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Property Market 2020

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Comments

  • #1002
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    beauf wrote: »
    The objective isn't to broaden the type of supply. Its to drive investment in the economy, to drive recovery.
    They could care less about anyone left behind in the stampede.

    Has supply broadened? Nope.

    Not what I posted. Read my post again.

    Broadening the types of landlord. i.e. reduce the dependence on small private landlords by incentivising institutional investors.

    Increase supply, i.e. BTR developments.


  • #1003
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    People use sweeping terms like supply as is if its all the same thing. It isn't. Small LL aren't in the same market as the big investors.

    What this is doing is increasing supply where it least needed.

    https://www.98fm.com/news/hundreds-of-high-rent-luxury-dublin-apartments-lying-empty-971988


  • #1004
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Even if the supply is currently focussed at the upper end of the market, people moving in to these developments free-up properties further down the chain.

    Properties that are priced to high won't let. At some point this will force the prices to be dropped.

    As the demand at the upper end of the market is satisfied, developments will start to focus on the middle market as can already be seen with the likes of the Vesta Living development.


  • #1005
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,998 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Graham wrote: »
    Rents will continue to rise until supply improves. This is improving supply.

    Is it net improving though? At least in the rental market. Or is the mass exodus of individual landlords too large?

    The last RTB report in registrations had a 1k increase year on year, q2 2018 to q2 2019. Reported earlier in this thread that 3400 BTL apartments were finished last year, that would have been brought to market.


  • #1006
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Graham wrote: »
    Rents will continue to rise until supply improves. This is improving supply.

    Governments the world over use taxation to encourage/discourage all types of investment. In this case I expect the tax incentives will be reduced over time as the objectives of increasing supply/broadening the types of landlord are achieved.

    There isn t a hope of this happening , the Govt is beholden to MNCs of all descriptions and there is the same chance of the tax breaks changing as corporation tax increasing . When Michael Noonan went on his American investment tour in 2011 these deals were worked out and while they have obviously brought prosperity to us by increasing property values and property diversification ,they have skewed the market in favour of big capital who are using a quasi monopoly to control the market which in their terms is a small profit rich one.


  • #1007
    TSQ
    Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭TSQ


    Graham wrote: »
    Even if the supply is currently focussed at the upper end of the market, people moving in to these developments free-up properties further down the chain.

    Properties that are priced to high won't let. At some point this will force the prices to be dropped.
    .....

    If residential property trends mirror those of commercial property owned by large conglomerates and investment vehicles, these will remain empty rather than see prices drop. The investment value is based on the theoretical rental income, not on the actual return on investment. That is one reason so many commercial landlords refused to drop rents during the bust, preferring to leave units empty. By reducing rents they would reduce the paper value of the investment and this in turn could leave the owners in breach of covenants (loan to value) with banks. Banks could then demand immediate repayment of any loans. So, unless the government steps in and places a charge on un-let properties, there will be no rush on the part of these large scale landlords to drop rents. If there was a realistic property tax, this would discourage property hoarding, but Morons Before Profit put paid to this.


  • #1008
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    TSQ wrote: »
    So, unless the government steps in and places a charge on un-let properties, there will be no rush on the part of these large scale landlords to drop rents. If there was a realistic property tax, this would discourage property hoarding, but Morons Before Profit put paid to this.

    +1
    We need both a realistic property tax- but even more importantly, a vacant property tax. I would argue that it should include the 23,640 vacant properties nationwide that are voluntarily vacant by people availing of the Fair Deal Scheme. Its bonkers that you avail of that scheme and there is no onus on you to let your property. It should be a condition of the scheme.


