UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

El Guapo! · 18-03-2011 8:51pm

I know its a long shot and I'll still be doing my "real" bets for tomorrow, but it IS mma and anything can happen on the night so I'm still gonna throw a fiver on it anyway. I'd be kickin myself if I didn't do it and it came in!

mailburner · 18-03-2011 9:09pm

there really is no way on earth miller will beat nate
it may possibly be a unanimous dec for nate but i fail
to see how he can possibly beat him.
no shame in losing to okami or sonnen
different class as far as i can see
odds of 3/10 or nate should be more like 1/8

shogun 6/4 for me as its the gambling thread

cactus jack · 19-03-2011 1:18pm

just looked at fight of the night odds & shogun v jones is 3/1
also another longshot is cro cop for ko of the night at 9/1

ShagNastii · 19-03-2011 1:24pm

Those are two very inviting bets.

Shogun/Jones is so hyped if it lives up to even half of it, it will be fight of the night for sure.

YouSavedMyLife · 19-03-2011 3:41pm

How yez bettin? I went into boylesport and they had nutin bout mma and the cashier hadnt a clue herself

mailburner · 19-03-2011 3:44pm

YouSavedMyLife wrote: »

How yez bettin? I went into boylesport and they had nutin bout mma and the cashier hadnt a clue herself

they do have markets on it
maybe she couldnt be arsed even checking

http://classic.boylesports.com/betting/index.asp?sl=sltc&gi=16&sltc=65261.1&slc=-1

Mr.Conners · 19-03-2011 4:12pm

Marquardt = Put your house on it.

mailburner · 19-03-2011 6:21pm

the marq/schaub double works out at a little over 4/5

thinking of going big on it
i cant see past either of them
anyone think either of these might not win?

the money is down

cactus jack · 20-03-2011 12:46am

€5 on an accumulator with dan miller, eddie wineland, cro cop & shogun at about 94/1
& another €5 on cro cop by ko at 9/1

do can't remember the last time i won a bet so that's prob pissed away in the wind

Devastator · 20-03-2011 3:15am

Heres my treble

Brendan Schaub @ 4/11
Urijah Faber by Submission @ evens
Mauricio Rua @ 11/8

Tones69 · 20-03-2011 5:04pm

I was 6 for 6 until Rua took a spanking, fookin acumulators have me heart broken, every time they cmoe up I cant resist though ha

mailburner · 20-03-2011 6:10pm

mailburner wrote: »

the marq/schaub double works out at a little over 4/5

thinking of going big on it
i cant see past either of them
anyone think either of these might not win?

the money is down

didn't go as smoothly as i was thinking but it'll do
nearly had a heart attack when miller sank in that gullotine

mailburner · 25-03-2011 11:16am

garcia v the korean zombie part 2

this is priced up as 7/1 in the fight of the night market with paddy

incredible price for what must be one of the most obvious fight
of the nights in ages esp if the first fight is anything to go by

other than that ive gone for a treble on
davis
hathaway
morecraft
works out around 6/4

MrStuffins · 25-03-2011 1:42pm

mailburner wrote: »

garcia v the korean zombie part 2

this is priced up as 7/1 in the fight of the night market with paddy

That's just crazy!

mailburner · 25-03-2011 6:57pm

mailburner wrote: »

garcia v the korean zombie part 2

this is priced up as 7/1 in the fight of the night market with paddy

the money is coming
down to 11/2
i reckon this will be more like 4/1 come tomorrow night
what's more amazing is that this was 6/1 yesterday and
i snapped it up the minute i seen it and nearly choked
on my breakfast when i seen 7s this morning

El Guapo! · 25-03-2011 8:50pm

I snapped up Garcia v the zombie @ 7/1. Cant believe those odds, I thought it would've been the favourite. Its down to 11/2 now with PP

Also done an accumulator with Davis
Hathaway
Hendricks
Morecraft
Got it at about 3/1 with PP

SDTimeout · 25-03-2011 9:08pm

Gonna be betting on Garcia FOTN at 11/2, such a steal and annoyed i missed the 7/1

What does anyone make of Mario Miranda at 33/1 for Submission of the night, He lost to Maia by a decision in his last fight , which was all on the ground and he wasn't tapped and always looked relatively alright.

