January 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2014 9:17pm #1

1. Predict the "IMT" which is the average of temperatures at Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 average for that was 5.3 C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any met.ie station as reported end of the month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN temperature at any met.ie station as reported end of the month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the average precipitation as percentage of normal for the eleven locations (see 1 above, also Belmullet, Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) reported in Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the average sunshine as percentage of normal for the six locations reported in Monthly Summary (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

6. Predict the maximum wind gust recorded at any met.ie reporting station as confirmed in the Monthly Summary. These often occur at Mace Head, Malin Head, Belmullet or Valentia, Roches Point or Sherkin Island. As noted in the entry form, if you think in km/hr and not in knots, then estimate by taking half the value in km/hr then adding 10% to that.

You can enter the contest at the following link:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1BC4I-Ls3Bz5iGhJMzMpQb61miqw8Pmxj_4fPB5SRLAI/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

or by posting an entry in this thread.

Given the fact that the normal deadline would be New Years Day and I am a bit late posting this, we will only start to apply penalties at 1500h Friday 2nd and from then to 1500h Saturday 3rd will be 5 points only, then it increases to 5 points every half day to 1500h Sunday and 10 points per half day after that.

Good luck and welcome to new forecasters.

dacogawa · 30-12-2014 3:00am

Done! And Happy New Year everyone

Bsal · 30-12-2014 9:20pm

Done, Merry new year...I mean Happy New Year!

200motels · 31-12-2014 2:59am

Done and a Happy New Year to everyone.

omicron · 31-12-2014 6:16am

Done.

dasa29 · 31-12-2014 8:49pm

Done

lostinashford · 31-12-2014 9:20pm

Done

Rikand · 31-12-2014 10:32pm

Done!

Tae laidir · 01-01-2015 12:18pm

On immature reflection, can I change my max gust to 78knots

John mac · 01-01-2015 12:34pm

Done

Schadenfreudia · 01-01-2015 2:24pm

Done.

pauldry · 01-01-2015 9:17pm

Today was prob the max temp for january so if yer late just put in todays temperature.

DOCARCH · 01-01-2015 10:03pm

Done

mickger844posts · 01-01-2015 10:16pm

done

Jpmarn · 01-01-2015 10:34pm

Done. My car showed 14c today. I put down 14.5c as the monthly max as we're unlikely to see temperature that high for the rest of the month.

Harps · 02-01-2015 3:59am

Done

Max today was 14.3C at Oak Park according to ogimet, it looks like we might get another mild blast in the next 10 days so no guarantee today's won't be topped

rameire · 02-01-2015 10:24am

done

Lumi · 02-01-2015 11:07am

Done

John mac · 02-01-2015 2:35pm

can i change my max to 14.2

:D:D:eek::eek::eek:

;);););););););)
(only messing . as everyone could do this until 15:00)

Schadenfreudia · 02-01-2015 3:20pm

John mac wrote: »

can i change my max to 14.2 :D:D:eek::eek::eek:

;);););););););)
(only messing . as everyone could do this until 15:00)

OK. I have re-submitted with an upwardly adjusted max, of, oddly enough, 14.2.

dacogawa · 02-01-2015 7:44pm

John mac wrote: »

can i change my max to 14.2 :D:D:eek::eek::eek:

;);););););););)
(only messing . as everyone could do this until 15:00)

Darn! only just back and missed my chance to change it to 14.2, serves me right for not having my boards login on phone...

Tae laidir · 02-01-2015 7:53pm

The early bird catches a cold!

pauldry · 02-01-2015 10:04pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

The early bird catches a cold!

Think we cud get a 15 somewhere before end of january. Very tight jet at times making the mild blasts very mild but the cold ones seem to be just too far north

delw · 02-01-2015 11:48pm

done

pauldry · 05-01-2015 1:35am

delw wrote: »

done

-3.4c in casement

Could be a few days before more severe frost

The 14.2c max will get threatened on friday

dacogawa · 05-01-2015 3:56am

pauldry wrote: »

-3.4c in casement

Could be a few days before more severe frost

The 14.2c max will get threatened on friday

Come on cold January! (bank against it!)

