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Property Market 2019

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    #2312
    SirGerryAdams
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 499 ✭✭SirGerryAdams


    The fed are going to cut next month probably themsleves.

    It's actually rather serious that the strong economy of the US would need a cut. A sure fire sign things are not right.


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    #2313
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    SirGerryAdams wrote: »
    The fed are going to cut next month probably themsleves.

    It's actually rather serious that the strong economy of the US would need a cut. A sure fire sign things are not right.


    When the Fed increased rates last year , it triggered precipitous market falls , the system cannot survive without QE and zero interest rates , it will end badly .


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    #2314
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It's actually frightening that the ECB is increasing stimulus shortly.

    It's been keeping things barely growing in the Eurozone for a decade, much of which saw massive and sustained global growth after the crash in 2007_8.

    Near flat out to tread water in the good times and facing a global slowdown now.

    A mild global recession will hit Europe hard.

    The overall Eurozone economy is smaller now that at the time of the crash, about 10% smaller iirc.


    The US economy is about 50% bigger.

    Our economy is aligned differently than most of the EU, as we all know, more reliant on non Euro State trade than most others.

    Looking at 5 year forward inflation, markets are pricing in deflation in Europe.


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    #2315
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,098 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Zenify wrote: »
    The prices are rising according to the CSO for Dublin based on the year. The last few months saw the prices decline. However, in the latest CSO report I didn't see it broken down by month.

    Dublin peaked in November and has dropped 3% since then. It has dropped month on month except for April which showed no change. The year on year Dublin increase (April to April) is 0.4%. If the index level remains unchanged for the May figures it will flip to an annual decline which would be the first annual Dublin drop since late 2012.


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    #2316
    FutureGuy
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,227 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    SirGerryAdams wrote: »
    The fed are going to cut next month probably themsleves.

    It's actually rather serious that the strong economy of the US would need a cut. A sure fire sign things are not right.
    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    When the Fed increased rates last year , it triggered precipitous market falls , the system cannot survive without QE and zero interest rates , it will end badly .
    Danzy wrote: »
    It's actually frightening that the ECB is increasing stimulus shortly.

    It's been keeping things barely growing in the Eurozone for a decade, much of which saw massive and sustained global growth after the crash in 2007_8.

    Near flat out to tread water in the good times and facing a global slowdown now.

    A mild global recession will hit Europe hard.

    The overall Eurozone economy is smaller now that at the time of the crash, about 10% smaller iirc.


    The US economy is about 50% bigger.

    Our economy is aligned differently than most of the EU, as we all know, more reliant on non Euro State trade than most others.

    Looking at 5 year forward inflation, markets are pricing in deflation in Europe.

    Sorry, for the layman here, what does that mean for property in Ireland?


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    #2317
    Jaster Rogue
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭Jaster Rogue


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Sorry, for the layman here, what does that mean for property in Ireland?


    Well from reading this forum lately, what everyone seems to be hoping for is this will result in a massive crash in property prices with every other aspect of the economy unaffected (interest rates, employment levels, tax bands, salaries, etc) so they can proclaim their title as experts in markets and economics, and snap up that 4 bed Victorian property in Clontarf for €100k, and maybe a few Docklands apartments for €50k each to add to their investment portfolio.


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    #2318
    voluntary
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Sorry, for the layman here, what does that mean for property in Ireland?

    This depends.
    The rates are coming down as the risk of recession has increased. If we have a recession then the property and stock prices will dive.

    However, if we escape a recession, the lower rates should bring cheaper mortgages and add some liquidity to the markets.

    Lower rates may also help the markets recover, so if you forsee a downturn, the lower rates may possibly prevent it.

    Lower rates is a response to slowing down economy. Slowing down economy is bad for most assets prices, including property. Lower rates is good for most assets prices, including property.


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    #2319
    SirGerryAdams
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 499 ✭✭SirGerryAdams


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Sorry, for the layman here, what does that mean for property in Ireland?

