Mayo constituency GE2020

naughto · 11-01-2020 11:39am

Dillon kicked off his election bid in the tf last night with enda endorsing him.

Are we looking at a number of weeks before its called?

Loafing Oaf · 11-01-2020 12:14pm

naughto wrote: »

Dillon kicked off his election bid in the tf last night with enda endorsing him.

Are we looking at a number of weeks before its called?

Paddy Power says it's 1/4 to happen before the end of March. Would love to see their (or any bookie's) odds for the constituency...

irishgeo · 11-01-2020 1:46pm

cant see anything other than the same 4 getting back in although lisa has taken a bit of shine of herself with the voting scandal.

seligehgit · 11-01-2020 3:59pm

irishgeo wrote: »

cant see anything other than the same 4 getting back in although lisa has taken a bit of shine of herself with the voting scandal.

Presuming you mean Alan Dillon for Enda Kenny?:)

finisklin · 11-01-2020 6:16pm

It will be interesting to see the full field of candidates. Some of the independents like Kilcoyne could steal crucial votes.

Chambers and Calleary will give it a good run.

Has McHugh declared?

FG interesting too as Ring won't go forever. Will he hold his vote or will it wane? Will he get enough of a base to help bring Dillon over line? The RIC commeration will be remembered on the door steps, perhaps more so with younger voters?

Where does that leave Mulherin?

Will be interesting to watch.

irishgeo · 11-01-2020 7:01pm

Ring could struggle in achill after disappearing when the direct provision debate was in full flow.

Although his serious funding allocation to the region will get him over the line id say. Probably drag Dillion in on transfers.

Loafing Oaf · 11-01-2020 7:23pm

finisklin wrote: »

Where does that leave Mulherin?

If we're assuming it'll be a battle between her and Dillon for the second FG seat, I still think she holds a number of aces, including having first dibs on the north county FG vote and a higher profile outside the GAA community. Plus she probably knows she won't get another chance of getting back to the Dail if she doesn't make it this time, whereas Dillon's time surely come when Ring steps down...

irishgeo · 11-01-2020 9:20pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If we're assuming it'll be a battle between her and Dillon for the second FG seat, I still think she holds a number of aces, including having first dibs on the north county FG vote and a higher profile outside the GAA community. Plus she probably knows she won't get another chance of getting back to the Dail if she doesn't make it this time, whereas Dillon's time surely come when Ring steps down...

She has had own her expenses issues in the past.

naughto · 14-01-2020 10:11am

From the front page of the connaught Ring not happy of being snubbed to talk at dillions election night

Water John · 14-01-2020 12:15pm

A perceived grievance is great to get your own troops rallied.

yop · 14-01-2020 2:02pm

Ring will still top the poll, these are still local not general elections. And he has done enough to get the vote from those 1000's of grants he has given out.

Anyone find that phone bill for her ladyship and tell her roaming charges were scraped 12 months ago

Might ask her to explain to me how falsification of votes work if I decide to vote for others during the election when she stands on the doorstep.

naughto · 14-01-2020 2:15pm

8th the Feb it is then

iluvfatfrogs · 14-01-2020 2:26pm

naughto wrote: »

8th the Feb it is then

INTO up in arms

PARlance · 14-01-2020 3:16pm

iluvfatfrogs wrote: »

INTO up in arms

Poor things! They should all be on Saturdays.

ethical · 14-01-2020 9:40pm

Ring will top the poll.(He may haul Dillon over the line if Alan is nice to him!!!!!)

Calleary will get second spot.

Ms.Chambers was new last time and people gave her a chance,She will have an almighty battle to survive this time,not easy being an expectant mother and canvassing on these dirty dark wet evenings ALONG WITH SITTING IN THE INCORRECT SEAT A FEW TIMES!

Ms Mulherin will do better than expected and may well garner a seat BUT NO DOUBT THIS INTELLIGENT GIRL WILL DO SOMETHING STUPID BEFORE THE ELECTION! She always does.

