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GE2020

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The following are the names contesting so far:
    • Deputy Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael),
    • Cllr. Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael),
    • Deputy John Brassil (Fianna Fáil),
    • Cllr. Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fáil),
    • Cllr. Norma Foley (Fianna Fáil),
    • Cllr. Pa Daly (Sinn Féin),
    • Brian Finucane (People Before Profit),
    • Cleo Murphy (Green Party),
    • Sonny Foran (Aontú),
    • Deputy Michael Healy-Rae (Independent),
    • Deputy Danny Healy-Rae (Independent)

    So which 5 do you think will be elected and how many quotas will the Healy-Rae's get between them?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    No idea.
    First time voting In. Kerry. Whose worth voting for.
    The HR's are out. Robbing the tax payer and claiming attendance for a funeral ruined it for me.

    Who else isn't so blatantly dishonest?


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Regional South Moderators Posts: 9,397 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ciarrai76


    The 2020 Healy-Rae map - Danny getting slightly more territory than in 2016, through turning Kilgarvan into a joint area!

    https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1217894722078834688

    Moved this post into this GE2020 thread. Please post all election chat here. And note to all, please Keep it civil Thanks! Mod


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,384 ✭✭✭Panda Killa


    The Healy Rae's are safe....love them, or loathe them... they listen to their constituents...get potholes fixed, try to get council houses for people on the waiting list for a long time , and provide buses to the north for cataract ops that will take 2-3 years for the HSE to provide ...the amount of goodwill that alone provides is insane

    Sinn Fein could be in trouble... Martin Ferris not running...his daughter not running .. there's more to this story than were being told I believe.. Pa Daly is a good guy, I like him... he'll get the hardcore nationalist vote... but may lose the "floating voter" a little.

    John Brassil could be in trouble...a lot of his supporters are annoyed that he's not fixing local roads and looking after local issues...he's being berated for not doing the things we berate the Healy Rae's for doing!
    Still looking at Tralee, I think Norma Foley has a massive chance of being elected...she's been to the forefront of lots of local issues and has a bit of support building...I'd expect her to take Brassils seat...

    .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    The Healy Rae's are safe....love them, or loathe them... they listen to their constituents...get potholes fixed, try to get council houses for people on the waiting list for a long time , and provide buses to the north for cataract ops that will take 2-3 years for the HSE to provide ...the amount of goodwill that alone provides is insane

    Sinn Fein could be in trouble... Martin Ferris not running...his daughter not running .. there's more to this story than were being told I believe.. Pa Daly is a good guy, I like him... he'll get the hardcore nationalist vote... but may lose the "floating voter" a little.

    John Brassil could be in trouble...a lot of his supporters are annoyed that he's not fixing local roads and looking after local issues...he's being berated for not doing the things we berate the Healy Rae's for doing!
    Still looking at Tralee, I think Norma Foley has a massive chance of being elected...she's been to the forefront of lots of local issues and has a bit of support building...I'd expect her to take Brassils seat...

    .

    Agree with all this. Pa Daly has done some great work on the council but I get the distinct feeling that he is only in this race as he is the only half way candidate SF have. I think Brendan Griffin and MHR are the only ones who are definitely safe. DHR will get probably get enough transfers to go through.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    Just had my first caller from FF. New to the county so know no one.

    Asked him why I'd vote FF and he couldn't tell me.
    Told him I'd lost all hope of fg who I've voted for the last 30 years.
    Am old enough to remember what FF did to the country and when he told me it would be a FF/Greens coalition...well I lost all hope.
    Not to mention propping up FG the last 8 years.

    Anyway he went away without giving any answers.

    Looks like I'm not voting for Foley!

    No idea who to vote for this year but always have done with the belief we get the government we deserve and can't complain if we don't vote.

    Anyway, must be careful not to upset the neighbours :)

    Edited to fix typo..though I did have to apply for residency of the kingdom and get a visa :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Just had my first caller from FF. New to the country so know no one.

    Asked him why I'd vote FF and he couldn't tell me.
    Told him I'd lost all hope of fg who I've voted for the last 30 years.
    Am old enough to remember what FF did to the country and when he told me it would be a FF/Greens coalition...well I lost all hope.
    Not to mention propping up FG the last 8 years.

