Dublin mid west election 2020

duffman13 · 04-02-2020 7:04pm

unkel wrote: »

Not many people in Google under 100k, typically only young new recruits or part timers

Depends what part of Google your in, I know a few people who work in Google and none of them are anywhere near 100k (non tech, like a good portion of Dublin office)

Dodge · 04-02-2020 8:03pm

Apologies she’s ‘Chief of Staff - Operations’ in PayPal Europe

cherryghost · 05-02-2020 1:17am

In all my years of voting, after tonights debate.... I really dont know who I will be voting for on Saturday.

average_runner · 05-02-2020 9:29am

cherryghost wrote: »

In all my years of voting, after tonights debate.... I really dont know who I will be voting for on Saturday.

Felt Leo was the winner, mainly because the other two were rubbish.
Who ever was doing the interview should be fired as it was terrible

zerosugarbuzz · 05-02-2020 9:33am

average_runner wrote: »

Felt Leo was the winner, mainly because the other two were rubbish.
Who ever was doing the interview should be fired as it was terrible

Do you really not know the names of the two presenters in question?

average_runner · 05-02-2020 10:05am

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Do you really not know the names of the two presenters in question?

I do but just didn't want to waste my time typing their names:D

emo72 · 05-02-2020 7:27pm

canvasser for casserley knocked on the door. rattled off a load of things that she would do, and about a lot of her concerns. never once mentioned housing or homelessness. that speaks volumes.

Capt'n Midnight · 05-02-2020 9:43pm

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

I think both FF and FG are running too many candidates.

SF too.

The trick is to have your running mate be the last person eliminated and use their votes to get you the last seat.

Worst thing that can happen is your running mate does too well and doesn't get eliminated so neither of you get elected as the person between you skips ahead.

Also
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/dublin

After a mostly dry start on Saturday morning, heavy rain and strong and gusty southerly winds will move eastwards over the country bringing a risk of very strong squally winds, with gales along all coasts and strong gale force winds along the northwest coast. Some of the rain turning wintry in parts of Ulster for a very short time. The rain possibly lingering into the evening in parts of Leinster and Munster.

yaboya1 · 05-02-2020 10:06pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

SF too.

The trick is to have your running mate be the last person eliminated and use their votes to get you the last seat.

Worst thing that can happen is your running mate does too well and doesn't get eliminated so neither of you get elected as the person between you skips ahead.

Also
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/dublin

O'Broin is a cert, so maybe SF think there's a good possibility of nabbing the last seat if he's elected early (likely to top poll imo) and Ward gets his transfers.

alias no.9 · 05-02-2020 10:28pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

O'Broin is a cert, so maybe SF think there's a good possibility of nabbing the last seat if he's elected early (likely to top poll imo) and Ward gets his transfers.

If Ward can get ahead of Gino, he could well keep his seat, there's a seat for one of them.

Dodge · 05-02-2020 10:39pm

Ward is technically a sitting TD so they kinda hate to put him on the ballot. O Brion will likely top the poll so even if Ward doesn’t get in, there’s no harm done

Hotblack Desiato · 06-02-2020 2:58am

Got about the third or fourth Curran leaflet of this campaign through the door earlier today. Then about 11pm got another one! Seems a bit desperate. Hope to see him kicked out for good this time

ShyMets · 06-02-2020 9:32am

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Got about the third or fourth Curran leaflet of this campaign through the door earlier today. Then about 11pm got another one! Seems a bit desperate. Hope to see him kicked out for good this time

I think Curran will be alright. He's anti-abortion and fairly vocal about so he'll get some of that vote plus the traditional FF vote. I think Gino Kenny might be in a bit of bother

average_runner · 06-02-2020 10:34am

ShyMets wrote: »

I think Curran will be alright. He's anti-abortion and fairly vocal about so he'll get some of that vote plus the traditional FF vote. I think Gino Kenny might be in a bit of bother

He will lose a lot of voters over that also

L1011 · 06-02-2020 10:35am

alias no.9 wrote: »

If Ward can get ahead of Gino, he could well keep his seat, there's a seat for one of them.

That would be the worst possible outcome for SF. O'Broin is one of the "sensible ones" that attract new/non-traditional votes to the party elsewhere along with Doherty. They're already losing Jonathan O'Brien who was another.

Hotblack Desiato · 06-02-2020 11:25am

Pretty sure alias meant there's a seat for one of Kenny or Ward, not that there's a seat for one of the two SF candidates

I expect O'Broin to top the poll, unless SF make a complete balls of their vote management.

