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Dublin mid west election 2020

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    #32
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,204 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    average_runner wrote: »
    Sometimes wonder are we better off not voting at all and send a message that way

    I never force people to vote. If you can’t vote for anybody, don’t

    However it won’t be seen as a protest or anything. Loads don’t vote at every election and no ‘message is seen’

    Pick the party/parties that most closely align itself to your views and vote that way. None of them will be exactly what you want


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    #33
    Thrashssacre
    Registered Users Posts: 1,261 ✭✭✭Thrashssacre


    Honestly don't know who to vote for, not keen on any of the candidates at all. Probably give john curran the number one for being pro life beyond that haven't a breeze what I'll do.


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    #34
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Thrashssacre wrote: »
    Honestly don't know who to vote for, not keen on any of the candidates at all. Probably give john curran the number one for being pro life beyond that haven't a breeze what I'll do.

    I'm going to give the Renua candidate my #1 (even though his campaign is pretty much non-existent) and Curran my #2. I can't, in good conscience, vote for anyone else.


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    #35
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,053 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Thrashssacre wrote: »
    Probably give john curran the number one for being pro life

    Pro pope you mean?


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    #36
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    I think both FF and FG are running too many candidates.

    The FG vote could be split over two candidates neither of who could end up getting elected.

    O'Broin, Ward and Gino Kenny are fighting for the Neilstown vote. Only one of those three will get in I reckon. O'Broin needs a big vote here too even if they are asking that Ward get the number 1 here. Seems confident that he can pick up 1st preferences in non traditional SF voting parts of Mid West which is still a bit of an ask.

    Gogarty will poll well, people are annoyed and he remains popular in Palmerstown and parts of Lucan.

    The dark horse is Kavanagh for the Greens. Odds on him taking a seat dropping from 14/1 at the start to as low as 8/1 recently.

    With such a fragmented vote and annoyed electorate he could bring his strong enough Clondalkin village vote and take transfers from Gogarty, Curran, Timmons and even SF.

    Mid-West is a relatively young electorate which may not vote traditionally.

    Hes very transfer friendly and I reckon he could slip in.

    My Guess:

    Curran
    Gogarty
    O'Broin
    Kavanagh


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    #37
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,204 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Can’t see Gogarty and Kavanagh getting in. I don’t think either will get in but Gogarty would have a much better shout if he was still in the Greens. I think they’ll split that vote

    I think one each of SF, FF and FG are safe. Last seat could be anything tbh, Ward could sneak it for SF if they get a late surge. PBP is still in with a fighting chance and Gogarty is in the mix too. Wouldn’t even be too much of a surprise if Tuffy came back in either


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    #38
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I think you're vastly underestimating OBroin's vote if you think he's relying on Neilstown!

    I think OBroin is safe, and probably Curran. I think it will be either Gino or Ward - probably Ward. After that I don't know. It's hard to imagine FG not getting a seat - they had a massive vote across the constituency in the local election. But I think Gogarty and Kavanagh have a chance if the FG vote collapses. Gogarty is very popular in Lucan and Palmerstown, he can appeal to Green voters, and he has FG connections in the family meaning those looking for an alternative to FG in Lucan/Palmerstown may consider him too.


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    #39
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »
    I think you're vastly underestimating OBroin's vote if you think he's relying on Neilstown!

    I think OBroin is safe, and probably Curran. I think it will be either Gino or Ward - probably Ward. After that I don't know. It's hard to imagine FG not getting a seat - they had a massive vote across the constituency in the local election. But I think Gogarty and Kavanagh have a chance if the FG vote collapses. Gogarty is very popular in Lucan and Palmerstown, he can appeal to Green voters, and he has FG connections in the family meaning those looking for an alternative to FG in Lucan/Palmerstown may consider him too.

    I think a lot in Lucan will give transfers from Vicki to Paul and vice versa.

    I do think FG vote will collapse but also think Vicki will out poll Higgins.


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    #40
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,053 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »
    I think you're vastly underestimating OBroin's vote if you think he's relying on Neilstown!

    I think OBroin is safe



    +1

    O'Broin is a high flyer within SF, I'd say he's safer than any other candidate


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    #41
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    average_runner wrote: »
    I think a lot in Lucan will give transfers from Vicki to Paul and vice versa.

    I do think FG vote will collapse but also think Vicki will out poll Higgins.

    I also think Vicki will out poll Higgins. She is well liked in Lucan despite being FG (in the current climate), whereas Higgins seems to have very little in the way of a personal vote - she seems very disliked.


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    #42
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,204 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Vivian Ashy Attic wrote: »
    I also think Vicki will out poll Higgins. She is well liked in Lucan despite being FG (in the current climate), whereas Higgins seems to have very little in the way of a personal vote - she seems very disliked.

    Higgins topped the poll at the local elections. By quite a margin too


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    #43
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    Dodge wrote: »
    Higgins topped the poll at the local elections. By quite a margin too

    She did. But that's a long time ago in politics, and since then she failed to get elected in the by election despite huge FG first preferences across many local election candidates in the constituency, and FG have seen their support reduce hugely across the board. I've never heard a good word said about her as an individual representative, and I think her local election result was a FG vote -which is in trouble.


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    #44
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,441 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Dodge wrote: »
    Higgins topped the poll at the local elections. By quite a margin too

    In clondalkin. There are other clondalkin candidates that i think will poll better here. I think both Cassidy and Gogarty will get more vores than her in Lucan . As above I think gogarty and casserly will transfer to each other rather than to higgins. Intresting times

    Paddy power have Currran and O'Brion as certs, ward also short odds on. Gogarty Higgins and Gino battling for 4th seat but they got the by election very wrong, so who knows.


