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How long will Boris be Prime Minister of Great Britain?

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    #32
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    jimmycrackcorm wrote: »
    Regardless if the UK leaves or extends, Boris or another, the Tory leader won't last much longer than October 31st.

    Nobody will be happy with the outcome

    It depends. If Jezza is the alternative then I'm not sure Labour won't self-combust either and UK election system doesn't offer many options.


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    #33
    Odhinn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,976 ✭✭✭Odhinn


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Where is the 'approximately never' option? The slobbering dunce hasn't a snowball's chance in hell.




    That's what I thought, so I looked at the odds
    https://www.paddypower.com/politics


    He's 8/13 on vs the nearest competitor (Jeremy Hunt) at 7/1.


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    #34
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    If he goes for it, it seems pretty likely the Tories will give it to him. Problem is that he is personally sheltered from any fallout, financially. So as long as the DUP and the Tories stick by him, he can bull on with whatever plans he likes.

    So how long he remains in office depends on how long it takes for enough Tories to abandon him that a general election is called. This is the politics that we've been watching for the last two years; stay the course at all costs, don't give up, never second-guess. If the Tories allow him, he will drag the entire country wailing into a no-deal Brexit because he's too stupid and disconnected to understand why it's such a bad idea.


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    #35
    munchkin_utd
    Registered Users Posts: 7,834 ✭✭✭munchkin_utd


    the first step would be to create a country called Great Britain, probably covering the territory of the island of Great Britain, and then maybe come back and ask if Boris will be leader of this country which doesnt exist.

    For the UK - United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - to become just "Great Britain", you'd need Northern Ireland to leave, which isnt happening any time soon to be honest.


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    #36
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,481 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Odhinn wrote: »
    That's what I thought, so I looked at the odds
    https://www.paddypower.com/politics


    He's 8/13 on vs the nearest competitor (Jeremy Hunt) at 7/1.

    I had the same thought process, and was shocked how far ahead the bookies have him


    Grim thought if you're a voter in the UK - potential choice between Boris or Corbyn in the next election.


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    #37
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Odhinn wrote: »
    That's what I thought, so I looked at the odds
    https://www.paddypower.com/politics

    He's 8/13 on vs the nearest competitor (Jeremy Hunt) at 7/1.

    Generally even shorter than that, he's 8/15 currently (i.e. @1.53).
    Put 10 notes on him, and get a net profit of just 5.30.

    But averaging 1.44-1.5 elsewhere.
    Was sitting on evens for most of the last few months: MBaiilj.png

    Not being funny but reckon Boris is suffering from some sort of mental health condition, memory related or some neurological logic processing error.

    The only way out of brexit now is tactical voting to get LibDems in, even if/when hard brexit goes ahead, you can look forward to Indie Scotland, and perhaps soon after the new 'Great Celtic Union' (Ire+N+Scot).


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    #38
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Johnson has a very interesting pedigree, by Irish standards anyway, according to Wikipedia - or is it a pisstake?
    Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson....was born to British parents on 19 June 1964 in Manhattan's Upper East Side in New York City.... His father, Stanley Johnson, was then studying economics at Columbia University. Johnson's maternal grandfather was the lawyer Sir James Fawcett. Johnson's paternal great grandfather was Circassian-Turkish journalist Ali Kemal; on his maternal side he is of mixed English and French descent and is a descendant of King George II of Great Britain. Johnson's mother was Charlotte Fawcett;[11] an artist from a family of liberal intellectuals, she had married Stanley in 1963, prior to their move to the U.S.[12] She is the granddaughter of Elias Avery Lowe, a palaeographer of Russian-Jewish descent,[13] and Helen Tracy Lowe-Porter a translator of Thomas Mann. In reference to his varied ancestry, Johnson has described himself as a "one-man melting pot" – with a combination of Muslims, Jews, and Christians as great-grandparents. Johnson was given the middle name "Boris" after a Russian émigré his parents had once met....