Mr.Dillon make a deadly error in getting Kenny to launch his election run..............what the fcuk was he at,getting a man that would have been nowhere only for Ring rescued him election before last and then stupid Mayo people thought that a Mayo Taoiseach would give them endless richess,a lá John O'Donoghue in Kerry (and he wasnt even Taoiseach!).
People are so so stupid when elections come around and with all due respect electing a former Mayo footballer should be a no no,look at the situation when Mayo people previously destroyed their chance of a virtually guaranteed All Ireland and the swapped it for your man,the Senator from Ballaghadereen to take charge of their football team and henceforth destroy their opportunity of ending a near 70 year wait for Sam! Of course the senator feathered his own nest.

Kenny feathered his own nest and treated Ring like SH1TE,never gave him the front line ministry he deserved.Credit to Leo for putting Ring in the First Team....about the only thing our Star struck Taoiseach did right!
Dillon should have run for the Council and now he could have brought in another FGr to the Council in his place.Instead he has weakened his FG team in Mayo .Did he fear that he would not be elected to the council? PEOPLE OF MAYO DO NOT BE STUPID AGAIN!!!!!

Ms Conway -Walsh,has as good a chance as any (other than Ring and Calleary) of making the cut but she will have to make inroads into Ring's popularity in her native Erris,not an easy thing to do! She may also require someone of the calibre of Gerry Murray to run elsewhere in the county in order to make it,Murray is smart,intelligent and organised as all Sinn Féin candidates are, but will he run? Conway Walsh needs him!

If Kilcoyne considered running he would and perhaps could knock both Dillon and Chambers out in Castlebar but I reckon he sees himself as being more effective as a local politician and his record is there for all to see.

There are others who will put their names forward but are really wasting their money.

Joe Daly ,the People b4 Profit candidate ,has great ideas but in an old fashioned constituency as Mayo is,let us face it! he faces an uphill struggle for a few years before like-minded people see that he talks sense! His time may come in a few elections time.

I would sincerely hope that there is a bit of thought put into this election and that we do not end up with gombeens who are only in it for the money and the easy pension.Its time to end the Golden Circle!

14-01-2020 9:47pm

I predict Chambers will get in with votes to spare. She has already tapped into the young/middle age female vote quite effectively.

Loafing Oaf · 14-01-2020 9:58pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I predict Chambers will get in with votes to spare. She has already tapped into the young/middle age female vote quite effectively.

Yes, her outspoken pro-choice stance will do her no harm with that cohort, even in a 'backwater' like Mayo. Plus with FF on the up across the country, it's hard to see her or Calleary as facing any sort of difficulty...

irishgeo · 14-01-2020 10:32pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yes, her outspoken pro-choice stance will do her no harm with that cohort, even in a 'backwater' like Mayo. Plus with FF on the up across the country, it's hard to see her or Calleary as facing any sort of difficulty...

Apart from the voting scandal which will do her harm. People will see it as the usual FF carry on.

Long_Wave · 14-01-2020 10:37pm

Dara Calleary looks so gross

robman60 · 14-01-2020 10:44pm

Ring top for sure. Calleary a solid second.
Chambers will get in third I reckon because FG non-Ring vote will be split. I'd rather Mulherin get in the fourth seat even if she's no great gain. Dillon strikes me as a man who just wants to get his head in the trough as fast as possible, for as long as possible.

The Shinner possibly the wild card, especially if the FG vote splits too evenly between the two contenders. I think the Sinn Féin highpoint has come and gone though, especially I can't see Mary Lou appealing to the hardcore SF boys in Mayo.

Loafing Oaf · 14-01-2020 11:05pm

robman60 wrote: »

The Shinner possibly the wild card, especially if the FG vote splits too evenly between the two contenders. I think the Sinn Féin highpoint has come and gone though, especially I can't see Mary Lou appealing to the hardcore SF boys in Mayo.

This constituency poll from last year has them on 2%.
https://www.advertiser.ie/mayo/article/110471/poll-shows-no-mayo-breakthrough-for-green-party-and-sinn-fin
You'd assume RCW's personal profile means her FPV will be a multiple of that but still very hard to win a seat from that base...

seligehgit · 14-01-2020 11:54pm

ethical wrote: »

Ring will top the poll.(He may haul Dillon over the line if Alan is nice to him!!!!!)

