Very cold, Snow

Redsunset · 02-01-2011 11:07pm

God it must be looking bad for any serious cold coming,when we start talking bout squirrels.:D

02-01-2011 11:07pm

rc28 wrote: »

I was just remarking today how many birds were in our garden and coming so close to the house to get food! We have a few bird feeders in back yard and they were swarming around them too.

Weird all the animals are acting odd - in the wood near us there were so many squirrels scurrying around the place which I never see.

they certainly called the earthquake in Chile.

maquiladora · 02-01-2011 11:10pm

18Z GFS not as cold out to 102 hours....the low to the southwest is a bit more beefy, rain pushing in from the south.

gfs-0-96.png?18

By 120 hours....

gfs-1-120.png?18

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2011 11:15pm

Close but no cigar.

A situation developing which could prove very interesting, it will go down to a coin flip.

If we won the coin flip and you push this synoptic 100 miles further east, we'd be talking snowpocalypse.

At the moment, we are talking rain.

Lovely synoptic, would be terrible to see it wasted into the Atlantic..

BEASTERLY · 02-01-2011 11:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah the upper airs aren't colder than late november are they? Not colder than the uppers we got at the start of the nov/early dec spell ?
Remember once you have near zero cold surface air in place and near zero surface air advecting in from your wind direction source,thats when you can allow the uppers to be warmer.
I'm pretty sure it was snowing all day here with uppers warmer than -5c towards the latter end of the early december spell.
Thats because you had those two factors happening.The latter being freezing surface air advection seeping in from Britain.

Usually you do not have the freezing surface air in a northwesterly or a westerly[of northerly origin] as it's a marine layer exclusively at the surface level as opposed to having had land modification in the case of an easterly or north easterly and in late november/early december,it was an icy modification!
Hence thats why you need a minimum -8 850 air and preferably -10 air from the west or north west to diminish the affect of the sst's and that marine layer advection.

Meh! I'm taking a simple view of the next week.Everything is flowing from the north.
The only problem is it's a very gradual and slow process meaning it's getting hellish modification on that sea track.
But step by step,this could get there properly eventually.

The models can't handle it thats for sure.
New and different solutions from all of them this evening again.
Lots of forecast intuition needed rather than heres the latest chart lads for 4 days time and it says snow...

Looked like it was going to be pretty mediocere going by that chart. But as you say this is a flow that had been over the land along time and we are dealing with a different beast all together.

Why oh why cant we have a Siberian flow, i remember a few of those even in the mildest of winters.

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2011 11:19pm

And this chart shall be known as 'Potential'

I love how the Atlantic blow in programmed in by all the models is getting pushed back, the Atlantic just doesn't want to kick into what we expect from it in the usual places. I am not saying it won't but it is resisting.

maquiladora · 02-01-2011 11:20pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Close but no cigar.

A situation developing which could prove very interesting, it will go down to a coin flip.

If we won the coin flip and you push this synoptic 100 miles further east, we'd be talking snowpocalypse.

At the moment, we are talking rain.

Rain, but then turning to sleet and snow as the colder air follows down?

gfs-2-132.png?18

Situation will change anyway....

lionela · 02-01-2011 11:26pm

Surely ..
."The Weather will be widespread."..
would be suffice for the forseeable future.

BEASTERLY · 02-01-2011 11:27pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

And this chart shall be known as 'Potential'

I love how the Atlantic blow in programmed in by all the models is getting pushed back, the Atlantic just doesn't want to kick into what we expect from it in the usual places. I am not saying it won't but it is resisting.

Unfortunately the cold is getting push back quicker than the mild is, but then again the GFS was never optimistic about this spell, but the ECM shows the atlantic kicking in the door much quicker.

goat2 · 02-01-2011 11:28pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

At the moment, I am more convinced of the cold than the snow potential for eastern and southern counties, but the models are not really giving us very reliable projections of the details once the cold air gets established mid-week, so I think it's prudent to at least warn people of the potential for a return to snow -- which seems quite likely in Connacht and parts of Ulster by Tuesday night or Wednesday.
So far this outbreak looks just a little less severe than the first two were, but it's severe enough to be concerned about wintry weather returning after what has turned out to be a week-long break from the severe conditions.

it is really cold here right now

HellFireClub · 02-01-2011 11:44pm

You never know, we might just catch Paddy Power with his trousers down again!

:D:D

Pangea · 03-01-2011 12:42am

HellFireClub wrote: »

You never know, we might just catch Paddy Power with his trousers down again! :D:D

Afraid not Paddy Power doesnt have any weather betting for temperatures anymore Im afraid.

