Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 12:57am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Some scattered 1-2 cm falls but as people are saying, a rather dry look to this, the uppers look promising though. The second wave of colder air around Friday-Saturday may do better for snow showers as there's less influence of high pressure in that case.

Would expect snow pellets to be the precip of choice given the dynamics. Same look out the window but a different result on the ground (drifts of them fairly easy to create in a breeze).

Thunder seems possible too given the lapse rates likely over the 7-9 C ocean surfaces.

So for my location would it mostly be sunny or passing light showers?

It’s interesting you talk about precipitation choice. We alternate between hail/graupel and snow here... I have had northerlys in the past that were all hail despite the cold temps. What determines the form of frozen precipitation?

Birdnuts · 04-04-2021 1:51am

The severity of the air frosts next week appears to be the main issue - looks like alot of damage could be done to spring foliage over the coming days:(

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2021 3:20am

Could only give a general estimate of 30 per cent coverage for snow showers, so partly not knowing exactly your location I would be guessing entirely, if you don't get snow at your exact location then within 10-20 miles probably.

These different forms of frozen precip all depend on height of formation and rate of fall, which gives some idea of time of exposure to temperatures once they head towards the ground. GL probably knows more technical detail, I tend more towards pattern recognition. We had a day here recently with several snow pellet showers and from what I recall the atmosphere was in almost the same condition as we're expecting to see over Ireland on Monday.

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 11:31am

So, the cold spell is dead set now. It's coming. Let's look at the showery activity. Most of the snow will be in Ulster.

ICON:

Monday looks to have light snow showers, starting sunny and becoming more frequent towards the evening as lower heights move SW:

By midnight the shower activity picks up significantly, evening making it as far south as Belfast:

Tuesday is also showery:

Arpege:

Arpege Monday, a few showers:

Arpege also shows this uptake tomorrow night:

HIRLAM:

WRF:

So, interestingly despite the high pressure and heights, all models actually show snow showers. Irritatingly it'll be one of those annoying days with a high max in the early hours that does not represent the temps throughout the day. Hopefully the temp here is below 5c by midnight.

up for anything · 04-04-2021 11:36am

Ah FFS! It's my birthday tomorrow. Should I cancel the outdoor picnic?

:(:(

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 11:37am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Could only give a general estimate of 30 per cent coverage for snow showers, so partly not knowing exactly your location I would be guessing entirely, if you don't get snow at your exact location then within 10-20 miles probably.

These different forms of frozen precip all depend on height of formation and rate of fall, which gives some idea of time of exposure to temperatures once they head towards the ground. GL probably knows more technical detail, I tend more towards pattern recognition. We had a day here recently with several snow pellet showers and from what I recall the atmosphere was in almost the same condition as we're expecting to see over Ireland on Monday.

I live to the NE of the Limavady area, i'm not saying exactly where as I have creepers from reddit stalking me.

I'm just curious to see if there was a way for me to identify what type of frozen precipitation falls. All material I read references a warmer layer, but in most situations with the graupel there is no warm layer looking at the sounding.

I have seen graupel at high elevations that remained below freezing.

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 11:42am

up for anything wrote: »

Ah FFS! It's my birthday tomorrow. Should I cancel the outdoor picnic? :(:(

No, most of the south will be sunny with tepid temps. Potentially you could see a light graupel shower at best.

RocketRaccoon · 04-04-2021 12:57pm

It's hard to believe there is cold weather coming. I'm sunburnt from working in the garden yesterday and the sun is splitting the rocks again today here in Clare.

04-04-2021 1:07pm

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

It's hard to believe there is cold weather coming. I'm sunburnt from working in the garden yesterday and the sun is splitting the rocks again today here in Clare.

Living in the Banner like yourself, also been digging, composting and planting recently. This cold spell is a major headache, moved the pots en masse into the shed this morning as a precaution. An arctic blast is utterly useless this time of year, sun too powerful for any snow to stick long. Every downgrade heartily welcome, winter can kindly frig off until November.

pad199207 · 04-04-2021 1:10pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Living in the Banner like yourself, also been digging, composting and planting recently. This cold spell is a major headache, moved the pots en masse into the shed this morning as a precaution. An arctic blast is utterly useless this time of year, sun too powerful for any snow to stick long. Every downgrade heartily welcome, winter can kindly frig off until November.

