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17-12-2019, 12:36   #61
Gonzo
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
An interesting signal alright. Sometimes they disappear and randomly return later. I get the distinct impression we won't have to wait until March this time round.
I've a feeling we may get something too, perhaps end of January or sometime in February. This is the 3rd of 4th time the charts have picked up a cold pattern recently. Over half of last night's runs were cold runs which is a good sign, not just 1 or 2 outlying runs. The AO/NAO is set to go negative soon too and there is still the possibility of a SSW event developing between now and February so winter has alot of cards to play yet and 2 full months of hoping and waiting left to go!
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17-12-2019, 13:14   #62
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2 full months of hoping and waiting left to go!



the way you described it makes it sound kinda passively torturous.




im off to stick pins in my eye.
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17-12-2019, 13:50   #63
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the way you described it makes it sound kinda passively torturous.




im off to stick pins in my eye.
A lot of us stopped paying regular attention to the charts after Christmas in January 2018, and then hopped on here after a few weeks just to see how things were going only to find the mother of all excited ramping threads in preparation for The Beast
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17-12-2019, 13:53   #64
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I realise this is the tech thread. I think this is a relevant tech Q around the naming of tomorrows "storm".

The Portuguese met named this yesterday as STORMELSA ( E ). However we just had STORM ATIYAH ( A ). It seems the Portuguese have already gone from A to D? We have only done A?

So some saying IF this gets named by IRL or UK Met it could be called StormBrendan. OR will they stick with StormElsa? OR not named at all because it doesnt merit a name?
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17-12-2019, 14:06   #65
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A lot of us stopped paying regular attention to the charts after Christmas in January 2018, and then hopped on here after a few weeks just to see how things were going only to find the mother of all excited ramping threads in preparation for The Beast
The Beast from the East had a lot going for it with the stratosphere set up in a perfect state for the development of a massive Scandinavian High.

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Originally Posted by aidanodr View Post
I realise this is the tech thread. I think this is a relevant tech Q around the naming of tomorrows "storm".

The Portuguese met named this yesterday as STORMELSA ( E ). However we just had STORM ATIYAH ( A ). It seems the Portuguese have already gone from A to D? We have only done A?

So some saying IF this gets named by IRL or UK Met it could be called StormBrendan. OR will they stick with StormElsa? OR not named at all because it doesnt merit a name?
France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium all co-operate and share a different set of storm names. They're a complete separate entity to our own names. UK, Ireland and Netherlands co-operate so we share the same storm names.

Storm names used so far by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium:

Amelie (1–4 November)
Bernardo (9–11 November)
Cecilia (18–28 November)
Daniel
Elsa

If it's already been named by another met, it's likely other mets will use the same name so as to avoid confusion (we could do without more confusion than what we already have with this entire system). It's the same with ex-hurricanes being called like ex-hurricane Helene instead of a new storm name.
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17-12-2019, 14:18   #66
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The Beast from the East had a lot going for it with the stratosphere set up in a perfect state for the development of a massive Scandinavian High.



France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium all co-operate and share a different set of storm names. They're a complete separate entity to our own names. UK, Ireland and Netherlands co-operate so we share the same storm names.

Storm names used so far by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium:

Amelie (1–4 November)
Bernardo (9–11 November)
Cecilia (18–28 November)
Daniel
Elsa

If it's already been named by another met, it's likely other mets will use the same name so as to avoid confusion (we could do without more confusion than what we already have with this entire system). It's the same with ex-hurricanes being called like ex-hurricane Helene instead of a new storm name.
So Sryanbruen, if we run with an already named storm .. this case we call it Storm ELSA. Do we then continue on from E to F for next storm OR do WE go back to B AND when we come to E again, skip E?
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17-12-2019, 14:30   #67
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So Sryanbruen, if we run with an already named storm .. this case we call it Storm ELSA. Do we then continue on from E to F for next storm OR do WE go back to B AND when we come to E again, skip E?
We go back to B if the Irish, UK or Dutch Met were to name it. Remember how we had Storm Georgina in January 2018 then had Emma (Portuguese Met) in March and Hector in June.
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17-12-2019, 19:50   #68
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If this isn't the picture of uncertainty then I dunno what is. All to play for in the final week of December, into new years day. Do we stay with the mild and wet conditions or do we head towards a pattern change to something colder and dryer. The models clearly struggling.
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17-12-2019, 20:05   #69
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If this isn't the picture of uncertainty then I dunno what is. All to play for in the final week of December, into new years day. Do we stay with the mild and wet conditions or do we head towards a pattern change to something colder and dryer. The models clearly struggling.
Yeah but there are a majority of the ensemble members in that on the milder and Rainier side
Only A small number go below average temp wise
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17-12-2019, 20:22   #70
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Yeah but there are a majority of the ensemble members in that on the milder and Rainier side
Only A small number go below average temp wise
true most of them are still on the mild side but I think this is an evolving situation with runs flipping between mild and cold multiple times. Could be interesting model watching over the next week to see where we end up in early January.
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17-12-2019, 20:41   #71
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true most of them are still on the mild side but I think this is an evolving situation with runs flipping between mild and cold multiple times. Could be interesting model watching over the next week to see where we end up in early January.
I never bother looking beyond 8 days unless theres a lot less spread than that
Form horse on pattern change though is a high anchored over us that eventually sinks south
Settled and relatively mild would be the result of that
No indication in the next 8 days of that and we have a record strong polar vortex at the moment locking the cold well up there

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1...012851200?s=19
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18-12-2019, 08:00   #72
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2020 could start off nicely if GFS FI was to come true, we know it won't but fun to see


Last edited by Villain; 18-12-2019 at 08:24. Reason: doh!
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18-12-2019, 08:12   #73
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2021 could start off nicely if GFS FI was to come true, we know it won't but fun to see

2021? Now that is seriously FI
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18-12-2019, 12:26   #74
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charts still all over the place for new years, some have the Atlantic continuing to barge in over us, some have high pressure, a few have short lived northerlies and the odd one has a go at getting the winds in from the east. The majority are still fairly mild and unsettled. They are trying to bring colder conditions but clearly struggling against the relentless power of the Atlantic this season. I've a feeling the Atlantic will continue to dominate for another while but would like to see it running out of steam towards the middle of January.
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18-12-2019, 22:19   #75
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GFS showing Scandi high way out in FI.

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