Property Market 2018

beauf · 12-06-2018 5:22pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Those (and driving) are the only real viable transport links. The buses are worse than the LUAS. Okay there's one or two good routes but the majority of it is the pits.

There are trains. Most of which are jammed solid. Yet they want to get more people on them. At this point they'll need velcro the roof and the sides to get more people on them.

All the focus, in Dublin, Nationally, is dis-proportionally around the Dart.

Bob24 · 13-06-2018 10:23am

Interesting piece on how today’s market is different from the 2007 pre-crash market: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/this-time-the-overheating-is-different/

draiochtanois · 13-06-2018 10:47am

This post has been deleted.

M.Cribben · 13-06-2018 10:56am

Bob24 wrote: »

Interesting piece on how today’s market is different from the 2007 pre-crash market: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/this-time-the-overheating-is-different/

He's saying the 2 factors which could cause another slump (economic shock like sharp rise in US interest rates or service based multinationals leaving Ireland) are both unlikely to happen. Then goes on to say:

However, an overheating market followed by a crash (still unlikely) would actually benefit Irish people and the Irish balance sheet, because these days we are only tenants in our own country.

I disagree with above point. If either of those 2 factors mentioned happen (especially the multinationals leaving) the country will be catastrophically worse off in terms of job losses, corporation tax and income tax receipts to the exchequer, knock-on effects to other industries, etc.

Anyway, where does that leave us as a country.

Are extortionate, unaffordable rents and annual double-digit % increases in property prices just part of life now?
The only option is to just keep building and hope an increase in supply eventually puts the brakes on all this madness.

awec · 13-06-2018 10:59am

M.Cribben wrote: »

He's saying the 2 factors which could cause another slump (economic shock like sharp rise in US interest rates or service based multinationals leaving Ireland) are both unlikely to happen. Then goes on to say:

I disagree with above point. If either of those 2 factors mentioned happen (especially the multinationals leaving) the country will be catastrophically worse off in terms of job losses, corporation tax and income tax loss to the exchequer, knock-on effects to other industries, etc.

Anyway, where does that leave us as a country.

Are extortionate, unaffordable rents and annual double-digit % increases in property prices just part of life now?
The only option is to just keep building and hope an increase in supply eventually puts the brakes on all this madness.

There is a middle ground between double digit price increases with unaffordable rents and a property crash.

Rent can go down without a crash. Prices can level off or go down without crashing.

Henbabani · 13-06-2018 11:06am

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2018/

prices continue going up

awec · 13-06-2018 11:10am

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2018/

prices continue going up

They will keep going up until supply catches up with demand. At the current rate it's going to take quite a while. At some point they will start going up slower.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 13-06-2018 11:15am

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2018/

prices continue going up

Shocker......

M.Cribben · 13-06-2018 11:15am

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2018/

prices continue going up

The breakdown graph by region and houses/apartments is interesting and tells a story itself.
Mid-West house prices up almost 19% in 1 year. Crazy stuff altogether. I'm assuming this is mostly Galway city?

derekbro · 13-06-2018 11:23am

M.Cribben wrote: »

Mid-West house prices up almost 19% in 1 year. Crazy stuff altogether. I'm assuming this is mostly Galway city?

Mid-West is Limerick, Clare and Tipp.

13-06-2018 11:24am

It's the typical glass half full attitude .........in times of rising prices many can't seem to see an end to it unless there is a specific event on the horizon that they imagine will curtail the increases.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 13-06-2018 11:38am

Augeo wrote: »

It's the typical glass half full attitude .........in times of rising prices many can't seem to see an end to it unless there is a specific event on the horizon that they imagine will curtail the increases.

Or in times of short supply prices will continue to rise.

Samuel T. Cogley · 13-06-2018 8:01pm

Go on you good thing, still got a place to shift! :pac:

Marius34 · 14-06-2018 8:41am

Henbabani wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2018/

prices continue going up

Meanwhile in Dublin, it can be seen slowdown due to higher supply and affordability. I believe we should see annual increase falling to one digit in Dublin in 3-4 months from now.

dudara · 14-06-2018 8:44am

Purely anecdotally, based on my experience so far, I think prices seem to be calming in Dublin. Can’t say if this is the case across all price brackets and areas, but I’m even seeing price drops on some houses we’re looking at

Arthur Daley · 14-06-2018 9:22am

Good news for the general populace if this madness stops. Albeit it should have stopped a year or two back.