Indeed and thankfully downgrades have happened leading up to this. It looks to be a mainly dry chilly snap too which also helps with the gardens. Cold and Wet would be significantly worse.

Gonzo · 04-04-2021 1:30pm

Have really enjoyed the mild sunshine over the past week, as others have said thankfully this event has been downgraded to almost nothing at this stage and a mostly dry week is in store. I love wintry weather but in the middle of April no thanks. Roll on warmth and lots more dry weather.

Tyrone212 · 04-04-2021 1:58pm

I like extremes so would rather have had this proper. Its a pity it shifted Eastwards but its only weather. Warning for the Northern half of Scotland, what could have been.

Frequent showers will affect northern Scotland. Here, 2-5cm may accumulate at low levels away from north-facing coasts, with 5-10cm above 150m, and 15cm possible on highest ground above 300m. The strong winds will cause drifting of lying snow, and blizzard conditions at times on higher ground.

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 2:00pm

I think we are diverging off the topic in hand..

SEPT 23 1989 · 04-04-2021 2:03pm

Another damp squib thankfully

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 2:04pm

Cold front proper has arrived into the south of the Faroe Islands. Look at that drop from 7c to 0c in daylight hours!

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IVGUR1

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 2:07pm

It’s kinda frustrating when you get people coming in saying “yay downgrade” when you have an interest in cold snaps and snow, derailing the thread off it’s topic of discussion.

Others are then already dismissing it.. just because it’s not going to snow in your region doesn’t mean the parties over for us.. as the charts have shown above, Ulster will have snow showers at various points over the next few days.

(Almost implying that the rest of us should take stock and move on because it’s not snowing in your region)

This is a very cold airmass, with a very tight gradient. Looking forward to the cold front coming through.

04-04-2021 2:27pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It’s kinda frustrating when you get people coming in saying “yay downgrade” when you have an interest in cold snaps and snow, derailing the thread off it’s topic of discussion.

Last I checked you're not moderating this forum. This cold spell holds interest for a variety of reasons, for example yours in the possibility of snow falling and mine that my potted plants don't die off prematurely by sharp/severe frosts. Both different but perfectly valid angles at examining a meteorological event.

sparrowcar · 04-04-2021 2:33pm

Delighted this came to nothing. Way to much clutching at straws going on.

Roll on summer time

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 2:34pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Last I checked you're not moderating this forum. This cold spell holds interest for a variety of reasons, for example yours in the possibility of snow falling and mine that my potted plants don't die off prematurely by sharp/severe frosts. Both different but perfectly valid angles at examining a meteorological event.

There is a tone in these posts that we should be quiet and stop discussing the incoming weather because it’s not affecting some..

Gaoth Laidir · 04-04-2021 2:35pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It’s kinda frustrating when you get people coming in saying “yay downgrade” when you have an interest in cold snaps and snow, derailing the thread off it’s topic of discussion.

Others are then already dismissing it.. just because it’s not going to snow in your region doesn’t mean the parties over for us.. as the charts have shown above, Ulster will have snow showers at various points over the next few days.

(Almost implying that the rest of us should take stock and move on because it’s not snowing in your region)

This is a very cold airmass, with a very tight gradient. Looking forward to the cold front coming through.

You've a lot to learn. What people say makes no difference to whether you're going to see snow or not. Everyone has as much right to post their opinion as you do, and if that is that they don't want to see snow then deal with it.

It's not your game. Don't storm off down the road with the ball under your arm.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-04-2021 2:38pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is a tone in these posts that we should be quiet and stop discussing the incoming weather because it’s not affecting some..

Please quote those posts that are telling you to be quiet. I haven't seen any.

