How long will Boris be Prime Minister of Great Britain?

sxt

He seems to be a figure that has cross party popularity akin to Tony Blair had in his heyday and he lasted 10 years. Since www 2, leaders last approximately either less than a year, 3 years, 6 years or 10 years

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom

This is role Boris was destined for, when he gets through the sticky Brexit issue, it is full sail ahead. 10 years at least!

Piers Morgan gifting Donald trump with a Winston Churchill hat yesterday was very fitting and symbolic. Was that a gift from Bojo? Boris wrote a book about Churchill

He's going to make great Britain great again, isn't he?

Grayson

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/05/majority-of-voters-think-boris-johnson-would-make-bad-pm-polling-expert

Majority of voters think Boris Johnson would make bad PM - polling expert
Antipathy among many voters towards favourite may harm his Tory leadership chances

In a YouGov poll, 28% of the public thought Boris Johnson would make a good prime minister, but 54% thought he would make a bad PM. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images
Many voters have a “distinct antipathy” towards Boris Johnson, which could hamper his chances of winning a future general election even if he delivered Brexit, the Conservative peer and polling expert Robert Hayward has said.

Johnson is the overwhelming favourite in the race to succeed Theresa May, in which will the field of 11 candidates – with more likely to declare – will be whittled down to two over the next fortnight.

After analysing a slew of recent polls on the parties and candidates, Hayward said a new Tory leader would not win a general election unless they were “transfer-friendly”.

“A Tory prime minister or leader can’t win without Brexiteers; but you actually can’t win without the people who don’t strongly identify with one side or the other, and are looking for good government,” he said.

He said that while Johnson was very popular with a section of the electorate, he was also the leadership frontrunner whom voters were most likely to say would make a bad prime minister.

“There is a distinct antipathy towards Boris,” he said. He pointed to a recent YouGov poll that suggested as many as 23% of respondents who had voted Conservative in 2017 thought Johnson would be a “very bad” prime minister.


In the same poll, 28% of the public thought he would make a good prime minister, outstripping any of the other eight candidates they asked about – but 54% thought he would make a bad PM.

If he gets it, then one day in the job will be too long for the lying, mumbling pile of shag carpet
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/times-boris-johnson-flat-lied/

Deebles McBeebles

No option for 350 million days?

kneemos

People like him as a buffoon,not for a leader though.

meeeeh

I'm not sure UK will survive long enough for Bojo to be in power for 10 years.

.Charlo

meeeeh wrote: »

I'm not sure UK will survive long enough for Bojo to be in power for 10 years.

What do you think is going to happen?

theteal

kneemos wrote: »

People like him as a buffoon,not for a leader though.

I don't know about that, he's surprisingly popular - a glut of people honestly don't see that his Brexit stance was merely an attempt at self promotion, these people want Brexit so they're pushing for the buffoon. I have to live here for another bit longer and I've a very uneasy feeling about it. . .

Harry Palmr

he will not get the job.

meeeeh

.Charlo wrote: »

What do you think is going to happen?

Scotland might go for another referendum for example. Nobody in 1980 thought Yugoslavia will be in full blown war 10 years later.

Badly Drunk Boy

meeeeh wrote: »

Scotland might go for another referendum for example. Nobody in 1980 thought Yugoslavia will be in full blown war 10 years later.

A seven year old me did, although back then we spelt it 'Jugoslavia'.

meeeeh

Badly Drunk Boy wrote: »

A seven year old me did, although back then we spelt it 'Jugoslavia'.

'We' never spelt it Jugoslavia. There is a 'j' missing.

Anyway back to GB, I think situation is messed up enough that nobody will get long as pm. The country is too divided.

L1011

3 months. He'll call an election and lose.

Fan of Netflix

L1011 wrote: »

3 months. He'll call an election and lose.

No way Corbyn will become PM though I like him. The British establishment and media will demonise him even more at a general election.

Eric Cartman

either as long as corbyn is the alternative or if mogg can gain enough moggmentum for a leadership challenge.Whichever comes first. If labour were smart they'd just go back to blairite politics and the public would have him out in a week.

