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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

1…8990929495

Comments

  • #4552
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    If you call next week 'moderate cold' I'd love to know what warrants severe cold ?:)

    850hpa temps lower than -6C anyway.

    Also Gerry probably wouldn't have seen the 12z before going on air, not all of it anyway.


  • #4553
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Thanks for the pictures guys.

    Theres abig differance between Canadian snow and irish snow. It means more to get irish snow. Here in alberta we,ve snow from october to May and it gets after awhile a pain in the arse. If it was irish snow i wouldnt mind one bit.:)


  • #4554
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Kippure wrote: »
    Thanks for the pictures guys.

    Theres abig differance between Canadian snow and irish snow.

    The difference is, Canadian snow isn't invisible.

    :P


  • #4555
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    My view of the ECM is at least six days of Nationwide disruption due to snow and cold starting Sunday. Certainly warrants a pre warning or pre watch as the beeb used to do. He could at least mention the possibility and say it's open to change.
    If you call next week 'moderate cold' I'd love to know what warrants severe cold ?:)
    Of course the ECM could be wrong and I have to say my favourite model over all of them is the GFS

    And what would the GFS bring?


  • #4556
    Graupel
    Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Graupel


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    My view of the ECM is at least six days of Nationwide disruption due to snow and cold starting Sunday. Certainly warrants a pre warning or pre watch as the beeb used to do. He could at least mention the possibility and say it's open to change.
    If you call next week 'moderate cold' I'd love to know what warrants severe cold ?:)
    Of course the ECM could be wrong and I have to say my favourite model over all of them is the GFS

    That doesn't work in Ireland, Even if he said "There is a very slight possibility of a cold snap next week with the chance of some heavy snow if it were to materialise" We would have a nationwide game of chinese whispers and before dawn the next day were in for 2010 all over again according to the man and his dog.

    Then it doesn't materialise and Met E are bashed again.


  • #4557
    zidewayz
    Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭zidewayz


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Yeah, snow at or above 500 metres today.

    See: http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=3216.915

    The Pics I posted a few pages back were taken around 14.30. Snow was well sticking at that stage. Snow level was 480m asl.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056799298&page=298


  • #4558
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    850hpa temps lower than -6C anyway.

    Actually I was probably too quick to jump conclusions. If the ECM came off we would also be pulling a lot of surface cold off the one big snow field that will be the UK!


  • #4559
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    850hpa temps lower than -6C anyway.

    Also Gerry probably wouldn't have seen the 12z before going on air, not all of it anyway.

    In fairness id have to agree with Beasterly on this one, There is no way they could have updated the on air charts to reflect the 12z run. Maybe be after the 9 0 clock news even then I doubted he is going to put his neck on the line and start saying its going to snow the weekend or early next week which is a long way off and the way the models are flipping.


  • #4560
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    And what would the GFS bring?
    Snow quite widely on and off until Wed, when it turns milder slowly from the West.
    The pattern has been backing further and further South and West the last few days so much so that Ireland is now more poised than the UK come next week.


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  • #4561
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    850hpa temps lower than -6C anyway.

    Also Gerry probably wouldn't have seen the 12z before going on air, not all of it anyway.

    You don't need super cold uppers for severe cold though.

    A NI record low temperature of -18 was set in Tyrone here.

    archives-2010-12-20-0-1.png


  • #4562
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Actually I was probably too quick to jump conclusions. If the ECM came off we would also be pulling a lot of surface cold off the one big snow field that will be the UK!

    Not to mind the dewpoints over Western UK.
    As low as -10 going by the gfs


  • #4563
    zidewayz
    Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭zidewayz


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Yeah, snow at or above 500 metres today.

    See: http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=3216.915
    Kippure wrote: »
    Thanks for the pictures guys.

    Theres abig differance between Canadian snow and irish snow. It means more to get irish snow. Here in alberta we,ve snow from october to May and it gets after awhile a pain in the arse. If it was irish snow i wouldnt mind one bit.:)

    I plan on heading upto the mast on Kippure tom with the dog so will hopefully post a few more snow pics on my return.


  • #4564
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Also, I wouldn't be too considered about exact uppers on the ECM 120, 144 hours out etc. when we are unsure about them even 48 hours out at the moment. :)


  • #4565
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    zidewayz wrote: »
    I plan on heading upto the mast on Kippure tom with the dog so will hopefully post a few more snow pics on my return.

    Make sure you dress for the weather. During winter its a differant ball game when you go walking so high up.:)


  • #4566
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Battle of the air masses and battle of the models at the same time. A forecasting nightmare.

