Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

cyclops999 · 15-12-2018 11:15am

Persistent rain in Athlone even street lights coming back on getting very dark

uck51js9zml2yt · 15-12-2018 11:17am

North Kerry is clear for now. Had some rain earlier but so far so good

Harry Palmr · 15-12-2018 11:17am

Very wet. The wind not such a thing right now was stronger overnight. Loads of roads flooded and a few cars blown off the road according to the local news.

SpaceRocket · 15-12-2018 11:24am

licklelee5 wrote: »

We are due to fly into Dublin from the UK at around 8pm, just wondering if anyone in the know thinks this will still be likely?
Will start to make alternative plans.
Thanks all, always great advice here.

Have a pick up for a flight landing around 6pm. Would also be interested to know if this is now unlikely with dub airport forcasting 60knots for this timeframe..

Gaoth Laidir · 15-12-2018 11:27am

cyclops999 wrote: »

Persistent rain in Athlone even street lights coming back on getting very dark

Met Éireann now issue metars from Custume Barracks in Athlone. Here's the latest from 10:18. Wind 18 kts, visibility 9 KM, moderate rain, overcast at 1500 ft, slp 991 hPa.

SPECI EIAC 151018Z AUTO 14018KT 9000 RA OVC015/// 10/09 Q0991=

Little snowy old me · 15-12-2018 11:29am

Strong wind, near gale gusts, and moderate rain. Clondalkin.

SleetAndSnow · 15-12-2018 11:30am

Morning all. Raining in cork city stm but there are some strong gusts that are hitting against my house alright.

squarecircles · 15-12-2018 11:34am

turned to night here in west mayo,biblical rain

JCX BXC · 15-12-2018 11:34am

Eerily calm and sunny in West Clare atm.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 11:38am

Pressures observed 10h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W

52N

:

:986

:--991----: (Val G40)
.................................................................^^.............991...
51.5

:

:----989--:

K-: (K n/a)
....................................................987................................
51N ---991--- :

:

:
.........................................................................................
50.5

:

:
..............................(10)LOW(984).......................................
50N

:----(09)LOW(986) :

:

:
.........................................................................................
49.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
49N

:

:
..........................994..........................................................
48.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
48N

:

:
................................................................................1003...

Analysis: At 10h, most pressures on the grid had fallen 1-2 mbs and the satellite fix was only slightly north-north-east of the previous hour as shown, now about 50.2N 11.8W. A rapid pressure rise of 6 mbs occurred at K1. It appears to me that the centre is deepening with better organization in the past hour. Given the obs at the K1 buoy, the wind field is rapidly intensifying (K1 veered from south 34 knots at 0900 to west 39 at 1000). This is supported by stronger gusts reaching as far north as Valentia in the past hour.

There is support so far for the more intense Hirlam FMI solution but I would say that proof of that will come either at 1100 or 1200 with rapid pressure falls at the M3 buoy which should be right in the path of developing storm "Deirdre."

next map then at 1140h for 1100h. (will know about M3 by 1120 though, might just post a comment then).

fryup · 15-12-2018 11:42am

looking at the ventusky website it looks a fairly mild storm

mickger844posts · 15-12-2018 11:44am

For the day thats in it i've started a Live Stream from Waterford City

https://www.youtube.com/c/WaterfordMeteo/live

Sycamore Tree · 15-12-2018 11:45am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Eerily calm and sunny in West Clare atm.

Sun trying to break out in Galway too. Looks fairly bright on Black Head too.

tikkamark · 15-12-2018 11:51am

Seriously heavy rain here in Mullingar the last hour very strong sharp gusts too,enough to shake parked cars

rebel456 · 15-12-2018 11:57am

From looking at Ventusky yesterday compared to today it appears Storm Deirdre has tracked slightly more southerly. Is that what others are seeing?

Now though those on the peninsulas of West Cork will still get a battering. Cork Airport too looking to be in the firing line for anyone flying today.

tikkamark · 15-12-2018 11:58am

Seems to be a lot of thunder activity in the cork area now and for the next few hours too

squarecircles · 15-12-2018 11:59am

wind has just picked up here in west mayo,place covered in floods

martyfurey · 15-12-2018 12:01pm

Well the wind is blowing and driving the rain hard against the windows here outside kilbeggan. It's brutal out. I had planned on going to Dublin to do the Christmases shopping and to absorb the atmosphere. Cancelled as I think the only thing I would be absorbing is the rain and wind. Looks like it will be brutal later in Dublin. Stay safe fgolks

Oscar Bravo · 15-12-2018 12:07pm

Cork airport 1030 991hpa. 11am 989hpa. Falling sharply now.

