2018 Hurricane Season

Gaoth Laidir · 11-09-2018 7:33am

It does look like the Azores is in for a severe hit from Helene. This could be serious.

daphne · 11-09-2018 9:25am

Really nice image of the 3 out in the Atlantic - from here: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php

BumperD · 11-09-2018 12:58pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It does look like the Azores is in for a severe hit from Helene. This could be serious.

Its forecast to have downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it’s in the Azores, doubtful the impact will be anything that even makes the minor news headlines outside the local press.

cherryghost · 11-09-2018 2:27pm

Certainly livening up indeed

Oneiric 3 · 11-09-2018 3:27pm

This is certainly an interesting development on the outer stages of this morning's ECM run:

Darwin · 11-09-2018 7:33pm

Still there on the 12z ECM....a bit too close for comfort!

star gazer · 11-09-2018 8:00pm

Invest 95L (potentially Joyce) moving into the Gulf of Mexico is up to a 70% formation chance in the coming five days.

...
1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

NHC

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1039581086890618880

Rikand · 13-09-2018 11:30pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just looking at this graphic, Isaac looks to strengthen slightly as it approaches Cuba. Any talk of it strengthening further in the culf of mexico and causing problems to the southern US?

Gaoth Laidir · 22-09-2018 5:41pm

Tropical Storm Kirk has formed south of Cabo Verde and will track towards the southern Leeward Islands by Day 5. That's on the very southern limit of where storms can spin up due to the almost zero Coriolis force there.

al122018.18092206.gif

Gaoth Laidir · 22-09-2018 8:35pm

The 18Z SHIPS has Kirk strengthening to Cat 1/borderline 2 of around 75-80 knots as it approaches Barbados in 5 days' time. Barbados is normally too far south to get direct hits, so it will be interesting to see if Kirk bucks the trend.

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al122018/stext/18092218AL1218_ships.txt

Ocean Heat Content is fairly low along the way, hence only moderate strengthening.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-09-2018 10:18am

The NHC are really bullish in forecasting no real intensification of Kirk (lower red OFCL curve) despite what the majority of models show. They're siding with the GFS and ECM dynamic models on this one for now. The SHIPS 06Z still has it at around 77 kts in 5 days.

Kirk has no real structure at present due to strong easterly shear. Hard to know exactly where the centre is.

Gaoth Laidir · 24-09-2018 7:25am

Kirk never really got going and has now been downgraded to a tropical depression. It's expected to dissipate into a wave an time now.

Subtropical storm Leslie formed yesterday but it too will dissipate in the next couple of days. The Atlantic has gone quiet again after that brief flare up.

hatrickpatrick · 24-09-2018 5:26pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Kirk never really got going and has now been downgraded to a tropical depression. It's expected to dissipate into a wave an time now.

Subtropical storm Leslie formed yesterday but it too will dissipate in the next couple of days. The Atlantic has gone quiet again after that brief flare up.

It hasn't gone that quiet...

The orange shaded areas are both likely to develop into tropical cyclones within the next five days.

Gaoth Laidir · 24-09-2018 5:55pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

It hasn't gone that quiet...

The orange shaded areas are both likely to develop into tropical cyclones within the next five days.

The site doesn't have those orange areas on the map now. In any case, the development off the east US coast was only to last 1 or two days before dissipating. Leslie will become extratropical the same time frame. Kirk is now a remnant trough. Both Kirk and Leslie never became anything resembling a tropical system.

hatrickpatrick · 24-09-2018 7:00pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The site doesn't have those orange areas on the map now. In any case, the development off the east US coast was only to last 1 or two days before dissipating. Leslie will become extratropical the same time frame. Kirk is now a remnant trough. Both Kirk and Leslie never became anything resembling a tropical system.

It does have them but only in its five-day outlook. Neither is expected to form within the next 48 hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Essentially though, the hurricane season will likely not pick up again until the current upper trough over the Caribbean moves away. The sheer amount of shear (hehe) is astronomical there at the moment.

Gaoth Laidir · 24-09-2018 7:49pm

All only 50% chance in the next 5 days. It's been a fairly quiet season, save for one brief flare-up this month.