    Anyway he went away without giving any answers.

    Looks like I'm not voting for Foley!

    No idea who to vote for this year but always have done with the belief we get the government we deserve and can't complain if we don't vote.

    Anyway, must be careful not to upset the neighbours :)

    If you've voted for FG for 30 years, presumably you've just moved to Kerry, rather than Ireland? Welcome, either way!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    If you've voted for FG for 30 years, presumably you've just moved to Kerry, rather than Ireland? Welcome, either way! As for voting advice, I'd worry less about electability than whoever is closest to your own political opinions.

    Unfortunately you can't separate the individual from the party due to the whip system.
    Looking forward to MHR calling to my door. I want to know about his powers of bi-location ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,629 ✭✭✭Adiboo


    Unfortunately you can't separate the individual from the party due to the whip system.
    Looking forward to MHR calling to my door. I want to know about his powers of bi-location ;)

    Ask him about his ridiculous raffle too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83




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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    For what it's worth, below are the odds from Paddy power
    Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/50
    Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/20
    Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/6
    John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 1/5
    Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 8/11
    Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 5/4
    Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael) 2/1
    Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 7/1
    Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 14/1
    Sonny Foran (Aontu) 33/1
    Brian Finucane (PBP) 100/1



    I assume that Mike Kennelly has been added to the ticket to try to get some North Kerry votes from FF and pick up the historic FG voters for Deenihan.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    uchimata83 wrote: »
    For what it's worth, below are the odds from Paddy power
    Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/50
    Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/20
    Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/6
    John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 1/5
    Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 8/11
    Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 5/4
    Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael) 2/1
    Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 7/1
    Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 14/1
    Sonny Foran (Aontu) 33/1
    Brian Finucane (PBP) 100/1



    I assume that Mike Kennelly has been added to the ticket to try to get some North Kerry votes from FF and pick up the historic FG voters for Deenihan.

    Indeed - the FG ticket seems better balanced than FF's, geographically speaking - hard to see how the latter gain from having two North Kerry candidates.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Just had my first caller from FF. New to the county so know no one.

    Asked him why I'd vote FF and he couldn't tell me.
    Told him I'd lost all hope of fg who I've voted for the last 30 years.

    He could not point to the crises in health, crime and housing, in a week when a child was dismembered in the gangland war, an elderly woman photographed eating her dinner off a window sill and a homeless man hospitalised when being dumped like trash, and say FF is the only realistic alternative when it comes to leading a Government?

    I appreciate that, as a former long term FG voter, you may validly object to pinning all these on that party, the reasons are far more complex and historic.

    I'm just saying...he must have been an awful canvasser.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    He could not point to the crises in health, crime and housing, in a week when a child was dismembered in the gangland war, an elderly woman photographed eating her dinner off a window sill and a homeless man hospitalised when being dumped like trash, and say FF is the only realistic alternative when it comes to leading a Government?

    I appreciate that, as a former long term FG voter, you may validly object to pinning all these on that party, the reasons are far more complex and historic.

    I'm just saying...he must have been an awful canvasser.

    Unfortunately we can't blame it all health's problems on FG.
    FF were in government longer. Talking to colleagues in the dept of health whove been there decades, they were all useless. Martin, Harney,( she at least tried) and of course Mr soundbite himself Leo.
    Harris works hard but is in over his head. It's too big a job for 1 man. I often met him in the lift. He has the weight of the world on his shoulders. He's dealing with the failure of every government before him to sort out health. It would take the dedicated resources of a team of ministers and a willingness to overlook the results of the next election to deal with the problems whatever the next poll.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,408 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    He could not point to the crises in health, crime and housing, in a week when a child was dismembered in the gangland war, an elderly woman photographed eating her dinner off a window sill and a homeless man hospitalised when being dumped like trash, and say FF is the only realistic alternative when it comes to leading a Government?

    I appreciate that, as a former long term FG voter, you may validly object to pinning all these on that party, the reasons are far more complex and historic.

    I'm just saying...he must have been an awful canvasser.