Calleary will get second spot.

Ms.Chambers was new last time and people gave her a chance,She will have an almighty battle to survive this time,not easy being an expectant mother and canvassing on these dirty dark wet evenings ALONG WITH SITTING IN THE INCORRECT SEAT A FEW TIMES!

Ms Mulherin will do better than expected and may well garner a seat BUT NO DOUBT THIS INTELLIGENT GIRL WILL DO SOMETHING STUPID BEFORE THE ELECTION! She always does.

Mr.Dillon make a deadly error in getting Kenny to launch his election run..............what the fcuk was he at,getting a man that would have been nowhere only for Ring rescued him election before last and then stupid Mayo people thought that a Mayo Taoiseach would give them endless richess,a lá John O'Donoghue in Kerry (and he wasnt even Taoiseach!).
People are so so stupid when elections come around and with all due respect electing a former Mayo footballer should be a no no,look at the situation when Mayo people previously destroyed their chance of a virtually guaranteed All Ireland and the swapped it for your man,the Senator from Ballaghadereen to take charge of their football team and henceforth destroy their opportunity of ending a near 70 year wait for Sam! Of course the senator feathered his own nest.

Kenny feathered his own nest and treated Ring like SH1TE,never gave him the front line ministry he deserved.Credit to Leo for putting Ring in the First Team....about the only thing our Star struck Taoiseach did right!
Dillon should have run for the Council and now he could have brought in another FGr to the Council in his place.Instead he has weakened his FG team in Mayo .Did he fear that he would not be elected to the council? PEOPLE OF MAYO DO NOT BE STUPID AGAIN!!!!!

Ms Conway -Walsh,has as good a chance as any (other than Ring and Calleary) of making the cut but she will have to make inroads into Ring's popularity in her native Erris,not an easy thing to do! She may also require someone of the calibre of Gerry Murray to run elsewhere in the county in order to make it,Murray is smart,intelligent and organised as all Sinn Féin candidates are, but will he run? Conway Walsh needs him!

If Kilcoyne considered running he would and perhaps could knock both Dillon and Chambers out in Castlebar but I reckon he sees himself as being more effective as a local politician and his record is there for all to see.

There are others who will put their names forward but are really wasting their money.

Joe Daly ,the People b4 Profit candidate ,has great ideas but in an old fashioned constituency as Mayo is,let us face it! he faces an uphill struggle for a few years before like-minded people see that he talks sense! His time may come in a few elections time.

I would sincerely hope that there is a bit of thought put into this election and that we do not end up with gombeens who are only in it for the money and the easy pension.Its time to end the Golden Circle!

Dara Calleary is guaranteed a senior ministerial post as deputy leader of Fianna Fail.

I'd imagine Lisa Chambers is in line for a ministerial post too if Fianna Fail lead a government likely dependent on a confidence and supply agreement.

This is not an insignificant consideration when the Mayo electorate put their pen to the ballot paper with a similar thought process in place around voting for Michael Ring.

Green&Red · 15-01-2020 9:46am

ethical wrote: »

Joe Daly ,the People b4 Profit candidate ,has great ideas but in an old fashioned constituency as Mayo is,let us face it! he faces an uphill struggle for a few years before like-minded people see that he talks sense! His time may come in a few elections time.

Theres a lot of stuff i would disagree with in your post and thats putting it politely but this is hilarious. Joe Daly couldn't make the council, thank god, an absolute blessing. If he put as much effort into his job as he did into his politics it would be a start

Green&Red · 15-01-2020 9:48am

I think it'll be Ring/Calleary fairly close
Dillon followed by Chambers

Doubt Mulherin has much chance TBH, there aren't three FG seats in Mayo

Loafing Oaf · 15-01-2020 1:03pm

Green&Red wrote: »