  • #1009
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    TSQ wrote: »
    If residential property trends mirror those of commercial property owned by large conglomerates and investment vehicles, these will remain empty rather than see prices drop. The investment value is based on the theoretical rental income, not on the actual return on investment. That is one reason so many commercial landlords refused to drop rents during the bust, preferring to leave units empty. By reducing rents they would reduce the paper value of the investment and this in turn could leave the owners in breach of covenants (loan to value) with banks. Banks could then demand immediate repayment of any loans. So, unless the government steps in and places a charge on un-let properties, there will be no rush on the part of these large scale landlords to drop rents. If there was a realistic property tax, this would discourage property hoarding, but Morons Before Profit put paid to this.


    if the landlord has no mortgage to pay there is no ground for breach of covenant. In that case a house could be left empty with no legal consequences


  • #1010
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    +1
    We need both a realistic property tax- but even more importantly, a vacant property tax. I would argue that it should include the 23,640 vacant properties nationwide that are voluntarily vacant by people availing of the Fair Deal Scheme. Its bonkers that you avail of that scheme and there is no onus on you to let your property. It should be a condition of the scheme.

    Its not practical. There are too many legal and practical considerations. Wills and estates can take years to sort out. Even where their are no arguments or conflicts. Never mind if the properties are suitable, which they usually aren't. Even if you could do it. You are basically forcing people to be LLs, and taking on a lot of risk and expense, for little gain. Considering the people who want to be LLs are leaving the market. There is no protection. The only reason you want, or need to do this. Is because the Govt has neglected the provision of housing. Asking OAP's to cover for them is ridiculous.


  • #1011
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Graham wrote: »
    Even if the supply is currently focussed at the upper end of the market, people moving in to these developments free-up properties further down the chain.

    Properties that are priced to high won't let. At some point this will force the prices to be dropped.

    As the demand at the upper end of the market is satisfied, developments will start to focus on the middle market as can already be seen with the likes of the Vesta Living development.

    Not if the people moving into these high end properties, are from somewhere else. We are importing high end skilled labour. These properties are aimed at them. Lots of properties left empty. They are investments.

    Like a broken clock at some point these predictions will be true the market will decline. But you'll have allowed a housing crisis to exist for generations.


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  • #1012
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    beauf wrote: »
    Asking OAP's to cover for them is ridiculous.

    Meanwhile the whole point of the Fair Deal Scheme- is that it allows OAPs leverage their PPR to pay for nursing home fees.

    If they're in there for a number of years- the property is going to deteriorate, and suitable location or otherwise- it is vacant...…..

    We currently have over 23,600 such vacant residences nationwide- and it beggars belief that no-one has any ideas for a scheme adjustment to get them onto the market (if not the rental market- the open market- make them available for people to buy).

    Also- there aren't any estate issues etc- its simply an asset that is being folded into the estate- and if the owner of the property is still with us- they can elect to do whatever they may with the balance of their liquidity- which might be an attractive prospect for some people.

    It might also be used as a mechanism to encourage more of co-living arrangements- which are in pitiful supply in Ireland. Its bonkers that we are shovelling our OAPs into nursing homes- when many of them simply need a little more care and attention than they have in their own homes.

    One way or the other- there are currently 23,640 vacant residential properties that belong to people availing of the 'Fair Deal Scheme' and this is increasing by a net 4000 units per annum.


  • #1013
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,998 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I would argue that it should include the 23,640 vacant properties nationwide that are voluntarily vacant by people availing of the Fair Deal Scheme. Its bonkers that you avail of that scheme and there is no onus on you to let your property. It should be a condition of the scheme.

    Seems unworkable if I honest.
    After tax, 80% of the rental income goes to the state again.
    The landlord is in a home, not exactly ideal.
    Basically losing their home upon entering the scheme.
    Seems like a financial and emotional burden.

    Best option would be to force the sale of the home upon entering the scheme. But you would assume most people would just loophole around it.


  • #1014
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    Best option would be to force the sale of the home upon entering the scheme. But you would assume most people would just loophole around it.

    This would be the sanest option.
    Having a growing number of vacant properties, around the country, deteriorating and falling into disrepair- for however long a person lives out their twilight in a nursing home- just isn't good for anyone. I doubt the OAP in the retirement home is happy with the fact that his roof has developed a leak, his gutters are blocked, windows are broken- and his garden looks like an attempt at rebirthing a rain forest. Of course they're in a nursing home- so they don't necessarily see this.

