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Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Huge amount of rain forecast for the UK this week with warnings already in place for the middle of the week.
Need to keep an eye on the E and NE this week, could be seeing warnings also especially Weds/ Thurs and into Fri in the E with slow moving frontal rain.
Poor temps under the cloud.
Another weather system possible coming into the SW on Fri.
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1137669559291392001
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Coming in to the more reliable time frame and models showing some heavy rain next Sunday into Monday, specifics will firm up over the coming days but there is suggestion of some heavy falls, models differing on locations a bit at this stage. Looks mild and humid on Sunday in that SE / E 'ly flow. Will be monitoring the thunderstorm potential along with many others no doubt. High Theta E readings given the source. Monday looking warm, into the 20's in parts after potentially a lot of rain so probably feeling warm with the humidity.
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Next Fri is interesting with the ECM showing LP systems drawing up a warm moisture laden air mass towards Ireland /UK under an active Jet . Todays Fax chart showing the frontal triple point over Ireland and some models showing very heavy rainfall. This set up could be quite convective. Of course this could change somewhat but worth keeping an eye on .
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Haven't seen windy weather for some time. Sun / Mon has LP systems moving up along the W coast . Sunday into Monday could be very wet especially in Atlantic coastal counties. Feeling warm and humid probably getting up to the low 20's.
ECM showing a lot of rain to fall between now and Monday night.
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At the moment strongest winds staying well off shore and windiest up along Atlantic coasts but a bit of a difference in timing between the models.
With the steering Jet so close to the systems on Monday it could lead to higher winds or could nudge them further out. Will see, bit off yet.
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Around next Thurs the models showing a LP system moving up from the S and in the main has the center staying off the W coast and could be windy especially in the S and E of the country. Big draw of warm humid air which could be quite wet and bring possible thunderstorms. Will see over the coming days how it takes shape.
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LP staying well to our S on Monday moving in over the UK into Tues and giving rainfall warnings there. Rainfall in the S and later SE E on Monday and again Eastern side of the country on Tues. Currently not showing huge amounts but maybe the S getting a good drop on Monday and locally heavy thundery showers possible in the SE, E and NE on Tues. Any strong winds way to our S more effecting the S of the UK for a time.
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I see meteociel now have the UK met office EURO4 model available with a decent amount of parameters, should be a nice addition to hi-res model watching
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/euro4.php?map=10
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Watching the charts for around next Fri. Currently show very heavy rain from a big draw of warm moist air brought up from lower latitudes. This would be very conducive to thunderstorms I would think. Long way off and the LP position will possibly change track and timing a bit but the models are in fairly good agreement about the LP at this stage. GFS shows the heaviest rain arrive before the other models , of course very early days yet and will take untill midweek to be fairly sure about this and how much rain is set to fall.
Will see how this pans out.
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Been desperately hoping for a dru Sunday afternoon in Dun Laoghaire this weekend as I'm playing an outdoor festival, and the FI over the last three days has flip flopped on every run between dry and drizzly
Hoping against hope that today's Sunday charts change back as we get closer to the weekend now that we're into the reliable window 0 -
As the LP system moves off to the NW tomorrow we get an active frontal passage over the country which could produce a lot of rain, possible warning levels.
Very little DLS but has LLS with a pronounced convergence zone especially across the center of the country, this could producing forcing along the front with thunderstorms a possibility.
Cooler fresher air mass to follow the passage of the front.
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Getting windy for a time overnight along Atlantic coasts, gales at sea, and breezy / windy transferring inland as the fronts cross the country.
Highest rainfall over mountainous areas in the SW and W
Getting quite windy along the W / NW early Sat morning and continuing for much of the day. Models have been showing the LP center in various distances from the NW with varying wind strengths the last couple of runs. Blustery across the country. Will see how this progresses.
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after a few cool and unsettled days across the country, temperatures will be on the rise and most places drying out by Friday, as temperatures lift to around 21 or 22C. Warm away from the west and north-west coastal areas.This is current GFS temperature predictions, but today it is certainly looking promising.
Saturday, maybe not quite as warm, but temperatures still a respectfull 20C or so.
Sunday see's the heat building slightly with temperatures up to 24C possible, -especially across the south-east:
Monday could be warmer still:
Tuesday looks to be very warm, possibly hot in one or two locations with temperatures reaching 24 to 26C across the country.
The heat continues into Wednesday with similar temperatures, but a moderation in temperatures across the north-west with low pressure arriving.
Thursday is back to mid to high teens with average temperatures and low pressure setting up.0 -
ECM has been creeping up with the rainfall totals for Tues as a slow moving trailing front makes progress over the country with what looks like a wave forming on it bringing more rain into Weds across the country. Totals not huge atm apart from along Atlantic coasts especially Connacht .
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