Arturo Delgado · 04-04-2021 3:37pm

Cold weather in April is always a risk, but I'll welcome the end of the upcoming cold spell. Not good for the garden, sets growth back. Give me frosty cold snowy weather in December and January, and we got a little bit this year at least.

Gonzo · 04-04-2021 3:43pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is a tone in these posts that we should be quiet and stop discussing the incoming weather because it’s not affecting some..

Plenty of people here are delighted that we are not due a week of cold rain, sleet, hail and snow showers mid way through Spring. People are entitled to that opinion and it's relevant to the topic. Same for when we get endless weeks of rain and wind from the west,not everyone likes it and many wish it away. Same when we get those rare occassions of very warm and humid conditions in the summer, many of us like temperatures above 25C but not everyone does and we do get posts wishing warm weather away. They are entitled to their opinions.

The fact that this week will be mostly dry away from western and northern counties is relevant because that is weather we are getting over the next week, mostly dry but cold and potentially frosty. It will be a great week to get more gardening done and go for walks while wrapping up well due to the cold temperatures.

Danno · 04-04-2021 3:53pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is a tone in these posts that we should be quiet and stop discussing the incoming weather because it’s not affecting some..

Now now, there is no call for that. There are moderators here for dealing with posts that are of the aggravating tone. There is also a report post function if you feel a moderator has missed something - use that, or even PM one of the moderators for a direct conversation with us.

Back to the weather and the incoming arctic blast here forth please.

smokie72 · 04-04-2021 3:59pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It’s kinda frustrating when you get people coming in saying “yay downgrade” when you have an interest in cold snaps and snow, derailing the thread off it’s topic of discussion.

Others are then already dismissing it.. just because it’s not going to snow in your region doesn’t mean the parties over for us.. as the charts have shown above, Ulster will have snow showers at various points over the next few days.

(Almost implying that the rest of us should take stock and move on because it’s not snowing in your region)

This is a very cold airmass, with a very tight gradient. Looking forward to the cold front coming through.

I suppose Nqp15hhu as a proud Ulsterman you wouldn't be long getting frostbit in that airmass
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLMrHRuhxO4

Looks like we be getting some cold nights ahead so better cover up those delicate plants in the garden.

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 4:51pm

Now -3c at sea level on an Atlantic island in the Faroe Islands! In the middle of the day!

Impressive!!

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IVGUR1

squarecircles · 04-04-2021 4:53pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It’s kinda frustrating when you get people coming in saying “yay downgrade” when you have an interest in cold snaps and snow, derailing the thread off it’s topic of discussion.

Others are then already dismissing it.. just because it’s not going to snow in your region doesn’t mean the parties over for us.. as the charts have shown above, Ulster will have snow showers at various points over the next few days.

(Almost implying that the rest of us should take stock and move on because it’s not snowing in your region)

This is a very cold airmass, with a very tight gradient. Looking forward to the cold front coming through.

If it's not happening directly over the houses of a few people around the pale then it's completely pointless. Thats the general tone of the narrative on boards. Ie weather, that's why I rarely check or comment anymore in the threads not to the mention the person that just moans continously all year long about not getting their ideal weather conditions right over their house in meath

It would give you a dry diorhea.

Doctors room ghost · 04-04-2021 4:57pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Last I checked you're not moderating this forum. This cold spell holds interest for a variety of reasons, for example yours in the possibility of snow falling and mine that my potted plants don't die off prematurely by sharp/severe frosts. Both different but perfectly valid angles at examining a meteorological event.

I’m just here waiting for the next good storm to advertise my trampoline for sale.

sryanbruen · 04-04-2021 5:08pm

-4C recently at Torshavn in the Faroe Isles with an onshore wind, impressive. 850s around -17C.

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 5:09pm

The lower thickness values are slightly further west on Tuesday.

Tuesday is the best chance for most to see snow.