    It would have to be packaged up in some sort of a satisfactory manner so that the OAP saw it was in their interests to sell the property rather than leave it vacant- but the current lack of any consideration for all those properties- is nothing short of scandalous.

    The Fair Deal Scheme costs a cool billion Euro per annum- and even with the clawback on the PPR- is not run on a cost recovery basis- which is not what was decreed when the scheme was setup.

    These properties are going to hit the market anyhow- however, leaving tens of thousands of properties to deteriorate for a number of years- is just mind boggling- there has to be a better way of managing housing stocks...…….

    Why not put them on the open market- to establish a market price, then roll them into local authority housing stock- so they'd be taken good care of.

    We actually have these 23,640 (and growing by 16% per annum) numbers of vacant properties- and no-one is discussing them- they are untouchable, because the family home is sacrosanct- but its no longer a family home if the homeowner is in a nursing home...……..


  • #1015
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Meanwhile the whole point of the Fair Deal Scheme- is that it allows OAPs leverage their PPR to pay for nursing home fees.

    If they're in there for a number of years- the property is going to deteriorate, and suitable location or otherwise- it is vacant...…..

    We currently have over 23,600 such vacant residences nationwide- and it beggars belief that no-one has any ideas for a scheme adjustment to get them onto the market (if not the rental market- the open market- make them available for people to buy).

    Also- there aren't any estate issues etc- its simply an asset that is being folded into the estate- and if the owner of the property is still with us- they can elect to do whatever they may with the balance of their liquidity- which might be an attractive prospect for some people.

    It might also be used as a mechanism to encourage more of co-living arrangements- which are in pitiful supply in Ireland. Its bonkers that we are shovelling our OAPs into nursing homes- when many of them simply need a little more care and attention than they have in their own homes.

    One way or the other- there are currently 23,640 vacant residential properties that belong to people availing of the 'Fair Deal Scheme' and this is increasing by a net 4000 units per annum.

    Sorry but this is all fantasy. Its completely devoid of any understanding of the realities.


  • #1016
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Meanwhile the whole point of the Fair Deal Scheme- is that it allows OAPs leverage their PPR to pay for nursing home fees....

    You haven't even got this bit right. The fair deal only takes max 7.5%x3yrs of the PPR, and then only the part that the person in the home owns. They may not be the sole owner. It will not cover the cost of the nursing home over the persons lifetime, which can be 60~100k a year, unless its a very expensive property and/or the person doesn't live that long and/or the 7.5% is the same as the yearly cost of the care. If you sell the house and put the cash in the bank, it takes 7.5% every year as long as the person is in care. The person can outlive the value in the house.

    The rest of your ideas are similarly off...


  • #1017
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,998 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Part of changing how the scheme works, involves changing the scheme.

    You could easily say sale of house, sale cost minus 7.5% over 3 years, remaining cash exempt.


  • #1018
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    Part of changing how the scheme works, involves changing the scheme.

    You could easily say sale of house, sale cost minus 7.5% over 3 years, remaining cash exempt.

    Who pays the cost of selling the house, all the tax, do you rip up the will, do you kick out any family still in the house. Who pays to bring he house up to standard. Who pays all the legal fees for this. How long does it all take. What do you do with their stuff. Who pays for the storage of this stuff. There may be other costs to be borne by the estate, they might have other debts, funeral costs.

    Instead of this why don't the Govt just buy/build properties in the first place and rent them. Like they used.


  • #1019
    TSQ
    Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭TSQ


    beauf wrote: »
    ....

    Instead of this why don't the Govt just buy/build properties in the first place and rent them. Like they used.

    and leave perfectly good homes go to rack and ruin? If the govt can legislate for a derelict site tax, impose rules for landlords in rent pressure zones, etc, no reason why they cant legislate for a derelict homes tax, or better still, for an empty dwelling tax in rent pressure zones. The Housing Together scheme could surely be tweaked to facilitate loans to do up houses for long term social housing (the 10 year lease would be short enough to suit someone going in to care, and their families).