James Brown

Boris is a car crash of a man. They use to have him on 'Have I got News for you' to take the piss out of him.
The British establishment will not give Corbyn, (any Blarites should form a Tory-lite party of their own) any fair hearing so I can't see him winning, that said Boris is likely to force himself to resign.

Fan of Netflix

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Boris is a car crash of a man. They use to have him on 'Have I got News for you' to take the piss out of him.
The British establishment will not give Corbyn, (any Blarites should form a Tory-lite party of their own) any fair hearing so I can't see him winning, that said Boris is likely to force himself to resign.

Do you think John McDonnell or another leftie could get a fair crack at it or will they "do a Corbyn" on them too?

boege

Boris will stay in the long grass, as now is not his time.

The next PM will fall with Brexit, no matter how it plays out. I expect October to be a repeat of March (what will change?) but UK to hard exit in an acrimonious fashion.

The PM after Brexit will then be Boris. Post exit, Boris will negotiate a trade deal with the EU and claim he saved Great Britain and the Tories.

L1011

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

No way Corbyn will become PM though I like him. The British establishment and media will demonise him even more at a general election.

This country has shown us how you handle a leader that can't be PM - give it to their deputy. John A Costello did not lead FG either time he was Taoiseach.

Where is the 'approximately never' option? The slobbering dunce hasn't a snowball's chance in hell.

James Brown

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Do you think John McDonnell or another leftie could get a fair crack at it or will they "do a Corbyn" on them too?

It depends. It's an actual left labour they've issue with. Theyd stomach Tory lite.

Spanish Eyes

boege wrote: »

Boris will stay in the long grass, as now is not his time.

The next PM will fall with Brexit, no matter how it plays out. I expect October to be a repeat of March (what will change?) but UK to hard exit in an acrimonious fashion.

The PM after Brexit will then be Boris. Post exit, Boris will negotiate a trade deal with the EU and claim he saved Great Britain and the Tories.

Yep, I wondered why he put his name forward, but he is never going to be PM this time around, he is biding his time because it will be a disaster for him as it was for TM to be pm right now. And he knows it.

Far more difficult to lead your country through a crisis like Brexit. Odious man.

Who will take on the mantle now. It is surely the kiss of death for any incumbent at the moment.

BorneTobyWilde

A general election is likely soon, the Tories and Labour will take a hounding. If the Brexit Party decided to run in general election it could do a Trump and win, or win enough to be able to join forces with another to get into power.

bfa1509

I can picture Boris and Trump holding hands and skipping down the paddock. Thus, he will strike a bizarrely good deal with the US and get the UK out of the hole leaving dust to gather on the "border issue". He will retire after an illustrious career in 2024 when Trump completes his second term and the two of them will withdraw from public life together to Doonbeg

Cal4567

If Boris gets the gig and it is still a big if to get past the first stage of voting by MPs, then he will only be ousted as PM if the Tories lose an election. Unlikely Labour under Corbyn will get a clear mandate to govern. Cannot see the Brexit party appealing to voters at a GE. Like UKIP they will be seen as one trick ponies. Their support will scuttle back to the Tories.

Will depend greatly on how Brexit turns out and if the UK can weather the storm. I don't buy into this analysis here that the UK will fall off a cliff either. That scenario suits no one, including the EU.

Cal4567

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

A general election is likely soon, the Tories and Labour will take a hounding. If the Brexit Party decided to run in general election it could do a Trump and win, or win enough to be able to join forces with another to get into power.

Going to be difficult in the FPTP system. I would guess 40-50 seats, but having the ability to hold the balance of power. Whether the Brexit Party has staying power is another thing though.

loyatemu

Cal4567 wrote: »

Going to be difficult in the FPTP system. I would guess 40-50 seats, but having the ability to hold the balance of power. Whether the Brexit Party has staying power is another thing though.

If they outpoll the Tories anything is possible, these are strange times. A general election this year with Brexit as the main issue could see both the Brexit party and the LibDems take 100+ seats which would leave the UK in an even bigger ungovernable mess than it is now.

megaten

There should be a never option in the poll.