Little snowy old me · 15-12-2018 12:08pm

Strong winds and rain has eased in Clondalkin. Still overcast but brighter now. See what the afternoon brings.

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 12:10pm

Looks like the end of the world out there; "not with a bang but a whimper." Disorientating. so dark at this hour .

Just been out and the whole land around the dwelling is starting to vanish. The dwelling is becoming an island on an island..totally safe, assuring you...fascinating.
west mayo offshore

Sycamore Tree · 15-12-2018 12:12pm

What a strange country. Blue skies breaking in Galway now. Not much but welcome brightness in the darkness.

JCX BXC · 15-12-2018 12:13pm

Latest TAF max gusts

Max Gusts:
Dublin 55kts
Shannon 50kts
Cork 58kts
Knock 48kts.

SleetAndSnow · 15-12-2018 12:14pm

cloudy in cork but not raining atm , some gusts but died down but it’s very dark. Have to have the lights etc on.

BringBackMick · 15-12-2018 12:14pm

The TAF speeds will give a good fix on what the Harmonie model is going for.

Oscar Bravo · 15-12-2018 12:16pm

Plenty of lightning off the SW coast now

Rikand · 15-12-2018 12:17pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

That rainfall warning isn’t even active yet but it’s lashing in cork city! My mother’s delighted that a storm has finally been naned After her haha. This storm has been getting stronger and stronger each run so hopefully it doesn’t get much stronger.

My mother and her brother were land falling atlantic hurricanes this year.

Little snowy old me · 15-12-2018 12:19pm

Liffey Valley Shopping Centre is busy but nowhere as busy as would be expected on the second last Saturday before Christmas. Retailers, especially high street ones, won't be happy if people stay away and no severe weather materialises.

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 12:20pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Plenty of lightning off the SW coast now

lightning? Oh no! it is getting lighter though... and heavier rain. apocalyptic

Gaoth Laidir · 15-12-2018 12:35pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Latest TAF max gusts

Max Gusts:
Dublin 55kts
Shannon 50kts
Cork 58kts
Knock 48kts.

Waterford 50 kts (down from 58 kts earlier)
Casement, Sligo 50 kts
Donegal, Kerry 45 kts

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 12:42pm

Pressures observed 1100h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W

52N

:

:985

:--990----:
.................................................................^^.............990...
51.5

:

:----988--:

K-: (K n/a)
....................................................985................................
51N ---992--- :

:

:
.........................................................................................
50.5

:

LOW(982) 11h

:

:
.........................................................................................
50N

:

LOW(984) 10h

:

:
.........................................................................................
49.5

:

:
.....................LOW(986).09h..................................................
49N

:

:
..........................998..........................................................
48.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
48N

:

:
................................................................................1003...

Analysis: Low has been reset for 0900h on this chart based on a better fix from different satellite imagery. Steady motion northeast to this point and gradual deepening.

My conclusion is that the Hirlam FMI solution may verify or at least be better than most other guidance. Satellite imagery showing nearly circular low pressure organization and much of the guidance seems to assign leading role to northern end of low pressure trough, but energy seems to be stronger with southern end. Will bet on the Hirlam FMI to provide reasonable guidance. In other words, expect the onset of very strong winds on the south coast around 1 to 2 p.m. lasting 3-5 hours, these will spread well inland and turn increasingly southwest to west in direction. Dublin likely to see strongest winds around 6 to 8 p.m.

Low analyzed at about 50.5 N 10.8 W. Looks to be a little east of Hirlam FMI track, may hit land closer to east Cork than Kerry.

Mortelaro · 15-12-2018 12:43pm

Arklow harbour a few minutes ago

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1073904395283181570?s=09

Cloudio9 · 15-12-2018 12:44pm

SpaceRocket wrote: »

Have a pick up for a flight landing around 6pm. Would also be interested to know if this is now unlikely with dub airport forcasting 60knots for this timeframe..

Wind direction is forecast to be 260 degrees which means there’s a good chance of landing on runway 28.

flazio · 15-12-2018 12:50pm

Looking at flightradar at the minute, doesn't appear to be any aircraft in a holding pattern or diverted, one Ryanair from Gatwick has done a go around, but looks like they're all getting down.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 12:51pm

Very mild here near Tralee at 13.2C. 6mm since midnight. Breezy up to 50 km/h but not strong.

