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September 2011 Boards forecast contest

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2

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    #32
    Strasser
    Registered Users Posts: 240 ✭✭Strasser


    IMT 12.6..... MAX 20.4..... MIN 1.2..... PRC 95..... SUN 90..... 15.0/10


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    #33
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,505 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    13.1..... 21.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 125 ..... 90 ..... 16/4


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    #34
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    12.9 ..... 24.9 ..... -.9 ..... 89 ..... 129 ..... 16.9/3.9


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    #35
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    12.1 ..... 23.2 ..... -0.5 ..... 122 ..... 89 ..... 17.1/9mms


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    #36
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    12.4.....21.7.....2.4.....110.....105..... 15.9/3.5

    Nearly forgot :eek::D

    EDIT. Dont think it will rain much on Sunday :)


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    #37
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    13.0 ..... 22.8 ..... 0.6 ..... 139 ..... 88 ..... 15.7/7.0


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    #38
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭kindredspirit


    12.7 ..... 21.0 ..... 1.5 ..... 110 ..... 95 ..... 15.0/6.0

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



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    #39
    Lumi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    12.6 ..... 20.9 ..... -1.3 ..... 109 ..... 93 ..... 15.0/5.7


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    #40
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    12.9 ..... 22.3 ..... 0.9 ..... 96 ..... 100 ..... 16/5.3


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    #41
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    13.0c ..... 21.3c ..... 1.2c ..... 108% ..... 97% ..... 16.7c/6.4mm


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    #42
    traecy1
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭traecy1


    12.8.....22.4.....1.3.....105.....110.....16.8/6.2


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    #43
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭waterways


    12.5 ..... 19.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 128 ..... 93 ..... 16.3/5


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    #44
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    12.1c ..... 21.1c ..... -0.2c..... 107 ..... 89 ..... 15.2/1.8


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    #45
    nilhg
    Registered Users Posts: 5,117 ✭✭✭nilhg


    12.9c ..... 22.1c ..... -1.2c..... 91 ..... 109 ..... 15.7/4.8


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    September forecasts received by 0300h 3rd
    _______________________________________________

    Forecaster ......... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Dub-4th
    ________________________________________________________________

    octo .................. 13.5 ..... 24.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 17.0/5.0
    H2UMrsRobinson .. 13.3 ..... 21.6 ...... 4.5 ..... 101 ..... 102 ..... 19.6/1.1
    redsunset ........... 13.2 ..... 21.5 ...... 0.5 ..... 120 ..... 095 ..... 17.0/12.0
    Jerry Seinfeld ...... 13.1 ..... 21.0 ...... 1.0 ..... 125 ..... 090 ..... 16.0/4.0
    DOCARCH ........... 13.0 ..... 21.3 ...... 1.2 ..... 108 ..... 097 ..... 16.7/6.4
    MiNdGaM3 .......... 13.0 ..... 22.8 ...... 0.6 ..... 139 ..... 088 ..... 15.7/7.0
    thetonynator ...... 13.0 ..... 21.0 ...... 1.8 ..... 085 ..... 120 ..... 16.0/1.2
    Joe Public .......... 12.9 ..... 24.9 ..... -0.9 ..... 089 ..... 129 ..... 16.9/3.9
    Deep Easterly ..... 12.9 ..... 22.3 ...... 0.9 ..... 096 ..... 100 ..... 16.0/5.3
    nilhg ................. 12.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.2 ..... 091 ..... 109 ..... 15.7/4.8
    M.T. Cranium ...... 12.9 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.6 ..... 135 ..... 077 ..... 15.4/12.5
    traecy1 ............. 12.8 ..... 22.4 ...... 1.3 ..... 105 ..... 110 ..... 16.8/6.2
    okla .................. 12.8 ..... 20.3 ...... 2.2 ..... 090 ..... 088 ..... 17.5/0.0
    rameire ............. 12.8 ..... 21.4 ...... 1.2 ..... 110 ..... 089 ..... 14.0/14.0
    Harps ............... 12.8 ..... 21.8 ..... -0.4 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 17.6/12.0
    dasa29 ............. 12.8 ..... 22.0 ..... -0.5 ..... 095 ..... 095 ..... 18.0/2.0
    Su Campu ......... 12.8 ..... 23.7 ...... 1.2 ..... 100 ..... 110 ..... 15.5/4.5
    kindredspirit ....... 12.7 ..... 21.0 ...... 1.5 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 15.0/6.0
    mickger844posts . 12.7 ..... 20.6 ...... 0.5 ..... 116 ..... 088 ..... 15.4/15.0
    4Sheets ............ 12.7 ..... 21.0 ..... -2.0 ..... 125 ..... 083 ..... 14.5/8.5
    nacho libre ........ 12.6 ..... 18.2 ..... -2.1 ..... 130 ..... 085 ..... 15.3/10.0
    Fionagus ........... 12.6 ..... 20.9 ..... -1.3 ..... 109 ..... 093 ..... 15.0/5.7
    Strasser ............ 12.6 ..... 20.4 ...... 1.2 ..... 095 ..... 090 ..... 15.0/10.0

