Property Market 2018

Bob24 · 14-06-2018 2:19pm

dudara wrote: »

as I said, this is based on my experience of the areas I am looking in, and the price bracket that I am looking in. I did not say it was indicative as a whole, as it clearly isn’t. I do believe that for certain profiles, the market is plateauing.

Yeah I think the market is really not uniform. In my area of “expertise”, I am not really seeing a slowdown.

From my experience and what I am reading I think very high demand areas close to the city centre are still going strong as well as maybe the cheapsest options across the city.

The_Conductor · 14-06-2018 2:44pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah I think the market is really not uniform. In my area of “expertise”, I am not really seeing a slowdown.

From my experience and what I am reading I think very high demand areas close to the city centre are still going strong as well as maybe the cheapsest options across the city.

The upper end is definitely gone very very soft- even in premium locations- however, its hard to definitively say a lot- given the low volumes involved.

Bob24 · 14-06-2018 2:50pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

The upper end is definitely gone very very soft- even in premium locations- however, its hard to definitively say a lot- given the low volumes involved.

That’s what I am reading about places like SCD indeed. But premium properties (especially apartments) in central areas still seem to be going pretty strong to me. The only area I personally follow is Grand Canal Dock, but David McWilliams made a more general statement about central locations in its latest piece I linked a few days ago. Over there from what I can see price are still rising and properties selling fast. I think this is due to the fact that new jobs (including well paid ones) have been rapidly being added to the area (and continue to be), and while there are a few high end new builds beeing completed the housing stock is not increasing nearly as fast. This means there is still margin for (already sky high) rents to increase and thus for investors to pay more to purchase properties (and what’s not helping is that a lot of new housing units there don’t even go for sale on the open market as entire developments are being purchased by corporate entities).

dudara · 14-06-2018 3:09pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

Out if interest, what areas/property types/price bracket are plateauing?

Without going into too much detail, houses in South Dublin City and medium-high(lower end) price brackets.

M.Cribben · 14-06-2018 3:57pm

Property at the extreme upper end of the scale will always be more difficult to shift as the pool of people with that kind of money is quite small in Ireland.

The cap seems to be around 4 - 5 million for the most expensive properties in the country.
This is 15 - 30 million in other EU capital cities.
For example, if we were in London or Paris these type of houses would be fetching at least 10 million:
http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/drumcondra/138-upper-drumcondra-road-drumcondra-dublin-1744857/
http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/castleknock/6-homeleigh-porterstown-castleknock-dublin-1579309/
In that respect I think there's actually value at the upper end of the market because you're not really competing with anyone for the house. i'll go back to my daydreaming

beauf · 14-06-2018 4:16pm

The top end illustrates thats Dublin isn't really on a par with more expensive cities in terms of location. You can only talk it up so far.

beauf · 14-06-2018 4:19pm

We are also seeing top end properties being crammed onto sites way too small for the price tag. That would be ok if they were central but they are doing this out in the suburbs. Its just has a bad vibe to it.

Mickiemcfist · 14-06-2018 4:39pm

beauf wrote: »

The top end illustrates thats Dublin isn't really on a par with more expensive cities in terms of location. You can only talk it up so far.

Dublin is a low to middle class city, even our top earners pale in comparison. London has guys on a billion a year, a lot of time will have to pass before we get there. If ever.

Diarmuid · 14-06-2018 4:44pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

London has guys on a billion a year,

I think you're mixing your b's and m's.

Mickiemcfist · 14-06-2018 4:56pm

Diarmuid wrote: »

I think you're mixing your b's and m's.

No I'm not, Michael Platt at Bluecrest to name one

Cyrus · 14-06-2018 5:22pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Diarmuid wrote: »

I think you're mixing your b's and m's.