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    #39
    Jamie2k9
    Registered Users Posts: 10,667 ✭✭✭✭Jamie2k9


    It will be Hunt or Gove, Borris won't make it to the voting.


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    #40
    Cal4567
    Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    It will be Hunt or Gove, Borris won't make it to the voting.

    You can lay him at 1.52 on betfair if you are so confident. I reckon he will now get on the final ballot. Too many Tory MPs see his as their best option to avoid Corbyn getting into no. 10.

    Tory voters seem to admire him. He's their man. I'm finding it hard now to see how he won't get to the final 2. Circumstances are putting the prize in Boris's lap.

    Hunt - a remainer just like May. Surely the Tory vote will want to see a leaver as PM.


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    #41
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    More Farage gets in opinion polls more likely Tory parliamentary party will support Johnson. Probably with heavy heart but he is their best chance in case of election. And then Labour and Conservatives will be run by people who would happily see country burn if that helps them to get into power.


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    #42
    Odhinn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,976 ✭✭✭Odhinn


    Boris ahead with 114 votes, Hunt second with 43, Gove third with 37.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48624579


    However the process goes on until well into July, so it's very early days yet.


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    #43
    Henry Ford III
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭Henry Ford III


    I hope Europe kick him up and down the street like a football.


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    #44
    Jupiter Mulligan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 525 ✭✭✭Jupiter Mulligan


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Johnson has a very interesting pedigree, by Irish standards anyway, according to Wikipedia - or is it a pisstake?

    Completely accurate!

    He was on the Beeb's "Who do you think you are" a few years ago and found that he had a very interesting pedigree!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/whodoyouthinkyouare/new-stories/boris-johnson/how-we-did-it_2.shtml


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    #45
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Imagine a meeting between Trump and Johnson and the following loved up tweets. Putin and co. must be delighted at the prospect.


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    #46
    badabing106
    Registered Users Posts: 1,425 ✭✭✭badabing106


    Bojo gets biggest tory majority since the 80s, brexit in the oven. Sterling soaring. The sky's the limit on his premiership


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    #47
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,020 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Soaring :)

    It was a pretty singular issue election, a conservative victory was guaranteed the only thing in question was by how many. Wouldn't get overly excited yet, the union itself is in trouble given the outcome of that election but for thankfully Brexit will surely get done now at least.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #48
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    One full term at least.


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    #49
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    badabing106 wrote: »
    Bojo gets biggest tory majority since the 80s, brexit in the oven. Sterling soaring. The sky's the limit on his premiership

    It doesn't work that way. Biggest elation often brings biggest falls when people realise that what they thought what their expectations were doesn't match reality. People are overly optimistic and usually there is let down after a while. That's not unique to UK, I saw the same when communism collapsed, Arabisn Spring or even in Ireland. During recession people voted for Labour in droves and they lost all the votes plus more when reality of being in government struck.

    Johnson won't soar, nobody does but considering student politics took over labour party he has nothing to fear either.


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    #50
    Luke Creamy Skit
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Luke Creamy Skit


    His goal was to be the prime minister that delivered Brexit. He'll hang around a while but no chance he stays around in the trade negotiation trenches.


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    #51
    Vegeta
    Registered Users Posts: 11,394 ✭✭✭✭Vegeta


    Deleted User wrote: »
    His goal was to be the prime minister that delivered Brexit. He'll hang around a while but no chance he stays around in the trade negotiation trenches.

    Yup, my thoughts on it too. He'll deliver Brexit, pat himself on the back and then run away for the negotiations as the outcome of those is likely to be really unpopular.


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    #52
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,005 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    like many here, Boris is not someone I tolerate whatsoever.

    However don't write him off, he twice was London Mayor, played a massive role in leave one of the biggest political shocks in decades,,, and despite getting knifed by Gove afterwards, in the last few months he easily won his leadership contest and then walloped Corbyn.

    Brexit won't go well and won't transform the lives of those who want it so badly, but he will still be a formidable foe in 2024 unfortunately.