He's 7/1 to win his fight by submission also, he's fighting Aaron Simpson, primarily a wrestler but may be wary and could have worked on his stand up because of this. I'm going to have a dabble on both of these bets .

Big sexy mc corkle by KO at 4/1 seems generous, mainly because i dislike MORECRAFT.

Here's a bit of a risk also but could pay off , The Korean Zombie fight markets on PaddyPower are as follows.

Garcia by KO 13/2
Chung by KO 15/2
Points for both men 11/4

I can't see this fight ending in submission.. so theoretically i could place 20 euro on both of them for a decision, then a tenner on both of them by KO would mean the minimum amount of profit i could make is 15€.

mailburner · 25-03-2011 9:13pm

SDTimeout wrote: »

Garcia by KO 13/2
Chung by KO 15/2
Points for both men 11/4

I can't see this fight ending in submission.. so theoretically i could place 20 euro on both of them for a decision, then a tenner on both of them by KO would mean the minimum amount of profit i could make is 15€.

that's a very good idea and a small profit looks a certainty
i've too much invested myself and this is the most money
ive ever put on fight of the night by a mile

bret69 · 26-03-2011 12:20am

SDTimeout wrote: »

Gonna be betting on Garcia FOTN at 11/2, such a steal and annoyed i missed the 7/1

What does anyone make of Mario Miranda at 33/1 for Submission of the night, He lost to Maia by a decision in his last fight , which was all on the ground and he wasn't tapped and always looked relatively alright.

He's 7/1 to win his fight by submission also, he's fighting Aaron Simpson, primarily a wrestler but may be wary and could have worked on his stand up because of this. I'm going to have a dabble on both of these bets .

Big sexy mc corkle by KO at 4/1 seems generous, mainly because i dislike MORECRAFT.

Here's a bit of a risk also but could pay off , The Korean Zombie fight markets on PaddyPower are as follows.

Garcia by KO 13/2
Chung by KO 15/2
Points for both men 11/4

I can't see this fight ending in submission.. so theoretically i could place 20 euro on both of them for a decision, then a tenner on both of them by KO would mean the minimum amount of profit i could make is 15€.

It's a cool idea but nine of Garcia's fifteen wins AND six of the zombie's ten wins have come by submission...so there's a very good possibility it will end that way.

Is it worth risking sixty quid for a small return?

mailburner · 26-03-2011 12:24am

mailburner wrote: »

the money is coming
down to 11/2
i reckon this will be more like 4/1 come tomorrow night
what's more amazing is that this was 6/1 yesterday and
i snapped it up the minute i seen it and nearly choked
on my breakfast when i seen 7s this morning

9/2 now :pac:
anythings possible in mma but i can't see anything but
another stand up war

mailburner · 26-03-2011 2:02am

Dean09 wrote: »

Also done an accumulator with Davis
Hathaway
Hendricks
Morecraft
Got it at about 3/1 with PP

my treble of hath, morecr and davis works out at 6/4 with pp
adding hendricks at 1/4 makes it slighty better than a 2/1 shot

mailburner · 26-03-2011 12:54pm

getting carried away now
this works out at a little over 59/1 with pp
had to ring them to get this bet on however

morecr 8/15
hathaw 1/4
madsen 1/3
hendricks 1/4
davis 3/10
semerzier 2/5
henderson 8/11
stann evs
gsp by sub or points 4/5
machida by ko or points 4/6

SDTimeout · 26-03-2011 12:56pm

bret69 wrote: »

It's a cool idea but nine of Garcia's fifteen wins AND six of the zombie's ten wins have come by submission...so there's a very good possibility it will end that way.

Is it worth risking sixty quid for a small return?