Dodge · 06-02-2020 11:51am

ShyMets wrote: »

I think Curran will be alright. He's anti-abortion and fairly vocal about so he'll get some of that vote plus the traditional FF vote. I think Gino Kenny might be in a bit of bother

The traditional FF vote would probably be along that anti-choice line anyway. He wouldn’t be attracting too many new voters because of it

There is zero chance of O Broin not being elected

ShyMets · 07-02-2020 2:58pm

Neck on the line time. I think it will finish up:

O'Broin
Curran
Ward
Higgins

duffman13 · 08-02-2020 8:50am

The bookies have it

Curran 1/50
O'Brioin 1/14
Ward 3/10
Higgins 4/6
Gogarty 7/4
Gino 7/4

7-1 bar those

An actual interesting count in DMW for a change this time

Nika Bolokov · 08-02-2020 3:37pm

Fairly brisk voting when I was voting this morning with lots of young voters.

Think the bookies have overestimated Currans vote and underestimated the Green vote.

Pherekydes · 08-02-2020 3:46pm

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

Think the bookies have overestimated Currans vote and underestimated the Green vote.

The bookies' odds just reflect the market.

r93kaey5p2izun · 08-02-2020 4:07pm

I had to queue for the first time ever at my polling station this morning.

Nika Bolokov · 08-02-2020 5:09pm

Pherekydes wrote: »

The bookies' odds just reflect the market.

Yeah I note they have pulled constituency betting completly.

Nika Bolokov · 08-02-2020 5:11pm

Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »

I had to queue for the first time ever at my polling station this morning.

Big young vote when I was there. Usually I only see the plus 40s but that could just be when and where I vote

Mongfinder General · 08-02-2020 5:13pm

Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »

I had to queue for the first time ever at my polling station this morning.

That could be the Saturday effect. Voting numbers could fall off a cliff after 6 pm. If the numbers keep up we could be looking at above 70% turnout

brick tamland · 08-02-2020 5:39pm

I was out early and it was definitely the usual age group asexpected. Perhaps to early for the twentysomethings at 9am :-)

Sir Oxman · 08-02-2020 6:18pm

Hope the downturn in the weather now after a super morning doesn't dent the turnout too much.

odyssey06 · 08-02-2020 6:24pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Hope the downturn in the weather now after a super morning doesn't dent the turnout too much.

I'd say anyone paying attention to the weather, or the rugby, would have planned to vote early.

Dodge · 08-02-2020 7:04pm

The usual busy times for votes is after work and even the late evening. Can’t see the Saturday hours having that late rush

Capt'n Midnight · 08-02-2020 8:14pm

Dodge wrote: »

The usual busy times for votes is after work and even the late evening. Can’t see the Saturday hours having that late rush

When's mass over ?

Sir Oxman · 08-02-2020 9:28pm

Eoin O Broin SF Dub MW is frantically tweeting about the reported tailing off of voters in DMW.
Looks like it won't be even 60% final turnout if current trend keeps up.
Mind you it was 50 something % last time, way below national turnout.

Zetor19 · 08-02-2020 9:31pm

There is no excuse for a low turn out , you would think the polling booths were out in middle of the street or something with people using the weather as an excuse .

brick tamland · 08-02-2020 9:46pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Eoin O Broin SF Dub MW is frantically tweeting about the reported tailing off of voters in DMW.
Looks like it won't be even 60% final turnout if current trend keeps up.
Mind you it was 50 something % last time, way below national turnout.

Im guessing a lower turn out hits the shinners chances of getting 2 elected. I think this will be interesting. Transfers will be fascinating.

Obrien and Curran should be ok I reckon but we may see surprises after that.....

Sir Oxman · 08-02-2020 10:00pm

brick tamland wrote: »

Im guessing a lower turn out hits the shinners chances of getting 2 elected. I think this will be interesting. Transfers will be fascinating.

Obrien and Curran should be ok I reckon but we may see surprises after that.....

yeah, interesting day ahead tomorrow.

I juts checked (and someone else corrected me elsewhere)
2016 turnout was 62.8%

Borgo · 09-02-2020 12:01pm

Ó Broin and Ward are looking very comfortable. Delighted. That is some going to do that.

duffman13 · 09-02-2020 12:13pm

Borgo wrote: »

Ó Broin and Ward are looking very comfortable. Delighted. That is some going to do that.

I thought they'd take two seats, the manner is astounding though! First two across the line by a comfortable margin. Transfers important but Curran and Higgins or Casserly is my shout. Gino still in the shake but transfers will be impossible to call really in this

Sir Oxman · 09-02-2020 12:31pm

Looks like SF have done it in Dublin MW (vote management) to retain 2 - 92/110 boxes
SF 42.5%
FG 16.7% <--Casserly not Higgins leading here
FF 12.1%
PBP 7.9%

Really good vote management

O Broin 8400
Ward 6600

Nika Bolokov · 09-02-2020 12:33pm

Hard to know who's going to transfer to Curran.

