GE2020

An Ciarraioch · 29-01-2020 7:24pm

WhichCandidate political profiler - just go into Kerry:

http://www.whichcandidate.ie

30-01-2020 10:49am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

TBF, read her profile in Monday's Examiner - seems a fairly grounded and decent candidate. Wasn't there a guy in Killarney called Joe O'Shea who was going to start a Kerry branch, but nothing more heard about him afterwards?

Have heard his name alright. But wouldn't know him.

She's a very capable candidate, articulate, intelligent. Very liberal, she's strongly pro choice (unlike the 3 TDs last elected in CSW) and it was the Repeal Referendum that got her engaged in politics. She's been at the forefront of a number of issues in the West of the constituency, Skib market, the campaign against the plastics factory there, the Bantry Bay harvesting battle etc. Since her election she's pushed transparency, to the point of rows with the County Manager about circulating Council meeting business or demanding information days ahead of meetings so Councillors can make informed decisions etc. I can't pretend to agree with all she says and does, she's a liberal, feminist, environmentalist, she might be too honest for politics (you will never see her at a funeral, a GAA game or a Church gate for votes, she sees all that charade as being fundamentally dishonest). She's about as removed from the Healy Raes as one could get.

oeb · 31-01-2020 8:13am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

TBF, read her profile in Monday's Examiner - seems a fairly grounded and decent candidate. Wasn't there a guy in Killarney called Joe O'Shea who was going to start a Kerry branch, but nothing more heard about him afterwards?

John O'Shea, he pulled out in April last year as he decided to go off and do a Phd and would not have enough time to focus on politics.

hurler32 · 02-02-2020 10:30am

FG were hoping to win 2 seats in Kerry, is there a danger they might win none according to a local poll?
2 Healy Raes, 1 SF and 2 FF could be the outcome.

uchimata83 · 02-02-2020 10:43am

hurler32 wrote: »

FG were hoping to win 2 seats in Kerry, is there a danger they might win none according to a local poll?
2 Healy Raes, 1 SF and 2 FF could be the outcome.

More likely that FF's seat goes from Brassil to Foley. Griffin will still get a lot of transfers from Kennelly from the historic FG vote, it should be enough to see him in.

I don't believe this massive SF jump in the polls, nationally I think they are still behind FG by 3/4 points.

Huge movement from the bookies, particularly in favour of Normal Foley.

Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/50 now 1/25
Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/20 now 1/25
Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/6 now 1/5
John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 1/5 now 2/9
Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 8/11 now 3/10
Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 5/4 now 2/9
Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael) 2/1 now 7/1
Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 7/1 now 8/1
Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 14/1 now 20/1
Sonny Foran (Aontu) 33/1 no change
Brian Finucane (PBP) 100/1 no change
Ted Cronan 25/1
John Bowler 66/1

hurler32 · 02-02-2020 10:50am

uchimata83 wrote: »

More likely that FF's seat goes from Brassil to Foley. Griffin will still get a lot of transfers from Kennelly from the historic FG vote, it should be enough to see him in.

I don't believe this massive SF jump in the polls, nationally I think they are still behind FG by 3/4 points.

Huge movement from the bookies, particularly in favour of Normal Foley.

Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/50 now 1/25
Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/20 now 1/25
Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/6 now 1/5
John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 1/5 now 2/9
Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 8/11 now 3/10
Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 5/4 now 2/9
Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael) 2/1 now 7/1
Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 7/1 now 8/1
Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 14/1 now 20/1
Sonny Foran (Aontu) 33/1 no change
Brian Finucane (PBP) 100/1 no change
Ted Cronan 25/1
John Bowler 66/1

Looking at those odds, the 2 healy raes are home and hosed but theres 3 out of the other 4 and Fine Gael havent done much for Kerry bar a few sports grants. The tide nationally is really against them and they are becoming more and more a Dublin party or the party of the rich. Wanting to have a march for the Black and tans wouldnt go down well either in Kerry of all places.
Still theres probably enough rich voters in Killarney and Dairy farmers out there to get one Fine Gael seat.

