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September 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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    #32
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 13.2 (13.24) with the third week at 12.9 (-0.2 relative to normal). This seems likely to fall back further to end up around 12.7 or so.

    MAX remains 25.1 and MIN 2.1, likely to change this coming week with slight frosts in the forecasts.

    PRC has soared to 109% of normal as the third week was quite wet generally, the average 180%. However, after today's mostly off-grid south coast rainfall, it looks rather dry to end of month, so assuming 105% after today, and 30% for the nine remaining days, that would drop PRC back below normal and end up at around 85%. If the rain was as low as 10% we would end at 80% so that's probably the guaranteed base.

    SUN is now at 85% of normal with the third week measuring 80% (479/600). The rest of the month looks a bit brighter, possibly up to 150% on average, which would bring that value up to near 100%. A more conservative 120% would leave us near 92%. People with higher forecasts (like me at 115%) need about double the average from here to the end, looks a bit difficult with weak fronts passing on several occasions.

    Based on all of the above and assuming a minimum near -1, some of the better scores (noting the bonus already settled and MAX probably in the bag) would be in the 80 to 90 range in the portion of the table below consensus, the outcome all depends on the minimum which some will be hoping stays fairly high, others have quite a sharp frost covered.


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    #33
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,892 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Decidedly cool tonight. In Sligo its 7c but down Doorley Park is 5c as drove there so the 2.1c could be in danger as soon as tonight

    its only 4c in Dublin

    IMT looking low isnt it


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    #34
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,741 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mount Dillon reporting -1c this morning.


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    #35
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    New low temperature, Mt Dillon -1.5c. 24th.


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    #36
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,892 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Rest of month cold after yesterdays warmth

    IMT will be lower than everyones guesses but its not an incredibly cold September in the grand scheme of things.

    Some chilly IMTs in past week or so though


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Correct, IMT on 12.6 C after 27 days and likely to fall 0.1 per day from now to end, so 12.2 looks about the final result, our coldest forecast was 12.8 (BLIZZARD7) so will be scoring off the good old minimum progression (23 for top score with that error, and down from there, but if you have 13.7 or warmer your raw score will be higher than minimum progression so even the warmest forecast gets 5 points (if 12.2 is correct).

    Will be posting the fourth week results tomorrow and noting tonight could lower the MIN from --1.5 at present.


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    #38
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Mountdillon reporting -2 C at 03h to 05h overnight, then -1 at 0600h

    Mullingar at -1 C 0400h to 0600h also. Athenry at -1 at 0600h.

    Could see a reduction of previous MIN from all of that.


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    #39
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,892 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -1.6c in Mullingar (is this a record for September for that station)

    Mt Dillon likely lower


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    #40
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,523 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    -1.6c in Mullingar (is this a record for September for that station)

    Mt Dillon likely lower

    Yes, -1.6c is another new record for Mullingar beating the -0.8c (which was already a new record) from earlier this week!

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #41
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update after four weeks ...

    IMT at 12.5 (from 12.46) with this past week 10.1, which is 2.3 below normal for that period. Will likely finish around 12.2.

    MAX will definitely finish on 25.1, MIN is likely to be last night's low at Mountdillon to be confirmed later (around -2).

    PRC at 88% of normal with this past week only 19% of normal. Not much will fall today or tomorrow, likely to edge down to about 84%, lowest possible is 83%.

    SUN close to 97% of normal after this week managed 135% (810/600). Plenty of additional sunshine today, perhaps not as much on 30th, may bring the month quite close to 100% (my estimates never seem to be as accurate on this when I compare the MS totals with 1981-2010 normal values, so a range of 95 to 105 is the likely finishing point).


    Will be confirming IMT and PRC on the first from monthly data, and tweaking the SUN estimate ... this should permit a provisional scoring table to be adjusted on 2nd when a value for SUN is calculated. The October thread is open for your forecasts.


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    #42
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,892 ✭✭✭pauldry


    low minus two point two. (in text as shocked)


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    #43
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    pauldry wrote: »
    low minus two point two. (in text as shocked)


    Nothing wrong with it :)


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    MIN scores will be raw, not adjusted as (a) there is an exact forecast and (b) number of zero scores is fewer than one-third. If there had been a case for minimum progression, any upward movement would be cut in half as a result of (a). You'll see that this would reduce any boosted scores to one or two points more in any case. Well done Joe Public (Rikand and waterways will get 17/20 for their good efforts).