    Most accurate line in any election thread I have read so far on this site.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Unfortunately we can't blame it all health's problems on FG..

    Oh fully agree. I think you could double the money thrown at the HSE and you'd still get many of the same issues, waiting lists, overcrowded AnEs etc. Judging by the problems in the NHS, I think one has to accept that maybe health systems inevitably come with systemic issues. Either way, it's come to the stage where taking on the role as Minister will break the most capable politician, Brian Cowen's comment that it was the Angola of government departments was one apt observation.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    That's nonsense re Simon Harris. The guy wouldn't know an honest day's work if it came up and bit him on the backside. If you're in any doubt head over to the farcically name uhk and spend a few hours in a&e.

    The 8th amendment referendum had 75% approval before it was ever even decided to be put before the people.

    This crack of blaming everything on your predecessors doesn't fly when you've been in government for 8 years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    uchimata83 wrote: »
    That's nonsense re Simon Harris. The guy wouldn't know an honest day's work if it came up and bit him on the backside. If you're in any doubt head over to the farcically name uhk and spend a few hours in a&e.

    The 8th amendment referendum had 75% approval before it was ever even decided to be put before the people.

    This crack of blaming everything on your predecessors doesn't fly when you've been in government for 8 years.
    I take it you've worked in the DoH since you know what he does every day!


    By comparison, the Slovak health system works well with everyone over 18 paying insurance which is managed by private companies. The money follows the patient and the system works.
    Under 18 are free.My youngest had 4 opportunities of heart surgery while waiting on the list in Crumlin. We eventually took an appointment and got a call from Crumlin 12 months after he had been done.

    Of course it was attempted to bring it in here with universal insurance and the people/doctors etc didn't want it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    I take it you've worked in the DoH since you know what he does every day!

    No but I wasn't hanging around the seanad since I was 20 either. Nor am I building the most expensive hospital on the face of the Earth. He's going to be the first health minister to buy one hospital for the price of two and that capital investment directly impacts the the provision of new services locally.

    By all accounts the economy has never been better, and the health service has never been worse


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    It looks as though the newest opinion poll seems to be a little more accurate (in my opinion, of course). FF up to 32% and FG down to 20% - although these seem too high and low respectively. FG will lose a massive amount of the farmers vote after the last three months and its difficult to see any of them voting for the greens.


    I like to keep an eye on the odds as the bookies tend to be right most of the time, and it looks like Norma Foley is going to pick up that fifth seat at the expense of Sinn Fein.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    I see an American called John Bowler is standing as the Irexit candidate in Kerry - his Twitter a/c is "colourful" to say the least!

    https://twitter.com/beachbuminkerry/status/1218594886162751488


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    I see an American called John Bowler is standing as the Irexit candidate in Kerry - his Twitter a/c is "colourful" to say the least!

    https://twitter.com/beachbuminkerry/status/1218594886162751488

    He's wearing a flat cap. He'll be mixed up with the other eejits wearing flat caps and win the seat :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 702 ✭✭✭JonathonS


    uchimata83 wrote: »
    Nor am I building the most expensive hospital on the face of the Earth

    At least it is being built. FF wasted tens of millions trying to shoehorn it into Bertie's constituency. And at the end of that debacle nothing was achieved, and children were still left untreated. Anyone who thinks that the solution to the problems of the health service lies in voting for Mícheál M is very naive.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    JonathonS wrote: »
    At least it is being built. FF wasted tens of millions trying to shoehorn it into Bertie's constituency. And at the end of that debacle nothing was achieved, and children were still left untreated. Anyone who thinks that the solution to the problems of the health service lies in voting for Mícheál M is very naive.

    At what cost though? You can give anyone a blank cheque book and they'll build you a hospital. If FF are reckless with government money, FG are incompetent. And I would say that FF are as bad, if not worse, to keep that government in power despite the children's hospital, cervical scandal, NBP costs etc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,819 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    What's with the two Normas running for FF?:confused: Is that a traditional girls name down south, like a female equivalent of Jeremiah?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    Is anyone working at the polling stations?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,119 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    I see an American called John Bowler is standing as the Irexit candidate in Kerry - his Twitter a/c is "colourful" to say the least!

    https://twitter.com/beachbuminkerry/status/1218594886162751488

    I hope he does as well in this election as he did in the EU elections. It's ironic that anti-EU parties in general, stress that they don't want their country to be dictated to by foreigners, yet the IFP have a foreigner telling Irish people what's good for them.