Gaoth Laidir · 25-09-2018 7:10pm

Leslie has now been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone as it becomes absorbed by a cold front, but it will strengthen to 65 knots as it becomes extratropical over the next couple of days. It will then cut off from the westerlies and meander about, picking up subtropical characteristics again by the weekend.

WTNT43 KNHC 251439 TCDAT3
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie
Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

Leslie has become a post-tropical cyclone. Conventional and microwave satellite imagery show that Leslie's surface circulation has become elongated along an intruding baroclinic zone indicated by a recent 1158 UTC ASCAT-A pass. Any deep convection appears to be developing due to dynamic forcing. A rather large stratocumulus cloud shield and associated cooler, stable air is quickly advecting into the area as well. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this last advisory.

Leslie is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days due to baroclinic processes. The official forecast, based on the GFS and European global models, and the SHIPS statistical intensity guidance, shows an increase of the sustained winds to hurricane force in 2 days, around the same period that the shear drops below 10 kt. The non-tropical low is then forecast to move south of the strong upper-level westerlies and detach from the frontal boundary. According to the global models and the Florida State Cyclone Phase forecast, Leslie should make a transition from a frontal system to an asymmetric shallow warm-core seclusion. Beyond day 3, guidance suggests that Leslie will acquire subtropical characteristics and a more symmetric, deepening warm-core low while meandering in weaker steering currents. The intensity forecast follows this scenario and is based on the aforementioned global and statistical models.

Leslie is now moving eastward at a slightly faster forward motion, about 10 kt. A turn to the north is expected in 36 hours followed by a slower westward motion as Leslie slips south of the mid-latitude westerlies. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Leslie should move at a slower speed generally westward as a ridge builds to the north. NHC forecast is nudged toward the TVCN consensus through 48 hours, then follows more closely to the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) consensus model. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas

Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 31.6N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0000Z 32.1N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 33.6N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 35.6N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 36.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z 35.5N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
96H 29/1200Z 34.6N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
120H 30/1200Z 34.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

Gaoth Laidir · 26-09-2018 10:39am

Kirk has become a 40-kt tropical storm again and will affect the Lesser Antilles on Thursday before dissipating again.

Rikand · 03-10-2018 6:17pm

All the clickbait rags have hurricane Leslie about to slam Ireland after dramatic uturn

So I come to the weather forum to see if there's any mention of it. Nothing on the front page.

So nothing to worry about then

sdanseo · 03-10-2018 6:50pm

ECM seems to show a very deep depression in around 10 days from what you'd imagine are the remnants of Leslie. 948mb between us and Iceland which is no joke if it moved east.

But it's more than a week away. Might as well hang a fish out your window and use it to predict snow in January.

Meteorite58 · 03-10-2018 11:28pm

A wide spread on the ECMWF spaghetti plot for Leslie , it had shown the remnants merge with other weather systems off the W coast of Ireland by next weekend but dropped it again , instead keeping it in the Sub Tropics. GFS has shown for a few runs now the weakened and filling remnants of Leslie off the W coast by around next fri. ???

05-10-2018 3:11pm

Leslie steadfastly refusing to do the normal thing and move N/NE and eventually get picked up by the mid-latitude Westerlies. Latest NHC advisories moves it N for a while but then turning SE maintaining tropical characteristics out to next Wednesday at least. First NHC discussion on this system was on Sunday 23 Sept, so it's hanging around a bit.

08-10-2018 2:29pm

Leslie due to become a hurricane in the middle of the week. Current GFS modelling has it zipping past the West coast of Ireland over the weekend while the ECM heads it toward Spain and dissipating.

08-10-2018 2:37pm

Michael due to become a hurricane shortly and threaten the Gulf Coast sometime on Wednesday. SHIPS forecast is 86 kts when about 100 miles from land (round midday Wednesday).

Kermit.de.frog · 08-10-2018 4:47pm

Yes, Michael is now a hurricane and expected to become a major Category 3 (possibly higher?) hurricane over the next 48 hours before threatening Florida panhandle.

Definitely need to watch this one.