    I would say economic factors have a big impact on property.

    Just like Brexit has been talked about here.


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    #2320
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Sorry, for the layman here, what does that mean for property in Ireland?

    Deflation is the opposite of Inflation, so instead of debt reducing in value over time, it grows I value.

    A euro next month will buy more than this month.

    While that may seem positive, it means debt become a growing burden while paying it off and you'll get less for making something today when you sell it next month.

    It is the holy grail of cluster fuc economics. No growth as the good times and shrinking in the bad times.8

    Japan has had it for 20 years, I doubt democracy would survive in all parts of Europe after 20 years of deflation. Even after 5 in some parts.

    The risk of deflation is small, not insignificant but that it is there at all is a massive issue.

    One route to beat it is mass creation of money by the central back, lowering interest rates further, negative already.

    The Ecb is effectively paying banks to borrow from it for lending and planning to pay more for that privilege.

    Will drive asset prices but for how long can that bizarre circus continue.

    After 7 years of global boom, the EU is having to resort to that, what will it do in a recession?


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    #2321
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Jaster Rogue wrote: »
    Well from reading this forum lately, what everyone seems to be hoping for is this will result in a massive crash in property prices with every other aspect of the economy unaffected (interest rates, employment levels, tax bands, salaries, etc) so they can proclaim their title as experts in markets and economics, and snap up that 4 bed Victorian property in Clontarf for €100k, and maybe a few Docklands apartments for €50k each to add to their investment portfolio.

    There are a select few posters here who are suggesting that price falls will happen and are to be cheered. In general- they want to buy- and would rather buy at considerably less than current prices.

    National prices increases- have slowed to perhaps 3%- however, this masks massive divergences between Dublin and a select number of other urban conurbations- and the rest of the country.

    A slow stagnation- or slow falls over a protracted period of time- would appear to be more likely than any large price falls.

    An interesting stat out today- shows that Irish wage growth has slowed right down- and where it was motoring ahead of most other European countries- its now slowed to an annualised rate of less than 3%. I'm not sure who those are that are getting a 3% salary rise- I know I'm not.........

    A lot of the increases in Irish prices- were on the premise that Irish wages growth was powering ahead- well, thats hit the brakes too.........

    These type stats are worrying in nature- but as they're still in positive territory, I'd not suggest that they are predicators of a a cliff edge for Irish property prices, rather, I'd subscribe to the theory of a stagnation happening.


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    #2322
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Jaster Rogue wrote: »
    Well from reading this forum lately, what everyone seems to be hoping for is this will result in a massive crash in property prices with every other aspect of the economy unaffected (interest rates, employment levels, tax bands, salaries, etc) so they can proclaim their title as experts in markets and economics, and snap up that 4 bed Victorian property in Clontarf for €100k, and maybe a few Docklands apartments for €50k each to add to their investment portfolio.

    There are bigger things than the property market in Ireland.

    The ECB lending money at negative Interest rates and at about 1/6th of the interest of America is a big issue.

    I think the outcome will see Europe much reduced economically through devaluing the currency, people's houses protected by making the value of debt smaller by making the value of money smaller.

    It may well shore up asset prices like it did over the last decade


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    #2323
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Where do people now see the market for first time buyers? Up until maybe six months ago, in Dublin, the first time buyers bubble was under the €500k mark (based on anecdotal evidence e.g. Friends attending viewings and seeing no young couples at houses over €500k).

    It appeared that anything above that price had a limited pool of buyers and therefore was not selling. I'm guessing the prices above that mark will continue to correct themselves for the foreseeable future as the longer the status quo maintains, the less likely that first time buyers will in future be able to pay much over €500k. I mentioned this before in these threads but there are two houses currently for sale around my parents' area for €1.3-1.6m and haven't moved, going on several months now. Viewings, I understand, weren't well attended too (South Dublin area).


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    #2324
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    When the Fed increased rates last year , it triggered precipitous market falls , the system cannot survive without QE and zero interest rates , it will end badly .

