January 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2014 9:17pm #1

1. Predict the "IMT" which is the average of temperatures at Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 average for that was 5.3 C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any met.ie station as reported end of the month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN temperature at any met.ie station as reported end of the month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the average precipitation as percentage of normal for the eleven locations (see 1 above, also Belmullet, Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) reported in Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the average sunshine as percentage of normal for the six locations reported in Monthly Summary (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

6. Predict the maximum wind gust recorded at any met.ie reporting station as confirmed in the Monthly Summary. These often occur at Mace Head, Malin Head, Belmullet or Valentia, Roches Point or Sherkin Island. As noted in the entry form, if you think in km/hr and not in knots, then estimate by taking half the value in km/hr then adding 10% to that.

You can enter the contest at the following link:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1BC4I-Ls3Bz5iGhJMzMpQb61miqw8Pmxj_4fPB5SRLAI/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

or by posting an entry in this thread.

Given the fact that the normal deadline would be New Years Day and I am a bit late posting this, we will only start to apply penalties at 1500h Friday 2nd and from then to 1500h Saturday 3rd will be 5 points only, then it increases to 5 points every half day to 1500h Sunday and 10 points per half day after that.

Good luck and welcome to new forecasters.

dacogawa · 30-12-2014 3:00am

Done! And Happy New Year everyone

Bsal · 30-12-2014 9:20pm

Done, Merry new year...I mean Happy New Year!

200motels · 31-12-2014 2:59am

Done and a Happy New Year to everyone.

omicron · 31-12-2014 6:16am

Done.

dasa29 · 31-12-2014 8:49pm

Done

lostinashford · 31-12-2014 9:20pm

Done

Rikand · 31-12-2014 10:32pm

Done!

Tae laidir · 01-01-2015 12:18pm

On immature reflection, can I change my max gust to 78knots

John mac · 01-01-2015 12:34pm

Done

Schadenfreudia · 01-01-2015 2:24pm

Done.

pauldry · 01-01-2015 9:17pm

Today was prob the max temp for january so if yer late just put in todays temperature.

DOCARCH · 01-01-2015 10:03pm

Done

mickger844posts · 01-01-2015 10:16pm

done

Jpmarn · 01-01-2015 10:34pm

Done. My car showed 14c today. I put down 14.5c as the monthly max as we're unlikely to see temperature that high for the rest of the month.

Harps · 02-01-2015 3:59am

Done

Max today was 14.3C at Oak Park according to ogimet, it looks like we might get another mild blast in the next 10 days so no guarantee today's won't be topped

rameire · 02-01-2015 10:24am

done

Lumi · 02-01-2015 11:07am

Done

John mac · 02-01-2015 2:35pm

can i change my max to 14.2

:D:D:eek::eek::eek:

;);););););););)
(only messing . as everyone could do this until 15:00)

Schadenfreudia · 02-01-2015 3:20pm

John mac wrote: »

can i change my max to 14.2 :D:D:eek::eek::eek:

;);););););););)
(only messing . as everyone could do this until 15:00)

OK. I have re-submitted with an upwardly adjusted max, of, oddly enough, 14.2.

dacogawa · 02-01-2015 7:44pm

John mac wrote: »

can i change my max to 14.2 :D:D:eek::eek::eek:

;);););););););)
(only messing . as everyone could do this until 15:00)

Darn! only just back and missed my chance to change it to 14.2, serves me right for not having my boards login on phone...

Tae laidir · 02-01-2015 7:53pm

The early bird catches a cold!

pauldry · 02-01-2015 10:04pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

The early bird catches a cold!

Think we cud get a 15 somewhere before end of january. Very tight jet at times making the mild blasts very mild but the cold ones seem to be just too far north

delw · 02-01-2015 11:48pm

done

pauldry · 05-01-2015 1:35am

delw wrote: »

done

-3.4c in casement

Could be a few days before more severe frost

The 14.2c max will get threatened on friday

dacogawa · 05-01-2015 3:56am

pauldry wrote: »

-3.4c in casement

Could be a few days before more severe frost

The 14.2c max will get threatened on friday

Come on cold January! (bank against it!)

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2015 7:13pm

I have had some delays with the December scoring so the table of entries for this month may not appear until tonight. I don't even remember what I predicted for a MAX so I probably snoozed through that one. Agree that Friday could top it slightly, 14.8 would be a rough guess there. Some nasty looking charts last night, have not had much time to look at 12z yet. But the situation over North America will be very anomalous next five days as 1060 mb high predicted to set up over northern U.S., a Greenland high could be something like 10 to 15 days away. In other words second half of this month is all of the challenge for IMT and MIN, nothing much you can do about a busted MAX.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2015 4:52am