    However it is a 3-1 advantage for the colder solution among the four models that I consider most reliable (most reliable recently in this order, ECM, GEM, UK, GFS). Only the GFS fails to develop a strong low on a southeast heading track Sunday-Monday. A blend of the other three would bring snow potential to most of the southern half of the country Sunday night into Monday morning.

    That might turn out to be elevation based but certainly the potential is there for 20-30 cm falls on slopes above 150m in the southeast where orographic uplift will help boost totals. About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford. Some parts of eastern Northern Ireland could be added in due to local streamers outside the storm precip shield but most of the guidance keeps Connacht and west Ulster dry. There again they could see a bit of snow during the period as winds back from ESE to NE.

    If the odd man out GFS is right, nothing much will happen and Ireland will stay in 3-5 C or milder with light rain and just a slight potential for snow on hills.

    Also most of the model consensus shows a deepening of cold by Wed-Thurs of next week with good potential for east coast snow streamers developing. The key to the solution I feel is the intensity of cold at present over Britain, this is setting up to enter the circulation whenever the pressure gradient backs around enough to pull the colder air across the Irish Sea. The Friday early morning frontal system fails to change the balance but then it dies out over western Britain and possibly this would begin to edge back west as a back door cold front that would slowly wrap around the approaching Atlantic low.

    Nothing too clarified yet but potential is there for snow on Sunday-Monday, heaviest falls would be around 150-300m elevations on east slopes of Wicklow and Dublin Mtns so southern higher suburbs of Dublin could see perhaps 10-15 cm while it could be a sleety mix at sea level there. In a circulation like this projected low you would only need about -5 C at 850 mbs and 528 dm thickness to get snow.


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  • #4567
    Dead_Rabbits
    Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭Dead_Rabbits


    Battleground Ireland

    fax72s.gif


  • #4568
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Sunglasses and shorts again for Waterford.. the only place in the world where the weather doesnt change from grey clouds and 10-15 degrees! :mad:


  • #4569
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,331 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    The iPhone weather backs you up Dead Rabbits. Sunday/Monday Snow everywhere.


  • #4570
    fontenoy7
    Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭fontenoy7


    zidewayz wrote: »
    The Pics I posted a few pages back were taken around 14.30. Snow was well sticking at that stage. Snow level was 480m asl.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056799298&page=298

    Can you imagine the Irish press publishing anything ' Irish' with respect to snow when they can concentrate on a little bit abroad in Eastern England??

    There is regular heavy snow in Wicklow but they ignore it because ENGERLAND is more exciting and that is the truth of the matter.


  • #4571
    Dead_Rabbits
    Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭Dead_Rabbits


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    The iPhone weather backs you up Dead Rabbits. Sunday/Monday Snow everywhere.

    Guess we can't argue with the might of Apple Corp! :rolleyes:


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  • #4572
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    " About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
    Whats mixing mean????


  • #4573
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    jo06555 wrote: »
    " About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
    Whats mixing mean????

    Changing from rain to snow, sleet, rain , snow etc


  • #4574
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Various 12z models' output for 144 hours, spot the odd one out? :cool:

    ECM
    ECM1-144_rcd9.GIF
    GEM
    gem-0-144_top5.png
    UKMO
    UW144-21_zdf9.GIF
    GFS
    gfs-0-144_mci7.png
    NOGAPS
    nogaps-0-144_bpi1.png
    JMA
    J144-21_sgk1.GIF
    BOM
    bom-0-144_zzf8.png
    CMA
    cma-0-144_xbm0.png


  • #4575
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    Musicman2000 wrote: »

    Changing from rain to snow, sleet, rain , snow etc
    Nothing new their so! ;)


  • #4576
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    jo06555 wrote: »
    " About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
    Whats mixing mean????

    Milder air. Mixed precipitation. I'd only expect rain/sleet at low levels in Waterford to be honest.

    A very bullish forecast from M.T. there. I hope he survives the virtual lynching on here if that doesn't work out. :P


  • #4577
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The great thing is that the early push of cold air to the northeast on Friday on the EC DET is not an outlier :D

    So things could turn white rapidly late Friday.

    EC OP

    ECM0-48.GIF

    EC MEAN

    EDM0-48.GIF?16-0


  • #4578
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭Rougies


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Various 12z models' output for 144 hours, spot the odd one out? :cool:

    Go home GFS, you''re drunk.


  • #4579
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The EC OP is not an outlier. The EC means has the cold advancing from the east late Friday through the weekend with snow for many.

    Met Eireann to change their tune at 930 or look rather foolish.


