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Property Market 2020

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    #2012
    randoplh134
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    It's amazing to what lengths humans will complicate their lives and find a way to rationalize it.

    I know a couple who are mortgaged to the tilt and are after going sale agreed on a mediocre property for 420k, asking was 440k. They have very little deposit and both work in jobs that are not safe ( infact the woman has already had her hours cut back due to this situation ). Their excuse is they are paying 1100e per month in rent for a 1 bed apartment and the mortgage on the 3 bed house will " only " be 1400 per month and they expect to start a family in 5 years time.

    Amazing, what they fail to realize is this house was put up for sale 3 weeks ago and they already got it for 20k under asking, can you imagine what price reductions they will get if they wait a mere 6-12 months.

    I hear the excuse of "oh rents are high right now, we are being ripped off etc " . What people fail to realize is that rents are short term, a mortgage is often a life sentence.

    Property prices will tank very soon and so too will rents, the rent you are paying now is not forever. The money you save waiting to buy and end up getting a bargain will stand you in good stead for the rest of your life.

    Think long term


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    #2013
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    smurgen wrote: »
    Medical devices are way down as surgery is way down.Stryker the biggest here in cork is down share price wise in a dramatic fashion.almost 14% alone last Friday.

    The bulk of stocks are dropping 10% every other day since February


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    #2014
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,434 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    It's amazing to what lengths humans will complicate their lives and find a way to rationalize it.

    I know a couple who are mortgaged to the tilt and are after going sale agreed on a mediocre property for 420k, asking was 440k. They have very little deposit and both work in jobs that are not safe ( infact the woman has already had her hours cut back due to this situation ). Their excuse is they are paying 1100e per month in rent for a 1 bed apartment and the mortgage on the 3 bed house will " only " be 1400 per month and they expect to start a family in 5 years time.

    Amazing, what they fail to realize is this house was put up for sale 3 weeks ago and they already got it for 20k under asking, can you imagine what price reductions they will get if they wait a mere 6-12 months.

    I hear the excuse of "oh rents are high right now, we are being ripped off etc " . What people fail to realize is that rents are short term, a mortgage is often a life sentence.

    Property prices will tank very soon and so too will rents, the rent you are paying now is not forever. The money you save waiting to buy and end up getting a bargain will stand you in good stead for the rest of your life.

    Think long term

    If their jobs are as unsafe and shaky as you suggest then there's a high chance they'll end up unable to get a mortgage in future in the event of prices and the economy tanking.

    So yea, think long term, and realise that waiting is not without risks, you could end up waiting a long time.


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    #2015
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    It's amazing to what lengths humans will complicate their lives and find a way to rationalize it.

    I know a couple who are mortgaged to the tilt and are after going sale agreed on a mediocre property for 420k, asking was 440k. They have very little deposit and both work in jobs that are not safe ( infact the woman has already had her hours cut back due to this situation ). Their excuse is they are paying 1100e per month in rent for a 1 bed apartment and the mortgage on the 3 bed house will " only " be 1400 per month and they expect to start a family in 5 years time.

    Amazing, what they fail to realize is this house was put up for sale 3 weeks ago and they already got it for 20k under asking, can you imagine what price reductions they will get if they wait a mere 6-12 months.

    I hear the excuse of "oh rents are high right now, we are being ripped off etc " . What people fail to realize is that rents are short term, a mortgage is often a life sentence.

    Property prices will tank very soon and so too will rents, the rent you are paying now is not forever. The money you save waiting to buy and end up getting a bargain will stand you in good stead for the rest of your life.

    Think long term

    Can you not also appreciate that if the economy tanks that people like the above won't be able to get any mortgage, no matter what "bargains" are out there?

    You have to be awfully unlucky to get your PPR repossessed in Ireland, you do not have to be particularly unlucky to get evicted from rented accommodation.

    Also, if theyre only sale agreed, changes are the bank will pull their approval before this goes through as there has already been a change in circumstances by one person getting their working hours cut back.


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    #2016
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,981 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Reversal wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/trump-stance-on-pharmaceutical-production-could-hit-ireland-1.4205295

    Uh oh.

    Trump using the crisis as a catalyst to pull pharmaceutical industries back to the states.