Birdnuts · 08-10-2018 10:40pm

Anyone got updates on that system in the Arabian Sea??

greedygoblin · 08-10-2018 11:36pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

Anyone got updates on that system in the Arabian Sea??

Cyclonic storm Luban. Forecast to become a severe cyclonic storm over the next day or two. From the RSMC (New Delhi):

The cyclonic storm over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Arabian sea moved further West-Northwestwards with a speed of about 11 kmph in last 03 hours and lay centered at 1800 UTC of 08th October 2018 over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Arabian sea, near latitude 12.7°N and longitude 60.5°E, about 840 km East-Southeast of Salalah (Oman), 980 km East-Southeast of Al-Ghaidah (41398-Yemen) and 710 km East of Socotra islands (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move West-Northwestwards towards south Oman & Yemen coasts during next 5 days.

sdanseo · 09-10-2018 7:36pm

I got a proper chuckle from the NHC's latest synopsis of Leslie. Slowly on a mission to turn the Atlantic into an earth version of Jupiter's big red spot.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/091440.shtml?

I can't rule out that Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.

Gaoth Laidir · 09-10-2018 8:44pm

TS Nadine has made what will be a cameo appearance in the eastern Atlantic this evening too. Not set to amount to much and will dissipate in a couple of days.

sdanseo · 11-10-2018 10:46pm

When was the last time the Canaries were hit by a Hurricane/TS?

Gaoth Laidir · 11-10-2018 11:59pm

sdanseo wrote: »

When was the last time the Canaries were hit by a Hurricane/TS?

There's massive uncertainty with the track forecast, the largest forecaster Blake has ever witnessed. It could equally head west instead of east.

Magic ]=) · 12-10-2018 12:20am

Was just looking at windy.com and a three models out of four are showing something big for next Tuesday. Have anyone seen that ??
According to windy it will form right after Michael.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2018 11:55pm

Hurricane Leslie has been meandering around the mid-Atlantic since 23rd of September but has finally decided to make a dash for it and make landfall about mid-way up the coast of Portugal tomorrow night as a 55-65-kt post-tropical storm.

Akrasia · 22-10-2018 10:32am

Hurricane Willa is currently a Category 4 and likely to make landfall tomorrow on the West coast of Mexico as a Category 5

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1MV0XB
Is it just me or has there been a change in how often rapid intensification has been occurring this year?

Gaoth Laidir · 22-10-2018 1:30pm

Akrasia wrote: »

Hurricane Willa is currently a Category 4 and likely to make landfall tomorrow on the West coast of Mexico as a Category 5

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1MV0XB
Is it just me or has there been a change in how often rapid intensification has been occurring this year?

Climatologically, these two weeks are the prime time for major East Pacific hurricanes. Patricia was 3 years ago now and most years throw a major in at this time too. Still-warm SST combined with the northward retreat of the jet stream lead to perfect conditions.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1054215425142120448

I haven't seen any evidence that this year has been any more rapid than other years.

22-10-2018 10:01pm

Just about a Cat 3 at landfall sometime tomorrow evening according to the 18Z SHIPS forecast, Increasing shear should take its toll on the system. Eyewall replacement cycle interfering as well according to the NHC.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-10-2018 12:08am

Eyewall replacement cycle tonight. Hopefully it will lead to weakening before landfall.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-10-2018 9:13pm

Willa has just passed over Isla Madre off the Mexico coast, with a gust of 111 kts reported at the local station (67 ft amsl). Current intensity is 105 kts (Cat 3) and weakening to probably borderline 2-3 by landfall in about 4 hours.

Akrasia · 24-10-2018 10:01am

Willa made landfall as a cat 3 with winds of 120mph last night and weakened quickly as it encountered Mexico's mountainous terrain.

Hopefully loss of life will be low but there is a strong risk of mudslides and flash flooding due to the terrain in the region.

Meteorite58 · 29-10-2018 9:01pm

The NHC saying that Hurricane Oscar will strengthen to just below major Hurricane status in 24- 36 hrs. As it moves N / NE in about 48hrs it is set to gradually weaken as it passes over cooler SST's and increasing shear. It is set to transition to a strong extratropical low in 60 - 72 hrs.