Looks like too many FG candidates.

Gino still in the mix , wild transfers could even sneak Kavanagh in if he can nose ahead of either FG even Gogarty that 4th seat is a lottery

r93kaey5p2izun · 09-02-2020 12:33pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSFqox2ALaYO10PDeWz4DOc6BIey8je1VBMtdO0gcHbmcb9k5DoWnkdH7j7LS9xGX3CFfWwAMGYqCq_/pubhtml?gid=335042753&single=true

This is the tally spreadsheet. All boxes counted.

Borgo · 09-02-2020 12:37pm

duffman13 wrote: »

I thought they'd take two seats, the manner is astounding though! First two across the line by a comfortable margin. Transfers important but Curran and Higgins or Casserly is my shout. Gino still in the shake but transfers will be impossible to call really in this

Yeah I thought they would aswell but the manner is something else alright. Ivan Yates on his podcast last week for this area said it was nearly impossible for Sinn Féin to do this and laughed it off really. But there ye go ðŸ˜‰

brick tamland · 09-02-2020 3:48pm

Gino to get the Shinners transfers. FG to transfer to each other if one out 1st. Curran in trouble maybe?

Dodge · 09-02-2020 3:59pm

brick tamland wrote: »

Gino to get the Shinners transfers. FG to transfer to each other if one out 1st. Curran in trouble maybe?

Won’t be too many transfers from Ward to be fair

Think it’ll be Curran getting that last seat ahead of Kenny unfortunately

Pherekydes · 09-02-2020 3:59pm

Higgins will take the FG seat, while Kenny outdips Curran on the line.

SDs missed a great chance to take a seat here.

Labour getting erased...

brick tamland · 09-02-2020 4:04pm

Pherekydes wrote: »

Higgins will take the FG seat, while Kenny outdips Curran on the line.

SDs missed a great chance to take a seat here.

Labour getting erased...

I think it may be casserly. I think she may get gogarty transfers. (Presuming hes out 1st)

magicray · 09-02-2020 4:08pm

I think Higgins transfers could go anywhere, she is popular in her home town but not really anywhere else so I would doubt her votes are from FG supporters

I hope Kenny gets the 3rd seat, he is one of a few genuinely hard workers around here imo - think he has a good chance if the SF transfers go his way

duffman13 · 09-02-2020 4:59pm

Pherekydes wrote: »

Higgins will take the FG seat, while Kenny outdips Curran on the line.

SDs missed a great chance to take a seat here.

Labour getting erased...

This election potentially bucks the trend but I was reading a piece about the vote mechanism and basically only 4 candidates who finished outside the top 5 first preference votes have ever got in on transfers. Its hugely interesting to see how it goes but if Curran loses a seat it be shocked. If SDs ran here they'd have got a decent vote but not sure if they'd have the numbers. Gogarty had a stinker really, that's potentially the end of him.

Timmons should transfer well enough to FF but in contradiction to myself, I struggle to see a huge number of transfers going to Curran

Capt'n Midnight · 09-02-2020 6:44pm

Results page.

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-mid-west

Count 1 Quota 9,091
Eoin Ó Broin, SF 11842
Mark Ward, SF 7621
John Curran, FF 4931
Emer Higgins, FG 4487
Gino Kenny, SOL-PBP 3572
Vicki Casserly, FG 3501
Paul Gogarty, IND 2950
Peter Kavanagh, GP 2785
Joanna Tuffy, LAB 1541
Francis Timmons, IND 1103
Caitríona Mcclean, FF 667
David Gardiner, WP 452

Ward only needs half of Ó Broin surplus to cross the line.

FG combined vote is 7988 s
Green combined vote is 5735 but transfer friendly

Gino 3572 + Everyone else's vote of 3763 = 7335 but transfers will go all over the place , how many to Curran ?
*Joanna Tuffy, LAB Francis Timmons, IND Caitríona Mcclean, FF David Gardiner, WP

r93kaey5p2izun · 09-02-2020 7:45pm

Mark Ward elected.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-02-2020 8:43pm

Count 3

Eoin Ó Broin, SF Count 1 11,842
Mark Ward, SF Count 2 9,808
John Curran, FF + 17 4,997
Emer Higgins, FG + 12 4,526
Gino Kenny, SOL-PBP + 409 4,228
Vicki Casserly, FG + 11 3,529
Paul Gogarty, IND + 55 3,049
Peter Kavanagh, GP + 69 2,924
Joanna Tuffy, LAB + 26 1,599
Francis Timmons, IND + 78 1,238
Caitríona Mcclean, FF + 3 677
David Gardiner, WP + 37

brick tamland · 09-02-2020 8:58pm

Hard to call now.

Dublin mid west election 2020

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