I think it'll be Ring/Calleary fairly close
Dillon followed by Chambers

Doubt Mulherin has much chance TBH, there aren't three FG seats in Mayo

I don't think anyone is saying there are, but I don't why there should be certainty that a rookie like Dillon will take the second FG seat ahead of her. She's certainly making a big push; posters all over Ballina this morning...

farmchoice · 15-01-2020 1:15pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't think anyone is saying there are, but I don't why there should be certainty that a rookie like Dillon will take the second FG seat ahead of her. She's certainly making a big push; posters all over Ballina this morning...

ya id fancy her to take the seat ahead of dillon this time, in fairness to her she has been putting in some amount of work (canvassing work) for the last year at least, she is at everything, she is pretty much a professional lip syncer at this stage.

since she came on the scene i have had a lot of time for lisa chambers, i always thought she came across very well. she preformed very well during and after the repeal the 8th ref and she did well on Brexit. now i dont know her and have never met her.
Having said that she has gone down a good bit in my estimation recently. the whole voting thing is a pretty bad look and her various explanations have made her look foolish at best.
also i'm not sure moving to killala is the best move at this time, if she thinks (or has been convinced) that her new association with the area is going to win her votes she is sadly mistaken. then again her private life is her own business.

Coillte_Bhoy · 15-01-2020 3:24pm

ethical wrote: »

Ring will top the poll.(He may haul Dillon over the line if Alan is nice to him!!!!!)

Calleary will get second spot.

Ms.Chambers was new last time and people gave her a chance,She will have an almighty battle to survive this time,not easy being an expectant mother and canvassing on these dirty dark wet evenings ALONG WITH SITTING IN THE INCORRECT SEAT A FEW TIMES!

Ms Mulherin will do better than expected and may well garner a seat BUT NO DOUBT THIS INTELLIGENT GIRL WILL DO SOMETHING STUPID BEFORE THE ELECTION! She always does.

Mr.Dillon make a deadly error in getting Kenny to launch his election run..............what the fcuk was he at,getting a man that would have been nowhere only for Ring rescued him election before last and then stupid Mayo people thought that a Mayo Taoiseach would give them endless richess,a lá John O'Donoghue in Kerry (and he wasnt even Taoiseach!).
People are so so stupid when elections come around and with all due respect electing a former Mayo footballer should be a no no,look at the situation when Mayo people previously destroyed their chance of a virtually guaranteed All Ireland and the swapped it for your man,the Senator from Ballaghadereen to take charge of their football team and henceforth destroy their opportunity of ending a near 70 year wait for Sam! Of course the senator feathered his own nest.

Kenny feathered his own nest and treated Ring like SH1TE,never gave him the front line ministry he deserved.Credit to Leo for putting Ring in the First Team....about the only thing our Star struck Taoiseach did right!
Dillon should have run for the Council and now he could have brought in another FGr to the Council in his place.Instead he has weakened his FG team in Mayo .Did he fear that he would not be elected to the council? PEOPLE OF MAYO DO NOT BE STUPID AGAIN!!!!!

Ms Conway -Walsh,has as good a chance as any (other than Ring and Calleary) of making the cut but she will have to make inroads into Ring's popularity in her native Erris,not an easy thing to do! She may also require someone of the calibre of Gerry Murray to run elsewhere in the county in order to make it,Murray is smart,intelligent and organised as all Sinn Féin candidates are, but will he run? Conway Walsh needs him!

If Kilcoyne considered running he would and perhaps could knock both Dillon and Chambers out in Castlebar but I reckon he sees himself as being more effective as a local politician and his record is there for all to see.

There are others who will put their names forward but are really wasting their money.

Joe Daly ,the People b4 Profit candidate ,has great ideas but in an old fashioned constituency as Mayo is,let us face it! he faces an uphill struggle for a few years before like-minded people see that he talks sense! His time may come in a few elections time.

I would sincerely hope that there is a bit of thought put into this election and that we do not end up with gombeens who are only in it for the money and the easy pension.Its time to end the Golden Circle!

