September 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Please note, the deadline for entries without penalty will be end of Thursday, 1 September (0300h 2nd). Late entries this month face the usual penalty plus a 3-pt deduction on the bonus question which arrives early this month (on the fourth). Late late entries also subject to usual penalty and a five-point reduction on the bonus.

1. Predict the mean "IMT" value (which has been 12.7 C 1961-90, 12.9 1971-2000, and 13.2 for 1981-2010, data thanks to DE).

2. Predict the maximum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

3. Predict the minimum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

4. Predict the rainfall at eleven reporting sites as percentage of normal.

5. Predict the sunshine at six reporting sites as percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: Predict the maximum temperature and daily rainfall (mms) at Dublin A in connection with the Hurling finals on Sunday 4th.

TEMPLATE that entrants can use:

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... MAX/mms

Good luck and watch for a report on August's contest this Thursday evening or thereabouts.

TheInquisitor

IMT 11.6..... MAX 18.4..... MIN -2..... PRC 127..... SUN 84..... 15.3/0

NIALL D

IMT 12.... MAX 19.... MIN 1.... PRC 110.... SUN 92.... 17 / 0

Blizzard 2010

Below Average Mean between 0.5 - 1 degree

H2UMrsRobinson

IMT ...13.3.. MAX ...21.6.. MIN ..4.5... PRC ..101... SUN ..102... MAX/mms...19.6/1.1mms

pauldry

IMT 11.9..... MAX 20.2..... MIN 0.2..... PRC 125..... SUN 92..... 17.4/5mm

cherryghost

IMT 12....MAX...21...MIN... -1....PRC 130.... SUN 85.... BONUS 15.5/4mm

nacho libre

IMT 12.6 ....MAX...18.2...MIN... -2.1....PRC 130.... SUN 85.... BONUS 15.3/10mm

200motels

IMT 12.4..... MAX 20.5..... MIN 0.5..... PRC 149.... SUN 82.... 18.6/9mm

talkabout

IMT 12.0..... MAX 18.5..... MIN -0.5..... PRC 110.... SUN 95.... 16.2/1.2mm

fizzycyst

12.6....18.7....-1.0....95....92.... 15.7 / 12.3

okla

IMT 12.8 MAX 20.3 MIN 2.2 PRC 90 SUN 88 17.5/0mms

Iancar29

IMT 12.2C ....MAX...22.0C...MIN... -1.0C....PRC 90%.... SUN 95%.... BONUS 12.3C/10mm

thetonynator

13.0 ..... 21.0 ..... 1.8 ..... 85% ..... 120% ..... 16.0/1.2

octo

IMT .13.5.... MAX ..24... MIN ...1.. PRC .95%.... SUN ...105%.. MAX/mms...17deg/5mm

homolumo

12.6....18.2....-1.7....101....86.... 15.7 / 0

mickger844posts

12.7 ..... 20.6 ..... 0.5 ..... 116 ..... 88 ..... 15.4/15mm

Rikand

IMT 12.6..... MAX 20.1..... MIN 2..... PRC 97..... SUN 102..... 18.1/0

Redsunset

13.2.....21.5.......+0.5......120.......95.......17.0....12

snowstreams

IMT 12.4 MAX 20.4 MIN -0.5 PRC 105 SUN 95 15.8/6mm

M.T. Cranium

12.9 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.6 ..... 135 ..... 77 ..... 15.4/12.5 mms

Watch for August scores to appear some time Thursday afternoon.

4Sheets

12.7 ..... 21.0 ..... -2.0 ..... 125 ..... 83 ..... 14.5/8.5 mms

demakinz

IMT 11.2C ....MAX...18.7C...MIN... -3.0C....PRC 90%.... SUN 60%.... BONUS 11C/11mm

Harps

12.8 ..... 21.8 ..... -0.4 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... 17.6/12 mms

Tae laidir

12.5 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.6 ..... 132 ..... 88 ..... 13.6/6.6

dasa29

12.8c.... 22c.... -0.5c.... 95.... 95.... 18c/2mms

12.6 ..... 22 ..... -1.5 ..... 121 ..... 90 ..... 15.2/11

Su Campu

IMT 12.8..... MAX 23.7..... MIN 1.2..... PRC 100..... SUN 110..... MAX/mms 15.5/4.5

jambofc

11.9 ..... 19.1 ..... -0.8 ..... 110 ..... 95 ..... 16.5/5mm

rameire

12.8 ..... 21.4 ..... 1.2 ..... 110 ..... 89 ..... 14/14

SeaFields

11.3..... 17.5 ..... 0.0 ..... 100 ..... 90 ..... 12.5/0

Strasser

IMT 12.6..... MAX 20.4..... MIN 1.2..... PRC 95..... SUN 90..... 15.0/10

Speak Now

13.1..... 21.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 125 ..... 90 ..... 16/4