    I hope he comes knocking on my door. :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,793 ✭✭✭oeb


    Who is this Sean O’Leary lad who has registered as an independent? Some guy from Cork, apparently a business man. He is also registered in all 5 cork constituencies, and 5 in Dublin too. That's 5500 in registration fees, without apparently a peep from him about policies or anything like that.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Doing a bit of canvassing in West Cork for the Soc Dems.

    So telling people to vote for a candidate and party I can't vote for!!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Doing a bit of canvassing in West Cork for the Soc Dems.

    So telling people to vote for a candidate and party I can't vote for!!

    TBF, read her profile in Monday's Examiner - seems a fairly grounded and decent candidate. Wasn't there a guy in Killarney called Joe O'Shea who was going to start a Kerry branch, but nothing more heard about him afterwards?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    WhichCandidate political profiler - just go into Kerry:

    http://www.whichcandidate.ie


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    TBF, read her profile in Monday's Examiner - seems a fairly grounded and decent candidate. Wasn't there a guy in Killarney called Joe O'Shea who was going to start a Kerry branch, but nothing more heard about him afterwards?

    Have heard his name alright. But wouldn't know him.

    She's a very capable candidate, articulate, intelligent. Very liberal, she's strongly pro choice (unlike the 3 TDs last elected in CSW) and it was the Repeal Referendum that got her engaged in politics. She's been at the forefront of a number of issues in the West of the constituency, Skib market, the campaign against the plastics factory there, the Bantry Bay harvesting battle etc. Since her election she's pushed transparency, to the point of rows with the County Manager about circulating Council meeting business or demanding information days ahead of meetings so Councillors can make informed decisions etc. I can't pretend to agree with all she says and does, she's a liberal, feminist, environmentalist, she might be too honest for politics (you will never see her at a funeral, a GAA game or a Church gate for votes, she sees all that charade as being fundamentally dishonest). She's about as removed from the Healy Raes as one could get.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,793 ✭✭✭oeb


    TBF, read her profile in Monday's Examiner - seems a fairly grounded and decent candidate. Wasn't there a guy in Killarney called Joe O'Shea who was going to start a Kerry branch, but nothing more heard about him afterwards?


    John O'Shea, he pulled out in April last year as he decided to go off and do a Phd and would not have enough time to focus on politics.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 451 ✭✭hurler32


    FG were hoping to win 2 seats in Kerry, is there a danger they might win none according to a local poll?
    2 Healy Raes, 1 SF and 2 FF could be the outcome.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    hurler32 wrote: »
    FG were hoping to win 2 seats in Kerry, is there a danger they might win none according to a local poll?
    2 Healy Raes, 1 SF and 2 FF could be the outcome.


    More likely that FF's seat goes from Brassil to Foley. Griffin will still get a lot of transfers from Kennelly from the historic FG vote, it should be enough to see him in.


    I don't believe this massive SF jump in the polls, nationally I think they are still behind FG by 3/4 points.



    Huge movement from the bookies, particularly in favour of Normal Foley.



    Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/50 now 1/25
    Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/20 now 1/25
    Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/6 now 1/5
    John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 1/5 now 2/9
    Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 8/11 now 3/10
    Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 5/4 now 2/9
    Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael) 2/1 now 7/1
    Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 7/1 now 8/1
    Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 14/1 now 20/1
    Sonny Foran (Aontu) 33/1 no change
    Brian Finucane (PBP) 100/1 no change
    Ted Cronan 25/1
    John Bowler 66/1


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 451 ✭✭hurler32


    uchimata83 wrote: »
    More likely that FF's seat goes from Brassil to Foley. Griffin will still get a lot of transfers from Kennelly from the historic FG vote, it should be enough to see him in.


