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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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    #422
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I don't really want snow yet. Lucky its FI charts but the 28th I am on study leave for an exam on the 3rd December.

    I was also on study leave in March with the snow, it was a massive distraction which trying to study.

    Once it's the 4th it can be pure snowmageddon.


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    #423
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    I think we're all waiting for the ECM in an hour or two before commenting on the latest GFS :D


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    #424
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    It's like asking Mum for biscuits, she says no, so you go to Dad instead for a yes answer :D


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    #425
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1063073630249250816

    An exceptional December pattern, swap out 'northeast' for Ireland and the UK in that tweet.

    Exceptional indeed, that's certainly an epic 500mb height anomaly for cold and snow if I ever saw one. Legendary even! Just for fun, of course.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #426
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    cherryghost wrote: »
    It's like asking Mum for biscuits, she says no, so you go to Dad instead for a yes answer :D
    looks like Dad is opening the cookie jar


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    #427
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    kittyn wrote: »
    Where did you shoot that? I know the road but I just can't place it lol


    Firhouse road, across the road from St. Endas GAA club.


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    #428
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,543 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Nice forecast from M. T. this morning,a bit of a tease!!


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    #429
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1063239482193969152?s=21

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #430
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    The Eagle's love of colder weather was obvious on radio this morning. He said “Looks cooler next week but that’s next week, the weekend looks good"

    Got to love his no-nonsense updates, no time for this FI nonsense :D


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    #431
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    After Saturday it will be a long time before its as mild again.


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    #432
    KingJeremy
    Registered Users Posts: 133 ✭✭KingJeremy


    pauldry wrote: »
    After Saturday it will be a long time before its as mild again.

    Bring it on & fingers crossed for a hape of snow at some stage this winter


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    #433
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Paddy Power have a white Christmas at Dublin Airport at 5/1 at present. In light of what has been discussed here is it worth a flutter?


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    #434
    Clonmel1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    KingJeremy wrote: »
    Bring it on & fingers crossed for a hape of snow at some stage this winter

    Yeah that would be brilliant wouldn’t it.


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    #435
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,139 ✭✭✭highdef


    Eyes down due the eagerly anticipated 12z.


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    #436
    Loughc
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,731 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Paddy Power have a white Christmas at Dublin Airport at 5/1 at present. In light of what has been discussed here is it worth a flutter?

    Nope, not worth the odds IMO.


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    #437
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Paddy Power have a white Christmas at Dublin Airport at 5/1 at present. In light of what has been discussed here is it worth a flutter?

    I wouldn't be betting on a white Christmas. I've only ever witnessed 2 white Christmas's in my lifetime. Also the far reaches of FI for what their worth show the upcoming cold spell ending during the first 10 days of December and hinting at a return to the Atlantic after that.


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    #438
    kod87
    Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    Latest GFS makes short work of that easterly and has us in a southerly flow in 10 days.

    Bloody rollercoaster making me nauseous


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    #439
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Paddy Power have a white Christmas at Dublin Airport at 5/1 at present. In light of what has been discussed here is it worth a flutter?

    Not at all.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #440
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    GFS Fi not the best. but in the short term europe going in the fridge, cool/cold for us in an easterly flow. general theme still looks very good. blocking all over the place and vortex under pressure. great model watching


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    #441
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    That 12z

    giphy.gif


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    #442
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    ECM 12z will be very interesting after that GFS run. Talk about rollercoasters!


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    #443
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    I have to say when there’s model disagreement of any form in the run up to a forecasted cold spell/build up to it, it doesn’t bode well in my experience.

    The snowy spell of last Feb/March was remarkable in that model support for a shift to cold weather was solid from about a week out IIRC. Downgrades were expected but they never came (usually if there’s cross model disagreement, a mild solution usually wins out to some extent, even if it’s on its own for a while). As far as I can tell it was similar during the run up Nov/Dec 2010 (although I wasn’t actively following models back then so I’m open to correction on this).

    Call me paranoid but we’ve been here many times before, and it’s early in the season so we may be a tad optimistic after last winter’s spectacular finish.


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    #444
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    esposito wrote: »
    ECM 12z will be very interesting after that GFS run. Talk about rollercoasters!

    At the moment we are just getting out of the car at the theme park. ticket desk next week, then standing next to it for 3 month thinking will I wont I .


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    #445
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Reckless Abandonment wrote: »
    At the moment we are just getting out of the car at the theme park. ticket desk next week, then standing next to it for 3 month thinking will I wont I .

    Then we get in the queue....for ages....get to the top of the queue, and it closes, due to technical problems!


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    #446
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Then we get in the queue....for ages....get to the top of the queue, and it closes, due to technical problems!

    Due to the weather :)


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    #447
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This is why yesterday I was saying that I'm not going to get excited yet.

    This up coming cold spell is nothing like the cold we had last February/March. We are currently several degrees warmer than normal for the time of year and there is going to be a very gradual cooling over the next 5 to 10 days. We are still in Autumn, Winter doesn't begin for anther 2 weeks and there is currently no proper cold anywhere in Europe.

    We need this cold spell to build and build with a high moving over to Greenland so the real cold air can filter from Siberia during the final few days of November and into the start of December. It's not till the end of this month where snow potential is possible, eastern Europe should be much colder by then than it is now.

    The last few days of November is still a long way off, roughly 10 days of cooling down before we get to the good stuff and there is every chance this will upgrade or downgrade several times before the fun even begins. For now all it is, is an interesting Observation.

    If this goes belly up, no huge loss as winter hasn't even started yet.


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    #448
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This is why yesterday I was saying that I'm not going to get excited yet.

    This up coming cold spell is nothing like the cold we had last February/March. We are currently several degrees warmer than normal for the time of year and there is going to be a very gradual cooling over the next 5 to 10 days. We are still in Autumn, Winter doesn't begin for anther 2 weeks and there is currently no proper cold anywhere in Europe.

    We need this cold spell to build and build with a high moving over to Greenland so the real cold air can filter from Siberia during the final few days of November and into the start of December. It's not till the end of this month where snow potential is possible, eastern Europe should be much colder by then than it is now.

    The last few days of November is still a long way off, roughly 10 days of cooling down before we get to the good stuff and there is every chance this will upgrade or downgrade several times before the fun even begins. For now all it is, is an interesting Observation.

    If this goes belly up, no huge loss as winter hasn't even started yet.

    That's 100% common sense Gonzo. Could go either way but the current signals are very encouraging given its only the 16th November. And the best part (as you've rightly pointed out) is that Ireland's meteorological winter doesn't start until the 1st December so AN AWFUL LOT to play for!!

    D


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    #449
    kittyn
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    Does anyone remember the week before the first cold shot in November 2010 it was unseasonably warm too or is my mind playing tricks on me??


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    #450
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    ECM is meh


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    #451
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,225 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Netweather meltdown In 5,4,3...


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