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Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

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Meteorite58

Mod Note

Closing this thread . Have opened a new thread for Autumn 2019.

Meteorite58

After the weather overnight clears there is the introduction of a cooler fresher air mass down from Greenland as we lead into Autumn. Briefly milder later Monday into Tues with the passage of fronts and then cooler again on Weds.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1167467014123917317?s=20

Meteorite58

ECM has been creeping up with the rainfall totals for Tues as a slow moving trailing front makes progress over the country with what looks like a wave forming on it bringing more rain into Weds across the country. Totals not huge atm apart from along Atlantic coasts especially Connacht .

Gonzo

after a few cool and unsettled days across the country, temperatures will be on the rise and most places drying out by Friday, as temperatures lift to around 21 or 22C. Warm away from the west and north-west coastal areas.This is current GFS temperature predictions, but today it is certainly looking promising.

81-580UK.GIF?20-6

Saturday, maybe not quite as warm, but temperatures still a respectfull 20C or so.

102-580UK.GIF?20-6

Sunday see's the heat building slightly with temperatures up to 24C possible, -especially across the south-east:

126-580UK.GIF?20-6

Monday could be warmer still:
150-580UK.GIF?20-6

Tuesday looks to be very warm, possibly hot in one or two locations with temperatures reaching 24 to 26C across the country.

174-580UK.GIF?20-6

The heat continues into Wednesday with similar temperatures, but a moderation in temperatures across the north-west with low pressure arriving.

198-580UK.GIF?20-6

Thursday is back to mid to high teens with average temperatures and low pressure setting up.

Meteorite58

Windy and wet for a time on Wednesday and relatively cool for many.

Meteorite58

Pressure getting quite low early Sat , down to 975 hPa

Slow to pull away.

Meteorite58

Getting windy for a time overnight along Atlantic coasts, gales at sea, and breezy / windy transferring inland as the fronts cross the country.

Highest rainfall over mountainous areas in the SW and W

Getting quite windy along the W / NW early Sat morning and continuing for much of the day. Models have been showing the LP center in various distances from the NW with varying wind strengths the last couple of runs. Blustery across the country. Will see how this progresses.

Meteorite58

The LP next weekend now tracking further off the NW the last two runs.

Wet and windy at times and looks set to turn cool when the winds go NW'ly but a long way off yet.

Meteorite58

ICON which was off a bit the last dew days also looking similar to the other models .

Meteorite58

km79 wrote: »

Ah here
That last one is showing 80 mm again for athenry
That’s ridiculous:(

EURO 4 inclined to over do it a bit , AROME / ARPEGE showing around another 30- 40mm between now and late Sat night.

km79

Ah here
That last one is showing 80 mm again for athenry
That’s ridiculous:(

Meteorite58

What the other models are predicting for Rainfall accumulations. Fairly common theme with highest totals across the center of the country.

Meteorite58

As the LP system moves off to the NW tomorrow we get an active frontal passage over the country which could produce a lot of rain, possible warning levels.

Very little DLS but has LLS with a pronounced convergence zone especially across the center of the country, this could producing forcing along the front with thunderstorms a possibility.

Cooler fresher air mass to follow the passage of the front.

hatrickpatrick

Been desperately hoping for a dru Sunday afternoon in Dun Laoghaire this weekend as I'm playing an outdoor festival, and the FI over the last three days has flip flopped on every run between dry and drizzly

Hoping against hope that today's Sunday charts change back as we get closer to the weekend now that we're into the reliable window

Meteorite58

Would it be very windy if that comes to fruition?

IMO It looks windy from early Friday with the frontal passage sweeping up over the country but currently below warning level at this stage. During the day windier on coasts with variable wind directions as the Low will more than likely be close to being centered over us, as it moves further N could get quite windy in the SW but again just below warning level at this stage. Gales at sea. On Sat looks windier across the country and up along the E for a time but below warning level, atm looking like gusting 60 to 70 km/h. Fri could have strong convective gusts as it looks like getting a good few thunderstorms.

The models are tweaking the track and timing of this so more will be revealed over the coming days.

EDIT : updated this post in the New dedicated thread for Thurs /Fri.

Ultimate Seduction

Meteorite58 wrote: »

A look a how the models are showing the heavy rainfall late Thurs into Fri as the Low moves up over the country.

Would it be very windy if that comes to fruition?

Meteorite58

A look a how the models are showing the heavy rainfall late Thurs into Fri as the Low moves up over the country.

Meteorite58

pad199207 wrote: »

Met going to for widespread heavy rain from a Sub tropical source for the weekend

ECM showing some very high totals Thurs into Fri and currently showing big potential for Thunderstorms overnight Thurs into Fri morning, could be a good light show.

pad199207

Met going to for widespread heavy rain from a Sub tropical source for the weekend

Meteorite58

Watching the charts for around next Fri. Currently show very heavy rain from a big draw of warm moist air brought up from lower latitudes. This would be very conducive to thunderstorms I would think. Long way off and the LP position will possibly change track and timing a bit but the models are in fairly good agreement about the LP at this stage. GFS shows the heaviest rain arrive before the other models , of course very early days yet and will take untill midweek to be fairly sure about this and how much rain is set to fall.

Will see how this pans out.

Meteorite58

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Hows the bank holiday weekend looking Meteorite ?

Posted reply here.

Oscar Bravo

Hows the bank holiday weekend looking Meteorite ?

Meteorite58

Some of the current predicted rainfall totals until around late Tues night. 🌧🌧🌧🌧🌩 .

Meteorite58

Good to have the Euro 4 in the suite to compare with the others in the same map style.

Models differing quite a bit this evening with the amount of rain to fall over the coming days. WRF showing fairly high totals up to Tuesday in the S, SE, E and parts of the Central counties. Others showing much less. Will see what the ECM has in the morning.

Donegal Storm

I see meteociel now have the UK met office EURO4 model available with a decent amount of parameters, should be a nice addition to hi-res model watching

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/euro4.php?map=10

Mortelaro

That would be very welcome in east rain starved Wicklow
Here's the UK met office tweet,they've also an early yellow out on widespread thunderstorms from that system which will be impacting our east at the same time

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1155456023735537664?s=19

Meteorite58

LP staying well to our S on Monday moving in over the UK into Tues and giving rainfall warnings there. Rainfall in the S and later SE E on Monday and again Eastern side of the country on Tues. Currently not showing huge amounts but maybe the S getting a good drop on Monday and locally heavy thundery showers possible in the SE, E and NE on Tues. Any strong winds way to our S more effecting the S of the UK for a time.

Meteorite58

Around next Thurs the models showing a LP system moving up from the S and in the main has the center staying off the W coast and could be windy especially in the S and E of the country. Big draw of warm humid air which could be quite wet and bring possible thunderstorms. Will see over the coming days how it takes shape.

squarecircles

Jean Byrne alluded to mid to high twenties next week

pig muck all along Atantic coasts however, so id imagined alot of low cloud,drizzle,intermitent outbreaks of rain,impingements of sea fog,and severely suppressed anaemic temperatures,perpetual sheets of grey white low stratus cloud in a cool damp southwesterly,low light that makes everything look grey or black and dark evenings.

could be a very warm pleasant summery week the further away from the atlantic coast you are.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z has big Temperatures showing up start of next week .

Mon up to around 27C
Tues up to around 26C

Showing back to low 20's Weds and Thurs.