    It will end in a bond market crash, we have had a near forty year bond market bull market, if you put 10 k in German ten year government debt today, you would get back less than you put in on 2029


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    #2325
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,365 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Where do people now see the market for first time buyers? Up until maybe six months ago, in Dublin, the first time buyers bubble was under the €500k mark (based on anecdotal evidence e.g. Friends attending viewings and seeing no young couples at houses over €500k).

    It appeared that anything above that price had a limited pool of buyers and therefore was not selling. I'm guessing the prices above that mark will continue to correct themselves for the foreseeable future as the longer the status quo maintains, the less likely that first time buyers will in future be able to pay much over €500k. I mentioned this before in these threads but there are two houses currently for sale around my parents' area for €1.3-1.6m and haven't moved, going on several months now. Viewings, I understand, weren't well attended too (South Dublin area).

    The help to buy makes anything over 500k pretty unattractive to FTBs.


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    #2326
    Bigmac1euro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,455 ✭✭✭Bigmac1euro


    Jaster Rogue wrote: »
    Well from reading this forum lately, what everyone seems to be hoping for is this will result in a massive crash in property prices with every other aspect of the economy unaffected (interest rates, employment levels, tax bands, salaries, etc) so they can proclaim their title as experts in markets and economics, and snap up that 4 bed Victorian property in Clontarf for €100k, and maybe a few Docklands apartments for €50k each to add to their investment portfolio.

    Hahahahaha! That’s some nonsense you just typed up. Have you been burnt in the past or something ?


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    #2327
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Jaster Rogue wrote: »
    Well from reading this forum lately, what everyone seems to be hoping for is this will result in a massive crash in property prices with every other aspect of the economy unaffected (interest rates, employment levels, tax bands, salaries, etc) so they can proclaim their title as experts in markets and economics, and snap up that 4 bed Victorian property in Clontarf for €100k, and maybe a few Docklands apartments for €50k each to add to their investment portfolio.

    Nah we just don't want to get up to our necks in debt unnecessarily.


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    #2328
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Bigmac1euro wrote: »
    Hahahahaha! That’s some nonsense you just typed up. Have you been burnt in the past or something ?

    He sounds like a coked up FF cllr from 2006.


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    #2329
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    FutureGuy wrote: »
    Sorry, for the layman here, what does that mean for property in Ireland?

    It means that the first world economies cannot function normally , property prices in Ireland are backed up ultimately by the Fed and the ECB who are struggling to maintain equilibrium and this is showing in a tailing off of prices .


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    #2330
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    It means that the first world economies cannot function normally , property prices in Ireland are backed up ultimately by the Fed and the ECB who are struggling to maintain equilibrium and this is showing in a tailing off of prices .

    Fed and the ECB has been like that for a long time. All while prices rose. So they can't be whats capping prices.

    Seems like the market has slowed as it reached people maximum borrowing limits. Previously these limits were ignored (by the banks and borrowers) which put many people in difficulty when it crashed.


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    #2331
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    The FED and the ECB are backing off interest rate increases due to weakness in the global economy. Ironically, this measure while simulative in nature also increases consumer worry long term drawing more money out of the economy.

    While locally we might have also reached a price ceiling there are bigger worries out there. A slowing global economy and the threat of Brexit loom large.

    I'm no economist and the situation may run away as is, but all it takes is sentiment to shift.


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    #2332
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    The FED and the ECB are backing off interest rate increases due to weakness in the global economy. Ironically, this measure while simulative in nature also increases consumer worry long term drawing more money out of the economy.

    I'd say most consumers will be completely oblivious to it.

    A good percentage of those that even spot the change would consider lower interest rates to be a good thing.


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    #2333
    Compak
    Registered Users Posts: 428 ✭✭Compak


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    The FED and the ECB are backing off interest rate increases due to weakness in the global economy. Ironically, this measure while simulative in nature also increases consumer worry long term drawing more money out of the economy.