983.3 hPa Falling Rapidly

Strongest winds S of the main band of cloud off the SW

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1073869480458096640

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 12:51pm

Hearing the wind awakening, and the crashing of breakers on the shore... is this Deirdre storming in?

Getting louder..... and louder...

west mayo offshore island

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 12:53pm

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Dec 2018

ISSUED 10:37 UTC Sat 15 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Much of this forecast period is characterised by marginal instability but strong upper forcing, as a deepening area of low pressure migrates northwards across Ireland, pushing an active frontal system eastwards across the British Isles.

Aside from the risk of severe weather as a result of rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain across England, Wales and Scotland, there may be a window of opportunity for some well-forced convection to occur over the Republic of Ireland on Saturday afternoon, either along or just ahead of the wrap-around occlusion. Strong low-level shear and a marked wind veer suggests the potential for perhaps a tornado. Some sporadic lightning and hail will be possible - reluctant to issue a SLGT since the risk of lightning is considered below the 30% threshold, but have issued a low-end SLGT to better highlight the areas at risk.

Elsewhere, showers will become more widespread over the Celtic Sea and English Channel (and adjacent land areas) on Saturday night as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs. A few sporadic lightning strikes, small hail and gusty winds will be possible from the most intense cells.

Oscar Bravo · 15-12-2018 12:55pm

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

Update: Storm Deirdre will move quickly across the country this afternoon and evening and will move through the Irish Sea early tonight.
It will give some squally, damaging winds in all areas for a short period of time.
In Munster and Connacht winds will peak mid to late afternoon, depending on location and in Leinster and Ulster in the early evening.
West to northwest winds 55 to 65 km/h will gust 100 to 110 km/h generally, but some gusts will reach up to 130 km/h in exposed locations.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Updated: Saturday 15 December 2018 11:31

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 14:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

BlackandGreen · 15-12-2018 12:57pm

The local river here in south Kilkenny has tripled in volume.
Haven't seen it that high in a long time. I can tell from past experiences we're looking at some bad flooding if the rain is to continue right up until this evening.

Christmas shopping and family event cancelled today. Going to hold the fort here today.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 1:02pm

No great change in the ICON 9Z, strongest winds along the coasts. ARPEGE similar, AROME keeping the strongest winds a bit further off the coasts.

average_runner · 15-12-2018 1:05pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Liffey Valley Shopping Centre is busy but nowhere as busy as would be expected on the second last Saturday before Christmas. Retailers, especially high street ones, won't be happy if people stay away and no severe weather materialises.

Weather has nothing to.do with liffey valley numbers.

Little snowy old me · 15-12-2018 1:11pm

average_runner wrote: »

Weather has nothing to.do with liffey valley numbers.

Yes it does. Liffey Valley attracts shoppers from a huge catchment area. People may be reluctant to drive if severe weather expected.

15-12-2018 1:11pm

average_runner wrote: »

Weather has nothing to.do with liffey valley numbers.

Shopping no, but driving to and from the shopping centre and getting wet between the car and the shops yes.

Nothing worse that traipsing around the shops in wet clothes.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 1:14pm

Probably see a sting jet develop off the S / SE of Ireland this afternoon but should stay well out to sea. Heavier rain making its way into Kerry now.

Sycamore Tree · 15-12-2018 1:17pm

The queue in Penneys Galway is miles long and the car parks are full. Consumerism trumps Deirdre.

Cork Boy 53 · 15-12-2018 1:28pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

The queue in Penneys Galway is miles long and the car parks are full. Consumerism trumps Deirdre.

Deirdre is only now just making landfall in the southwest. Wait another few hours and there might be a different story in your area.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 1:35pm

The reds are convective clouds, the pinks are large drops giving heavy rain , the yellow is supercooled water clouds as is forecast over in the UK today.

Heavy showers in Tralee now

EUMETSTAT

11.30

average_runner · 15-12-2018 1:46pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Shopping no, but driving to and from the shopping centre and getting wet between the car and the shops yes.

Nothing worse that traipsing around the shops in wet clothes.

Liffey valley is always more packed during wet weather than dry. Only place people can go

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 1:48pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Deirdre is only now just making landfall in the southwest. Wait another few hours and there might be a different story in your area.

You stole my thoughts.

Just been out at the back and the ocean that was calm and still earlier is a frenzy of white roaring breakers, row after row streaming in. Wind rising fast now. And only just beginning I think?

west mayo offshore

fred funk }{ · 15-12-2018 1:50pm

I bought a 40ft trampoline this morning and was hoping to put it together and have a bounce on her later this afternoon. What do you think my chances are?

Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

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