January 2015 Forecasts
_____________________________

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max wind gust (kts)

blue5000 _______________ 8.7 _ 13.2 _ -7.1 _ 137 _ 170 ____ 68
Tae laidir _______________ 6.3 _ 13.3 _ -4.5 _ 145 _ 090 ____ 78
omicron ________________ 6.3 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 75
mickger844posts _________ 6.1 _ 14.1 _ -5.1 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 65
lostinashford _____________6.1 _ 13.3 _ -5.6 _ 096 _ 106 ____ 67
pauldry _________________6.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.0 _ 124 _ 098 ____ 65
Schadenfreudia __________ 5.7 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72
DOCARCH _______________5.6 _ 15.2 _ -6.2 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 78
Harps __________________ 5.6 _ 14.7 _ -5.9 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 81
200motels ______________ 5.6 _ 12.5 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 067 ____ 65
Bsal ___________________ 5.5 _ 14.7 _ -6.0 _ 122 _ 101 ____ 76
sunflower3 ______________ 5.5 _ 14.1 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 091 ____ 72

Con Sensus ______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 101 ____ 70

dasa29 _________________ 5.5 _ 12.0 _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 40
kindredspirit _____________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ -5.5 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 66
Lumi ____________________5.1 _ 14.4 _ -6.5 _ 096 _ 090 ____ 63
rameire _________________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -4.0 _ 130 _ 106 ____ 66
john mac ________________5.1 _ 13.8 _ -5.8 _ 103 _ 110 ____ 68
Rikand __________________5.0 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 74
Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 14.5 _-10.0_ 085 _ 125 ____ 72
M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.8 _ 13.2 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 72
jd ______________________4.6 _ 14.4 _ -7.3 _ 108 _ 103 ____ 74
delw ________ (-5) _______ 4.7 _ 14.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 47
Dacogawa _______________4.5 _ 12.1 _ -9.8 _ 099 _ 110 ____ 62
joepublic ________________3.9 _ 14.5 _ -6.9 _ 120 _ 099 ____ 75

_______________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts, can be adjusted if we get any further entries.

Tae laidir · 07-01-2015 8:39pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

On immature reflection, can I change my max gust to 78knots

Would it be possible to change my entry?

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2015 3:35am

Tae laidir wrote: »

Would it be possible to change my entry?

Yes, I probably forgot to scroll through the first page with all my other distractions (end of year in various contests). So you're okay with that change and I still had access to the table.

Schadenfreudia · 08-01-2015 11:07pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

January 2015 Forecasts
_____________________________

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max wind gust (kts)

blue5000 _______________ 8.7 _ 13.2 _ -7.1 _ 137 _ 170 ____ 68
Tae laidir _______________ 6.3 _ 13.3 _ -4.5 _ 145 _ 090 ____ 78
omicron ________________ 6.3 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 75
mickger844posts _________ 6.1 _ 14.1 _ -5.1 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 65
lostinashford _____________6.1 _ 13.3 _ -5.6 _ 096 _ 106 ____ 67
pauldry _________________6.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.0 _ 124 _ 098 ____ 65
Schadenfreudia __________ 5.7 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72
DOCARCH _______________5.6 _ 15.2 _ -6.2 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 78
Harps __________________ 5.6 _ 14.7 _ -5.9 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 81
200motels ______________ 5.6 _ 12.5 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 067 ____ 65
Bsal ___________________ 5.5 _ 14.7 _ -6.0 _ 122 _ 101 ____ 76
sunflower3 ______________ 5.5 _ 14.1 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 091 ____ 72

Con Sensus ______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 101 ____ 70

dasa29 _________________ 5.5 _ 12.0 _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 40
kindredspirit _____________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ -5.5 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 66
Lumi ____________________5.1 _ 14.4 _ -6.5 _ 096 _ 090 ____ 63
rameire _________________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -4.0 _ 130 _ 106 ____ 66
john mac ________________5.1 _ 13.8 _ -5.8 _ 103 _ 110 ____ 68
Rikand __________________5.0 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 74
Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 14.5 _-10.0_ 085 _ 125 ____ 72
M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.8 _ 13.2 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 72
jd ______________________4.6 _ 14.4 _ -7.3 _ 108 _ 103 ____ 74
delw ________ (-5) _______ 4.7 _ 14.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 47
Dacogawa _______________4.5 _ 12.1 _ -9.8 _ 099 _ 110 ____ 62
joepublic ________________3.9 _ 14.5 _ -6.9 _ 120 _ 099 ____ 75

_______________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts, can be adjusted if we get any further entries.

I see the pessimists on top; the optimists on the bottom!

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2015 3:09am

After the first week, 1-7 January ...

IMT at 6.4 C

PRC at 156%

SUN at 129%

yet to be confirmed, wind gust of 69 kts at Malin Head on 8th.

so we (you) are getting a bit more of everything so far.

Joe Public · 09-01-2015 12:22pm

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I see the pessimists on top; the optimists on the bottom!

And Con not sticking his neck out, as usual, the boring old fart!

pauldry · 09-01-2015 12:26pm

next month maybe one of us should put 45c as the IMT to ruin cons chances

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2015 2:30pm

That won't work, as he plays off median rather than mean.