    I don't believe this massive SF jump in the polls, nationally I think they are still behind FG by 3/4 points.



    Huge movement from the bookies, particularly in favour of Normal Foley.



    Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/50 now 1/25
    Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/20 now 1/25
    Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/6 now 1/5
    John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 1/5 now 2/9
    Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 8/11 now 3/10
    Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 5/4 now 2/9
    Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael) 2/1 now 7/1
    Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 7/1 now 8/1
    Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 14/1 now 20/1
    Sonny Foran (Aontu) 33/1 no change
    Brian Finucane (PBP) 100/1 no change
    Ted Cronan 25/1
    John Bowler 66/1

    Looking at those odds, the 2 healy raes are home and hosed but theres 3 out of the other 4 and Fine Gael havent done much for Kerry bar a few sports grants. The tide nationally is really against them and they are becoming more and more a Dublin party or the party of the rich. Wanting to have a march for the Black and tans wouldnt go down well either in Kerry of all places.
    Still theres probably enough rich voters in Killarney and Dairy farmers out there to get one Fine Gael seat.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,384 ✭✭✭Panda Killa


    It's looking like it will be
    Michael Healy Rae
    Danny Healy Rae
    Brendan Griffin
    Norma Foley
    Then you have John Brassil and Pa Daly fighting for the last seat... Brassil might just hold on, but it's going to be close


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    hurler32 wrote: »
    Looking at those odds, the 2 healy raes are home and hosed but theres 3 out of the other 4 and Fine Gael havent done much for Kerry bar a few sports grants. The tide nationally is really against them and they are becoming more and more a Dublin party or the party of the rich. Wanting to have a march for the Black and tans wouldnt go down well either in Kerry of all places.
    Still theres probably enough rich voters in Killarney and Dairy farmers out there to get one Fine Gael seat.

    Griffin cleans up in Corca Dhuibhne, and has enough of a base in Mid Kerry to guarantee a safe seat.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    Griffin cleans up in Corca Dhuibhne, and has enough of a base in Mid Kerry to guarantee a safe seat.

    I don't believe he is as transfer friendly as he was 4 years ago, particularly with the many issues faced by the hospital over the last 4 years. He picked up a huge amount of transfers from Spring and Moriarty last time and I don't expect as many of these to come through in this election. I expect him to get in but if his first round tally is lower than last time he's in for a real dog fight


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    https://twitter.com/NuachtTG4/status/1224676905997230080

    You don't need much Irish to figure out Danny may be in trouble.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭lottpaul


    You don't need much Irish to figure out Danny may be in trouble.


    They only drop teasers during the day - full result in the Nuacht at 7pm. Bookies still have him odds on to keep his seat - though the last time I checked they had 6 people backed to win..... That might change now. Big interview with them all on Radio Kerry this morning. Nothing too shocking or startling, just a reminder from the Chair of Tralee Chamber of Commerce at the end that no matter who wins, they'd better look after Kerry!
    (Danny was asked if he'd serve as Minister of Agriculture -- he didn't say "No") :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    lottpaul wrote: »
    They only drop teasers during the day - full result in the Nuacht at 7pm. Bookies still have him odds on to keep his seat - though the last time I checked they had 6 people backed to win..... That might change now. Big interview with them all on Radio Kerry this morning. Nothing too shocking or startling, just a reminder from the Chair of Tralee Chamber of Commerce at the end that no matter who wins, they'd better look after Kerry!
    (Danny was asked if he'd serve as Minister of Agriculture -- he didn't say "No") :)

    I missed it this morning, but will catch up with it this evening. I still think Danny Healy Rae will get enough transfers to get in. From the looks of things, Pa Daly is after making huge gains but I think a lot of this will be down to the opinion polls.

    I've watched the other three debates on Radio Kerry with the candidates, Kennelly was brutal, Sonny Foran talked a lot of sense, Bowler is a lunatic, Foley and Cleo Murphy were very impressive.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,924 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    uchimata83 wrote: »
    I missed it this morning, but will catch up with it this evening. I still think Danny Healy Rae will get enough transfers to get in. From the looks of things, Pa Daly is after making huge gains but I think a lot of this will be down to the opinion polls.

