1:23pm

Was an awful morning in cork city. Really heavy rain (heaviest I've seen in quite a while). Been a mix of drizzle and rain since

loughside · 05-02-2019 1:28pm

been lashing up North all morning, tho` see a clearance in from the West just now...
.btw is there a problem with Netweather Radar? Don`t have that overlay of precipitation etc, just the bare map??

DOCARCH · 05-02-2019 1:38pm

Rain seems to have passed, for now, in Dublin 16. 2.4mm Melting! 11.4c atm.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 2:34pm

rain stopped here too, hopefully can catch a quick walk in the afternoon.

Xenji · 05-02-2019 3:16pm

A dark miserable day in Castlebar with continuous rain since early morning, close to 10mm so far.

SleetAndSnow · 05-02-2019 3:30pm

Lashing in cork city again

Oscar Bravo · 05-02-2019 3:46pm

Drier ,brighter conditions not far off the west coast now.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 3:47pm

Gav's latest video looking at the ECM models for the rest of February now show a mild theme dominating throughout February. He describes all the long range models over the past 2 months as an 'epic fail'. I couldn't agree more. I get the feeling many people are done with this winter and just want to move onto Spring/Summer at this stage.

Loughc · 05-02-2019 4:04pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Gav's latest video looking at the ECM models for the rest of February now show a mild theme dominating throughout February. He describes all the long range models over the past 2 months as an 'epic fail'. I couldn't agree more. I get the feeling many people are done with this winter and just want to move onto Spring/Summer at this stage.

Yep completely agree on both accounts!

Graces7 · 05-02-2019 4:36pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Drier ,brighter conditions not far off the west coast now.

Indeed yes! Thank you!

sryanbruen · 05-02-2019 4:57pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Gav's latest video looking at the ECM models for the rest of February now show a mild theme dominating throughout February. He describes all the long range models over the past 2 months as an 'epic fail'. I couldn't agree more. I get the feeling many people are done with this winter and just want to move onto Spring/Summer at this stage.

At this stage in the season, I agree. Even one model that was showing a mild and zonal Winter (German DWD model) was very wrong and there has been a lot of anticyclonic influence, just not in the position to delivering cold weather.

Roll on Summer.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 5:37pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

At this stage in the season, I agree. Even one model that was showing a mild and zonal Winter (German DWD model) was very wrong and there has been a lot of anticyclonic influence, just not in the position to delivering cold weather.

Roll on Summer.

I think we're all thinking the same way. At this stage I don't care if there's no more frost or snow in the charts till November 2019. It's time to stick a fork in this winter and focus on looking forward to the Spring and Summer.

Loughc · 05-02-2019 5:47pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think we're all thinking the same way. At this stage I don't care if there's no more frost or snow in the charts till November 2019. It's time to stick a fork in this winter and focus on looking forward to the Spring and Summer.

And roll on Winter 2019/20

ninebeanrows · 05-02-2019 6:05pm

Now that the long ranges have flipped- surely we can expect the mother of all late Feb cold spell :P

Rebelbrowser · 05-02-2019 6:07pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think we're all thinking the same way. At this stage I don't care if there's no more frost or snow in the charts till November 2019. It's time to stick a fork in this winter and focus on looking forward to the Spring and Summer.

Ye do remember that one of the greatest winter spells of the last century was in the last year and started on 28 February (i.e. still 23 days away)? Moreover it was sufficiently cold on St. Patrick's day that there was widespread sticking and lasting snow for many? Even forgetting Patrick's day, are you happy that the much maligned long term guidance can now be counted on to be accurate for 23+ day's time, simply because it is showing mild weather as opposed to cold?

I get the frustration but the stick a fork in it stuff is ridiculously premature.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 6:25pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Ye do remember that one of the greatest winter spells of the last century was in the last year and started on 28 February (i.e. still 23 days away)? Moreover it was sufficiently cold on St. Patrick's day that there was widespread sticking and lasting snow for many? Even forgetting Patrick's day, are you happy that the much maligned long term guidance can now be counted on to be accurate for 23+ day's time, simply because it is showing mild weather as opposed to cold?

I get the frustration but the stick a fork in it stuff is ridiculously premature.

I'm more annoyed by everything that went wrong this winter than anything else, it's been a very disappointing winter for many of us.

It's been the winter of constant downgrades and long term models being way off mark. It's also been the overall lack of sun, which has been very poor even by Irish winter standards.

Far too much cloud and damp muck throughout this winter, I can't even think of one day where the ground has been totally dry since December 1st. There were many dry days second half of December and first week of January, yet the ground remained damp from endless cloud and mist.