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    #45
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,204 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    My only point was that I don’t think it’s fair to say she doesn’t have a personal vote when she did quite well in an election last year. Even in the by-election she finished a reasonable 3rd.

    As ever, transfers will be key


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    #46
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    The vast majority of her vote will come from Rathcoole/Saggart tbh. This is where her location election vote came from anyway. I'm not sure how well she will poll in Clondalkin this time, Curran will sway a lot of the older traditional voters to him in Clondalkin, Kavanagh will pick up a bit of the younger vote in Clondalkin and O'Brioin will mop up a whack too, I dont see where Higgins will slot in and she's never seen around here really.


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    #47
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Dodge wrote: »
    Higgins topped the poll at the local elections. By quite a margin too

    But that was just in one local area.

    And for the by election, a lot didn't vote including myself as I knew a general election was coming. By election was a shambles


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    #48
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,204 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Fair points. By election was a shambles, no doubt there.

    It just struck me how hard FG pushed Higgins for the locals, and the by elections. I had literally never heard of her until she was on every single lamppost last time out. She had more than the others combined IMO

    Her ‘I’m just a struggling renter like you’ schtick from the by election annoyed me (as she’s easily on over 100k a year between the google job and the councillor top op) so maybe others got pissed off too

    I hope so,


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    #49
    ShyMets
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭ShyMets


    Dodge wrote: »
    Fair points. By election was a shambles, no doubt there.

    It just struck me how hard FG pushed Higgins for the locals, and the by elections. I had literally never heard of her until she was on every single lamppost last time out. She had more than the others combined IMO

    Her ‘I’m just a struggling renter like you’ schtick from the by election annoyed me (as she’s easily on over 100k a year between the google job and the councillor top op) so maybe others got pissed off too

    I hope so,

    I was in Palmerstown last weekend visiting my Father and it really did seem Higgins poster was plastered on every lamppost. FG are clearly pushing her hard but I suspect Casserly polled better


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    #50
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    ShyMets wrote: »
    I was in Palmerstown last weekend visiting my Father and it really did seem Higgins poster was plastered on every lamppost. FG are clearly pushing her hard but I suspect Casserly polled better




    She always has posters plastered around about something, so that is really annoying


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    #51
    unkel
    Registered Users Posts: 65,053 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Dodge wrote: »
    she’s easily on over 100k a year between the google job

    Not many people in Google under 100k, typically only young new recruits or part timers


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    #52
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    unkel wrote: »
    Not many people in Google under 100k, typically only young new recruits or part timers

    Depends what part of Google your in, I know a few people who work in Google and none of them are anywhere near 100k (non tech, like a good portion of Dublin office)


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    #53
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,204 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Apologies she’s ‘Chief of Staff - Operations’ in PayPal Europe


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    #54
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    In all my years of voting, after tonights debate.... I really dont know who I will be voting for on Saturday.


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    #55
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    cherryghost wrote: »
    In all my years of voting, after tonights debate.... I really dont know who I will be voting for on Saturday.

    Felt Leo was the winner, mainly because the other two were rubbish.
    Who ever was doing the interview should be fired as it was terrible


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    #56
    zerosugarbuzz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭zerosugarbuzz


    average_runner wrote: »
    Felt Leo was the winner, mainly because the other two were rubbish.
    Who ever was doing the interview should be fired as it was terrible

    Do you really not know the names of the two presenters in question?


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    #57
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    zerosugarbuzz wrote: »
    Do you really not know the names of the two presenters in question?


    I do but just didn't want to waste my time typing their names:D


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    #58
    emo72
    Registered Users Posts: 6,227 ✭✭✭emo72


    canvasser for casserley knocked on the door. rattled off a load of things that she would do, and about a lot of her concerns. never once mentioned housing or homelessness. that speaks volumes.


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    #59
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,921 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Nika Bolokov wrote: »
    I think both FF and FG are running too many candidates.
    SF too.

    The trick is to have your running mate be the last person eliminated and use their votes to get you the last seat.

    Worst thing that can happen is your running mate does too well and doesn't get eliminated so neither of you get elected as the person between you skips ahead.


    Also
    https://www.met.ie/forecasts/dublin
    After a mostly dry start on Saturday morning, heavy rain and strong and gusty southerly winds will move eastwards over the country bringing a risk of very strong squally winds, with gales along all coasts and strong gale force winds along the northwest coast. Some of the rain turning wintry in parts of Ulster for a very short time. The rain possibly lingering into the evening in parts of Leinster and Munster.


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    #60
    yaboya1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭yaboya1


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    SF too.

    The trick is to have your running mate be the last person eliminated and use their votes to get you the last seat.

    Worst thing that can happen is your running mate does too well and doesn't get eliminated so neither of you get elected as the person between you skips ahead.


    Also
    https://www.met.ie/forecasts/dublin

    O'Broin is a cert, so maybe SF think there's a good possibility of nabbing the last seat if he's elected early (likely to top poll imo) and Ward gets his transfers.


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    #61
    alias no.9
    Registered Users Posts: 6,273 ✭✭✭alias no.9


    yaboya1 wrote: »
    O'Broin is a cert, so maybe SF think there's a good possibility of nabbing the last seat if he's elected early (likely to top poll imo) and Ward gets his transfers.

    If Ward can get ahead of Gino, he could well keep his seat, there's a seat for one of them.


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