  • #1020
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Overall, do people think the Dublin market is picking up again? With a steady rise throughout the year or is it just Jan/Feb being busy now that Brexit is over and it will slowdown later this year.


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  • #1021
    anplaya27
    Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭anplaya27


    How much would ye bid under a houses asking price or would ye offer what they are asking ? Similar houses have sold in the last few months 20000 of what they are currently asking.


  • #1022
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Overall, do people think the Dublin market is picking up again? With a steady rise throughout the year or is it just Jan/Feb being busy now that Brexit is over and it will slowdown later this year.


    it's Jan/Feb catching up on last year slow down


  • #1023
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    it's Jan/Feb catching up on last year slow down

    Do you think it will slow down a bit in Q2/Q3. Are you currently looking yourself?


  • #1024
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Overall, do people think the Dublin market is picking up again? With a steady rise throughout the year or is it just Jan/Feb being busy now that Brexit is over and it will slowdown later this year.

    Depends what exact area you are looking. Where I'm looking there is very little new on the market since last year. There are new build houses, but they aren't all sold. All at the high end. No starter homes or smaller/cheaper places.


  • #1025
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    TSQ wrote: »
    and leave perfectly good homes go to rack and ruin? If the govt can legislate for a derelict site tax, impose rules for landlords in rent pressure zones, etc, no reason why they cant legislate for a derelict homes tax, or better still, for an empty dwelling tax in rent pressure zones. The Housing Together scheme could surely be tweaked to facilitate loans to do up houses for long term social housing (the 10 year lease would be short enough to suit someone going in to care, and their families).

    If they were perfectly good homes they wouldn't need work in the first place.
    If they haven't been sold then there is a reason for it, legal or otherwise.
    In the time you'd have all this sorted you've have built new housing.

    Why you'd choose to go the longest more difficult route, perhaps even more expensive to end up with an flawed modernized old house, instead of a new one.

    No one wants to be landlord for this type of housing. Not even the govt. They are trying to outsource the responsibility.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/how-many-empty-council-houses-are-there-in-your-county-2355049-Sep2015/
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/more-than-3-600-local-authority-homes-vacant-at-end-of-2017-1.3671530

    Literally the Govt need to get their houses in order before grabbing someone else's before they are even dead. How much housing did Nama dispose of.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/nama-progress-report-4421912-Jan2019/


  • #1026
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    i viewed 2 apartments in smithfield on sat, both on at 375k for 2 bed, both small investors selling up. Seems to be a few apts slowly coming onto the market and all the ones ive viewed have been small landlords selling up.

    Definitely more supply coming on


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  • #1027
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Do you think it will slow down a bit in Q2/Q3. Are you currently looking yourself?


    I've been looking at the market for quite sometime now, the trend was positive until beginning of 2019 then it stabilized with only -0.9% drop in Dublin year on year 2019-2020
    Jan/Feb looks like an out of trend spike, it's too early to draw conclusions.
    One thing to consider is how the virus will affect flights and people circulation inside Europe for the coming weeks/months. Economy will be impacted too
    Italy lost 4% stock value in 1 day. A big portion of rent payers in town are foreigners working for multinational companies
    This is going to be a year to watch


  • #1028
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    yea ive been thinking about this, we are flying to austria on sat and got a warning from topflight saying check for updates re: travel restrictions. I think we are only starting to see the impact of the coronavirus, when it spreads...and it will who knows what impact it will have on the economies of europe


  • #1029
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    19233974 wrote: »
    yea ive been thinking about this, we are flying to austria on sat and got a warning from topflight saying check for updates re: travel restrictions. I think we are only starting to see the impact of the coronavirus, when it spreads...and it will who knows what impact it will have on the economies of europe

    I reckon it will go the way or sars it will blow itself out within the next 6 months either that or a treatment will be found


  • #1030
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    fliball123 wrote: »
    I reckon it will go the way or sars it will blow itself out within the next 6 months either that or a treatment will be found


    6 months can still have an impact on the property market, i was thinking if we get in any lock down scenario what's going to happen


  • #1031
    PommieBast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    19233974 wrote: »
    both small investors selling up. Seems to be a few apts slowly coming onto the market and all the ones ive viewed have been small landlords selling up.
    Same story everywhere. Most other buyers I've met are also people who have been turfed out by landlords..