MagicMarker · 03-01-2011 12:47am

Wouldn't mind a bit of snow to postpone exams. They start on Thurs and I haven't started studying yet.:o:p:cool:

filo87 · 03-01-2011 12:48am

It's snowing very lightly in Inniscarra, Cork

jimmy.d · 03-01-2011 1:00am

Jake1 wrote: »

did you hear about all the Birds falling from sky in arkansas? also hundreds of thousands of dead fish washing up. Same In South AMerica apparently. All over the past few days. Looks like scenes from the Birds, the Hitchcock classic.
Saying maybe lighning or hail ..

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/01/02/dead-birds-fall-ark-sky/

If I see birds dropping from sky, I'l pass out.

film on rte the birds

lucernarian · 03-01-2011 5:43am

00z GFS model is suggesting a small but still signifcant increase in the threat of snow for many northern parts of Ireland on Tuesday evening/night, the sort of change that would have snow on more higher-up spots (away from coasts) and not just the highest hills and mountains.

00z NAE seems to lessen the threat of snow slightly but that only has forecasts up to Tuesday midnight.

Either way, most low lying parts won't see any white stuff sticking on the ground but those who live higher up should take note.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2011 8:39am

A push of very mild air is quite likely around the 13th to 17th according to my research model, which has been doing fairly well on timing these sectors within a generally cold winter. The reason for it is connected with the strong retrograde activity across Greenland in December. As that builds further west and comes into phase with the Pacific ridge that was expected due to La Nina, there is a high probability of strong trough building in eastern North America, which in turn usually generates a more active jet stream and wave train from north of Bermuda towards Ireland. Although the background signals are cold, this episode is almost unavoidable but I also don't expect it to last much more than a week at most. It happens to coincide with a more northerly push of lunar tidal forces on the atmosphere, so that a stronger signal and then reversal could be expected than if this jet stream rise came with a southerly drag as we currently have in the background (these scales of interactions are rather subtle day to day).

The scenario with this mild spell looks conducive for a significant wind event to develop at some point, most likely in the period 16th to 19th at which time colder air should also be making a return. I am saying, then, look out for another kind of weather action altogether, strong westerly winds, something that has been just about absent from the scene since about mid-November.

angel01 · 03-01-2011 8:46am

This snow better not come back :mad: Sick of it at this stage..

Cleavage1970 · 03-01-2011 8:54am

i agree angel!! While its lovely to look at it's a total nightmare getting from a to b when it freezes and the roads turn to ice rinks!

snaps · 03-01-2011 9:33am

Snow being reported in the South west of England on BBC radio.

Ricky91t · 03-01-2011 10:28am

Snowing very Lightly in North Kerry!

jimmyjim11 · 03-01-2011 10:34am

very light snow starting in west limerick

ch750536 · 03-01-2011 11:28am

Snow lying on the floor here, grass & car covered, drive & roads clear. Snowing reasonably.

aurora 527 · 03-01-2011 11:29am

Am i right in thinking that this is only going to be a brief cold spell..:(

followed by wet and windy weather next week?

snaps · 03-01-2011 11:39am

The band pushing into Scotland and soon Ulster is very mild air. Temps in West Scotland risen from well to below 0 to nearly 10c, its 100% rain apart from the highlands.

03-01-2011 11:53am

aurora 527 wrote: »

Am i right in thinking that this is only going to be a brief cold spell..:(

followed by wet and windy weather next week?

Hard to say.
Models are very uncertain,changing things on every run.
Currently the flow is all from the north but to put it as simply as Dan Corbett did on the bbc yesterday,the artic door is only slightly ajar.So only a small amount of artic air is escaping at the moment.
It wouldn't take a whole lot of tweaking for the flood gates of artic air to open but thats not modeled to happen at present.
It might and it might not.

At present we have decaying front trapped in some home grown cold [essentially modified polar maritime air that is over us but that has lost it's sea modification because theres no wind as pressure is high].
That home grown cold is enough to squeeze out some snizzle and very light snow from the decaying front.
Away from high ground that will hardly be noticed.

Going forward we see fronts moving down essentially governed by the milder Atlantic air which is prevailing in this north south flow at the moment.
When they pass,we have less of an atlantic influence but still a winning one it looks like in the sense that it will modify the polar air enough to make snow a marginal event.
Snow will probably happen but it will be more so enthusiasts snow rather than disruptive snow.
By that I mean,you'll get people posting here theres a blizzard in ballykillageery which will really be wet snow that sticks for a while but melts like mad , the minute the sun comes out.

There is a medium probability that the arctic gates will open fully and we'll get something more interesting.

Stay tuned.

aurora 527 · 03-01-2011 11:58am

Deleted User wrote: »

Hard to say.

Stay tuned.