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2015 7:13pm

I have had some delays with the December scoring so the table of entries for this month may not appear until tonight. I don't even remember what I predicted for a MAX so I probably snoozed through that one. Agree that Friday could top it slightly, 14.8 would be a rough guess there. Some nasty looking charts last night, have not had much time to look at 12z yet. But the situation over North America will be very anomalous next five days as 1060 mb high predicted to set up over northern U.S., a Greenland high could be something like 10 to 15 days away. In other words second half of this month is all of the challenge for IMT and MIN, nothing much you can do about a busted MAX.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2015 4:52am

January 2015 Forecasts
_____________________________

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max wind gust (kts)

blue5000 _______________ 8.7 _ 13.2 _ -7.1 _ 137 _ 170 ____ 68
Tae laidir _______________ 6.3 _ 13.3 _ -4.5 _ 145 _ 090 ____ 78
omicron ________________ 6.3 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 75
mickger844posts _________ 6.1 _ 14.1 _ -5.1 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 65
lostinashford _____________6.1 _ 13.3 _ -5.6 _ 096 _ 106 ____ 67
pauldry _________________6.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.0 _ 124 _ 098 ____ 65
Schadenfreudia __________ 5.7 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72
DOCARCH _______________5.6 _ 15.2 _ -6.2 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 78
Harps __________________ 5.6 _ 14.7 _ -5.9 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 81
200motels ______________ 5.6 _ 12.5 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 067 ____ 65
Bsal ___________________ 5.5 _ 14.7 _ -6.0 _ 122 _ 101 ____ 76
sunflower3 ______________ 5.5 _ 14.1 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 091 ____ 72

Con Sensus ______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 101 ____ 70

dasa29 _________________ 5.5 _ 12.0 _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 40
kindredspirit _____________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ -5.5 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 66
Lumi ____________________5.1 _ 14.4 _ -6.5 _ 096 _ 090 ____ 63
rameire _________________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -4.0 _ 130 _ 106 ____ 66
john mac ________________5.1 _ 13.8 _ -5.8 _ 103 _ 110 ____ 68
Rikand __________________5.0 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 74
Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 14.5 _-10.0_ 085 _ 125 ____ 72
M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.8 _ 13.2 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 72
jd ______________________4.6 _ 14.4 _ -7.3 _ 108 _ 103 ____ 74
delw ________ (-5) _______ 4.7 _ 14.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 47
Dacogawa _______________4.5 _ 12.1 _ -9.8 _ 099 _ 110 ____ 62
joepublic ________________3.9 _ 14.5 _ -6.9 _ 120 _ 099 ____ 75

_______________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts, can be adjusted if we get any further entries.

Tae laidir · 07-01-2015 8:39pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

On immature reflection, can I change my max gust to 78knots

Would it be possible to change my entry?

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2015 3:35am

Tae laidir wrote: »

Would it be possible to change my entry?

Yes, I probably forgot to scroll through the first page with all my other distractions (end of year in various contests). So you're okay with that change and I still had access to the table.

Schadenfreudia · 08-01-2015 11:07pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

January 2015 Forecasts
_____________________________

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max wind gust (kts)

blue5000 _______________ 8.7 _ 13.2 _ -7.1 _ 137 _ 170 ____ 68
Tae laidir _______________ 6.3 _ 13.3 _ -4.5 _ 145 _ 090 ____ 78
omicron ________________ 6.3 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 75
mickger844posts _________ 6.1 _ 14.1 _ -5.1 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 65
lostinashford _____________6.1 _ 13.3 _ -5.6 _ 096 _ 106 ____ 67
pauldry _________________6.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.0 _ 124 _ 098 ____ 65
Schadenfreudia __________ 5.7 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72
DOCARCH _______________5.6 _ 15.2 _ -6.2 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 78
Harps __________________ 5.6 _ 14.7 _ -5.9 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 81
200motels ______________ 5.6 _ 12.5 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 067 ____ 65
Bsal ___________________ 5.5 _ 14.7 _ -6.0 _ 122 _ 101 ____ 76
sunflower3 ______________ 5.5 _ 14.1 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 091 ____ 72

Con Sensus ______________5.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 101 ____ 70

dasa29 _________________ 5.5 _ 12.0 _ -5.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 40
kindredspirit _____________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ -5.5 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 66
Lumi ____________________5.1 _ 14.4 _ -6.5 _ 096 _ 090 ____ 63
rameire _________________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -4.0 _ 130 _ 106 ____ 66
john mac ________________5.1 _ 13.8 _ -5.8 _ 103 _ 110 ____ 68
Rikand __________________5.0 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 74
Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 14.5 _-10.0_ 085 _ 125 ____ 72
M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.8 _ 13.2 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 72
jd ______________________4.6 _ 14.4 _ -7.3 _ 108 _ 103 ____ 74
delw ________ (-5) _______ 4.7 _ 14.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 47
Dacogawa _______________4.5 _ 12.1 _ -9.8 _ 099 _ 110 ____ 62
joepublic ________________3.9 _ 14.5 _ -6.9 _ 120 _ 099 ____ 75

_______________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts, can be adjusted if we get any further entries.

I see the pessimists on top; the optimists on the bottom!

January 2015 Boards forecast contest

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