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September 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-08-2018 9:25am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2018. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

    6. BONUS: Predict the IMT value at the halfway point, after 15 days.

    Deadline for entries is 0300h Saturday 1st September, with penalties applying for every three hours late.


    Good luck !!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2018. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

    6. BONUS: Predict the IMT value at the halfway point, after 15 days.

    Deadline for entries is 0300h Saturday 1st September, with penalties applying for every three hours late.


    Good luck !!
    200motels————— 13.3—— 23.7—— 1.6——— 81———- 84———— 13.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 13.9 _ 23.9 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 115 __ 14.9

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _____ 13.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 110 __ 14.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 13.2 _ 23.8 _ -1.8 _ 115 _ 90 __ 14.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _____ 14.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 95 _ 102 __ 15.4


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 14.0 ___ 24.0 ___ -2.5 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 14.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 13.5 ___ 23.2 ___ -1.00 ___ 91 ___ 112 ___ 14.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ___ 13.7 ___ 24.2 ___ -2.2 ___ 83 ___ 117 ___ 14.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _____ 13.1 _ 24.9 _ 1.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 13.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC _________ 13.2 _ 25.2 _ -1.5 _ 060 _ 115 __ 13.7

    NormaL ______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 13.6


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  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 13.7___ 24.3___ -1.9 ___ 95 ___ 107 ___ 14.2


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,114 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ -1.2 _ 86 _ 112 __ 13.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry ____ 13.6 _ 24.8 _ -1 _ 100_ 102__ 13.9


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____ 13.6 _ 24.1 _ -0.5 _ 90 _ 100 __ 15.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _________ 13.7 _ 24.9 _ -1.4 _ 075 _ 120 __ 14.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _____ 13.6 _ 24.8 _ 0.4 _ 090 _ 110 __ 14.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner______14.1_____25.0_____0.4_____70_____120_____15.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7______12.8 __ 25 __ -1.7 __ 110 __ 100 __ 13.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _____ 14.0 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 90 _ 112 __ 15.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_____ 13.0_ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 106_ 89__ 14.0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac_____ 13.2 _ 23.9 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 98 __ 16.0
    (forgot to do it last night )
    :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Whoops forgot what date it was

    Adam240610____13.6_23.8_-0.9_090_105_14.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC_____ 13.4_ 23 _ -1.5 _ 105 _ 115 __ 14.9

    Sh*te, said I'd do it yesterday, went out instead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for September 2018


    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ IMT 1-15

    MrSkinner ___________ 14.1 _ 25.0 _+0.4 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 15.2
    Jpmarn _____________ 14.0 _ 24.9 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 15.0
    Bsal ________________14.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 15.4
    Rikand ______________14.0 _ 24.0 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0
    sryanbruen __________ 13.9 _ 23.9 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 115 ___ 14.9
    Artane2002 __________13.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 14.5
    Dacogawa ___________ 13.7 _ 24.9 _ -1.4 _ 075 _ 120 ___ 14.1
    waterways ___________13.7 _ 24.3 _ -1.9 _ 095 _ 107 ___ 14.2
    Joe Public ____________13.7 _ 24.2 _ -2.2 _ 083 _ 117 ___ 14.3
    sdanseo _____________13.6 _ 24.8 _+0.4 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.1
    Pauldry _____________ 13.6 _ 24.8 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 13.9
    mickger844posts ______13.6 _ 24.1 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 15.1
    Adam240610 __ (-4) __ 13.6 _ 23.8 _ -0.9 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 14.1

    Con Sensus __________13.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.0 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 14.1

    Kindred Spirit ________ 13.5 _ 23.2 _ -1.0 _ 091 _ 112 ___ 14.6
    DOCARCH ___________ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ -1.2 _ 086 _ 112 ___ 13.9
    JCXBXC ____ (-5) _____13.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.5 _ 105 _ 115 ___ 14.9
    200motels ___________13.3 _ 23.7 _+1.6 _ 081 _ 084 ___ 13.2
    M.T. Cranium ________ 13.2 _ 25.2 _ -1.5 _ 060 _ 115 ___ 13.7
    john mac ___ (-3) ____ 13.2 _ 23.9 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 16.0
    Sunflower3 __________ 13.2 _ 23.8 _ -1.8 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 14.1

    NormaL _____________13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.6

    Dasa29 _____________13.1 _ 24.9 _+1.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 13.5
    Rameire ___ (-2) _____13.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 106 _ 089 ___ 14.0
    BLIZZARD7 _________ 12.8 _ 25.0 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.9


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,114 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    I see Phoenix Park reached 25.1c yesterday. That could well/easily be the highest of the month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I see Phoenix Park reached 25.1c yesterday. That could well/easily be the highest of the month.

    A lot of hot air circulating during the All Ireland, hopefully will get rejected :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I'll have a full report on the first week tomorrow, but IMT after six days is only 13.5 C and today won't increase that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After seven days ...

    IMT is 13.2 which is 0.8 below normal for the week.

    MAX 25.1 and MIN 2.1 (I think, likely won't hold to end of month anyway).

    PRC was 39% of normal for the week but is likely closer to 70% after today's rain.

    SUN was 95% of normal (569/600).


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After 14 days ...

    IMT on 13.4 (13.38) with the second week at 13.6, right on the normal value.

    MAX 25.1 and MIN 2.1, that could hold on for a while yet.

    PRC now up to 73% with the second week at 107% (still rather dry in more populated regions, the higher values at Malin and Valentia skewed the generally 70-80% trend).

    SUN has slipped back to 87% with the second week at 79% (472/600).

    As to the IMT after 15 days, today looks to be fairly close to the average of the previous 14 and so it may not change, but it could be 13.5, the daily mean would need to be around 15 to allow that. In any case, dasa29 at 13.5 has the most likely winning guess, with 200motels (13.2) and MTC (13.7) likely to share top points along with NormaL (13.6). Will confirm this tomorrow and list the rest of the points.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The IMT for 1-15 September did creep up to 13.5 C (13.46), and only one forecast was below that value, another one right on the value, so the scoring looks like this:

    11 _ Dasa29 (bonus for exact value)

    10 _ MTC (+0.2), 200motels (-0.3) and NormaL (+0.1)

    09 _ DOCARCH, pauldry, BLIZZARD7 (all +0.4)

    08 _ Rameire and rikand (both +0.5)

    07 _ dacogawa, Adam240610, sunflower3, sdanseo and Con Sensus (all +0.6)

    06 _ waterways (+0.7)

    05 _ Joe Public (+0.8), Artane (+1.0)

    04 _ Kindred Spirit (+1.1)

    03 _ JCXBXC and sryanbruen (both +1.4)

    02 _ JPmarn (+1.5), mickger844posts (+1.6)

    01 _ MrSkinner (+1.7) and Bsal (+1.9).

    00 _ Johnmac (+2.5)


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