No I'm not, Michael Platt at Bluecrest to name one

His net worth is less than many of our own billionaires

M.Cribben · 14-06-2018 5:26pm

Cyrus wrote: »

His net worth is less than many of our own billionaires

Most of the Irish billionaires don't live here though

Cyrus · 14-06-2018 5:31pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

Cyrus wrote: »

His net worth is less than many of our own billionaires

Most of the Irish billionaires don't live here though

They are here for around 180 days a year the same as that guy is in London I’d imagine ðŸ˜‚

Mickiemcfist · 14-06-2018 5:34pm

Cyrus wrote: »

His net worth is less than many of our own billionaires

My comment was on annual earnings of one individual, not net worth.

However the majority of the serious wealth on our rich list are Irish for tax purposes or don't live here at all so don't really count towards our cost of housing

Cyrus · 14-06-2018 5:44pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Cyrus wrote: »

His net worth is less than many of our own billionaires

My comment was on annual earnings of one individual, not net worth.

However the majority of the serious wealth on our rich list are Irish for tax purposes or don't live here at all so don't really count towards our cost of housing

That’s the point he made 1bn one year he obviously isn’t making it every year !

You don’t think Dermot Desmond Denis o Brien et al have houses in Dublin ?

Mickiemcfist · 14-06-2018 5:51pm

Cyrus wrote: »

That’s the point he made 1bn one year he obviously isn’t making it every year !

You don’t think Dermot Desmond Denis o Brien et al have houses in Dublin ?

Familiar with the word "majority"?

Anyway the reason that one particular HFM made so much this year is he paid all his investors out & ran it as a personal fund, so those 1bn+ earnings will continue should the firm perform as they have been.

Regardless, I'm not arguing any more on who gets paid more, top Dublin earners or top London, if you want to do your own research you're free to use Google.

Cyrus · 14-06-2018 6:22pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Cyrus wrote: »

That’s the point he made 1bn one year he obviously isn’t making it every year !

You don’t think Dermot Desmond Denis o Brien et al have houses in Dublin ?

Familiar with the word "majority"?

Anyway the reason that one particular HFM made so much this year is he paid all his investors out & ran it as a personal fund, so those 1bn+ earnings will continue should the firm perform as they have been.

Regardless, I'm not arguing any more on who gets paid more, top Dublin earners or top London, if you want to do your own research you're free to use Google.

Sorry I bow to your obvious extensive knowledge of everything from google

You win

Cyrus · 14-06-2018 6:25pm

Although you’ll find the majority of the top 10 in the Irish rich list have homes in Ireland

Feel free to use google to do your own research

handlemaster · 14-06-2018 7:57pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2018/

prices continue going up

Meanwhile in Dublin, it can be seen slowdown due to higher supply and affordability. I believe we should see annual increase falling to one digit in Dublin in 3-4 months from now.

not a chance. will continue for at least another two/3years

Samuel T. Cogley · 14-06-2018 8:26pm

I think (hope) we'll start to see the bottom end continue to rise as people move into areas they typically wouldn't have considered. Apartments look like they're taking off - I expect (hope) 1 beds will start to rise in more sharply than the rather sluggish pace so far. Any sign of the 25% deposit requirement being lifted - it shouldn't but still...

beauf · 14-06-2018 8:53pm

really hope it doesn't.

Marius34 · 14-06-2018 9:47pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Marius34 wrote: »

Meanwhile in Dublin, it can be seen slowdown due to higher supply and affordability. I believe we should see annual increase falling to one digit in Dublin in 3-4 months from now.

not a chance. will continue for at least another two/3years

I'll get back with this on the 09/10/2018 for CSO August 2018 Report. Add to your calendar to check it back. :-)

CalRobert · 14-06-2018 10:22pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

The cap seems to be around 4 - 5 million for the most expensive properties in the country.
This is 15 - 30 million in other EU capital cities.
For example, if we were in London or Paris these type of houses would be fetching at least 10 million:

Well, who knows what they'll get bet there's a few out there.
Asking 10 million: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/killiney/marino-avenue-west-killiney-dublin-1714791/

9 Million: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/killiney/montebello-killiney-hill-road-killiney-dublin-1536963/

Few others too.

