The Official Off Topic Thread

jimjamcos wrote:

Well lads, not sure if many of you follow the GAA championship but I had a good bet on the below yesterday.

jimjamcos wrote:

Brian Fenton (Dublin) to be named Footballer of the Year @ 33/1 with Paddy Power

jimjamcos wrote:

Firstly, Dublin will win the All Ireland (Mayo and Tyrone only conceivable challengers) and its 99.9% likely that POTY will come from the winning team.

jimjamcos wrote:

Dublin players ahead of Fenton in market include Ciaran Kilkenny (9/1 fav), James McCarthy & Diarmuid Connelly (both around 14/1) and Bernard Brogan (20/1).

jimjamcos wrote:

While Brogan won POTY the first time this team won the All Ireland, a midfielder (MD McCaughley) and half-back (Jack McCaffrey) have won it on the last two successful. The reason why I feel its much more likely for a defender or midfielder to win it for Dublin is the fact that Dublins array of attacking options means they don't overly rely on any particular forward (although Brogan is key) and regularly substitute even their most high profile names. They have developed their game to a high pressing type with runners through the middle their main weapon. This is where I think Fenton will shine.

jimjamcos wrote:

He won an all-star in his very first year on the team last season, ousting a previously mentioned POTY, he plays almost every minute of every game (unlike most of the forwards) and is only coming into his prime at 23/24. He's sure to get loads of space in a ultra dominant team this summer, and looks very likely to become increasingly dominant in terms of scoring. He also has a good media profile which helps with end of year awards.

jimjamcos wrote:

I see now he's gone into 22/1 with Paddy Power but given he's 16's with Ladbrokes I think 28/1 with Boyles still looks value in what's likely to be a 5/6 horse race.

10/3 favourite now with only final left. :-D

Hope some of you followed.

Jayden Powerful Accident wrote:

But suppose Mayo win on the 18th, and/or you're looking for an insurance bet, C O'Connor at 20/1 mightn't be a bad idea. Draws at 10/1 (higher live), are also not wildly uncommon in these penultimate games.

Nah, can't have Mayo winning whatsoever. Cillian o'Connor has been average at best too bar the Tyrone game so 20/1 is shocking value for him.

If you think Mayo will win then Aidan O Shea at 15/2 is your only bet but Dublin are on a different level imo.

naughto wrote:

Ya didn't see the Tyrone game at all I take it then

Tyrone hadn't one single scoring forward (33yo old Sean Cavanagh being sent off) and still nearly beat Mayo.

Dublin -3 @ evens is one of the best bets you'll see this year.

TMYPOTMYGB

razorhead wrote:

Jim, I got €95 on @ 22/1 after you highlighted this in May, 3's now with PP, fingers crossed, thanks....

Mon the after timing

Hulk Hands wrote:

Cant agree really. I certainly think they'll win and Mayo aren't great. However the Dubs havent beaten a handicap all year I dont think. Theyve never hammered a real top team in championship (the 7 pts vs Kerry in 13 prob closest, but that was a real close one til 70 mins). They tend to consolidate leads in real important games these days and I think if theyre 3 ahead with 10 mins left they'll just close the game out rather than going for more. I dont like Mayo but would take them if I got +4. Hope the Dubs wipe them betting aside though. Nice bet on Fenton

Hulk Hands wrote:

Cant agree really. I certainly think they'll win and Mayo aren't great. However the Dubs havent beaten a handicap all year I dont think. Theyve never hammered a real top team in championship (the 7 pts vs Kerry in 13 prob closest, but that was a real close one til 70 mins). They tend to consolidate leads in real important games these days and I think if theyre 3 ahead with 10 mins left they'll just close the game out rather than going for more. I dont like Mayo but would take them if I got +4. Hope the Dubs wipe them betting aside though. Nice bet on Fenton

I can see where you're coming from but that's exactly why I think its a good bet. Dublin have been playing within themselves all year bar the Kerry match when only for a 10 minute meltdown from Cluxton (resulted in 6pt swing) they'd have been comfortable winners.

I know Kerry pushed up on those kickouts to force mistakes but you could see in the second half that that level of pressure is very hard to sustain.

Anyway, from what I've seen, Mayo's plan this year is to sit back defensively and go very short from their own kickouts (Keeper Clarke is poor from the tee and kicks mostly to his nearest cornerback) which will be suicide against Dublin forwards who are brilliant at pushing up while Dublins all round exceptional tackling will result in numerous turnovers for them.

Mayo have been playing in patches against average teams all championship while we know Dublin are an exceptional team putting in proven performances for long periods.

BumperD wrote: »

Didn't follow but this would match the epic adebeyor shout a few seasons back

What was the Adebeyor shout?

Emmett Kennedy's "laugh" would put you right off

Depends on the race and track

A 0-65 at Dundalk, fcuk all

A Group 1/ Handicap at a big festival, a decent amount

Fascinating Rock out of the Champion Stakes. Fcuk sake, was lining up a good bet