Cyrus · 14-06-2018 9:34am

Affordability will be the ceiling in Dublin then you will see prices go with inflation generally except in super desirable areas which will continue to have their own market

The_Conductor · 14-06-2018 10:06am

dudara wrote: »

Purely anecdotally, based on my experience so far, I think prices seem to be calming in Dublin. Can’t say if this is the case across all price brackets and areas, but I’m even seeing price drops on some houses we’re looking at

+1
I've also been watching a few specific developments in Galway- and increases in both prices and rent levels- are plateauing (albeit at wholly stupidly high levels).

Affordability- rather than availability- appears to be the brake on the market.

In West Dublin- the prices rises in new developments (particularly the Lucan area- up the Newcastle road)- have calmed down totally- and there is availability there- whereas a year ago you'd have had people fighting with one another over them...........

Supply is up- but not considerably- the issue now- is people are at the very top of their available funds- and when you add recent comments from the Central Bank- admonishing political tinkering in the market and suggesting remedial action would have to be taken with the deposit ratios and exemption thresholds- the writing really is on the wall.

We don't have a sufficient volume of properties hitting the market- but the property that is already on the market- has already clearly topped out in terms of affordability.

As for the poster a page back banging on about Kilternan- if we're really in the situation where we're considering high rise in Kilternan as some sort of a sticking plaster to supply side issues- I think its time to emigrate...........

M.Cribben · 14-06-2018 10:10am

Marius34 wrote: »

Meanwhile in Dublin, it can be seen slowdown due to higher supply and affordability. I believe we should see annual increase falling to one digit in Dublin in 3-4 months from now.

dudara wrote: »

Purely anecdotally, based on my experience so far, I think prices seem to be calming in Dublin. Can’t say if this is the case across all price brackets and areas, but I’m even seeing price drops on some houses we’re looking at

Slowdown?

Acceleration more like:

April 2017-April 2018

In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 12.5% in the year to April. Dublin house prices increased 11.7%. Apartments in Dublin increased 15.9% in the same period.

April 2016-April 2017

In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 8.2% in the year to April. Dublin house prices increased 8.1%. Whereas apartments increased 8.6% in the same period.

The % increase in Dublin over the last 12 months (April 2017-April 2018) is 4.3% higher than the previous period (April 2016-April 2017). That's the problem with anecdotal evidence. The statistics tell an entirely different story.

Marius34 · 14-06-2018 10:40am

M.Cribben wrote: »

The % increase in Dublin over the last 12 months (April 2017-April 2018) is 4.3% higher than the previous period (April 2016-April 2017). That's the problem with anecdotal evidence. The statistics tell an entirely different story.

This cso data present mainly 2017 property price increase, which was obviously with acceleration into double digits. We talk about this year. Even cso statistics for Feb,March,April for Dublin present flat on the price index. As well compare the number of adds in myhome/daft, it's definitely higher than a year ago.
There are no evidence for the price fall, but there is plenty of evidence for the slowdown coming this year in price increase in Dublin. (not rest of Ireland).

M.Cribben · 14-06-2018 10:51am

Marius34 wrote: »

This cso data present mainly 2017 property price increase, which was obviously with acceleration into double digits. We talk about this year.

I am talking about this year. The report includes all available information for sales this year (which in this case is Jan-Apr).

Even cso statistics for Feb,March,April for Dublin present flat on the price index.

Can you provide a link to these statistics please?

As well compare the number of adds in myhome/daft, it's definitely higher than a year ago.

Can you provide a link to these statistics please?

there is plenty of evidence for the slowdown coming this year in price increase in Dublin. (not rest of Ireland).

Can you provide a link to this evidence please?

I'm not cheerleading these price increases by any means. I just try to be realistic about the situation. And in every statistic and report I've read recently from CSO (Residential Property Price Index) which I've linked above / Daft (Irish House Price Report) / etc, there are no signs of a slowdown in Dublin. Quite the opposite in fact.

Bob24 · 14-06-2018 11:00am

In Dublin there is actually a slight drop between March and April (the RPPI dropped from 103.7 to 103.6 - this can be seen here on the chart: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2018/)

But given that it is mostly for sales which happened in the traditionally quiet winter season and on top of that storm Emma paralysed the country for a couple of days during that period, I would wait for another month or 2 before drawing any conclusion about the trend. Looking at previous years, May to September are the months when the strongest upwards movements happen, so if it remains flat or even drops during that period then I’d defInitly say the market has changed.