Then again if the market's soft in that sector maybe I should offer 275k and see what happens!

Rew · 14-06-2018 11:42pm

Those houses and the people that buy them are few and far between. Innishcorrig in Dalkey was asking €10.5m apparently it got ~€8m (no sign of it on the PPR).

Here is a nice Dalkey house down 500k:
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/back-to-the-future-home-in-dalkey-with-500k-price-drop-1.3528077

sightband · 15-06-2018 12:12am

Rew wrote: »

Those houses and the people that buy them are few and far between. Innishcorrig in Dalkey was asking €10.5m apparently it got ~€8m (no sign of it on the PPR).

Here is a nice Dalkey house down 500k:
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/back-to-the-future-home-in-dalkey-with-500k-price-drop-1.3528077

what a horrible f*ckin kip, looks like a combination of terminal 2 in dublin airport and dundrum town centre. shame we don’t have serious earthquakes here for a bit of devine intervention in getting something like that levelled in a beautiful part of the country.

KevinCavan · 15-06-2018 12:20am

Is there any logic in the belief that the more insane the property market gets, the closer we are to the next property crash?

Bob24 · 15-06-2018 3:34am

KevinCavan wrote: »

Is there any logic in the belief that the more insane the property market gets, the closer we are to the next property crash?

I would put it differently: the more insane the property market gets, the stronger the next property crash will be.

i.e. IMO price inflation doesn't tell you how close we are to a crash but gives an indication of how strong a potential crash would be.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 15-06-2018 7:46am

Bob24 wrote: »

I would put it differently: the more insane the property market gets, the stronger the next property crash will be.

i.e. IMO price inflation doesn't tell you how close we are to a crash but give an indication of how strong a potential crash would be.

I'm still not buying that we are going to have a crash. Price inflation is driven by lack of supply and credit is largely in check. Barring a sudden external shock (which granted is looking more likely by the day) I don't see any driver to decrease prices.

Bob24 · 15-06-2018 8:03am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

I'm still not buying that we are going to have a crash. Price inflation is driven by lack of supply and credit is largely in check. Barring a sudden external shock (which granted is looking more likely by the day) I don't see any driver to decrease prices.

Yes agreed there is currently nothing internally pointing towards a crash and it would be caused by external factors (hence why I’m saying price inflation gives an idea of how strong a crash would be but not about when it would happen, which is very hard to predict as it depends on too many external factors).

Ray Palmer · 15-06-2018 8:55am

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes agreed there is currently nothing internally pointing towards a crash and it would be caused by external factors (hence why I’m saying price inflation gives an idea of how strong a crash would be but not about when it would happen, which is very hard to predict as it depends on too many external factors).

It really depends on quantity of sales in the end. Anybody any idea of how many sales have been going on over the last while. A lot of discussion about the crash and negative equity referred to people buying at the peak. As far as I remember the sales at the peak prices were a lot smaller than people spoke about. They certainly made it sound like everyone bought at the peak and had trouble paying loans back.

I am pretty sure the quantity of sales now are still relatively low. So if there is a sudden price crash how many people are going to be affected this time?

It would cause the housing crisis to get much worse as there won't be anybody investing in construction. I can't see any of the actions by the government doing anything in a manner that is going to help in this case. It also seems like it is a very difficult thing to prepare for so I am thinking they are basically frozen to inaction as no matter what they will get attacked.

There really are some radical ideas that they should start try to help housing. the Five lamps to O'Connell Street Should be transformed into mostly Private accommodation with offers to tenants to move to other housing in the suburbs. Keep it 30% social housing but make the rest private and restrict rentals. They have already tried to keep it going as social housing several times that have failed. The community there isn't cohesive and healthy. It would reduce risk and provide housing.

Property Market 2018

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