    Takes a long time to move or create a industrial factory, staff it etc. He is just saying whatever is a fox news talking point at the time.

    At worst, the repulications will give tax breaks to american companies to move manufacturing back home. And they will use that money to pretend to do so, before moving it to APJ/south America.


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    #2017
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    Takes a long time to move or create a industrial factory, staff it etc. He is just saying whatever is a fox news talking point at the time.

    At worst, the repulications will give tax breaks to american companies to move manufacturing back home. And they will use that money to pretend to do so, before moving it to APJ/south America.

    Maybe given that the length of time they are established here we would have talent in place in the likes of R@D staff expertise etc to do it ourselves.

    When the dust settles on all of this its going to highlight how vunerable we are in all sectors to global shocks bar maybe food production.


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    #2018
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,843 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Ireland doesn't operate like most countries, you wont get more security here than a mortgage, the court wont throw any one out and if they do, it takes years and you can not pay in that time...


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    #2019
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Oof, WeWork, one of the largest tenants in the State, at risk of bankruptcy;

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/softbank-warns-it-could-back-out-of-wework-stock-deal-1.4205737?mode=amp

    In addition, connected to the recent run on the Aviva property fund where redemption requests lead to the fund being closed, they are now looking to sell some commercial property to meet redemptions;

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aviva-set-to-market-prime-headquarter-office-at-elmpark-green-for-28m-1.4205105?mode=amp

    It must be remembered that the biggest losers from any fallout in the Irish property market were always going to be the overseas, institutional investors. The prudence of FG in this regard, although politically unpopular, will show as these entities end up getting burned more than the Irish people themselves.


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    #2020
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    can you imagine what price reductions they will get if they wait a mere 6-12 months.

    Nobody has any idea what property prices will be like in a month, never mind 12 months.

    Nobody has any idea what finance will be available over the same period.


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    #2021
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    I'd say it will be more likely a situation that housing transactions will grind to a halt in about 6 months.


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    #2022
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Is it just me or does it feel like, today, that the initial panic of COVID19 is over? Working from home was a novelty prior to Paddy's Day and now it feels like we are just going to get on with things. Leo's speech last night spoke about the "calm before the storm" thus far. However, he also said that the "vast majority" of us will barely notice the virus in our system. This "vast majority" section of the population are those that are still working and keeping the economy going so can get back to normal at the drop of a hat.

    As such, as noted above, residential property transactions may grind to a halt for the next while, but, given the nature of the pandemic, it is likely we will be through the worst of it in 2/3 months and then people should be able to start getting back to normal - and will get back to normal very quickly once the green light is given.


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    #2023
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,981 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Oof, WeWork, one of the largest tenants in the State, at risk of bankruptcy;

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/softbank-warns-it-could-back-out-of-wework-stock-deal-1.4205737?mode=amp

    WeWork have been in the ****ter for a while now, this is just the kick over the edge for them.


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    #2024
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    The damage was done to WeWork by their former CEO and his wife.


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    #2025
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Is it just me or does it feel like, today, that the initial panic of COVID19 is over? Working from home was a novelty prior to Paddy's Day and now it feels like we are just going to get on with things. Leo's speech last night spoke about the "calm before the storm" thus far. However, he also said that the "vast majority" of us will barely notice the virus in our system. This "vast majority" section of the population are those that are still working and keeping the economy going so can get back to normal at the drop of a hat.

    As such, as noted above, residential property transactions may grind to a halt for the next while, but, given the nature of the pandemic, it is likely we will be through the worst of it in 2/3 months and then people should be able to start getting back to normal - and will get back to normal very quickly once the green light is given.

    No chance this is only 2/3 months.

    Plus the whole service industry has collapsed.

    I was supposed to get a new kitchen but I ran the tradesmen. Told them I will be getting it done for 50%
    less down the line.


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    #2026
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Is it just me or does it feel like, today, that the initial panic of COVID19 is over? Working from home was a novelty prior to Paddy's Day and now it feels like we are just going to get on with things. Leo's speech last night spoke about the "calm before the storm" thus far. However, he also said that the "vast majority" of us will barely notice the virus in our system. This "vast majority" section of the population are those that are still working and keeping the economy going so can get back to normal at the drop of a hat.