    Con Sensus ........ 12.6 ..... 21.0 ..... -0.5 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 15.8/5.8

    fizzycyst ........... 12.6 ..... 18.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 095 ..... 092 ..... 15.7/12.3
    homolumo .......... 12.6 ..... 18.2 ..... -1.7 ..... 101 ..... 086 ..... 15.7/0.0
    Rickylovesuall ..... 12.6 ..... 20.1 ...... 2.0 ..... 097 ..... 102 ..... 18.1/0.0
    hellboy99 .......... 12.6 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 121 ..... 090 ..... 15.2/11.0
    Tae laidir ........... 12.5 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.6 ..... 132 ..... 088 ..... 13.6/6.6
    waterways ........ 12.5 ..... 19.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 128 ..... 093 ..... 16.3/5.0
    200motels ......... 12.4 ..... 20.5 ...... 0.5 ..... 149 ..... 082 ..... 18.6/9.0
    John mac .......... 12.4 ..... 21.7 ...... 2.4 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... 15.9/3.5
    snowstreams ..... 12.4 ..... 20.4 ..... -0.5 ..... 105 ..... 095 ..... 15.8/6.0
    ch750536* ........ 12.4 ..... 18.8 ..... -2.0 ..... 112 ..... 100 ..... 15.0/15.0
    Iancar29 ........... 12.2 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.0 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 12.3/10.0
    jd* .................. 12.2 ..... 20.1 ..... -1.8 ..... 128 ..... 091 ..... 15.2/10.5
    Sponge Bob ....... 12.1 ..... 21.1 ..... -0.2 ..... 107 ..... 089 ..... 15.2/1.8
    dacogawa ......... 12.1 ..... 23.2 ..... -0.5 ..... 122 ..... 089 ..... 17.1/9.0
    talkabout .......... 12.0 ..... 18.5 ..... -0.5 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 16.2/1.2
    NIALL_D ........... 12.0 ..... 19.0 ...... 1.0 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 17.0/0.0
    cherryghost ...... 12.0 ..... 21.0 ..... -1.0 ..... 130 ..... 085 ..... 15.5/4.0
    pauldry ............ 11.9 ..... 20.2 ...... 0.2 ..... 125 ..... 092 ..... 17.4/5.0
    jambofc ........... 11.9 ..... 19.1 ..... -0.8 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 16.5/5.0
    The Inquisitor .... 11.6 ..... 18.4 ..... -2.0 ..... 127 ..... 084 ..... 15.3/0.0
    SeaFields .......... 11.3 ..... 17.5 ...... 0.0 ..... 100 ..... 090 ..... 12.5/0.0
    demakinz .......... 11.2 ..... 18.7 ..... -3.0 ..... 090 ..... 060 ..... 11.0/11.0

    Con Sensus will be added with any late entries. See post #1 of this thread for the late penalty to be applied to the bonus which is early in the month
    (4th).


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    #47
    ch750536
    Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Oops

    IMT 12.4
    MAX 18.8
    MIN -2
    PRC 112
    SUN 100
    B 15/15mm


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    #48
    jd
    Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭jd


    . 12.2 ..... 20.1 ..... -1.8 ..... 128 ..... 91....15.2/10.5


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    #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay then, editing these two "late" entries in (at 0300 3rd). See the table a few posts back.


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    #50
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    13.1.....22.7.....2.4.....80.....6.1mm

    Apologies for the late entry, somehow I thought today was 2nd Sept. :o


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    #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    For the bonus question, the max temp was 15.4 C and the rainfall 5.0 mms.

    Several people got one of these "spot on" but taking total error at multiples of 0.1 C plus 0.2 mm as equal in scale, I think (will check this more extensively when scoring) the smallest errors in total are these four:

    Su Campu (3.5 pts)

    nilhg (4 pts)

    cherryghost (5.5 pts)

    fionagus (7.5 pts)

    and various others were just about as close in this score that considers both elements.

    Con Sensus also scored higher than most with 12 error points.

