And the winner of dreamer of the year is...

scwazrh · 06-07-2021 9:21am

unkel wrote: »

Interesting discussion though, one thing frightens me a bit. The consensus on the forum a bit over a year ago was that these moonwatches weren't really going anywhere. The value back then of both hesalite and sapphire in a private sale here in Ireland were firmly under the €3k mark. Even if we'd be more conservative than even 893bet above and say the watch will fetch €3750, that's a huge increase in a year.

Perhaps Omega are succeeding after all then in their strategy of substantially upping their retail prices year on year to drag the value of all their watches up (towards Rolex levels)?

Nah I reckon it’s the COVID effect .Watches have exploded and anyone with even a slight interest in watches pre COVID now has the time to be looking at pretty pics of watches online . Add to it that anyone still earning can’t go anywhere to spend money and all of sudden anything under €10 k is very affordable.
Might be a different story next year when the weekly shopping trips and couple of holidays are on again. Spare cash will be spent somewhere else

unkel · 06-07-2021 9:27am

You could be right there. There seemed to be the COVID effect alright last year. With the likes of the moonwatches being the more recognisable and affordable entry into luxury watches (like the seamasters), so they went up relatively more than most others? Like you say a lot of lads found themselves with several grand of spare money not going on holidays / nights out and more time on their hands for online browsing and shopping

Wibbs · 06-07-2021 9:56am

scwazrh wrote: »

Nah I reckon it’s the COVID effect .Watches have exploded and anyone with even a slight interest in watches pre COVID now has the time to be looking at pretty pics of watches online . Add to it that anyone still earning can’t go anywhere to spend money and all of sudden anything under €10 k is very affordable.
Might be a different story next year when the weekly shopping trips and couple of holidays are on again. Spare cash will be spent somewhere else

Yup. It's a strong trend across all sorts of collectables; antiques, art, classic cars and the like have gone nuts in "values" over the last 18 months. The pandemic, concerns about the usual investment routes, money making feck all in the bank etc. Your say ten grand invested in watches, classic cars etc two years ago would return gains significantly more than if it had been stuck in a bank, or most of the usual investment avenues.

Another difference with this trend is that it's not for the most part based on credit. So the classic car value rises have been fuelled by spare (pandemic)cash rather than like in the 80's/90's where it was mostly credit. Same for watches. I personally see a lot of the traits of a bubble going on, save for that credit/cash thing. It seems more sustainable, or rather less likely to burst overnight, but soften. If people who feel they missed out start trying to buy in on credit, that would be the bad sign IMHO. Though like you say post pandemic we might see an offloading of pandemic assets which could wobble things. That said post pandemic could well see recession, even depression which would further push the vlaues of such assets. Who knows?

893bet · 06-07-2021 10:08am

unkel wrote: »

Interesting discussion though, one thing frightens me a bit. The consensus on the forum a bit over a year ago was that these moonwatches weren't really going anywhere. The value back then of both hesalite and sapphire in a private sale here in Ireland were firmly under the €3k mark. Even if we'd be more conservative than even 893bet above and say the watch will fetch €3750, that's a huge increase in a year.

Perhaps Omega are succeeding after all then in their strategy of substantially upping their retail prices year on year to drag the value of all their watches up (towards Rolex levels)?

There were loads of sales around COVID for the speedmaster with 20 percent off. Brand new was readily available for 3300-3500 or even less as unlike Rolex the AD could do online sales with them.

Logically that should have decimated the second hand market. It certainly didn’t as there is money sloshing around.

We all benefit from rising prices but it’s terrible overall. It’s great that I have watches that have increased from anywhere from 25% to 200% (taking c24 valuations...).

But what good is it really when the watch I want to buy was 8k and now it’s 15k.

Birneybau · 06-07-2021 10:16am

thelizardking1 wrote: »

Oh boy! That sentence there tells me all I need to know about you.

Bit unfair.

scwazrh · 06-07-2021 10:19am

893bet wrote: »

But what good is it really when the watch I want to buy was 8k and now it’s 15k.

At the start of May I spoke to pride & pinion about a new submariner , advertised price then was €12k, Went back to them at start of June , advertised price had gone up €240 ..in a month ..They said Rolex prices are going up by the week

Wibbs · 06-07-2021 10:26am

scwazrh wrote: »

They said Rolex prices are going up by the week

That rapid an increase is more of a concern on the "bubble" front IMHO. It sniffs of panic buying in the market.

893bet · 06-07-2021 10:31am

Wibbs wrote: »

That rapid an increase is more of a concern on the "bubble" front IMHO. It sniffs of panic buying in the market.

Fuelled by YouTube. The “buy today as it will cost you more tomorrow”.