    As such, as noted above, residential property transactions may grind to a halt for the next while, but, given the nature of the pandemic, it is likely we will be through the worst of it in 2/3 months and then people should be able to start getting back to normal - and will get back to normal very quickly once the green light is given.

    I believe it depends on what support measures for Businesses are given and the speed that it is delivered.

    If done properly and with speed, then a few months of disruption and then back to normal or as close to it as possible.

    Lessons will be learned and hopefully a proper plan put in place for the next one which maybe as soon as next winter.

    However, if the ECB make a mess of it then who knows how bad the damage will be.

    ECB's Lagarde is not inspiring much confidence.


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    #2027
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,434 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    landofthetree wrote: »
    No chance this is only 2/3 months.

    Plus the whole service industry has collapsed.

    I was supposed to get a new kitchen but I ran the tradesmen. Told them I will be getting it done for 50%
    less down the line.

    Lol I bet you did.


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    #2028
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    WeWork have been in the ****ter for a while now, this is just the kick over the edge for them.

    Also, WeWork have 5 locations in Dublin, they're not structurally important to Ireland or even Dublin for that matter.

    Theres a podcast about their rise and fall called WeCrashed by Wondry -its an interesting story, and it suffices to say they have not been in great shape for some time.


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    #2029
    randoplh134
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    awec wrote: »
    If their jobs are as unsafe and shaky as you suggest then there's a high chance they'll end up unable to get a mortgage in future in the event of prices and the economy tanking.

    So yea, think long term, and realise that waiting is not without risks, you could end up waiting a long time.

    LOL so to prevent waiting a long time it would be more logical to buy a property which is highly over valued and will drop in price soon along with signing up to a 35year mortgage at 1400 per month with no money for furniture,no emergency cash and a high likelihood of being unemployed soon?

    Based on your rationale, i certainly wouldn't hire you as a financial advisor.

    It's this mindset of entitlement to a property in this country that has us in dire straits ( before this virus ). People need to delay gratification and purchase a property WHEN they can afford it.


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    #2030
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    WeWork have been in the ****ter for a while now, this is just the kick over the edge for them.

    Also, WeWork have 5 locations in Dublin, they're not structurally important to Ireland or even Dublin for that matter.

    Theres a podcast about their rise and fall called WeCrashed by Wondry -its an interesting story, and it suffices to say they have not been in great shape for some time.


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    #2031
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,434 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    LOL so to prevent waiting a long time it would be more logical to buy a property which is highly over valued and will drop in price soon along with signing up to a 35year mortgage at 1400 per month with no money for furniture,no emergency cash and a high likelihood of being unemployed soon?

    Based on your rationale, i certainly wouldn't hire you as a financial advisor.

    It's this mindset of entitlement to a property in this country that has us in dire straits ( before this virus ). People need to delay gratification and purchase a property WHEN they can afford it.

    Your argument was that if they just waited, they would pick up a bargain.

    I was merely pointing out why your argument was nonsense.

    If they're going to be losing their jobs, like you suggest, and they have a family, then owning a property will bring them more security than any other option. Yes, they may be overpaying, but they'll have a home.

    The alternative for them is they wait, they lose their jobs, they can't pay rent, they can't get a mortgage, they end up living in grandparents or worse and everyone's life is total misery.

    As is always the case, the winners in the case of a collapse will be cash buyers. If you're going to be talking to a bank yes you can wait, but it's not as straightforward a decision, nor as low risk, as you are making out.


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    #2032
    randoplh134
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    awec wrote: »
    Your argument was that if they just waited, they would pick up a bargain.

    I was merely pointing out why your argument was nonsense.

    If they're going to be losing their jobs, like you suggest, and they have a family, then owning a property will bring them more security than any other option. Yes, they may be overpaying, but they'll have a home.

    I've stated many times throughout the thread that if someone has a steady job they should wait it out and pick up a bargain when this house of cards fall.

    They plan to start a family in 5 years. Imo they should not sign up to a lifetime of debt they can't afford for highly over valued stock which will fall soon.


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    #2033
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,434 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    I've stated many times throughout the thread that if someone has a steady job they should wait it out and pick up a bargain when this house of cards fall.