At the moment snow is looking unlikely for the rest of February, but a major model shift could bring some before 28th February, but at this stage i'd be happy to wait till next winter.

Snow probably will make it's return in March, which could bring a cold start to Spring. I'd be happy to see even a 1 day snow event in March as seeing any sort of snow in Spring is a bonus.

sryanbruen · 05-02-2019 6:59pm

Just started lashing in Dublin 13 after a mostly damp day with some peaks of sun in the cloud.

Slightly off topic but did my first mock exams today. It was English.

A comprehension on paper 1 referenced the December 2010 big freeze in Ireland and one of the essay choices was:

"Write a newspaper article on the importance of preparing for all kinds of weather."

What are the odds? :pac:

Rodar08 · 05-02-2019 7:09pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just started lashing in Dublin 13 after a mostly damp day with some peaks of sun in the cloud.

Slightly off topic but did my first mock exams today. It was English.

A comprehension on paper 1 referenced the December 2010 big freeze in Ireland and one of the essay choices was:

"Write a newspaper article on the importance of preparing for all kinds of weather."

What are the odds? :pac:

Oh wow Sryanbruen I didnt even think of you when I read it (womans heating packed in or smth) but now you mention it it's like it was written especially for you lol. I teach English in Donegal and was supervising in the hall during it so got a look at it. . How much extra paper did you need? ðŸ˜ good luck in the rest of the exams

esposito · 05-02-2019 7:14pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just started lashing in Dublin 13 after a mostly damp day with some peaks of sun in the cloud.

Slightly off topic but did my first mock exams today. It was English.

A comprehension on paper 1 referenced the December 2010 big freeze in Ireland and one of the essay choices was:

"Write a newspaper article on the importance of preparing for all kinds of weather."

What are the odds? :pac:

Just a pity it wasn’t the real thing in June! But still, great to get a topic like that.

ninebeanrows · 05-02-2019 7:16pm

Ouch- Kermit might have to open a thread soon.

ninebeanrows · 05-02-2019 7:17pm

Ouch #2

ninebeanrows · 05-02-2019 7:22pm

850hPa winds - idea of max potential gusts.

ECU4-72.GIF?05-0

RobertKK · 05-02-2019 7:33pm

I just enjoy this webcam, it has been snowing for hours...Finland, I have a Finnish friend there, he said they have twice the normal amount...
https://www.datapartner.fi/fi/web-kamera

highdef · 05-02-2019 7:59pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

850hPa winds - idea of max potential gusts.

That's an idea of max potential gusts at approx 1,500m so not really representative of any person living in Ireland.

Having said that, ECM is showing widespread gusts between 100 and 120 km/h in many areas, especially the west and northwest and (quite unusually) across the central swathe of the country.

@Sleety_Rain - Just saw your reference to using the 850hPa gusts as an indication to potential gusts should there be a sting jet scenario in the new thread for this potential event, which is entirely plausible given the current ECMWF chart for the 8th so point taken.

Donegal Storm · 05-02-2019 8:33pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think we're all thinking the same way. At this stage I don't care if there's no more frost or snow in the charts till November 2019. It's time to stick a fork in this winter and focus on looking forward to the Spring and Summer.

Definitely the same for me, I find no matter what weather we've been having I get really fed up with winter every year around now, constant darkness, dampness and lack of heat takes its toll eventually. Really looking forward to feeling a bit of heat in the sun again and starting to see convection kicking off over land

Franz Von Peppercorn · 05-02-2019 8:38pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Not bad in Dublin 13, good sunny spells. A far cry from yesterday's glorious sights though. It has generally been alright since mid-January here with a dramatic improvement in sunshine from the horrible muck of December into the first half of January.

The first two days of February have already had more than 20% of December's total sunshine at Dublin Airport.

November in Dublin was atrocious though. Worse than 2015 for rain.

sryanbruen · 05-02-2019 8:41pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

November in Dublin was atrocious though. Worse than 2015.

Not part of meteorological Winter which my post was speaking about. I didn't find November as bad as some say as I enjoyed some very wet days it had (like the 9th) and listening to the winds of dirty Diana near the end of the month. I know, unpopular opinion. Maybe in future when I have to commute often, I'll have a different thought on a month like November 2018.

EDIT: The easterly though during November was atrocious - I do agree there.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 8:45pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

November in Dublin was atrocious though. Worse than 2015 for rain.

November 2018 was brutal here in South Meath, the worst part was that easterly where we had almost 50 continuous hours of cold rain. It rained basically every day throughout that month and December wasn't much better untill Christmas week where it dryed out a bit.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 9:23pm

looking at the temperatures on Meteociel, picks up the Atlantic making inroads into western Europe perfectly. Ireland, UK, much of France and Spain are yellow/green colours with temperatures close to 10C or above.