Ah for crying out loud. :rolleyes: And maybe less of the wholescale insulting of the Mayo electorate if you don't mind? Your 'analysis' might be considered a bit more seriously then

Coillte_Bhoy · 15-01-2020 3:26pm

Michael Farrington not running for Renua not that it would make any diffrence i suppose. Lawless might pick up the hard core anti choice vote if it even exists anymore? Though in fairmess to him he's not making any noise on that issue

Westernyelp · 15-01-2020 7:01pm

Coillte_Bhoy wrote:

Michael Farrington not running for Renua not that it would make any diffrence i suppose. Lawless might pick up the hard core anti choice vote if it even exists anymore? Though in fairmess to him he's not making any noise on that issue

He has posters up around Castlebar today. Not that they will do him much good. Hopefully

Loafing Oaf · 15-01-2020 7:28pm

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Michael Farrington not running for Renua

Westernyelp wrote: »

He has posters up around Castlebar today. Not that they will do him much good.

Well not if the previous post is accurate anyway

Westernyelp · 15-01-2020 7:31pm

Loafing Oaf wrote:

Well not if the previous post is accurate anyway

I meant Lawless. No amount of posters will help Farringdon!

Loafing Oaf · 15-01-2020 7:46pm

Westernyelp wrote: »

I meant Lawless. No amount of posters will help Farringdon!

Oh right, he's the Aontu guy, Google informs me. Never heard of him before. And never will again after the election, in all probability...

naughto · 15-01-2020 8:52pm

Will the taxi man run ?
No point him stopping now with every election being a disaster

Westernyelp · 15-01-2020 8:54pm

I'm just waiting for Kamal's hat to land in the ring

seligehgit · 15-01-2020 9:04pm

Westernyelp wrote: »

I'm just waiting for Kamal's hat to land in the ring

seligehgit · 15-01-2020 9:59pm

farmchoice wrote: »

ya id fancy her to take the seat ahead of dillon this time, in fairness to her she has been putting in some amount of work (canvassing work) for the last year at least, she is at everything, she is pretty much a professional lip syncer at this stage.

since she came on the scene i have had a lot of time for lisa chambers, i always thought she came across very well. she preformed very well during and after the repeal the 8th ref and she did well on Brexit. now i dont know her and have never met her.
Having said that she has gone down a good bit in my estimation recently. the whole voting thing is a pretty bad look and her various explanations have made her look foolish at best.
also i'm not sure moving to killala is the best move at this time, if she thinks (or has been convinced) that her new association with the area is going to win her votes she is sadly mistaken. then again her private life is her own business.

Lest we be accused of endemic cynicism vis a vis our politicians I can't find it credible that she'd move to Killala for anything other than personal reasons.

She'd be far more likely to lose votes with such a move with reduced visibilty around her Castlebar bailiwick.

Fair play to her,it's a brave move but very understandable.I can only imagine it is quite a task to juggle a high octane political career and her pending motherhood.

I see the Connaught Telegraph are bigging up Saoirse Mc Hugh as a dark horse.

She performed quite credibly in the European elections but the Greens are polling at 1% in this constituency.

Coillte_Bhoy · 16-01-2020 12:34am

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Oh right, he's the Aontu guy, Google informs me. Never heard of him before. And never will again after the election, in all probability...

Ran in the loclas, young lad and he's very active on social media, cant believe havent heard of him tbh

seligehgit · 16-01-2020 8:29am

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Ran in the loclas, young lad and he's very active on social media, cant believe havent heard of him tbh

I never heard of him either.

seligehgit · 16-01-2020 9:03am

On Morning Ireland Eamon Ryan stated he'd scrap the N5 dual carriageway project as part of any government,ditto other major road projects.

I don't believe he stated it would be pre condition for entering a coalition government.

farmchoice · 16-01-2020 10:15am

seligehgit wrote: »

On Morning Ireland Eamon Ryan stated he'd scrap the N5 dual carriageway project as part of any government,ditto other major road projects.

I don't believe he stated it would be pre condition for entering a coalition government.

i came on to post the same thing, if mc hugh girl had any chance before ryan explicity said he would put a stop to the westport road she has none now.