Panda Killa · 02-02-2020 12:05pm

It's looking like it will be
Michael Healy Rae
Danny Healy Rae
Brendan Griffin
Norma Foley
Then you have John Brassil and Pa Daly fighting for the last seat... Brassil might just hold on, but it's going to be close

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2020 5:15pm

hurler32 wrote: »

Looking at those odds, the 2 healy raes are home and hosed but theres 3 out of the other 4 and Fine Gael havent done much for Kerry bar a few sports grants. The tide nationally is really against them and they are becoming more and more a Dublin party or the party of the rich. Wanting to have a march for the Black and tans wouldnt go down well either in Kerry of all places.
Still theres probably enough rich voters in Killarney and Dairy farmers out there to get one Fine Gael seat.

Griffin cleans up in Corca Dhuibhne, and has enough of a base in Mid Kerry to guarantee a safe seat.

uchimata83 · 02-02-2020 6:54pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Griffin cleans up in Corca Dhuibhne, and has enough of a base in Mid Kerry to guarantee a safe seat.

I don't believe he is as transfer friendly as he was 4 years ago, particularly with the many issues faced by the hospital over the last 4 years. He picked up a huge amount of transfers from Spring and Moriarty last time and I don't expect as many of these to come through in this election. I expect him to get in but if his first round tally is lower than last time he's in for a real dog fight

An Ciarraioch · 04-02-2020 2:01pm

https://twitter.com/NuachtTG4/status/1224676905997230080

You don't need much Irish to figure out Danny may be in trouble.

lottpaul · 04-02-2020 2:40pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

You don't need much Irish to figure out Danny may be in trouble.

They only drop teasers during the day - full result in the Nuacht at 7pm. Bookies still have him odds on to keep his seat - though the last time I checked they had 6 people backed to win..... That might change now. Big interview with them all on Radio Kerry this morning. Nothing too shocking or startling, just a reminder from the Chair of Tralee Chamber of Commerce at the end that no matter who wins, they'd better look after Kerry!
(Danny was asked if he'd serve as Minister of Agriculture -- he didn't say "No")

uchimata83 · 04-02-2020 5:16pm

lottpaul wrote: »

They only drop teasers during the day - full result in the Nuacht at 7pm. Bookies still have him odds on to keep his seat - though the last time I checked they had 6 people backed to win..... That might change now. Big interview with them all on Radio Kerry this morning. Nothing too shocking or startling, just a reminder from the Chair of Tralee Chamber of Commerce at the end that no matter who wins, they'd better look after Kerry!
(Danny was asked if he'd serve as Minister of Agriculture -- he didn't say "No")

I missed it this morning, but will catch up with it this evening. I still think Danny Healy Rae will get enough transfers to get in. From the looks of things, Pa Daly is after making huge gains but I think a lot of this will be down to the opinion polls.

I've watched the other three debates on Radio Kerry with the candidates, Kennelly was brutal, Sonny Foran talked a lot of sense, Bowler is a lunatic, Foley and Cleo Murphy were very impressive.

orangerhyme · 04-02-2020 8:16pm

uchimata83 wrote: »

I missed it this morning, but will catch up with it this evening. I still think Danny Healy Rae will get enough transfers to get in. From the looks of things, Pa Daly is after making huge gains but I think a lot of this will be down to the opinion polls.

I've watched the other three debates on Radio Kerry with the candidates, Kennelly was brutal, Sonny Foran talked a lot of sense, Bowler is a lunatic, Foley and Cleo Murphy were very impressive.

I agree about Kennelly, is him normally like that or just nervous?

An Ciarraioch · 04-02-2020 8:28pm

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1224771690443481090

Would be surprised if Murphy actually is in contention for the final seat, but was planning to give her my first preference anyway.

uchimata83 · 04-02-2020 11:08pm

orangerhyme wrote: »

I agree about Kennelly, is him normally like that or just nervous?

I don't really know to be honest, but he struggled to articulate anything relevant to the questions put to him.

I suspect that poll above was was taken in urban areas. I would be very surprised if the green party got a seat here, but it looks like I was completely wrong writing Pa Daly off initially. It looks as though it's going to be an absolute dog fight.