Quin_Dub

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

A general election is likely soon, the Tories and Labour will take a hounding. If the Brexit Party decided to run in general election it could do a Trump and win, or win enough to be able to join forces with another to get into power.

No - It won't

For the EU Elections people were voting for Farage essentially as it's a list system.

For a GE , they'd have to find 400+ candidates to actually stand for election in the various constituencies be competitive for winning an overall majority.

In FPTP, people will absolutely not vote for a randomer over a known quantity.

Bear in mind Farage has walked into an EU seat each time for the last 20 years , but has failed miserably to win an MP seat seven times in a row - And he has all the name recognition you could wish for, some unknown candidate hasn't a hope.

They'll be lucky to crack 30-40 seats , more that enough to be "king makers" without question , but absolutely zero chance of winning a majority.

I don't know about less than 365 days, but definitely fewer than 365 days.

Although I'd like to see him really expose himself as the fraud which he is. A slow, painful political humiliation, and take the rest of his fellow populists down with him.

jimmycrackcorm

Regardless if the UK leaves or extends, Boris or another, the Tory leader won't last much longer than October 31st.

Nobody will be happy with the outcome

Snickers Man

meeeeh wrote: »

I'm not sure UK will survive long enough for Bojo to be in power for 10 years.

I agree. So the answer to the question could be:

Leader of the UK: less than a year
Leader of England (and maybe Wales): who knows?

meeeeh

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Regardless if the UK leaves or extends, Boris or another, the Tory leader won't last much longer than October 31st.

Nobody will be happy with the outcome

It depends. If Jezza is the alternative then I'm not sure Labour won't self-combust either and UK election system doesn't offer many options.

Odhinn

Deleted User wrote: »

Where is the 'approximately never' option? The slobbering dunce hasn't a snowball's chance in hell.

That's what I thought, so I looked at the odds
https://www.paddypower.com/politics


He's 8/13 on vs the nearest competitor (Jeremy Hunt) at 7/1.

seamus

If he goes for it, it seems pretty likely the Tories will give it to him. Problem is that he is personally sheltered from any fallout, financially. So as long as the DUP and the Tories stick by him, he can bull on with whatever plans he likes.

So how long he remains in office depends on how long it takes for enough Tories to abandon him that a general election is called. This is the politics that we've been watching for the last two years; stay the course at all costs, don't give up, never second-guess. If the Tories allow him, he will drag the entire country wailing into a no-deal Brexit because he's too stupid and disconnected to understand why it's such a bad idea.

munchkin_utd

the first step would be to create a country called Great Britain, probably covering the territory of the island of Great Britain, and then maybe come back and ask if Boris will be leader of this country which doesnt exist.

For the UK - United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - to become just "Great Britain", you'd need Northern Ireland to leave, which isnt happening any time soon to be honest.

blackwhite

Odhinn wrote: »

That's what I thought, so I looked at the odds
https://www.paddypower.com/politics


He's 8/13 on vs the nearest competitor (Jeremy Hunt) at 7/1.

I had the same thought process, and was shocked how far ahead the bookies have him


Grim thought if you're a voter in the UK - potential choice between Boris or Corbyn in the next election.

4068ac1elhodqr

Odhinn wrote: »

That's what I thought, so I looked at the odds
https://www.paddypower.com/politics

He's 8/13 on vs the nearest competitor (Jeremy Hunt) at 7/1.

Generally even shorter than that, he's 8/15 currently (i.e. @1.53).
Put 10 notes on him, and get a net profit of just 5.30.

But averaging 1.44-1.5 elsewhere.
Was sitting on evens for most of the last few months:

Not being funny but reckon Boris is suffering from some sort of mental health condition, memory related or some neurological logic processing error.

The only way out of brexit now is tactical voting to get LibDems in, even if/when hard brexit goes ahead, you can look forward to Indie Scotland, and perhaps soon after the new 'Great Celtic Union' (Ire+N+Scot).