    They plan to start a family in 5 years. Imo they should not sign up to a lifetime of debt they can't afford for highly over valued stock which will fall soon.

    They have steady jobs now?

    It's hard to keep up with these moving goalposts.


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    #2034
    randoplh134
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    Just to test the waters on what kind of financial situation the buyers who are not waiting it out and want to proceed and buy now are in, what is your mortgage going to work out at per month ?

    Anything above 1000e pm month for 30-35 years is too high imo and you would be better off waiting. If it's <1000 and it's going to be a forever home you may be making an ok decision.


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    #2035
    thomasdylan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 514 ✭✭✭thomasdylan


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    Just to test the waters on what kind of financial situation the buyers who are not waiting it out and want to proceed and buy now are in, what is your mortgage going to work out at per month ?

    Anything above 1000e pm month for 30-35 years is too high imo and you would be better off waiting. If it's <1000 and it's going to be a forever home you may be making an ok decision.

    Mortgage as a percentage of take home pay is more important. Our mortgage is 1700, our rent was 1900 in the same area of Dublin.


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    #2036
    randoplh134
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    awec wrote: »
    They have steady jobs now?

    It's hard to keep up with these moving goalposts.

    Nitpicking again as usual.

    I've stated many times people with steady jobs should wait it out and pick up a bargain and those without steady jobs who are maxing out lending wise should not take on a lifetime of debt for overly priced stock, they should focus on getting themselves into a better long term financial position and/or lower their exceptions on the property they are purchasing.


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    #2037
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    Just to test the waters on what kind of financial situation the buyers who are not waiting it out and want to proceed and buy now are in, what is your mortgage going to work out at per month ?

    Anything above 1000e pm month for 30-35 years is too high imo and you would be better off waiting. If it's <1000 and it's going to be a forever home you may be making an ok decision.

    I called my EA last week and put my sale on pause. There's no harm in waiting a month or two to see how things lie.

    In fairness I haven't told the solicitor, since that side takes months anyways, but I plan on renegociating if the property market turns.


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    #2038
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    Just to test the waters on what kind of financial situation the buyers who are not waiting it out and want to proceed and buy now are in, what is your mortgage going to work out at per month ?

    Anything above 1000e pm month for 30-35 years is too high imo and you would be better off waiting. If it's <1000 and it's going to be a forever home you may be making an ok decision.

    This will depend entirely on someone's unique set of circumstances.
    You may consider a mortgage repayment of >1000 a month to be unsustainable long term- however, if that person is currently paying twice that in rent (which wouldn't be unusual in Dublin)- it may represent a significant improvement in their current financial well being.

    Yes- a thousand a month (or more) sounds like a lot of money- however, its not a blanket statement that can be applied across the board.


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    #2039
    nhoj88
    Registered Users Posts: 40 ✭nhoj88


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    I called my EA last week and put my sale on pause. There's no harm in waiting a month or two to see how things lie.

    In fairness I haven't told the solicitor, since that side takes months anyways, but I plan on renegociating if the property market turns.

    Are you buying or selling?

    "I called my EA last week and put my sale on pause. There's no harm in waiting a month or two to see how things lie." Sounds like a seller

    "In fairness I haven't told the solicitor, since that side takes months anyways, but I plan on renegociating if the property market turns." Sounds like a buyer


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    #2040
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    randoplh134 wrote: »
    Just to test the waters on what kind of financial situation the buyers who are not waiting it out and want to proceed and buy now are in, what is your mortgage going to work out at per month ?

    Anything above 1000e pm month for 30-35 years is too high imo and you would be better off waiting. If it's <1000 and it's going to be a forever home you may be making an ok decision.

    What is the point of such an arbitrary figure? Surely its all relative to a persons means, need and local factors in the area they want to live in.


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    #2041
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    nhoj88 wrote: »
    Are you buying or selling?

    "I called my EA last week and put my sale on pause. There's no harm in waiting a month or two to see how things lie." Sounds like a seller

    "In fairness I haven't told the solicitor, since that side takes months anyways, but I plan on renegociating if the property market turns." Sounds like a buyer

    Whole thing sounds like a spoofer?


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