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    #53
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    8 years

    He'll be forced out in 2027 over something to do with Europe and 19 years of disastrous Tory rule will finally come to an end in May 2029 when Andy Burnham, with a front bench featuring Faiza Shaheen, Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan beats the hapless Johnny Mercer

    If it's any consolation to Britain, it's just into the second half of Tory rule


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    #54
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Until he eradicates poverty and you can't put a time limit on that, he has to round up the poor people, every last one and kill them first.


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    #55
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,678 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    L1011 wrote: »
    3 months. He'll call an election and lose.

    Well that didn't work out...

    New guess - two to three years before something catches him up from his past that is either scandalous enough on its own; or more realistically just the straw that breaks the camels back and someone senior in cabinet knifes him to try get the role themselves.

    This is assuming they're at some level of sanity/stability with regards to their relationship with Europe; and NI hasn't exploded - either would prevent that scenario happening. I'm imagining some rebranded BRINO happened; they're back to near normality and maybe lose two by-elections on the trot and have faltering polling figures.


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    #56
    maccored
    Registered Users Posts: 10,660 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    i dont think boris is as stupid as he's made out to be. he's another trump. he'll be about for a while. he's going to be another Thatcher i reckon.


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    #57
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,540 ✭✭✭✭briany


    It's worth asking whether many of those Labour heartland seats switched to Conservative because they like the policies of Boris and the Conservatives, or just because of frustration over Brexit and a distrust of Corbyn. It's entirely possible those heartland seats are there to be won back, but Labour will need to do some considerable soul searching to do it, and elect a leader who can once again inspire people in those areas.


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    #58
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    StringerBell wrote: »
    Soaring :)

    It was a pretty singular issue election, a conservative victory was guaranteed the only thing in question was by how many. Wouldn't get overly excited yet, the union itself is in trouble given the outcome of that election but for thankfully Brexit will surely get done now at least.
    But if you look at the commentary before Johnson, Brexit was the thing Brits were having second thoughts about and looking for a way out of. Now it's the thing that Boris unfairly used to win the election.


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    #59
    jonnogael
    Registered Users Posts: 19 ✭jonnogael


    For as long as he wants if Labour keep electing clowns like Corbyn as leader.


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    #60
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,344 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    I expect something will catch up on him from his past
    He is being stage managed by cummings and co very well though

    Or the EU will get all the blame for the lack of a trade deal with a recession on the horizon


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    #61
    theguzman
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    briany wrote: »
    It's worth asking whether many of those Labour heartland seats switched to Conservative because they like the policies of Boris and the Conservatives, or just because of frustration over Brexit and a distrust of Corbyn. It's entirely possible those heartland seats are there to be won back, but Labour will need to do some considerable soul searching to do it, and elect a leader who can once again inspire people in those areas.

    They areprimarily Rural white English constituencies where poverty and decades of under investment has led to some pretty serious economic disadvantages, I don't think they will ever return to Labour in Labour's current shape and form now anyway.

    Like Brexit, the Tory landslide is the rejection of political correctness, the EU and unrestricted mass unskilled immigration which has driven down wages, increased rents, seen enormous social and terror problems. The far-left and their holier than thou everyone else is a racist and wrong mantra is being flatly rejected worldwide as moderates abandon leftwing politics and swing to the far right and conservative alternatives.

    When you have a party who is more concerned for the minority than the majority you know you have a problem, Labour ran on a slogan of for the many not the few, but in reality it was the exact reverse, welfare recipients were to be prioritised, cripple the majority in taxes and borrow borrow borrow, Boris is the sort of bull in a china shop who isn't afraid to upset people and this resonates well, he tells it like it is. You can be against mass immigration and not be a racist, it is not homophobic to have reservations about the LGBT agenda etc. Screaming and yelling abuse at people with concerns won't win them over, it will harden their stance, something the Labour far-left Momentum movement doesn't seem to get.


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