It can’t continue but.....it’s going on a long time now....

A level off is and slight correction and then stagnation I think is more likely than a massive drop.

unkel · 06-07-2021 10:33am

scwazrh wrote: »

At the start of May I spoke to pride & pinion about a new submariner , advertised price then was €12k

Their prices seem VERY optimistic. Some of you have bought there. I presume there is a good bit of scope for negotiation if you have no trade-ins?

banie01 · 06-07-2021 11:13am

scwazrh wrote: »

Nah I reckon it’s the COVID effect .Watches have exploded and anyone with even a slight interest in watches pre COVID now has the time to be looking at pretty pics of watches online . Add to it that anyone still earning can’t go anywhere to spend money and all of sudden anything under €10 k is very affordable.
Might be a different story next year when the weekly shopping trips and couple of holidays are on again. Spare cash will be spent somewhere else

I think this has a lot to do with it.
TBH that allow illustrates the potential for inflation across all markets from essentials to houses come a fuller unlocking.

There is money waiting to be spent that will follow a herd rather than a rational market.
In the broader sweep of things, I think inflationary pressures are starting to ramp up and the tools to deal with them at this point?
Are exhausted.

On the price of a speedie?
I think the market will decide the price, but my rule of thumb for Chrono24 prices is always to knock 20% to get the private sale range.
I also tend to take a look thru r/watchexchange and watchrecon for the asking/sale prices.

I think Omega are making a concerted and deliberate effort to mirror Rolex pricing while leveraging both availability and history to corner a bigger market.

Fair enough, but when you are approaching Rolex pricing and also exceeding other mainstream luxury brands with similar quality?
It's IMO a dangerous tactic, Tudor and by extension Rolex will be rubbing their hands IMO.

unkel · 06-07-2021 12:18pm

banie01 wrote: »

my rule of thumb for Chrono24 prices is always to knock 20% to get the private sale range.

With the exception of the likes of Rolex, that's as good a valuation as any in my book. For selling watches I compare to the cheapest comparable one (in the EU), knock 10% off and that's my asking price. Which obviously still has a good bit of room for negotiation.

Cyrus · 18-08-2021 7:54pm

45k

Not a hope

http://www.adverts.ie/24608580

banie01 · 18-08-2021 8:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117773288#Comment_117773288

Is it a mishmash? Or am I totally mistaken?

It's the wrong dial, it's an 116520 that the seller is claiming it as vintage? It's a 10year old watch...

Am I missing something, or just a noob?

EDIT

Maybe I am a noob 😉 but I think that our local might be a bit on the overpriced 😮 side. If my Chrono24 rule of thumb holds true, it's an €18k watch but sure it's a Rolex so let's say even at their asking, it's €22k.

Can't see Irish Rolex fanboys paying double for an aftermarket dial either.

Screenshot_2021-08-18-20-37-54-025_com.chrono24.mobile.jpg

893bet · 18-08-2021 9:02pm

It’s a bastardised custom job from some company that does that.

Same seller had this last year.

https://www.adverts.ie/22701874

banie01 · 18-08-2021 9:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117773587#Comment_117773587

I remember that one alright. Even on that one, it was so odd. Went from being a 1/5 limitedwatch to a 1 of a kind designed by him over the course of the sale thread.

Fitz II · 19-08-2021 12:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117773288#Comment_117773288

He has the strangest watches.

Cyrus · 19-08-2021 12:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117775539#Comment_117775539

really does, he is also taking the utter p!ss with that asking price, the same crowd his one is from have one on C24 for 22k, and even at that its too much for a butchered 116520.

banie01 · 19-08-2021 2:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117775539#Comment_117775539

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117775713#Comment_117775713

He has a very eclectic mix of watches alright and some very odd ones. The Daytona, I mean I'm nowhere near the level of some on here but if I was buying, I'd like the original dial, box and papers too. Surely the customisation work invalidates the Rolex warranty and for want of a better word the "chain of custody" of it being a Rolex? Similarly with the Black Venom piece and even dare I say it the artisans de geneve custom pieces?

I totally understand that when you have a certain level of wealth that only owning the unobtainium isn't enough but, that having it customised and made unique can be an even greater differentiator.

But its mad isn't it? Surely rather than ruin(?) a consumer and commercial classic buying Haute Horology would make more sense? Sit with a watchmaker and tell him what you want?

Now that said, some of the Black Venom customisations are very nice and their website is slick AF, but its a level of consumerism i suppose I'll never be rich enough to understand. I'm not jealous or envious tho....

Swear ;)

Cyrus · 20-08-2021 5:56pm

My my

https://www.adverts.ie/casual/rolex-pics-does-no-justice/24654843

And the winner of dreamer of the year is...

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