Joe Public

12.9 ..... 24.9 ..... -.9 ..... 89 ..... 129 ..... 16.9/3.9

dacogawa

12.1 ..... 23.2 ..... -0.5 ..... 122 ..... 89 ..... 17.1/9mms

John mac

12.4.....21.7.....2.4.....110.....105..... 15.9/3.5

Nearly forgot :eek::D

EDIT. Dont think it will rain much on Sunday

MiNdGaM3

13.0 ..... 22.8 ..... 0.6 ..... 139 ..... 88 ..... 15.7/7.0

kindredspirit

12.7 ..... 21.0 ..... 1.5 ..... 110 ..... 95 ..... 15.0/6.0

Lumi

12.6 ..... 20.9 ..... -1.3 ..... 109 ..... 93 ..... 15.0/5.7

Deep Easterly

12.9 ..... 22.3 ..... 0.9 ..... 96 ..... 100 ..... 16/5.3

DOCARCH

13.0c ..... 21.3c ..... 1.2c ..... 108% ..... 97% ..... 16.7c/6.4mm

traecy1

12.8.....22.4.....1.3.....105.....110.....16.8/6.2

waterways

12.5 ..... 19.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 128 ..... 93 ..... 16.3/5

Sponge Bob

12.1c ..... 21.1c ..... -0.2c..... 107 ..... 89 ..... 15.2/1.8

nilhg

12.9c ..... 22.1c ..... -1.2c..... 91 ..... 109 ..... 15.7/4.8

M.T. Cranium

September forecasts received by 0300h 3rd
_______________________________________________

Forecaster ......... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Dub-4th
________________________________________________________________

octo .................. 13.5 ..... 24.0 ..... 1.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 17.0/5.0
H2UMrsRobinson .. 13.3 ..... 21.6 ...... 4.5 ..... 101 ..... 102 ..... 19.6/1.1
redsunset ........... 13.2 ..... 21.5 ...... 0.5 ..... 120 ..... 095 ..... 17.0/12.0
Jerry Seinfeld ...... 13.1 ..... 21.0 ...... 1.0 ..... 125 ..... 090 ..... 16.0/4.0
DOCARCH ........... 13.0 ..... 21.3 ...... 1.2 ..... 108 ..... 097 ..... 16.7/6.4
MiNdGaM3 .......... 13.0 ..... 22.8 ...... 0.6 ..... 139 ..... 088 ..... 15.7/7.0
thetonynator ...... 13.0 ..... 21.0 ...... 1.8 ..... 085 ..... 120 ..... 16.0/1.2
Joe Public .......... 12.9 ..... 24.9 ..... -0.9 ..... 089 ..... 129 ..... 16.9/3.9
Deep Easterly ..... 12.9 ..... 22.3 ...... 0.9 ..... 096 ..... 100 ..... 16.0/5.3
nilhg ................. 12.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.2 ..... 091 ..... 109 ..... 15.7/4.8
M.T. Cranium ...... 12.9 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.6 ..... 135 ..... 077 ..... 15.4/12.5
traecy1 ............. 12.8 ..... 22.4 ...... 1.3 ..... 105 ..... 110 ..... 16.8/6.2
okla .................. 12.8 ..... 20.3 ...... 2.2 ..... 090 ..... 088 ..... 17.5/0.0
rameire ............. 12.8 ..... 21.4 ...... 1.2 ..... 110 ..... 089 ..... 14.0/14.0
Harps ............... 12.8 ..... 21.8 ..... -0.4 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 17.6/12.0
dasa29 ............. 12.8 ..... 22.0 ..... -0.5 ..... 095 ..... 095 ..... 18.0/2.0
Su Campu ......... 12.8 ..... 23.7 ...... 1.2 ..... 100 ..... 110 ..... 15.5/4.5
kindredspirit ....... 12.7 ..... 21.0 ...... 1.5 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 15.0/6.0
mickger844posts . 12.7 ..... 20.6 ...... 0.5 ..... 116 ..... 088 ..... 15.4/15.0
4Sheets ............ 12.7 ..... 21.0 ..... -2.0 ..... 125 ..... 083 ..... 14.5/8.5
nacho libre ........ 12.6 ..... 18.2 ..... -2.1 ..... 130 ..... 085 ..... 15.3/10.0
Fionagus ........... 12.6 ..... 20.9 ..... -1.3 ..... 109 ..... 093 ..... 15.0/5.7
Strasser ............ 12.6 ..... 20.4 ...... 1.2 ..... 095 ..... 090 ..... 15.0/10.0