Tyrone212 · 04-04-2021 5:09pm

Tonight

Cloudy to begin tonight with scattered outbreaks of light rain moving southwards, followed by much colder air. Scattered showers of sleet or snow will move into Ulster later in the night with clearer weather developing. Northerly winds will be moderate to fresh, strong at times on Ulster coasts. Lowest temperatures of -1 to +3 degrees, coldest in Ulster with frost forming in sheltered areas.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-04-2021 5:11pm

squarecircles wrote: »

If it's not happening directly over the houses of a few people around the pale then it's completely pointless. Thats the general tone of the narrative on boards. Ie weather, that's why I rarely check or comment anymore in the threads not to the mention the person that just moans continously all year long about not getting their ideal weather conditions right over their house in meath

It would give you a dry diorhea.

And they're all the better for it.

Anyway, here's the UKMO's ballooning forecast for Draperstown (mid-Ulster) this evening and tomorrow morning. You're welcome, N.

Area Forecast: NORTH
Forecast period: 04 APRIL 2021 1600-2100 UTC
Regional Summary
Moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly surface winds across the region, strongest in the north. A cold front will push southwards across Scotland, reaching Northern Ireland and northern England by the end of the period. This will bring generally light outbreaks of rain, with broken stratocumulus, bases 1200-1800ft and scattered/broken stratus, bases 600-800ft. Clearer behind but wintry showers following shortly after into northern Scotland, with scattered/broken cumulus/cumulonimbus bases 400-1200ft.
Sea Breeze: Nil

Inversions Min/Max (ft)
Widespread inversion England and Northern Ireland, and southern Scotland at first, bases 2000-3000ft, tops 4000ft.

Lee waves generated over Ne Ireland
Height at strongest wave activity (ft): 4000
Wave amplitude (Nil/Moderate/Severe): Mod
Risk of Rotors: No

Outlook for period:
DAWN TO DAWN+3 HOURS, 05 APRIL 2021: Frequent wintry showers across Northern Ireland and the northern half of Scotland with scattered/broken cumulus or cumulonimbus. Largely dry and clear across England and southern Scotland. Moderate to strong northwesterly surface winds, strongest around coasts.

nacho libre · 04-04-2021 5:28pm

squarecircles wrote: »

If it's not happening directly over the houses of a few people around the pale then it's completely pointless. Thats the general tone of the narrative on boards. Ie weather, that's why I rarely check or comment anymore in the threads not to the mention the person that just moans continously all year long about not getting their ideal weather conditions right over their house in meath

It would give you a dry diorhea.

Maybe you see in others what you are blind to in yourself; in other words everyone priorities the weather in their own area, including you. With this in mind you were very happy when you had several hours of snow back in February, it probably did not bother you too much that others missed out.

nacho libre · 04-04-2021 5:32pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The lower thickness values are slightly further west on Tuesday.

Tuesday is the best chance for most to see snow.

Yes. Tuesday looks the best time for snow a bit more widely. Perhaps later in the week we might have another chance?

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 5:39pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes. Tuesday looks the best time for snow a bit more widely. Perhaps later in the week we might have another chance?

Friday on the 12z does look snowy for Ulster and northern Connaught due to the lower thickness and air pressure. The 850’s are warmer though.

After the dramatic last minute flip this week I won’t be holding out on it though!

Oneiric 3 · 04-04-2021 5:49pm

Early on April 5th 2018, temps fell to below -5.0c in the midlands:

I'd be very surprised if we even came close that under this current spell, but if we do, sheltered spots of the east and southeast would be the areas favoured I reckon.

Oneiric 3 · 04-04-2021 5:55pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

After the dramatic last minute flip this week I won’t be holding out on it though!

You are young, naïve and starry eyed. With time, you'll learn to become as bitterly sceptical and resentful of anything that shows anything remotely interesting regarding the Irish weather as the rest of us because 99.9% of the time, disappointment and dejection will prevail!

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 6:02pm

Hmm

Gonzo · 04-04-2021 6:03pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You are young, naïve and starry eyed. With time, you'll learn to become as bitterly sceptical and resentful of anything that shows anything remotely interesting regarding the Irish weather as the rest of us because 99.9% of the time, disappointment and dejection will prevail!