Edit: for reference if we look at last year, the Dublin RPPI for March was 92.8 and the one for April was 92.1, so there was a stronger drop than this year between these 2 months - but then in May it moved up to 94.5 and in June to 96.3.

M.Cribben · 14-06-2018 11:28am

Fresh CSO stats on new builds released today:

http://www.thejournal.ie/housing-stats-cso-4070367-Jun2018/

In the first quarter of 2018 there were 3,526 new homes built.

At that rate, there will only be 14,104 completions in 2018. That would actually be a decrease on the 2017 number (14,446). Either way, the rate is still a long way off the 35,000 completions / year we need to meet demand.

Mickiemcfist · 14-06-2018 11:41am

M.Cribben wrote: »

Fresh CSO stats on new builds released today:

http://www.thejournal.ie/housing-stats-cso-4070367-Jun2018/

At that rate, there will only be 14,104 completions in 2018. That would actually be a decrease on the 2017 number (14,446). Either way, the rate is still a long way off the 35,000 completions / year we need to meet demand.

Unfortunately 35k is only live demand, we need more to backfill legacy demand

Sierra Oscar · 14-06-2018 11:54am

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Unfortunately 35k is only live demand, we need more to backfill legacy demand

Has anyone done a calculation on what what the legacy demand actually stands at? The housing completion targets have been missed for years at this stage.

Marius34 · 14-06-2018 11:55am

M.Cribben wrote: »

Can you provide a link to these statistics please?

I'm not cheerleading these price increases by any means. I just try to be realistic about the situation. And in every statistic and report I've read recently from CSO (Residential Property Price Index) which I've linked above / Daft (Irish House Price Report) / etc, there are no signs of a slowdown in Dublin. Quite the opposite in fact.

Here you is all the statistics you asked me.

1) CSO for Dublin Feb,March,April:
On the same cso page from the graph for Dublin:
Feb2018 - 103,7
Mar2018 - 103,7
Apr2018 - 103,6

2) Number of adds for Myhome/Daft for Dublin:
MyHome-Property-Report-Q2-2017 - "The lack of supply in Dublin is even starker with just 3,986 homes, or 0.85% of the capital’s stock, listed for sale."
MyHomePropertyReportQ1-2018 - "Moreover, in Dublin, the number of properties listed for sale, at 3,900, is up 20% on last year."

At the moment it's 5,093 properties on MyHome in Dublin. That's 26% increase in volume compared with Q2 2017.
Same trends with the Daft reports.

3) Slowdown evidence for Dublin:
All the above, plus the number of mortgage approvals are basically stable, while the supplies are up. Plus the time it takes to sell, Daft Q1 2018: "68% percent of Dublin properties find a buyer within
four months - down over 10% from a year ago."

I would be willing to bet that on CSO report on 09/10/2018 for August 2018 we will see single digit for Dublin.

Bob24 · 14-06-2018 12:02pm

Marius34 wrote: »

1) CSO for Dublin Feb,March,April:
On the same cso page from the graph for Dublin:
Feb2018 - 103,7
Mar2018 - 103,7
Apr2018 - 103,6

On this and as my previous post, I would take note of the fact that there was also a 0.1 point drop between Feb 2017 and Apr 2017. So purely based on those figures this year doesn’t look different from last.

mel123 · 14-06-2018 12:32pm

dudara wrote: »

Purely anecdotally, based on my experience so far, I think prices seem to be calming in Dublin. Can’t say if this is the case across all price brackets and areas, but I’m even seeing price drops on some houses we’re looking at

Have to agree. Estate agents are actually emailing and phoning me back now!!!

dudara · 14-06-2018 12:45pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

Slowdown? Acceleration more like:

as I said, this is based on my experience of the areas I am looking in, and the price bracket that I am looking in. I did not say it was indicative as a whole, as it clearly isn’t. I do believe that for certain profiles, the market is plateauing.

M.Cribben · 14-06-2018 1:35pm

dudara wrote: »

as I said, this is based on my experience of the areas I am looking in, and the price bracket that I am looking in. I did not say it was indicative as a whole, as it clearly isn’t. I do believe that for certain profiles, the market is plateauing.

Out if interest, what areas/property types/price bracket are plateauing?

Property Market 2018

Comments