    I've watched the other three debates on Radio Kerry with the candidates, Kennelly was brutal, Sonny Foran talked a lot of sense, Bowler is a lunatic, Foley and Cleo Murphy were very impressive.

    I agree about Kennelly, is him normally like that or just nervous?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1224771690443481090

    Would be surprised if Murphy actually is in contention for the final seat, but was planning to give her my first preference anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭uchimata83


    I agree about Kennelly, is him normally like that or just nervous?

    I don't really know to be honest, but he struggled to articulate anything relevant to the questions put to him.

    I suspect that poll above was was taken in urban areas. I would be very surprised if the green party got a seat here, but it looks like I was completely wrong writing Pa Daly off initially. It looks as though it's going to be an absolute dog fight.


  • Moderators, Regional South Moderators Posts: 5,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quackster


    uchimata83 wrote: »
    I don't really know to be honest, but he struggled to articulate anything relevant to the questions put to him.

    I suspect that poll above was was taken in urban areas. I would be very surprised if the green party got a seat here, but it looks like I was completely wrong writing Pa Daly off initially. It looks as though it's going to be an absolute dog fight.

    I was tele-polled by Ipsos MRBI on Saturday, presumably for this poll. Asked if I was registered to vote in Kerry and to state my first & second preferences.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,384 ✭✭✭Panda Killa


    I wouldn't read a huge amount into this poll...
    Sinn Féin traditionally poll well, doesn't always transfer to the ballot boxes,
    Danny HR was about 4% in the polls before the last election and came home safely enough.
    It's an indicator, but nothing more...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,793 ✭✭✭oeb


    Danny HR was about 4% in the polls before the last election and came home safely enough..


    Polled at 4% in the same poll 4 years ago, 12.6% of first preference on the day, and then picked up a load of transfers from MHR and easily passed quota on second count.



    Here is the breakdown from the 2016 TG4 Poll

    Michael Healy-Rae (Non Party) 33%
    Jimmy Deenihan (FG) 13%
    Brendan Griffin (FG) 13%
    John Brassill (FF) 11%
    Arthur Spring (Lab) 8%
    Martin Ferris (SF) 7%
    Norma Moriarty (FF) 6%
    Danny Healy-Rae (Non Party) 4%
    Michael Fitzgerald (Green) 2%
    Grace O’Donnell (FG) 1%
    Michael O’Gorman (Non Party) 1%
    Donal Corcoran (RN) 1%

    Interestingly, Daly is polling more than twice as well as Ferris (Who got the 4th seat on the 11th count, got 11.9% FP on the day). Griffin is polling slightly better than he was 4 years ago (Passed quota on 11th count, 12.2% on the day)

    Edited to add Current PP Odds for reference
    Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/18
    Pa Daly (Sinn Fein) 1/14
    Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/10
    Norma Foley (Fianna Fail) 1/3
    John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 2/5
    Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 4/6
    Cleo Murphy (Green Party) 5/2


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,982 ✭✭✭Degag


    Would be pretty surprised if Danny failed to get a seat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,924 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    uchimata83 wrote: »
    I don't really know to be honest, but he struggled to articulate anything relevant to the questions put to him.

    I suspect that poll above was was taken in urban areas. I would be very surprised if the green party got a seat here, but it looks like I was completely wrong writing Pa Daly off initially. It looks as though it's going to be an absolute dog fight.

    He's shockingly inarticulate, each sentence is a jumbled mess of buzzwords. He's been a councillor for 10 years so you'd expect more. I'm surprised FG couldn't find a better candidate. They seem to be gambling on the Kennelly name and that North Kerry already had a FG TD.
    DHR is far more articulate, which is saying something.

    Based on the debates Griffin, Brassil, MHR and Daly are pretty sharp. The two FF Normas also were good. Also Cleo Murphy was good but I don't think a Green Party will get elected this time.
    I think maybe a green party candidate with a higher profile could do well, maybe an ex gaa player with a track record in business and community work.

    DHR is very entertaining at least. I'm surprised his daughter Maura didn't run since Danny's retirement age already.


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