This is true for so many weather types beyond 'normal Irish weather'. Cold snaps, snow events, heatwaves, plumes, northerlies, easterlies, thunderstorms nearly always get downgraded to a more tame version bar a few exceptions. Our geography/location in particular plays a big part in this throughout the year, especially in winter and summer.

Beechwoodspark · 04-04-2021 6:04pm

Stunning azure blue skies and sunshine here in clane but with a chilling wind

Cluedo Monopoly · 04-04-2021 6:05pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You are young, naïve and starry eyed. With time, you'll learn to become as bitterly sceptical and resentful of anything that shows anything remotely interesting regarding the Irish weather as the rest of us because 99.9% of the time, disappointment and dejection will prevail!

Ah ffs, will ye stop trying to wind up the lad. Live and let live.

Gonzo · 04-04-2021 6:05pm

The windchill is really getting going now. No heat left in that sun. Sitting outside now requires a jacket to stay warm.

ZX7R · 04-04-2021 6:07pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The windchill is really getting going now. No heat left in that sun. Sitting outside now requires a jacket to stay warm.

Vodka.....

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 6:08pm

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Ah ffs, will ye stop trying to wind up the lad. Live and let live.

Best of all is that he’s naw an old man is he? Just bitter he’s getting no snow.

sryanbruen · 04-04-2021 6:11pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You are young, naïve and starry eyed. With time, you'll learn to become as bitterly sceptical and resentful of anything that shows anything remotely interesting regarding the Irish weather as the rest of us because 99.9% of the time, disappointment and dejection will prevail!

Still remember all the times I was such 'starry eyed' and fell into the trap that is our climate with all these fantasy model runs. Always found the constant pessimism very irritating but years of experience shows me otherwise now...

Anyway.. current scenes in Argir, Faroe Isles.

Webcam screenshot from Windy.com.

Oneiric 3 · 04-04-2021 6:16pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Best of all is that he’s naw an old man is he? Just bitter he’s getting no snow.

I've been rumbled...

smokie72 · 04-04-2021 6:40pm

Go easy on Nqp15huu...for such a small island we can have very diverse weather from one end to the other. Anybody living near the north coast is obviously more prone to wintry weather. Any information from our northern brethen is good to know. We could do with more weather enthusiasts from Ulster. From reading other Nqp15uu posts on other forums he is a passionate young man. Might not always agree but he has interest in meterology.

Enjoy the cool dry weather while it lasts

Nqp15hhu · 04-04-2021 6:48pm

No sign of the first cold front that was supposed to arrive at 6pm. Met Office predict heavy rain now, yet it is dry with nothing of note further north.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-04-2021 6:53pm

UKMO airfield warnings for Ulster.

Derry Eglinton:
Snow
Issued at: Sun 04 Apr 2021 - 17:33 UTC
Valid from: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 00:00 UTC
Valid to: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 06:00 UTC
SNOW (OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED) SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD.SLIGHT/MODERATE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0-1CM. SNOW TYPE WET. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 600M IN THE SNOWFALL, WITH A MINIMUM VISIBILITY OF 1500M.

Belfast Aldergrove
Snow
Issued at: Sun 04 Apr 2021 - 15:31 UTC
Valid from: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 02:00 UTC
Valid to: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 06:00 UTC
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD.SLIGHT/MODERATE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0-1CM. SNOW TYPE WET. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 600M IN THE SNOWFALL, WITH A MINIMUM VISIBILITY OF 2000M.

Belfast City
Snow
Issued at: Sun 04 Apr 2021 - 17:34 UTC
Valid from: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 02:00 UTC
Valid to: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 06:00 UTC
SLIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

pauldry · 04-04-2021 6:54pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Still remember all the times I was such 'starry eyed' and fell into the trap that is our climate with all these fantasy model runs. Always found the constant pessimism very irritating but years of experience shows me otherwise now...

Anyway.. current scenes in Argir, Faroe Isles.

Webcam screenshot from Windy.com.

This might actually bring snow to some Northern areas sryan. That's a big drop in Faroes isnt it?

Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

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