Odds have changed, would have to bet 600(200+200+100+100) to make 40 at the least now. Paddy must be scouting this website out! 40€ at the least, 300€ at the most. I've looked at their records and Garcia's sub wins have come from the beginning of his career he hasn't won by sub since 2007. Then again Changs last win CAME via Submission. I think the shortening of the odds has put me off a little bit.

El Guapo! · 26-03-2011 2:17pm

mailburner wrote: »

my treble of hath, morecr and davis works out at 6/4 with pp
adding hendricks at 1/4 makes it slighty better than a 2/1 shot

Yeah your right, sorry my maths isn't the best!

mailburner · 26-03-2011 4:36pm

the money keeps coming
7/2 now for fotn :pac:

SDTimeout · 26-03-2011 5:09pm

It's nearly not worth it at that price now. I'm going to be staying away from it at 7/2 anyway. I always leave my bets till the night time, then again the UFC odds don't normally change to drastically.

mailburner · 27-03-2011 12:58pm

wouldve been a disaster for me had i not got the treble up

the fotn market is one ill avoid like the plague in future

prices for these were

fotn Michael McDonald and Edwin Figueroa 10/1

sub of the night Chan Sung Jung 7/1

ko of the night johnny hendricks 7/1

ShagNastii · 27-03-2011 6:04pm

I've been looking at this thread for a while and it really shows how hard it is betting-wise in the wonderful world of MMA.

I'm a bit skint at the mo so haven't been betting in a while. Used to do a "piss-take" accu with maybe 6 or 7 fights but they never come in from my experiences.

From know i'll stick to pretty decent money on doubles or trebles.

Mellor · 28-03-2011 4:18am

ShagNastii wrote: »

I've been looking at this thread for a while and it really shows how hard it is betting-wise in the wonderful world of MMA.

I find it one of the easier markets to bet on. Defo my biggest winning market

mailburner · 28-03-2011 10:29am

Mellor wrote: »

I find it one of the easier markets to bet on. Defo my biggest winning market

don't forget to post your picks here next time
we might all make a few quid off you

Mellor · 29-03-2011 2:50am

I do most of the time.
Potentially have something in the pipeline related to bettign and picks that's pretty interesting for me, will hopefull post about it more soon

ShagNastii · 08-04-2011 11:36pm

Might chance a flutter on tomorrows fights, who do you guys fancy?

The Freeman · 09-04-2011 12:36am

ShagNastii wrote: »

Might chance a flutter on tomorrows fights, who do you guys fancy?

Diaz by sub and Mousassi by TKO, also think Gilbet will get the win but not sure how.;)

mailburner · 09-04-2011 7:20pm

was planning to have a decent bet on diaz on melendez
which worked out at 11/10
however, greed has got the better of me and ive gone
this double which works out at 2.6/1.
can't wait for the diaz daley fight
only one winner there as far as i can see

Strikeforce Nick Diaz v Paul Daley
10-04-2011 02:00
Match Betting
Nick Diaz @ 4/9
Strikeforce Gilbert Melendez v Tatsuya Kawajiri
10-04-2011 02:00
Method of Victory
Gilbert Melendez on Points @ 3/2

welchy · 09-04-2011 8:34pm

Threw 2€ on Daley for the laugh. Its not impossible that he KO's Diaz, unlikely though

mailburner · 11-04-2011 2:53am

mailburner wrote: »

was planning to have a decent bet on diaz on melendez
which worked out at 11/10
however, greed has got the better of me and ive gone
this double which works out at 2.6/1.
can't wait for the diaz daley fight
only one winner there as far as i can see

Strikeforce Nick Diaz v Paul Daley
10-04-2011 02:00
Match Betting
Nick Diaz @ 4/9
Strikeforce Gilbert Melendez v Tatsuya Kawajiri
10-04-2011 02:00
Method of Victory
Gilbert Melendez on Points @ 3/2

greed got the better of me and i get nothing

Mellor · 11-04-2011 3:28am

mailburner wrote: »

don't forget to post your picks here next time
we might all make a few quid off you

A bit disappointed in the Jarine draw, especially as it was only a draw on 2 judges cards. If it wasn't for that point, or if only one more judge went with Mousasi I'd of been 4/4

Mellor wrote: »

Has any one seen this availible for betting on
Most palces only have the other 3 main fights

Also, should we not just make this a thread for the whole event.