Quackster · 05-02-2020 12:28am

uchimata83 wrote: »

I don't really know to be honest, but he struggled to articulate anything relevant to the questions put to him.

I suspect that poll above was was taken in urban areas. I would be very surprised if the green party got a seat here, but it looks like I was completely wrong writing Pa Daly off initially. It looks as though it's going to be an absolute dog fight.

I was tele-polled by Ipsos MRBI on Saturday, presumably for this poll. Asked if I was registered to vote in Kerry and to state my first & second preferences.

Panda Killa · 05-02-2020 8:18am

I wouldn't read a huge amount into this poll...
Sinn Féin traditionally poll well, doesn't always transfer to the ballot boxes,
Danny HR was about 4% in the polls before the last election and came home safely enough.
It's an indicator, but nothing more...

oeb · 05-02-2020 12:24pm

Panda Killa wrote: »

Danny HR was about 4% in the polls before the last election and came home safely enough..

Polled at 4% in the same poll 4 years ago, 12.6% of first preference on the day, and then picked up a load of transfers from MHR and easily passed quota on second count.

Here is the breakdown from the 2016 TG4 Poll

Michael Healy-Rae (Non Party) 33%
Jimmy Deenihan (FG) 13%
Brendan Griffin (FG) 13%
John Brassill (FF) 11%
Arthur Spring (Lab) 8%
Martin Ferris (SF) 7%
Norma Moriarty (FF) 6%
Danny Healy-Rae (Non Party) 4%
Michael Fitzgerald (Green) 2%
Grace O’Donnell (FG) 1%
Michael O’Gorman (Non Party) 1%
Donal Corcoran (RN) 1%

Interestingly, Daly is polling more than twice as well as Ferris (Who got the 4th seat on the 11th count, got 11.9% FP on the day). Griffin is polling slightly better than he was 4 years ago (Passed quota on 11th count, 12.2% on the day)

Edited to add Current PP Odds for reference

Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/18
Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 1/14
Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/10
Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 1/3
John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 2/5
Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 4/6
Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 5/2

Degag · 05-02-2020 8:08pm

Would be pretty surprised if Danny failed to get a seat.

orangerhyme · 05-02-2020 9:02pm

uchimata83 wrote: »

I don't really know to be honest, but he struggled to articulate anything relevant to the questions put to him.

I suspect that poll above was was taken in urban areas. I would be very surprised if the green party got a seat here, but it looks like I was completely wrong writing Pa Daly off initially. It looks as though it's going to be an absolute dog fight.

He's shockingly inarticulate, each sentence is a jumbled mess of buzzwords. He's been a councillor for 10 years so you'd expect more. I'm surprised FG couldn't find a better candidate. They seem to be gambling on the Kennelly name and that North Kerry already had a FG TD.
DHR is far more articulate, which is saying something.

Based on the debates Griffin, Brassil, MHR and Daly are pretty sharp. The two FF Normas also were good. Also Cleo Murphy was good but I don't think a Green Party will get elected this time.
I think maybe a green party candidate with a higher profile could do well, maybe an ex gaa player with a track record in business and community work.

DHR is very entertaining at least. I'm surprised his daughter Maura didn't run since Danny's retirement age already.

BPKS · 07-02-2020 10:50am

orangerhyme wrote: »

He's shockingly inarticulate, each sentence is a jumbled mess of buzzwords. He's been a councillor for 10 years so you'd expect more. I'm surprised FG couldn't find a better candidate. They seem to be gambling on the Kennelly name and that North Kerry already had a FG TD.
DHR is far more articulate, which is saying something.

Based on the debates Griffin, Brassil, MHR and Daly are pretty sharp. The two FF Normas also were good. Also Cleo Murphy was good but I don't think a Green Party will get elected this time.
I think maybe a green party candidate with a higher profile could do well, maybe an ex gaa player with a track record in business and community work.

DHR is very entertaining at least. I'm surprised his daughter Maura didn't run since Danny's retirement age already.