Con Sensus ........ 12.6 ..... 21.0 ..... -0.5 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 15.8/5.8

fizzycyst ........... 12.6 ..... 18.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 095 ..... 092 ..... 15.7/12.3
homolumo .......... 12.6 ..... 18.2 ..... -1.7 ..... 101 ..... 086 ..... 15.7/0.0
Rickylovesuall ..... 12.6 ..... 20.1 ...... 2.0 ..... 097 ..... 102 ..... 18.1/0.0
hellboy99 .......... 12.6 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 121 ..... 090 ..... 15.2/11.0
Tae laidir ........... 12.5 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.6 ..... 132 ..... 088 ..... 13.6/6.6
waterways ........ 12.5 ..... 19.7 ..... -1.0 ..... 128 ..... 093 ..... 16.3/5.0
200motels ......... 12.4 ..... 20.5 ...... 0.5 ..... 149 ..... 082 ..... 18.6/9.0
John mac .......... 12.4 ..... 21.7 ...... 2.4 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... 15.9/3.5
snowstreams ..... 12.4 ..... 20.4 ..... -0.5 ..... 105 ..... 095 ..... 15.8/6.0
ch750536* ........ 12.4 ..... 18.8 ..... -2.0 ..... 112 ..... 100 ..... 15.0/15.0
Iancar29 ........... 12.2 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.0 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 12.3/10.0
jd* .................. 12.2 ..... 20.1 ..... -1.8 ..... 128 ..... 091 ..... 15.2/10.5
Sponge Bob ....... 12.1 ..... 21.1 ..... -0.2 ..... 107 ..... 089 ..... 15.2/1.8
dacogawa ......... 12.1 ..... 23.2 ..... -0.5 ..... 122 ..... 089 ..... 17.1/9.0
talkabout .......... 12.0 ..... 18.5 ..... -0.5 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 16.2/1.2
NIALL_D ........... 12.0 ..... 19.0 ...... 1.0 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 17.0/0.0
cherryghost ...... 12.0 ..... 21.0 ..... -1.0 ..... 130 ..... 085 ..... 15.5/4.0
pauldry ............ 11.9 ..... 20.2 ...... 0.2 ..... 125 ..... 092 ..... 17.4/5.0
jambofc ........... 11.9 ..... 19.1 ..... -0.8 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 16.5/5.0
The Inquisitor .... 11.6 ..... 18.4 ..... -2.0 ..... 127 ..... 084 ..... 15.3/0.0
SeaFields .......... 11.3 ..... 17.5 ...... 0.0 ..... 100 ..... 090 ..... 12.5/0.0
demakinz .......... 11.2 ..... 18.7 ..... -3.0 ..... 090 ..... 060 ..... 11.0/11.0

Con Sensus will be added with any late entries. See post #1 of this thread for the late penalty to be applied to the bonus which is early in the month
(4th).

ch750536

Oops

IMT 12.4
MAX 18.8
MIN -2
PRC 112
SUN 100
B 15/15mm

jd

. 12.2 ..... 20.1 ..... -1.8 ..... 128 ..... 91....15.2/10.5

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, editing these two "late" entries in (at 0300 3rd). See the table a few posts back.

Danno

13.1.....22.7.....2.4.....80.....6.1mm

Apologies for the late entry, somehow I thought today was 2nd Sept.

M.T. Cranium

For the bonus question, the max temp was 15.4 C and the rainfall 5.0 mms.

Several people got one of these "spot on" but taking total error at multiples of 0.1 C plus 0.2 mm as equal in scale, I think (will check this more extensively when scoring) the smallest errors in total are these four:

Su Campu (3.5 pts)

nilhg (4 pts)

cherryghost (5.5 pts)

fionagus (7.5 pts)

and various others were just about as close in this score that considers both elements.

Con Sensus also scored higher than most with 12 error points.

In fact our consensus forecast was probably better than the average of global models at 96 hours (not to mention 144 hours when some forecasts were submitted) so well done everyone.

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On an unrelated subject, does anyone know where station "1775" is located and why it has the name 1775? I just noticed it had started up on the met.ie site. Thanks.

Fionagus answered this in another thread -- apparently it is a duplicate of Johnstown Castle and the number is some code for the station.

---

Note for Danno's late late entry due to incomplete forecast the stated bonus penalty voids the partial forecast and the missing element in the forecast was precip (140%), I confirmed the above by PM. Bear in mind that the late late penalty in general is 10% of points above 50. I don't think this late forecast would affect Con Sensus as most of the median values were in clusters of similar forecasts anyway (which means one more will not move the median out of the cluster). Speaking of clusters ... just for future reference the highest temperature so far, I believe, is 20.3 on the first at Casement. Don't think that will hold. There hasn't been a low under 3 that I've noticed.