Daley once again fights under a Zuffa promotion :eek:

Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley
Diaz easilys takes down and wins from the ground

Gilbert Melendez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Melendez wins this easily

Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine
I ahve no idea why Jarine is even here, purely as a token jestrue from zuffa. His final form in the UFC was poor, he didn't impress in the regional circut. Mousasi by TKO

Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm
Aoki by submission

mailburner · 29-04-2011 11:56am

fancy my chances of winning a few quid this weekend
no real money to be made backing gsp or aldo at 2/9

one decent bet on this double
can't see past this if im being honest

gsp by sub or points 4/5
machida by tko or points 4/7 (paddy)

ben henderson 8/11 looks value to me
am tempted to do him on points at 5/2 but
just a little worried he might submit bocek
so i probably won't get greedy this time

aldo for ko/tko looks a gift at 8/11 (paddy)
william hill go 4/7 on it

will probably double the above two also
and do an accum on the 4 mentioned

good luck folks

Mellor · 29-04-2011 4:18pm

My predictions are in main thread

mailburner · 30-04-2011 9:43pm

mailburner wrote: »

fancy my chances of winning a few quid this weekend
no real money to be made backing gsp or aldo at 2/9

one decent bet on this double
can't see past this if im being honest

gsp by sub or points 4/5
machida by tko or points 4/7 (paddy)

ben henderson 8/11 looks value to me
am tempted to do him on points at 5/2 but
just a little worried he might submit bocek
so i probably won't get greedy this time

aldo for ko/tko looks a gift at 8/11 (paddy)
william hill go 4/7 on it

will probably double the above two also
and do an accum on the 4 mentioned

good luck folks

ive settled on the first two mentioned in a double
did an accum on the four and ive just put one of
my biggest bets ever on aldo by ko/tko at 8/11

the more i think about it, the more i think it's more like
getting 8/11 on what i'd consider 1/2 or less
i really do feel its only a matter of collecting

mailburner · 01-05-2011 12:00pm

so close to a clean sweep

hominick must be made of steel
was sure the ref was stopping that one

barely breaking even after getting the double up and
if shields had somehow won, i'd have needed oxygen

Xlami · 01-05-2011 2:44pm

Very unlucky, shocked Hominick was allowed to continue but he showed great heart. DW praised the doctor in his interview with Ariel Hewaine.

Mellor · 02-05-2011 4:48am

Mellor wrote: »

UFC 129
not all fights cover here, but a decent run down of my thoughts

Predictions:

Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
Henderson coming off a lose against Pettis (the former WEC lightweight champ who lost his belt on the merger). But brought us that WTF moment when he ran up and jumped off the cage to deliver a head kick. Bocek had a recent lose to Jim Miller, but gave the younger of the UFC Siblings his toughest bout yet. It's very close, Bocek is a BJJ blackbelt, with a Blackbelt in Karate, Henderson is a BJJ brown belt with a blackbelt in TKD. It's clsoe but I think this one stays standing and Henderson's striking is best.
Henderson by decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
Looking forward to this one the most. Randy is a hero. Lyoto went from being my favourite fighter to one of my most disliked. He initially was excellant, elusive, great strikes and never got hit. Then he won the belt and he became boring. Shogun ripped him apart and he was never the same. He is on a 2 (well really 3) fight losing streak and needs to win this to stay near the top of the division (or even in the UFC). For Randy, he has nothing to win or lose and he'll still leave it all out there.
Randy fights best as a dirty boxer. Clinch, and control against the cage. A polar opposite to the pounce, strike, evade tactics of "The Dragon". Machida has shown he can hold his own agaisnt powerful fighters like Rampage and I expect him to take the win here. I can't see him leaving it in the hands of the Judges seeing as his two most recent decisions (Shogun & Rampage) were questioned by more than a few people.
Machida by TKO in the 3rd

Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Mark Hominick
Jose Aldo finally makes his UFC debut. The UFC worlds is about to see what the MMA world has known for a long time. Aldo is top 3 pound for pound in the world. Unbelievably fast. Unreal striking. And, similar to Anderson Silva, a BJJ black belt that rarely chooses to use these skills. He crippled Faber with leg kicks. I except him to do the same to Hominick, who has left them unchecked before. Follow up with a big head kick, or flying knee to drop him, finishing it on the ground.
Aldo by TKO in the 2nd or 3rd

Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Jake Shields
Jake Shields has a much better chance of winning than the odds suggest. He has unreal BJJ. Or rather American JJ as he refers to it as. GSP is also a black belt, but this is a situation where not all black belts are equal. Their wrestling is probably near equal - Shields is better at dominating on the ground. George has better takedown defence. However, GSP is better everywhere else, faster and definitely has better cardio/stamina.
It terms of striking, GSP is clinical. His double jab ripped Koschek apart. And is well able to throw a head kick. Shields is clunky on his feet, not really looking comfortable striking. He throws look kicks at will, due to a lack of fear of being put on his back.
If shields wants to win, he needs a sub in the first two rounds imo.
I expect GSP to push the pace early, but keep his distance and importantly, keep it standing.
Weighing up everything. I expect GSP to win by 4th or 5th round TKO or decision

4/4 in match betting
The good run continues

mailburner · 02-05-2011 12:42pm

it was fairly easy to pick the winners of these bouts especially
machida, gsp and aldo who were long odds on
it was hard to make a case for their opponents with
maybe shields being the exception for a lot of people.
henderson was the value call at 8/11

rory mac donald was one that got away in fairness at 5/6
should have been shorter after his fight with condit

Denners.ie · 27-05-2011 9:51pm

I think Kendall Grove is value tomorrow at 8/13. I don't like betting on guys that have various flaws but I can't see Boetsch troubling him tbh.

SDTimeout · 28-05-2011 9:58pm

McDonald FOTN 12/1

Think it has an outside chance, the dude is one of the most exciting prospects in the UFC at the moment.

mailburner · 28-05-2011 10:12pm

went for brian stann last weekend at 5/6
wished id taken the evens available a few weeks back
could see him knocking out santiago

and stuck him in a double with roy nelson at evens
great price imo for a man who went three round with jds
its possible mir might win a decision but i dont see him
winning by any other method and even if mir stands
with nelson for three i still think nelson will come out tops

also stuck a few euro on
stann, nelson, ramapge by ko at 25s (will hill)
unlikely maybe but its still a generous price imo http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/2063487/UFC-130---KO-Special.html

if rampage cant beat hamill ill be amazed

struve looks a big price at 6/5 to beat travis browne
possible fotn contender imo but thats a market i avoid
like the plague as its impossible to predict imo

might mouse v torres another one i cant wait for
surely a great fight by decision either way
cant call it

SDTimeout · 28-05-2011 10:20pm

Another bed on the McDonald fight. Really think he is going to win here tonight and by a stoppage of some form. ONLY gripe is that he took this fight while prepping for one in August. Might be too much for the 19 year old. Time will tell.

To win in RD 1 2 or 3 spread over odds of 3/1 7/2 and 6/1

mailburner · 04-06-2011 10:52pm

gone for a treble tonight of

grispi 2/9
pettis 4/9
credeur 5/6

grispi only needs to show up to win this one
roop will probably be cut after losing this one

can't see anything but a pettis win v guida

credeur is evens with boyles
that looks like great value to me

mailburner · 05-06-2011 1:34am

mailburner wrote: »

gone for a treble tonight of

grispi 2/9
pettis 4/9
credeur 5/6

grispi only needs to show up to win this one
roop will probably be cut after losing this one

can't see anything but a pettis win v guida

credeur is evens with boyles
that looks like great value to me

talk about underestimating roop or maybe thinking
grispi was better than that :eek:

gone for the pettis credeur double to salvage my night

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Comments

UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING