Heatwave for end of July?

Published at 10:00, 19 July
(Next update at 10:00, 26 July)
Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

A dodgy start but summer is again visible

This first week of the four will produce rain a-plenty, some thunder, Met Office warnings and limited area hotness. For the following three weeks, pressure should build and the sun is still strong so warm, dry weather looks likely.
Monday 19 July 2010 to Sunday 25 July 2010
Diagonal division

With a rain-bearing front straddling the UK through Wales and northern England, the week starts with Met Office warnings of heavy rain.
Summer heat will build in England, south of this rain band to give temperatures in the high 20s in for example London and Cambridge.
From Tuesday to Thursday, a flabby low pressure area will allow warm sunshine between slow-moving heavy showers. The real heat in eastern England will be swept away in a flurry of thunderstorms late Tuesday.
Highland Scotland has something of an exception with a significant northerly wind, rain and temperatures in the mid-teens at best.
Then to end the week, pressure starts to build, the northerly is cut off and the sun can be bolder.

Monday 26 July 2010 to Sunday 1 August 2010
A tenuous ridge of high pressure

An extension of the Azores high keeps the south of the UK dry and warm by day with reasonable sunshine. Model indications are that pressure will be low in the north of the UK. What isn't obvious is whether this will be significant in terms of wind. As far as temperature, sunshine and rain are concerned, the prognosis is - all average!

Monday 2 August 2010 to Sunday 15 August 2010
Looks like a continuation

Maybe unexpectedly, given what's happened so far this year, but with low confidence, settled, sunny and increasingly warm weather inhabits the south of the UK. Spells of rain still seem likely in the north. "The north" for these purposes is probably only Highland Scotland.

Next week

We would by this time be overdue for an Atlantic episode of rain, but there is no reason to think that'll happen...
Published at 10:00, 19 July
(Next update at 10:00, 26 July)
Written by Rob McElwee

Summary

A dodgy start but summer is again visible

This first week of the four will produce rain a-plenty, some thunder, Met Office warnings and limited area hotness. For the following three weeks, pressure should build and the sun is still strong so warm, dry weather looks likely.
Monday 19 July 2010 to Sunday 25 July 2010
Diagonal division

With a rain-bearing front straddling the UK through Wales and northern England, the week starts with Met Office warnings of heavy rain.
Summer heat will build in England, south of this rain band to give temperatures in the high 20s in for example London and Cambridge.
From Tuesday to Thursday, a flabby low pressure area will allow warm sunshine between slow-moving heavy showers. The real heat in eastern England will be swept away in a flurry of thunderstorms late Tuesday.
Highland Scotland has something of an exception with a significant northerly wind, rain and temperatures in the mid-teens at best.
Then to end the week, pressure starts to build, the northerly is cut off and the sun can be bolder.

Monday 26 July 2010 to Sunday 1 August 2010
A tenuous ridge of high pressure

An extension of the Azores high keeps the south of the UK dry and warm by day with reasonable sunshine. Model indications are that pressure will be low in the north of the UK. What isn't obvious is whether this will be significant in terms of wind. As far as temperature, sunshine and rain are concerned, the prognosis is - all average!

Monday 2 August 2010 to Sunday 15 August 2010
Looks like a continuation

Maybe unexpectedly, given what's happened so far this year, but with low confidence, settled, sunny and increasingly warm weather inhabits the south of the UK. Spells of rain still seem likely in the north. "The north" for these purposes is probably only Highland Scotland.

Next week

We would by this time be overdue for an Atlantic episode of rain, but there is no reason to think that'll happen...