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  • #1032
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    6 months can still have an impact on the property market, i was thinking if we get in any lock down scenario what's going to happen

    The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?


  • #1033
    enricoh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,971 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?

    Good jaysus, full of the joys of spring asset backed!!


  • #1034
    Sunny Disposition
    Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Have arranged the sale of two properties in Dublin in the last few weeks, was easy enough to get a good price, but wouldn’t be sure it’ll stay that way. Huge profits made in six years, but now is surely a good time to sell, something has to change with housing, can’t stay so expensive long term.
    Have a couple of other places away from Dublin, but hanging onto them for the long haul.


  • #1035
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    enricoh wrote: »
    Good jaysus, full of the joys of spring asset backed!!

    :D:o

    My initial thoughts on the link between Corona virus impact to Irish housing!


  • #1036
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Sunny Disposition wrote: »
    Have arranged the sale of two properties in Dublin in the last few weeks, was easy enough to get a good price, but wouldn’t be sure it’ll stay that way. Huge profits made in six years, but now is surely a good time to sell, something has to change with housing, can’t stay so expensive long term.
    Have a couple of other places away from Dublin, but hanging onto them for the long haul.

    David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.


  • #1037
    ml100
    Registered Users Posts: 404 ✭✭ml100


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?

    That is some statement, are people that desperate!, the Coronavirus is more likely to reduce demand as the multinational companies tighten their belts.

    If things get that bad that we want the state to force our sick and elderly in nursing homes to sell their houses then we may need to look at where some of this demand is coming from, i.e our immigration policy and our social welfare policy, why import workers when we have people that won't work!


  • #1038
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,649 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    ml100 wrote: »
    That is some statement, are people that desperate!, the Coronavirus is more likely to reduce demand as the multinational companies tighten their belts.

    If things get that bad that we want the state to force our sick and elderly in nursing homes to sell their houses then we may need to look at where some of this demand is coming from, i.e our immigration policy and our social welfare policy, why import workers when we have people that won't work!

    a few multinationals based in Ireland have already put a hold on any foreign travel for workers and also on foreign workers coming in to join their teams here


  • #1039
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    a few multinationals based in Ireland have already put a hold on any foreign travel for workers and also on foreign workers coming in to join their teams here


    I know of one who put on hold recruitment for Italian workers, company is based in Santry


  • #1040
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    "Stockmarkets around the world have dropped significantly today as the threat of the coronavirus caused investors to panic"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/markets-hub/


  • #1041
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,998 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

    Or another way of looking at it, he has made a significant amount of money in 6 years, well above other investment returns. Capitalizing those gains might not be a bad thing.


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  • #1042
    lcwill
    Registered Users Posts: 259 ✭✭lcwill


    Cuddlesworth wrote: »
    Or another way of looking at it, he has made a significant amount of money in 6 years, well above other investment returns. Capitalizing those gains might not be a bad thing.

    Some of them might just be looking to lock in tax free gains.

    An example:

    Bought for 100 in 2013, now worth 200k - assume flat house prices for the next few years:.

    Sell this year (7+0), capital gains tax = zero
    Sell next year, 7 + 1, capitals gains tax = 4k
    7 + 2, capital gains tax = 7k
    7 + 3, capital gains tax = 10k

    Tax owed = (((Current price - purchase price)/ X)* (X-7)) * .33

    Where X is years since purchase.

    Prices need to keep rising more than 2-3% per year just to keep ahead of your growing tax bill. Just another risk it would be nice to avoid. Numbers are even worse if prices start to drop

    Wouldn't be surprised if some landlords are using it as a good moment to get out, but others might be doubling down and reinvesting in other properties, but with capital gains tax liability reset to zero.