Also interesting is the warmth over southern and eastern United States, only a few days ago some of those areas had temperatures close to -30C, today they are hitting 20C, a rise of almost 50C over a matter of days in some areas.

sryanbruen · 05-02-2019 9:27pm

Gonzo wrote: »

looking at the temperatures on Meteociel, picks up the Atlantic making inroads into western Europe perfectly. Ireland, UK, much of France and Spain are yellow/green colours with temperatures close to 10C or above.

Also interesting is the warmth over southern and eastern United States, only a few days ago some of those areas had temperatures close to -30C, today they are hitting 20C, a rise of almost 50C over a matter of days in some areas.

That's the kind of temperature difference they would have had last year when we were having the Beast from the East but the other way round. They were having remarkably high temperatures for late February standard whilst we were under bitterly cold easterly winds then when it became gradually milder here and unsettled, the high retrogressed to North America forming a western based negative NAO and bringing heavy snowfalls (including a couple of nor'easters) to them. In fact, it was the coldest April on record in the Mid-West after.

Similarly in February 1991 during that beasterly, the eastern seaboard had record breaking heat or at least according to Ian McCaskill.

Gonzo · 05-02-2019 9:34pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I still remember coming home from school and watching that forecast live after the 6pm news on BBC1. Snow was already falling at that stage, the next morning school was cancelled for more than a week.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2019 9:50pm

highdef wrote: »

That's an idea of max potential gusts at approx 1,500m so not really representative of any person living in Ireland.

Having said that, ECM is showing widespread gusts between 100 and 120 km/h in many areas, especially the west and northwest and (quite unusually) across the central swathe of the country.

@Sleety_Rain - Just saw your reference to using the 850hPa gusts as an indication to potential gusts should there be a sting jet scenario in the new thread for this potential event, which is entirely plausible given the current ECMWF chart for the 8th so point taken.

I believe they are actually average wind speeds at 850 hPa, approx 1,500m

Rebelbrowser · 05-02-2019 11:01pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I still remember coming home from school and watching that forecast live after the 6pm news on BBC1. Snow was already falling at that stage, the next morning school was cancelled for more than a week.

Yup. Remember it snowed the following morning in Cork and we got sent home from school. They used to do a long forecast on the radio 1 at 12.55 on a Sunday afternoon and I remember the previous Sunday when they announced that upcoming spell I was ridiculously excited. The Jan 87 easterly was still fresh in the memory back then. Happy memories.

nacho libre · 05-02-2019 11:15pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Similarly in February 1991 during that beasterly, the eastern seaboard had record breaking heat or at least according to Ian McCaskill.

Good Old Ian. What an epic forecast. I would be happy if we got event like Feburary 1991 to finish off this winter. I guess that is extremely unlikely at this stage. Are you of the same view as Yansnow that March will be a below average month temperature wise?

Oscar Bravo · 06-02-2019 12:18am

Some heavy showers with lightning possible along the west coast around dawn.Knock TAF gives a small chance of thunderstorms between 7am-9am. Perhaps Grace will see some lightning.

Donegal Storm · 06-02-2019 1:12am

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Some heavy showers with lightning possible along the west coast around dawn.Knock TAF gives a small chance of thunderstorms between 7am-9am. Perhaps Grace will see some lightning.

Just thinking it's been yet another extremely un-thundery winter, following on from a near thunder free 2018 (apart from that one night in May the the SE'ern third of the country experienced). A far cry from the big thundery hail showers we used to get coming in off the Atlantic most winters in the 2000's

May 2017 is still the last time I've heard a rumble of thunder, surely we're due a decent spell at some stage..:rolleyes:

gozunda · 06-02-2019 1:15am

Graces7 wrote: »

Indeed yes! Thank you!

Unfortunately also huge storm potential coming straight at the West coast this week ...

Graces7 · 06-02-2019 9:00am

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Some heavy showers with lightning possible along the west coast around dawn.Knock TAF gives a small chance of thunderstorms between 7am-9am. Perhaps Grace will see some lightning.

lol,, you keep.. stealing my thunder

Came back to say I heard thunder... Not noticed lightning but I am abed and no sky view

I have officially canceled my early walk... sheeting down and intermittent rumbles.... shudders!

west mayo offshore flood plain

Graces7 · 06-02-2019 9:02am

gozunda wrote: »

Unfortunately also huge storm potential coming straight at the West coast this week ...

yep. Hoping a clear spell Thursday so my fortnightly shopping delivery can get here

Villain · 06-02-2019 9:13am

Some snow tonight on higher ground

Little snowy old me · 06-02-2019 12:29pm

That wind is bitter today.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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