Johnson has a very interesting pedigree, by Irish standards anyway, according to Wikipedia - or is it a pisstake?

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson....was born to British parents on 19 June 1964 in Manhattan's Upper East Side in New York City.... His father, Stanley Johnson, was then studying economics at Columbia University. Johnson's maternal grandfather was the lawyer Sir James Fawcett. Johnson's paternal great grandfather was Circassian-Turkish journalist Ali Kemal; on his maternal side he is of mixed English and French descent and is a descendant of King George II of Great Britain. Johnson's mother was Charlotte Fawcett;[11] an artist from a family of liberal intellectuals, she had married Stanley in 1963, prior to their move to the U.S.[12] She is the granddaughter of Elias Avery Lowe, a palaeographer of Russian-Jewish descent,[13] and Helen Tracy Lowe-Porter a translator of Thomas Mann. In reference to his varied ancestry, Johnson has described himself as a "one-man melting pot" – with a combination of Muslims, Jews, and Christians as great-grandparents. Johnson was given the middle name "Boris" after a Russian émigré his parents had once met....

Jamie2k9

It will be Hunt or Gove, Borris won't make it to the voting.

Cal4567

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

It will be Hunt or Gove, Borris won't make it to the voting.

You can lay him at 1.52 on betfair if you are so confident. I reckon he will now get on the final ballot. Too many Tory MPs see his as their best option to avoid Corbyn getting into no. 10.

Tory voters seem to admire him. He's their man. I'm finding it hard now to see how he won't get to the final 2. Circumstances are putting the prize in Boris's lap.

Hunt - a remainer just like May. Surely the Tory vote will want to see a leaver as PM.

meeeeh

More Farage gets in opinion polls more likely Tory parliamentary party will support Johnson. Probably with heavy heart but he is their best chance in case of election. And then Labour and Conservatives will be run by people who would happily see country burn if that helps them to get into power.

Odhinn

Boris ahead with 114 votes, Hunt second with 43, Gove third with 37.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48624579


However the process goes on until well into July, so it's very early days yet.

Henry Ford III

I hope Europe kick him up and down the street like a football.

Jupiter Mulligan

Deleted User wrote: »

Johnson has a very interesting pedigree, by Irish standards anyway, according to Wikipedia - or is it a pisstake?

Completely accurate!

He was on the Beeb's "Who do you think you are" a few years ago and found that he had a very interesting pedigree!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/whodoyouthinkyouare/new-stories/boris-johnson/how-we-did-it_2.shtml

James Brown

Imagine a meeting between Trump and Johnson and the following loved up tweets. Putin and co. must be delighted at the prospect.

badabing106

Bojo gets biggest tory majority since the 80s, brexit in the oven. Sterling soaring. The sky's the limit on his premiership

StringerBell

Soaring

It was a pretty singular issue election, a conservative victory was guaranteed the only thing in question was by how many. Wouldn't get overly excited yet, the union itself is in trouble given the outcome of that election but for thankfully Brexit will surely get done now at least.

ILoveYourVibes

One full term at least.

meeeeh

badabing106 wrote: »

Bojo gets biggest tory majority since the 80s, brexit in the oven. Sterling soaring. The sky's the limit on his premiership

It doesn't work that way. Biggest elation often brings biggest falls when people realise that what they thought what their expectations were doesn't match reality. People are overly optimistic and usually there is let down after a while. That's not unique to UK, I saw the same when communism collapsed, Arabisn Spring or even in Ireland. During recession people voted for Labour in droves and they lost all the votes plus more when reality of being in government struck.

Johnson won't soar, nobody does but considering student politics took over labour party he has nothing to fear either.

His goal was to be the prime minister that delivered Brexit. He'll hang around a while but no chance he stays around in the trade negotiation trenches.

Vegeta

Deleted User wrote: »

His goal was to be the prime minister that delivered Brexit. He'll hang around a while but no chance he stays around in the trade negotiation trenches.

Yup, my thoughts on it too. He'll deliver Brexit, pat himself on the back and then run away for the negotiations as the outcome of those is likely to be really unpopular.