Thank you Black Briar:)

john mayo 10 · 03-01-2011 12:08pm

can somebody explain the difference between wet and powder/dry snow:rolleyes:

fricatus · 03-01-2011 12:36pm

john mayo 10 wrote: »

can somebody explain the difference between wet and powder/dry snow:rolleyes:

Imagine it lands on the sleeve of your jacket. You'll be able to blow the powdery stuff away (a bit like polystyrene), whereas the wetter stuff won't move so easily.

EDIT: duuuhhh, you were looking for the difference in terms of its internal physical properties, weren't you?

:D

Probably the wet snowflake contains a higher percentage of liquid water and the dry one is practically all made up of ice?

cherryghost · 03-01-2011 1:05pm

06Z looking very positive for the week into the weekend. A very positive forecast with a few cm's of snow almost nationwide leading into the weekend

ellieh1 · 03-01-2011 1:56pm

Its snowing very lightly here in Limerick city at the moment!!:D

Avns1s · 03-01-2011 2:23pm

cherryghost wrote: »

06Z looking very positive for the week into the weekend. A very positive forecast with a few cm's of snow almost nationwide leading into the weekend

Someone would want to tell Met Eireann. They talk of snow turning to rain.

03 January 2011 11:43

Today
Cold and mostly cloudy this afternoon with just a few bright or short sunny spells. Some light rain or sleet over parts of Munster, with a few snow flurries, but these should die out later. Some further rain or sleet will develop over north Ulster with some snow on hills there this evening. Top temperatures zero to plus 4 degrees.

Tonight

Cold overnight with frost under clear skies, with a sharp frost developing over Munster and south Leinster. Breezy and mostly cloudy over Ulster, Connacht and later north Leinster with some outbreaks of rain or sleet, heavy at times and with some snow on northern hills. Lowest temperatures between -3 and +2 degrees, coldest in more southern areas.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Tuesday will be cloudy and breezy with rain at times, some of it persistent and heavy, with a little sleet possible on high ground. But some dry spells too, best over south Munster and south Leinster. After a cold start, top temperatures in mid afternoon will range 3 to 8 degrees - best in the northwest and west. Winds fresh southwesterly.

Outlook

Cold for the rest of the week with temperatures below normal with frosts at night under clear skies and also some sleet or snow showers at times. Breezy Tuesday overnight with rain in many places, falling as sleet at times, mainly on high ground and with a risk of a little snow on northern hills. But some breaks in cloud cover too, with frost developing under clear skies, mainly in the south of the country. Lows -2 to +3 degrees. Wednesday will have some further showers or rain, with some sleet on hills, but some bright spells also. Wednesday night will cold and fairly clear with a widespread hard frost and some icy patches. Lows zero to -4 C. Cold and mainly dry on Thursday with moderate northerly breezes. It will be cold on Thursday night with a sharp to severe frost, but latest information suggests that a spell of windy weather, with rain and sleet will develop along the south coast around nightfall or so, and will spread slowly northwards overnight and on Friday falling as snow in many places, but turning back to rain from the south eventually. Weekend : Cold with some showers or rain at times, some of it wintry, mainly on high ground. Cold and frosty at night.

WolfeIRE · 03-01-2011 2:27pm

Weather Warning

Issued at 03 January 2011 - 13:22
Weather Warning
A band of rain or sleet will affect northern and northwestern parts of the country later this evening and overnight. It will fall as snow in places with between 2 and 5 cm of snow likely. This mainly on high ground, but some snow is possible at lower levels inland too.

cherryghost · 03-01-2011 2:29pm

The whole week is pretty much a toss up.

Tomorrow is looking slightly milder before temperatures dip for the week with snow showers speading southwards. Anything today or tonight will fall as light snow/sleet/rain.

The weekend is a mixed bag, there could be raining pushing up from the south or a renewed push from the north. It's a knife edge really, very hard to predict what will happen come Friday night. We could have more prolonged periods of snow that will continue into the weekend or we could have a thaw from some mild southerly push. Hopefully by Wednesday there will be clearer forecasts.

Let's stay positive for now

EDIT: I stand corrected. A slight upgrade for tonight. Tomorrow still looks like thaw city

El Horseboxo · 03-01-2011 2:44pm

There will be no more significant nationwide snowfalls this winter on lower levels. The odd heavy wet snow shower that might stick and feck off quite quickly. That's about it. Not negativity. Just reality.

compsys · 03-01-2011 2:53pm

El Horseboxo wrote: »

There will be no more significant nationwide snowfalls this winter on lower levels. The odd heavy wet snow shower that might stick and feck off quite quickly. That's about it. Not negativity. Just reality.