Harps · 09-01-2015 9:13pm

16.2C max today at Oak Park according to ogimet, might be slightly different on the met summary but either way it's safe to say it's well above any of our guesses

Rikand · 09-01-2015 10:20pm

Harps wrote: »

16.2C max today at Oak Park according to ogimet, might be slightly different on the met summary but either way it's safe to say it's well above any of our guesses

Minimum Progression - Heyo!

Harps · 09-01-2015 11:44pm

Yep Docarch and yourself leading the way, I'm joint 3rd with bsal so keeping pace early on :pac:

pauldry · 10-01-2015 12:07am

i know the record for January is 18.1c but is it not unusual to be getting 16.2c on January 9th.

Its 15c in Madrid and theyr having a mild January

Tae laidir · 10-01-2015 8:00pm

pauldry wrote: »

i know the record for January is 18.1c but is it not unusual to be getting 16.2c on January 9th.

The following are from the Met Eireann Monthly Summaries for Max temperatures for each of the last 10 years and the date of Max:

2014..13.6..5
2013..14.1..29
2012..13.1..3
2011..12.8..15
2010..12.1..15
2009..13.1..11
2008..14.8..16&23
2007..14.6..19
2006..13.8..18
2005..14.5..15

So it would appear that 16.2 is indeed the highest by some margin in the recent past. For the warmest day to be in the second quarter is not unusual.
In fact, it would appear that it is more unusual to have the warmest day in the last quarter of the month!

DOCARCH · 14-01-2015 7:25pm

Cork AP has reported a gust of 79 kts at 1800...just thought I would highlight that.

Joe Public · 14-01-2015 7:33pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Cork AP has reported a gust of 79 kts at 1800...just thought I would highlight that.

80 or more and Harps has it in the bag ( wind bag )

DOCARCH · 14-01-2015 7:50pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Cork AP has reported a gust of 79 kts at 1800...just thought I would highlight that.

I think that may have been a typo on the part of ME...NOAA were reporting a gust of 49 kts for Cork AP at 1800.

Will see from ME report tomorrow.

Joe Public · 14-01-2015 8:21pm

They do get them

DOCARCH · 15-01-2015 9:33am

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think that may have been a typo on the part of ME...NOAA were reporting a gust of 49 kts for Cork AP at 1800.

Will see from ME report tomorrow.

I see from ME today, highest gust reported at Cork AP yesterday, was 57 kts.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

That 79 kt reported gust, on the 1800 reports yesterday, would appear to have been a typo/erroneous.

Tae laidir · 15-01-2015 9:41am

Malin reported gust of 70 at 8.00

And reported 65 in the daily summary.
And Mace Head reported 68.

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2015 3:29pm

After fourteen days ...

IMT on 6.3 (week 2 was 6.2)

PRC at 169% (week 2 was 182%)

SUN at 103% (week 2 was 77%)

MAX 16.2, MIN -4.0 (Mountdillon, 3rd)

Bsal · 20-01-2015 5:07pm

There was a couple of stations reporting -6 on the 19th

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

M.T. Cranium · 20-01-2015 6:28pm

Yes, I noted -6.2 at Grange, and is that also known as Sligo Airport? Think it must be, anyway they are new on the reporting list and have never made it into the MS as a monthly extreme site, so if not -6.1 at Casement will make one point difference to the scoring. If these hold up, seems like they could.

BTW peak wind gust may come in at 68 rather than 70 after revisions, from what I saw. There again, if that holds up.

The IMT has fallen off since report on 14th to a current (19 day) value of 5.2 and could be level 5.0 by now as that was 5.16 by my calculation. Whether it falls any further or not remains to be seen on current forecasts would say probably about level with finish or it may recover back to 5.2 or so. If so, almost bang on the recent 30-year average after a lot of ups and downs.

DOCARCH · 20-01-2015 7:03pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes, I noted -6.2 at Grange, and is that also known as Sligo Airport? Think it must be, anyway they are new on the reporting list and have never made it into the MS as a monthly extreme site, so if not -6.1 at Casement will make one point difference to the scoring. If these hold up, seems like they could.

Dunsany also reported -6.2c for the 19th. http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp Might Grange and Dunsany be the same?

I'd accept -6.2c.

I think they must the same place....from ME with regard to the Dunsany weather station....The AWS is situated within the grounds of Teasgasc Grange, Boycetown, Co Meath.

M.T. Cranium · 21-01-2015 7:52am

Okay, that makes sense, but there is a Grange in Sligo and there is a weather station that we don't see on the met-ie site but appears on meteociel maps (click on temperature, then select UK/Ireland) -- that one is near Grange which is between Ben Bulben and the Atlantic. So I thought it might be there. But the -6.2 and the other info provided above make it appear to be in Meath.

My head hurts, maybe it was just the FI portion of the GFS 00z run (check it out and make a will).

January 2015 Boards forecast contest

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