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    #45
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final scoring for September 2018




    FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN _PRC_SUN_ IMT 1-15 __ TOTAL

    estimated values _____12.2_25.1_-2.2_084_095___13.5

    BLIZZARD7 __________23*_ 19 _ 15 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 09 ______ 81

    NormaL _____________21*_ 16 _ 13 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 10 ______ 79

    M.T. Cranium ________ 20*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 10 ______ 75
    Dasa29 _____________ 21*_ 18 _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 11 ______ 67
    DOCARCH ___________ 16*_ 11 _ 10 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 09 ______ 67
    Joe Public ___________ 10 __11 _ 20 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 05 ______ 67
    Rameire ___ (-2) _____ 22*_ 14 _ 08 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 08 __69-2=67
    Pauldry _____________ 13*_ 17 _ 08 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 ______ 66
    Dacogawa ___________ 10 __18 _ 12 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 07 ______ 65
    waterways ___________10 __12 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 64
    Sunflower3___________20*_ 07 _ 16 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 64
    Rikand ______________07 __09 _ 17 _ 13 _ 05 ___ 08 ______ 59

    Con Sensus __________13*_ 11 _ 08 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 59

    sdanseo _____________13*_ 17 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 57
    200motels ___________17*_ 06 _ 00 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 55
    Adam240610 __ (-4) __ 13*_ 07 _ 07 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 07 __55-4=51
    john mac _____ (-3) __ 20*_ 08 _ 08 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 00 __54-3=51
    Artane2002 __________09 __15 _ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 05 ______ 50
    mickger844posts ______13*_ 10 _ 03 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 02 ______ 50
    Jpmarn _____________ 07 __18 _ 03 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 02 ______ 50
    Bsal ________________07 __09 _ 13 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 01 ______ 50
    Kindred Spirit ________ 14*_ 01 _ 08 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 ______ 47
    JCXBXC ____ (-5) _____16*_ 00 _ 13 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 03 __46-5=41
    MrSkinner ___________ 06 __19 _ 00 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 01 ______ 41
    sryanbruen __________ 08 __08 _ 03 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 03 ______ 36

    * (IMT) _ minimum progression until 13.7 C then raw scores higher

    Apparently, NormaL is the new Con in our scoring, congrats to BLIZZARD7 for soaring above the rest.

    ============== ================ =============

    (actual forecasts)

    Table of forecasts for September 2018


    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ IMT 1-15

    MrSkinner ___________ 14.1 _ 25.0 _+0.4 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 15.2
    Jpmarn _____________ 14.0 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 15.0
    Bsal ________________14.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 15.4
    Rikand ______________14.0 _ 24.0 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0
    sryanbruen __________ 13.9 _ 23.9 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 115 ___ 14.9
    Artane2002 __________13.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 14.5
    Dacogawa ___________ 13.7 _ 24.9 _ -1.4 _ 075 _ 120 ___ 14.1
    waterways ___________13.7 _ 24.3 _ -1.9 _ 095 _ 107 ___ 14.2
    Joe Public ____________13.7 _ 24.2 _ -2.2 _ 083 _ 117 ___ 14.3
    sdanseo _____________13.6 _ 24.8 _+0.4 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.1
    Pauldry _____________ 13.6 _ 24.8 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 13.9
    mickger844posts ______13.6 _ 24.1 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 15.1
    Adam240610 __ (-4) __ 13.6 _ 23.8 _ -0.9 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 14.1

    Con Sensus __________13.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.0 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 14.1

    Kindred Spirit ________ 13.5 _ 23.2 _ -1.0 _ 091 _ 112 ___ 14.6
    DOCARCH ___________ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ -1.2 _ 086 _ 112 ___ 13.9
    JCXBXC ____ (-5) _____13.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.5 _ 105 _ 115 ___ 14.9
    200motels ___________13.3 _ 23.7 _+1.6 _ 081 _ 084 ___ 13.2
    M.T. Cranium ________ 13.2 _ 25.2 _ -1.5 _ 060 _ 115 ___ 13.7
    john mac ___ (-3) ____ 13.2 _ 23.9 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 16.0
    Sunflower3 __________ 13.2 _ 23.8 _ -1.8 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 14.1

    NormaL _____________13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.6

    Dasa29 _____________13.1 _ 24.9 _+1.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 13.5
    Rameire ___ (-2) _____13.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 106 _ 089 ___ 14.0
    BLIZZARD7 _________ 12.8 _ 25.0 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.9


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    No changes required yet to the provisional scoring, as IMT confirmed 12.2, and PRC at 84%. Will check all values with MS in particular the SUN estimate which still looks okay at this point (29th-30th ran about 120% of normal).


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    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Having adjusted the sunshine scores slightly for September, here's the updated annual summary ... note that the order has changed as of this month to the best 7 of 9 totals and your rank in the all-nine shows up after the total score near the end of the row (before the 7/9 score) at this point.

    With these longer rows of data, I have dropped the column showing last month's rank, that is replaced by the rank for all nine totals. The two lowest scores you drop for best 7/9 are shown in italic.Those who have missed one month have just one low score shown and if you miss two months, your total score will be the same as your best score total and no months will be marked. If you miss three or more you are likely no longer eligible for the top award unless you have nine really good scores. I stop listing them when they drop too far below the average.


    Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Sept)

    (7/9)
    rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP _ TOTAL <- rank __ best 7/9

    01 _ Pauldry_____________ 73 _ 58 _ 89 _ 48 _ 76 _ 59 _ 78 _ 62 _ 66 __ 609 __ 01 ____ 503
    02 _ waterways __________ 81 _ 34 _ 51 _ 73 _ 76 _ 46 _ 83 _ 64 _ 64 __ 572 __ 03 ____ 492

    (03a) NormaL ___________ 75 _ 52 _ 48 _ 71 _ 63 _ 31 _ 59 _ 85 _ 79 __ 563 __(06) ____ 484

    (03b) Con Sensus ________ 73 _ 67 _ 69 _ 51 _ 71 _ 54 _ 84 _ 56 _ 59 __ 584 __(02) ____479

    03 _ sryanbruen __________56 _ 71 _ 65 _ 60 _ 74 _ 46 _ 85 _ 65 _ 36 __ 558 __ 06 ____ 476
    04 _ Dacogawa ___________71 _ 67 _ 70 _ 67 _ 63 _ 52 _ 71 _ 50 _ 65 __ 576 __ 02 ____ 474
    05 _ Rameire ____________ 52 _ 56 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 44 _ 88 _ 67 _ 67 __ 566 __ 05 ____ 473
    06 _ DOCARCH ___________63 _ 62 _ 75 _ 61 _ 68 _ 42 _ 69 _ 47 _ 67 __ 554 __ 07 ____ 465
    07 _ BLIZZARD7 __________27 _ 73 _ 46 _ 70 _ 92 _ 52 _ 48 _ 46 _ 81 __ 535 __ 11 ____ 462
    08 _ Rikand _____________ 66 _ 64 _ 62 _ 61 _ 74 _ 65 _ 65 _ 51 _ 59 __ 567 __ 04 ____ 457
    t09_ M.T. Cranium ________ 60 _ 45 _ 52 _ 56 _ 86 _ 49 _ 77 _ 50 _ 75 __ 550 __ 08 ____ 456
    t09_ Joe Public ___________ 35 _ 62 _ 48 _ 81 _ 61 _ 66 _ 63 _ 56 _ 67 __ 539 __ 10 ____ 456
    11 _ JCXBXC _____________34 _ 72 _ 54 _ 43 _ 77 _ 56 _ 78 _ 75 _ 41 __ 530 __ 13 ____ 455
    12 _ MrSkinner ___________73 _ 64 _ 72 _ 42 _ 69 _ 36 _ 68 _ 66 _ 41 __ 532 __ 12 ____ 454
    13 _ Jpmarn _____________ 71 _ 61 _ 49 _ 57 _ 68 _ 60 _ 81 _ 51 _ 50 __ 548 __ 09 ____ 449
    14_ Tae laidir ____________ 78 _ 53 _ 63 _ 47 _ 61 _ 52 _ 67 _ 69 _ --- __ 490 __ 18 ____ 438
    15 _ mickger844posts _____ 75 _ 77 _ 69 _ 42 _ 54 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 _ 50 __ 522 __ 15 ____ 436
    16 _ sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 56 _ 63 _ 58 _ 57 _ 41 _ 65 _ 52 _ 64 __ 524 __ 14 ____ 431
    17 _ Kindred Spirit ________ 59 _ 56 _ 55 _ 28 _ 66 _ 57 _ 77 _ 48 _ 47 __ 493 __ 17 ____ 418
    18 _ john mac ____________48 _ 58 _ 58 _ 42 _ 63 _ 39 _ 67 _ 72 _ 51 __ 498 __ 16 ____ 417
    19 _ dasa29 _____________ 69 _ 40 _ 83 _ 43 _ 54 _ 35 _ 57 _ 41 _ 67 __ 489 __ 19 ____ 414
    20 _ sdanseo _____________45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 52 _ 57 _ 64 _ 65 _ --- _ 57 __ 458 __ 22 ____ 413
    21 _ Bsal ________________63 _ 49 _ 71 _ 38 _ 56 _ 34 _ 71 _ 44 _ 50 __ 476 __ 20 ____ 404
    22 _ 200motels ___________36 _ 65 _ 47 _ 49 _ 85 _ 32 _ 62 _ 37 _ 55 __ 468 __ 21 ____ 400

    23 _ Lumi _______________ 54 _ 54 _ 62 _ --- _ 77 _ 55 _ --- _--- _ --- __ 302
    24 _ Adam240610 ________ --- _ --- _ 56 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ 64 _ 72 _ 51 __ 243
    25 _ Artane2002 __________--- _ --- _ ---_ 59 _ 57 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ 50 __ 213
    ________________________________________________________________________________________

    Ranks of NormaL and Con Sensus would be third if they were independently playing the contest, so I show them as 3a and 3b since both are between 2nd and 3rd ranked (real) participants. This is the first time NormaL has overtaken Con Sensus in the annual standings (that I can recall anyway). Good for Pauldry and waterways staying ahead of them both.


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    #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,352 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring is now final, the MS confirmed most of the estimates and SUN was calculated to be 95% rather than 98% which resulted in some scores going up or down by one point and some remaining the same. In the annual summary, one score for September had to be revised more than that due to my entering the wrong score originally (for JCX BXC) ... the scoring is so tight in that part of the table that a ten point differential caused a shift in ranking by about four places. On that subject, the best 7/9 scoring is within 50 points from first to twelfth place, and in particular the range from 6th to 12th is quite small meaning that there could easily be large shifts in ranks from month to month as we enter the final quarter of the competition.


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