    In fact our consensus forecast was probably better than the average of global models at 96 hours (not to mention 144 hours when some forecasts were submitted) so well done everyone.

    On an unrelated subject, does anyone know where station "1775" is located and why it has the name 1775? I just noticed it had started up on the met.ie site. Thanks.

    Fionagus answered this in another thread -- apparently it is a duplicate of Johnstown Castle and the number is some code for the station.

    Note for Danno's late late entry due to incomplete forecast the stated bonus penalty voids the partial forecast and the missing element in the forecast was precip (140%), I confirmed the above by PM. Bear in mind that the late late penalty in general is 10% of points above 50. I don't think this late forecast would affect Con Sensus as most of the median values were in clusters of similar forecasts anyway (which means one more will not move the median out of the cluster). Speaking of clusters ... just for future reference the highest temperature so far, I believe, is 20.3 on the first at Casement. Don't think that will hold. There hasn't been a low under 3 that I've noticed.


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    #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Report on the first week (1-7 Sept) ...

    IMT at 13.1 C

    Rainfall for the eleven stations in met summary at 160% of normal

    Sunshine (est due to one station incomplete) at 50% of normal

    I have the feeling we will be repeating these values after 14 days, give or take, but longer range models show the third week with potential for more sun and less rain. If that verified, these rather extreme values (compared to contest ranges) might begin to fade more into the contest consensus range.

    Temperatures may actually rise a bit in the coming week with a warmer period starting today and perhaps lasting through Monday. The expected rise will be rather modest by the 14th however.


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    #53
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    22.2C in Mullingar yesterday, highest of the month so far.


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    #54
    NIALL D
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    22.2C in Mullingar yesterday, highest of the month so far.

    any idea of the hottest day this year ?
    i think the highest in august was 25.5 ?


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    #55
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    NIALL D wrote: »
    any idea of the hottest day this year ?
    i think the highest in august was 25.5 ?

    According to the Met Eireann, the warmest day was the 3rd of June. Got to 25.5C in Oak Park.
    http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=127


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    #56
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update after 14 days ...

    The second week averaged 14.1 and this leaves the monthly average for the IMT at 13.7 ... it peaked at 13.9 on the 11th-12th.

    Rainfall in the past week was very close to normal (96%) for the eleven stations and this drops the monthly average to 128% of normal.

    Sunshine was up slightly from the first week at 69% but the running average is still a very dull 60% of normal.


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    #57
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,327 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ after 21 days
    _______________________

    The IMT for the past seven days was 12.8 C and this brings the monthly average down to about 13.4 C ... with only a slight further drop appearing likely, if not staying level.

    The past week was slightly on the wet side at 114% which leaves the monthly average at 123% of normal. I suspect this won't change much with some wet days and a dry spell in the forecast to complete the month.

    Sunshine remains elusive. The third week averaged 78% and might have been lower except that the Ag Report now routinely excludes Dublin which used to be in the report. I'm going to need to resolve this issue for reporting the weekly totals because Dublin will probably remain in the monthly summary reports. So assume that my running totals for this month might be a few percentage points off in whatever direction Dublin is different from the trend, by the looks of the data, it has been cloudier still. Anyway, that 78% figure changes the monthly average to a meagre 66% (which could still be above the real figure). Not much change likely with this either since the next three or four days could be mostly cloudy ... any late spell of fine weather will only be able to boost the eventual average into the 70-80 per cent range.


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    #58
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    UPDATE _ after 21 days
    _______________________

    The IMT for the past seven days was 12.8 C and this brings the monthly average down to about 13.4 C ... with only a slight further drop appearing likely, if not staying level.

    Should the IMT not be expected to rise by next friday due to higher expected temps than the previous days/nights in September?


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    #59
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    MT, the sun hours are reported in the 0600Z synop reports the following morning. Put in 03969 here and it'll give a list of daily values for Dublin Airport.


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    #60
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yes id say the IMT(Cranium) will rise to about 13.8c by the end of the month. hey is the tonynator going to run a max temp contest for this unusual warm spell. The West will do well to get to 20 but you never know. September sunshine would bring it up a little bit more. The weird thing is it could get very cold after this spell.


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    #61
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    pauldry wrote: »
    yes id say the IMT(Cranium) will rise to about 13.8c by the end of the month. hey is the tonynator going to run a max temp contest for this unusual warm spell. The West will do well to get to 20 but you never know. September sunshine would bring it up a little bit more. The weird thing is it could get very cold after this spell.

    Will set it up tomorrow if ya want, or if someone else wants to feel free!


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