The NHC noting ' Although a strong shortwave trough is
still forecast to dig southward to the west of Oscar on Wednesday,
none of the model guidance shows the hurricane being captured any
longer, and instead keep the cyclone as a separate entity that
accelerates northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies as a
strong extratropical cyclone'.

The NHC track would appear a bit closer to Ireland than the models currently suggest.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 25.8N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 28.7N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 31.4N 56.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 35.0N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 43.0N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z 55.0N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATRO

Rikand · 30-10-2018 12:00am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Look to the East/Southeast of the hurricane there in the convectivey looking clouds. What is the line like feature that is developing and moving south - Looks like a squall line ? How much distance would it cover if so ?

Meteorite58 · 30-10-2018 1:04am

Latest guidance from the NHC shifts the track of what will become ex tropical storm Oscar further away again from Ireland keeping storm force winds well out to sea. Windy along the coasts.

Meteorite58 · 30-10-2018 1:52am

Look to the East/Southeast of the hurricane there in the convectivey looking clouds. What is the line like feature that is developing and moving south - Looks like a squall line ? How much distance would it cover if so ?

Still firing away but maybe not as organised as seen in the earlier Satellite gif. Not much showing up on the charts to identify what it might be, I would hazard a guess and say an upper trough / tropical wave, possibly formed from the disturbance of Hurricane Oscar , moving over warm SST's with a lot of shear aiding convection.

No Expert maybe others could shed more light.

Further S huge active convection from the Monsoon Trof coming off W Africa . Very cold high cloud tops over warm SST's

Gaoth Laidir · 30-10-2018 8:08am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest guidance from the NHC shifts the track of what will become ex tropical storm Oscar further away again from Ireland keeping storm force winds well out to sea. Windy along the coasts.

The white line shows the extent of uncertainty in the location of the centre, so it is possible that it could be much nearer to (or further from) Ireland at that stage. In any case they have it down to just gale-force (45-kt 1-minute mean) by then so not much to worry about.

Gaoth Laidir · 30-10-2018 8:23am

Rikand wrote: »

Look to the East/Southeast of the hurricane there in the convectivey looking clouds. What is the line like feature that is developing and moving south - Looks like a squall line ? How much distance would it cover if so ?

Looks like just a type of cold front in an area of strong deep windshear. Cooler, drier air was being dragged around the south of the centre, as shown by the blue in the scan below. Convection was firing up to the east and southeast. Look at how strong the shear was in the satellite animation, with the tops being dragged to the northeast. It's nothing significant and as you said, it's dissipated a bit by now.

20181029.2146.f17.x.91h_1deg.16LOSCAR.80kts-978mb-262N-585W.067pc.jpg

20181029.2146.f17.x.91h_1deg.16LOSCAR.80kts-978mb-262N-585W.067pc.jpg

Gaoth Laidir · 01-12-2018 1:33am

The 2018 hurricane has now ended, and at 128.9 units it ranks 35th for total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). The 1981-2010 average is 104.1 and the highest 3 years are 1933 (259), 2005 (245) and 1893 (231).

Other stats (average/rank):

Named storms: 15 (11.9/tied 16th)
Hurricanes: 8 (6.3/tied 22nd)
Major hurricanes: 2 (2.7/tied 43rd)
Major hurricane days: 5 (6.2/tied 53rd).

Only 2 storms had peak winds of 100 knots or more: Michael (135 kt) and Florence (120 kt).

YanSno · 19-12-2018 8:02pm

Moderate tropical cyclone in the Indian ocean. Expected to intensify to an intense tropical cyclone at the closest point of Mauritius

YanSno · 20-12-2018 8:17pm

HWRF lastest predicts that intense tropical cyclone cilida will brush the north east coast of Mauritius / cat 5 equivalent with gusts exceeding 280 km per hour.

https://imgur.com/a/rBwX5TS

YanSno · 20-12-2018 8:41pm

YanSno · 21-12-2018 7:59am

Tropical cyclone cilida continues to intensify, should reach intense stage during the day. Very distinctive eye. Current minimum pressure 955hp

2018 Hurricane Season

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