I heard ryan, mattie mc grath and one of the healy-rae's on sean o rourke the other day. it was hard to tell which was the bigger clown. ryan sounds plausible until you listen to the words he is saying. mattie mc grath wiped the floor with him and mattie mc garth cant wipe his arse.

Dudda · 16-01-2020 10:42am

That road is to far gone. The land is purchased, contracts are signed and builders are on site and will have started works before the election happens. By the time a government is formed it will be March. Realistically it would be another 2-3 weeks (at best) before he finds his feet and stops the road. We’re then in April. He won’t be able to stop it without massive costs (compensation to builder, etc) and then spend millions returning it to grassland.

Anyway, while I didn’t hear the interview, it was a stupid thing to say. I’m disappointed as I’d like to see McHugh do well.

farmchoice · 16-01-2020 11:30am

Dudda wrote: »

That road is to far gone. The land is purchased, contracts are signed and builders are on site and will have started works before the election happens. By the time a government is formed it will be March. Realistically it would be another 2-3 weeks (at best) before he finds his feet and stops the road. We’re then in April. He won’t be able to stop it without massive costs (compensation to builder, etc) and then spend millions returning it to grassland.

Anyway, while I didn’t hear the interview, it was a stupid thing to say. I’m disappointed as I’d like to see McHugh do well.

oh there is no hope he will stop this road or any other one for that matter, if the greens do in up in government this will be off the table immediately.

but it means that candidates in rural constituencies have to answer for the loony proposals.

Loafing Oaf · 16-01-2020 1:08pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't think anyone is saying there are, but I don't why there should be certainty that a rookie like Dillon will take the second FG seat ahead of her. She's certainly making a big push; posters all over Ballina this morning...

At last, a reliable steer on this question courtesy of Patrick Power Esquire:P
https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies

They have Mulherin @4/6 and Dillon @ 10/11, so the bounce of a ball in it.:D Surprisingly McHugh is next favourite @ 3/, but I guess they're covering themselves in the event of a massive green surge
Three sitting TDs are unbackable...

spakman · 16-01-2020 1:23pm

seligehgit wrote: »

On Morning Ireland Eamon Ryan stated he'd scrap the N5 dual carriageway project as part of any government,ditto other major road projects.

I don't believe he stated it would be pre condition for entering a coalition government.

I heard that. Not alone that - he said people should walk and use bicycles!
He is so Dublin-oriented he doesn't realise how ridiculous he sounds to the rest of the country.
Does he expect me to cycle from Dublin down to West Mayo to see my mother!? :rolleyes:

ethical · 16-01-2020 6:18pm

Ryan is an idiot as far as outside the Pale is concerned.His party will pick up a few seats and be charmed into Government by eirther FG or FF and like before they will fcuk him up,blame him for everything regarding tax rises etc and he will be out on his ear come the next election.He just sees tax as the salvation of the planet.There are other better ways to encourage people to go green rather than screw them with tax.

Loafing Oaf · 19-01-2020 12:25am

https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/election-2020-mayo-constituency-profile-1.4144224

Here's Harry McGee of IT's take on the constituency. Sticking with the conventional wisdom of 2FF/2FG but doesn't - quite - write off young Saoirse...

Boredstiff666 · 19-01-2020 12:28am

Why are they building this Westport road anyway?

oscarBravo · 19-01-2020 1:11am

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Why are they building this Westport road anyway?

Because it's needed. Why is any road built?

Loafing Oaf · 19-01-2020 1:15am

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Why are they building this Westport road anyway?

So the name of Michael Ring will live forever

Boredstiff666 · 19-01-2020 1:18am

oscarBravo wrote: »

Because it's needed. Why is any road built?

Thats an open question.

So the politician who arranged it thinks he can get re-elected from the half wits who think....'he got the road'.

So the breadman can deliver faster.

So businessmen who arent involved in whats already there can try and use it to get investment for what they want.

Because the traffic on existing road is excessive which it isnt.

Also the new stuff is that we will soon be driving less in electric cars so not much forward thinking possibly.

Mayo constituency GE2020

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