  • #4580
    Dead_Rabbits
    Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭Dead_Rabbits


    GFS

    gtfo_gold_gif.gif


  • #4581
    NIALL D
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    from reading MT's post , i hope the likes of cork tipp waterford get blasted with snow :) and dublin & the north get nada , cause its normally the other way round !!!

    maybe it will work out in our favour down south hopefully :cool:

    RRAAAAMMMMPPPP


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  • #4582
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭Rougies


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Milder air. Mixed precipitation. I'd only expect rain/sleet at low levels in Waterford to be honest.

    A very bullish forecast from M.T. there. I hope he survives the virtual lynching on here if that doesn't work out. :P

    He worded it like a true pro though, with words like, IF, MIGHT, POTENTIAL, POSSIBLE etc. before any mention of snow. We all know it's a bit of a ramp though :)


  • #4583
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ECM mean at 144.

    EDM1-144.GIF?16-0

    Suggests good support for heights rising northwest at 240.

    EDM1-240.GIF?16-0


  • #4584
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Now, the question is does the GFS do a backtrack on the 18z ?


  • #4585
    Dead_Rabbits
    Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭Dead_Rabbits


    Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK :D


  • #4586
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    maquiladora wrote: »
    There is still a lot of things that can change before Sunday that could easily make it an all rain event on low levels.

    I'd seriously advice people not to raise their expectations at this stage.

    Indeed. Lots of potential and time for a downgrade. I have the T-shirt from years of model watching! :pac:


  • #4587
    Graupel
    Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Graupel


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Now, the question is does the GFS do a backtrack on the 18z ?

    I wouldnt expect anything till the 00z.


  • #4588
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    The NAE tomorrow will be interesting, hoping to see more pinks !


  • #4589
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    If we do get snow at the weekend or next week. This will be me

    tumblr_l7mgtgeBa91qc073co1_400.gif


  • #4590
    Problem123456
    Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭Problem123456


    Dead_Rabbits wrote: »
    Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK :D
    Haha delighted


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  • #4591
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    How's it looking for snow at lower levels in the north east through the weekend


  • #4592
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Notice on the 12Z NAE for midday Friday (as far out as it goes), precip in the Atlantic shown as falling as snow.

    13011812_1612.gif

    Cold uppers coming in from the west.
    13011812_1612.gif

    528 dam line extending east and west.
    13011812_1612.gif


  • #4593
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Dead_Rabbits wrote: »
    Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK :D

    Could you link that to us.


  • #4594
    Dead_Rabbits
    Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭Dead_Rabbits


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Could you link that to us.

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75594-winter-model-discussion-18z-16113-onwards/

    A few comments have been deleted by the looks of it, the one liners!


  • #4595
    mothel
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭mothel


    Dead_Rabbits wrote: »
    Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK :D

    Stands and confesses " i don't lnow what an NW is?" Can you post a link please!


  • #4596
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Milder air. Mixed precipitation. I'd only expect rain/sleet at low levels in Waterford to be honest.

    A very bullish forecast from M.T. there. I hope he survives the virtual lynching on here if that doesn't work out. :P

    Look at all the snow predicted by MT for outside my door - "That might turn out to be elevation based but certainly the potential is there for 20-30 cm falls on slopes above 150m in the southeast where orographic uplift will help boost totals."
    I certainly won't lynch him if wrong, but I am willing to sell the snow to whoever wants it if correct :pac:


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  • #4597
    cyclops999
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭cyclops999


    How will the Midlands fair out in all of this.;-)


  • #4598
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Now, the question is does the GFS do a backtrack on the 18z ?

    There might be some sort of a backtrack but might not happen until the 0Z when it gets the full range of latest data.

    Or the GFS might be right, heh.


  • #4599
    Mr Cumulonimbus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Mr Cumulonimbus


    mothel wrote: »
    Stands and confesses " i don't lnow what an NW is?" Can you post a link please!

    Forum over on Netweather.

    http://forum.netweather.tv/


  • #4600
    Munster46
    Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Munster46


    Is there even a chance of snow in the south west of Ireland or will it be the same as usual when the east gets all the snow when it actually snows :/


  • #4601
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Min wrote: »
    Look at all the snow predicted by MT for outside my door - "That might turn out to be elevation based but certainly the potential is there for 20-30 cm falls on slopes above 150m in the southeast where orographic uplift will help boost totals."
    I certainly won't lynch him if wrong, but I am willing to sell the snow to whoever wants it if correct :pac:

    I think it's safe to say you'll see a few flakes at least Min. :) Hope you don't get it too bad up there.


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