    Main losers: sitting tenants getting turfed out of the homes so landlords can manage their tax liabilities.


  • #1043
    Sunny Disposition
    Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.




    It's a guess of where we are in the cycle coupled with my own lack of appetite for risk, that's all.
    I think we are probably fairly close or just past the end of a great spell for property investors, because building has increased and there is a demand to curb the high prices of rent.
    These are good things, but also good reasons to get out at this point, especially given I made far more than I was expecting when I got back into it. I'm hanging onto the few I have in Clare, think the ones I still hold here are unlikely to lose value really.

    The post you wrote there could have been written in 2007 to someone selling investment properties. I just haven't the appetite for risk, very happy without how I've done out of a few recession time investments, and everyone must know by now that there is risk associated with investing in property.

    Other people might be happy to remain landlords with the opportunity and risk associated, good luck to them, it's just not for me in Dublin right now.


  • #1044
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

    This happens on a fairly widespread basis , a bit like the Lemmings , sentiment changes and everyone wants out,in the last recession it happened over a couple of months and suddenly there were no buyers only sellers.


  • #1045
    quokula
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,666 ✭✭✭quokula


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    David McWilliams talks about this a good bit; the notion that markets, at a certain point, move based on mood rather than calculated data. An example of this is seen with your statement above, that you no longer see the sky as the limit and think that the going has been good for so long that it surely cannot continue. Based on what? The economy and population is still expected to grow, MNCs are continuing to expand, Brexit has had no negative impact on Ireland in the 4 years it has been going on and yet people are starting to get worried for some reason.

    Brexit hasn't been going on for 4 years. Discussions about it have been going on for 4 years, but it hasn't happened yet.

    It actually happens at the end of this year, and that will be the first time its effects will be felt, whatever those effects may be.


  • #1046
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    ...Has anyone paid any attention on what is going on with the global stock market right now?
    Link below is a live update, all markets dropped 3 to 4 points

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/markets-hub/


  • #1047
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,100 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    ...Has anyone paid any attention on what is going on with the global stock market right now?
    Link below is a live update, all markets dropped 3 to 4 points

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/markets-hub/

    It sounds worse than it is. Look at VOO, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. It's currently at $297.23 and down nearly 3% so far today and I'm pretty sure it was down on Friday as well. It was around this price on January 27th and actually lower on January 31st where it was $295.69. So, it has only lost about a months worth of growth.

    Obviously, it could get a lot worse but the current drop isn't as bad as it initially sounds.


  • #1048
    Sunny Disposition
    Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    On a more local level, do ye think the fundamentals of the property market are sound? I don't, prices went very high because there was very little built for a number of years and the FG government were kinda focused on private sector solutions. There's a pretty big political backlash demanding cheaper housing, would expect that will deliver something within a couple of years, be it a rent freeze or a very increased level of public sector building.


  • #1049
    Sleepy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,268 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    For all those harping on about Sinn Fein in the thread, remember that for all their shouty rhetoric and despite their 24.5% of the popular vote, they still only have 23% of the seats. That means for every person who voted for them, three didn't and with the two other large parties refusing to have anything to do with them, they're just going to be a slightly louder opposition party than they were last time around. They haven't been "voted in" and you can be sure they'll continue to be ignored by the other parties.


  • #1050
    lastusername
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭lastusername


    Sunny Disposition wrote: »
    On a more local level, do ye think the fundamentals of the property market are sound? I don't, prices went very high because there was very little built for a number of years and the FG government were kinda focused on private sector solutions. There's a pretty big political backlash demanding cheaper housing, would expect that will deliver something within a couple of years, be it a rent freeze or a very increased level of public sector building.


    Seems to me that residential properties in the low-medium end of the market (the bulk of them) will fall slightly in price over the next 3-5 years. Higher-priced houses will probably hold their value overall.


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  • #1051
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    The vulnerable people to the Corona virus are the elderly, many of whom own their own houses in Ireland. Maybe, in the event of the spread of the Corona virus, their deaths result in more supply of housing?
    Charming


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