Could you please elaborate? And what exactly is your scientific and meteorological reasoning behind this statement? I'd really love to here it...

chucken1 · 03-01-2011 2:57pm

Snowing very lightly here in East Clare

WolfeIRE · 03-01-2011 3:00pm

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

click on nedbor

HIRLAM showing a band of precip moving se across ireland tomorrow.

03-01-2011 3:21pm

El Horseboxo wrote: »

There will be no more significant nationwide snowfalls this winter on lower levels. The odd heavy wet snow shower that might stick and feck off quite quickly. That's about it. Not negativity. Just reality.

Reality or rubbish.
I'd say rubbish.

I don't mean you any disrespect because you could be right,just as much as you could be wrong.
But the science you are using is no science at all...to state something thats impossible to state for a few months as a fact.
Hence Rubbish.

03-01-2011 3:28pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

click on nedbor

HIRLAM showing a band of precip moving se across ireland tomorrow.

The latest UKMO human forecaster forecast on news 24 has tonights rain widely turning to snow in inland East ulster but not on the coast of East Ulster.
They had rain everywhere else even rain for the wintry showers of this week.

Their graphic for the end of the week and mentioned briefly was a wall of white "at last" coming down from the north.
(Alex Deacon was the forecaster and he didn't say "at last"

but he did hint pointing at the graphic that the much colder air was going to break through by the weekend into northern scotland.)This was shown as all snow.
They didn't show the forecast chart for that so watch the faxes for features coming down from the north and the 510 dam line getting closer to the north of scotland by the looks of things.

Given that this new spell of cold weather we are entering into is more of a forecaster intuition forecast than a rely exclusively on the models one...then this forecast by Alex Deacon is the first real sign by them that something more interesting is on the way.

steveLFC24 · 03-01-2011 3:30pm

El Horseboxo wrote: »

There will be no more significant nationwide snowfalls this winter on lower levels. The odd heavy wet snow shower that might stick and feck off quite quickly. That's about it. Not negativity. Just reality.

Did you sleep through December? Because I believe thats classed as a winter month too. If you meant January/Febuary then thats a brave statement to make on the 3rd of January.

steveLFC24 · 03-01-2011 3:35pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

click on nedbor

HIRLAM showing a band of precip moving se across ireland tomorrow.

Looks like rain if the tempertaure model is anything to go by

John.Icy · 03-01-2011 3:41pm

steveLFC24 wrote: »

Did you sleep through December? Because I believe thats classed as a winter month too. If you meant January/Febuary then thats a brave statement to make on the 3rd of January.

He's right for awhile you know, rain this week, till thursday, when there ould be wet snow to rain to wet snow again. Uppers of -4 of higher, do not bring good snow off the atlantic. Simple as.

Nothing atm shows anyhting near December atm, but it is all open to big upgrades as disruptive snow can pop up outside of +96....

Hoping for an upgrade.!

Morrisseeee · 03-01-2011 3:47pm

We had a (wee) shower of snow at 1pm, North Cork, temp before the shower was 2C then after the shower went up to 3.5C.

John.Icy · 03-01-2011 3:48pm

Avns1s wrote: »

Someone would want to tell Met Eireann. They talk of snow turning to rain.

ATM, it will turn to Rain, so no, Met Eireann are right on this one.

All still could change. We dont want this low moving up so far from our SW, it has snow but drags in milder uppers for a time.

However, it would possibly turn back to snow, but the ground would be soaked.

Min · 03-01-2011 3:57pm

For people who like mild weather, there has been a downgrade.

Snow looks nailed on for higher ground again.

Pangea · 03-01-2011 4:00pm

A few snow flurries reported in Dungloe.

John.Icy · 03-01-2011 4:11pm

Min wrote: »

For people who like mild weather, there has been a downgrade.

Snow looks nailed on for higher ground again.

For people who like cold, its been a downgrade....Honestly are you looking at the models, from the 6z, its a total washout for the south from this LP, in fact for most of us for several days, temps of 9 degrees into the south by Thursday. Maybe snow on its Northern edge before heavy rain's start.

The only good is the cold spreads back from the NorthWest with some snow, but to far out to be anything, in the short term, its going to rain, with some wet snow for a short time at the end of this week.
We really need a big upgrade, or else this spell will be a damp squib, and setting up perfectly for an Atlantic onslaught, which looks likely now, regaurdless of of being in FI, it just doesn't look like being stopped.

Sierra Oscar · 03-01-2011 4:19pm

Snowing lightly here in North Tipp.

Harps · 03-01-2011 4:39pm

I'm only a couple of miles from Dungloe but we've had nothing here, I cant see the top of Errigal below the clouds but theres nothing on the mountains either aside from a few small patches surviving from last week.

Very cold, Snow

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