    While locally we might have also reached a price ceiling there are bigger worries out there. A slowing global economy and the threat of Brexit loom large.

    I'm no economist and the situation may run away as is, but all it takes is sentiment to shift.

    Which if the Irish Banks were properly controlled by the government would mean mortgage rates should be dropping and make this action by the central banks a very attractive reason to get a fixed mortgage in this climate.

    Weakness is 'relative' for economy, just look at US GDP and Employment, the Fed are all more a hostage of the equity and bond markets

    Edit: And being coerced by Trump and being forced to act based on his on and off again Trade War.


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    #2334
    Compak
    Registered Users Posts: 428 ✭✭Compak


    Graham wrote: »
    I'd say most consumers will be completely oblivious to it.

    A good percentage of those that even spot the change would consider lower interest rates to be a good thing.

    They would be in any other country where you can draw down an under 2% mortgage.

    People love to be pessimistic.

    Will everyone be happy if ECB says climate right for a 3% interest rate then?


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    #2335
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Compak wrote: »
    Will everyone be happy if ECB says climate right for a 3% interest rate then?

    Most won't even notice unless their mortgage/loan repayments increase or there's a sudden burst of media activity suggesting their mortgage/loan repayments will increase.


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    #2336
    Compak
    Registered Users Posts: 428 ✭✭Compak


    Graham wrote: »
    Most won't even notice unless their mortgage/loan repayments increase or there's a sudden burst of media activity suggesting their mortgage/loan repayments will increase.

    The banks are like the petrol pumps, many excuses not to drop the prices when market rate falls but always have them up the next day when they rise.

    If ECB goes from essentially 0 to a 3% climate, every single (non-fixed) mortgage payer will know it and then some.


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    #2337
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Unless you are an investor with deep pockets. Most people will buy property when they need and and when they can. They won't wait 5yrs for the market to fall, they won't put their life on hold waiting to play property investor. Most People might delay a few years at most. Not enough to make a significant difference. Unless there are huge changes globally I don't think most people are tracking whats happening internationally. Maybe I'm wrong.

    People on these forums, are generally people planning to buy. So they are much more aware even overly sensitive to external events.


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    #2338
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Compak wrote: »

    Will everyone be happy if ECB says climate right for a 3% interest rate then?

    It would be a healthier situation than now.

    However the lunacy of the ECB over the last 20 years, means it would be a disaster for people with loans.

    It would be a sign that the Eurozone had a properly functioning and well performing economy though.


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    #2339
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    beauf wrote: »
    Unless you are an investor with deep pockets. Most people will buy property when they need and and when they can. They won't wait 5yrs for the market to fall, they won't put their life on hold waiting to play property investor. Most People might delay a few years at most. Not enough to make a significant difference. Unless there are huge changes globally I don't think most people are tracking whats happening internationally. Maybe I'm wrong.

    People on these forums, are generally people planning to buy. So they are much more aware even overly sensitive to external events.

    No, these things should not prevent people from buying, if they have to they have to.

    Do the usual due diligence.


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    #2340
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Compak wrote: »
    Which if the Irish Banks were properly controlled by the government would mean mortgage rates should be dropping and make this action by the central banks a very attractive reason to get a fixed mortgage in this climate.

    Weakness is 'relative' for economy, just look at US GDP and Employment, the Fed are all more a hostage of the equity and bond markets.

    The US economy is much stronger, it's inflation is moving on but not high decent growth, very low unemployment.

    Certainly not without its problems but I can't see the Eurozone seeing growth like that in the next decade.


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    #2341
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    beauf wrote: »
    Fed and the ECB has been like that for a long time. All while prices rose. So they can't be whats capping prices.

    Seems like the market has slowed as it reached people maximum borrowing limits. Previously these limits were ignored (by the banks and borrowers) which put many people in difficulty when it crashed.

    There is a correlation there on price caps ok, but this is possibly too simple an explanation , big US money is backstopping Irish property prices and the Fed has been attempting to raise rates thus slowing their liquidity.


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