FG wanted Aoife Thornton to run in the GE but she couldn't commit to it due to family and work reasons.

Interesting the TG4 poll quoted above from 2016 also had DHR at 4%. Heard no mention of that on Radio Kerry the other morning.

oeb · 07-02-2020 11:40am

BPKS wrote: »

Interesting the TG4 poll quoted above from 2016 also had DHR at 4%. Heard no mention of that on Radio Kerry the other morning.

I think the explanation at the time was that Danny was kind of a last minute add to the ticket, which is why he was polling so low in 2016. It's been said to me by someone this week, that apparently the only reason he is polling so bad this time is "The poll was only done with people in West Kerry, where they are putting Micheal #1" :rolleyes:

BPKS · 07-02-2020 1:18pm

oeb wrote: »

I think the explanation at the time was that Danny was kind of a last minute add to the ticket, which is why he was polling so low in 2016. It's been said to me by someone this week, that apparently the only reason he is polling so bad this time is "The poll was only done with people in West Kerry, where they are putting Micheal #1" :rolleyes:

Or maybe the poll was taken as mass time when all his supporters were out of the house

Radio5 · 07-02-2020 4:35pm

Can't see there being any major change, maybe Norma Foley might unseat Brassil, but that's about it. Pa Daly should do enough to get in.

uchimata83 · 08-02-2020 9:44am

Hopefully the weather won't impact the turn out too much. With circa 8k votes from spring previously, I still think it's wide open, but my guess in order are:
MHR
Norma Foley
Pa Daly
DHR
Brendan Griffin
Whatever party is in government, we've a good chance of a minister position from one of the candidates with the county

An Ciarraioch · 08-02-2020 10:13am

I've no political loyalties personally, but I'd even be happy with 2 FF if it meant DHR lost out.

Quackster · 08-02-2020 12:03pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I've no political loyalties personally, but I'd even be happy with 2 FF if it meant DHR lost out.

Likewise. As for the floating Spring vote, particularly in/around Tralee, I can only speak for myself. I have a strong dislike for SF and wouldn't touch Ferris with a bargepole but it will be Murphy/Daly #1/#2 for me this time, with the lack of a centre-left alternative.

#3 for Foley, dispite my abhorrence for her late daddy, as she seems an able politician and would be a strong voice for the town.

Then somehow work my way down the rest of the list, leaving the two HR boxes blank!

Quackster · 08-02-2020 12:06pm

uchimata83 wrote: »

Hopefully the weather won't impact the turn out too much. With circa 8k votes from spring previously, I still think it's wide open, but my guess in order are:
MHR
Norma Foley
Pa Daly
DHR
Brendan Griffin
Whatever party is in government, we've a good chance of a minister position from one of the candidates with the county

Nah, I think Pa Daly will top the poll. Then MHR, Griffin and Foley. Last seat impossible to call but it will be between Brassil, Murphy and DHR.

lottpaul · 08-02-2020 12:46pm

Went out to vote around 10 - very few in the local polling station and with the weather due to get a lot worse I'd imagine many elderly voters might stay at home, as well as the undecided/mildly interested etc. Impossible to say how such things might affect the final outcome but it's bound to influence it to some degree. Still think MHR and Daly will get in quickly enough, followed by Griffin and one FF - perhaps Foley. Last seat difficult to call.

Met a neighbour yesterday who said she had rounded on all canvassers from the main parties because they had introduced abortion to Ireland and would vote for the Healy Raes as a result rather than Aontú etc. Hadn't factored such an issue into the voting but I'm sure she's not the only person who might have changed her allegiance because of it - and in a tight contest every vote matters.
Radio Kerry will be good for the tallies from 9 tomorrow!

Panda Killa · 08-02-2020 12:49pm

Quackster wrote: »

Nah, I think Pa Daly will top the poll. Then MHR, Griffin and Foley. Last seat impossible to call but it will be between Brassil, Murphy and DHR.

There's not a chance that Daly tops the poll... Facebook famous doesn't always transfer to votes... he'll get in, but I suspect a dogfight with Brassil

GE2020

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