Waterford Politics MEGATHREAD

Gardner wrote: »

just watch Dail on the Dole there. very sad and it opens your eyes up to the failed systems the FG/LAB government have in place.

was sad in places yeah. I dont think blaming FG/Lab for all of it is balanced though. Mostly glass workers who went out of business, cant blame any party for that. FF made the recession worse by laying the foundations for a massive recession. More can be done and should be done but we still dont have the money, still borrowing, still under-resourced hospitals, schools, childcare mess etc etc, all issues for decades, all should be priorities along with helping people back to work.

hardybuck wrote: »

I would say that there is little or no chance of an independent getting a post such as Social Protection. I should also add that these independents and others forming alliances before being elected is quite presumptuous as none of them know if they'll be elected or not.

I doubt that there will be a hung Dail. Support for the Government parties has surged in the last 3 months. I fully expect this to continue over the next 12 months before GE 2016. Joan Burton is apparently the most popular leader.

Party support levels can be difficult to measure in terms of seats. In the last election for example Labour had 19.4% of the vote and had 37 seats, while FF had 17.4% of the vote and got only 20 seats. While the support for independents as a whole is high, nobody knows how this will translate into elected TDs - I would suspect it would be a very fractured vote.

As I've been saying for quite some time, I fully expect it to be FG and Labour again, with any shortfall being made up by a group of 'moderate' independents, probably of FG's choosing. Renua or others might come into the mix.

I thought someone would mention this yesterday, but I think it's worth noting the latest opinion poll results yesterday http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll-shows-fine-gael-back-on-top-as-it-regains-confidence-of-key-voters-1.2215958

This highlights the continued increase in Government, and really by that I mean FG support, in recent months. Labour seem to be static on 7%. What is key when you drill down into the figures is the return of support among groups that backed them heavily in 2011, i.e. the rural and over 65s.

Expect over the next 10-11 months for the 'squeezed middle class' vote to go in a similar direction with the improved economic conditions, probably the banks passing on savings from interest rate cuts, and a favourable package in the October budget.

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

There is a few flaws in your arguement. The first is that the increase in suport for FF is the same as FG (almost). Also this is not core support which is in fact much lower for all parties. If the "squeezed middle" are being squeezed by the government then why would they go back to them in droves? There is a lot of ifs, buts and maybes there. Will the government be scandal free for the next 11 months? I seriously doubt it. Will there be no IW style incompetence or parish pump antics with regard to hospitals etc? Definitely not! But the real story here is for people who are advocating a strategic vote for an independent candidate. The government parties will not have enough seats for a new government. And there are also two other players SF and FF. So for Waterford it is an ideal situation to vote strategically. Something along the lines of 1FG,1FF, 1SF and 1 Independent.

Oh yeah, absolutely FF have gone up too. But at the moment for me they're too far behind, I don't think have the ability to figure in a Government this time around, and I think they'd nearly admit that themselves. The best place for them is probably opposition until they rebuild a bit more.

For me the squeezed middle will go in a couple of different directions, but they'll tend to go more towards who's giving them money in January 2016.

Scandals are always a risk, however we've seen for that most parties don't seem to be too badly impacted by them. SF have a hardcore that will seemingly be unmoved by any type of scandal, and FF got more popular in the past whenever they had a bit of scandal. Which was often.

I think we'll definitely see more independents, Renuas and the AAAs in the future, but I just can't see that vote being coordinated in any real strategic fashion. Time will tell.

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

anyone that's out working and paying a mortgage wont go near sf/aaa/halligan's crew/social democrats etc. All they keep on about is the "Scandinavian Model" of "progressive" taxation. In other words, they'll fleece everyone who's doing a day's work!

no they won't, they will do the same that this government is doing

I wonder would it be too much to hope for in the run up to the election for people to make it known here (if they wish) if they've a political affiliation or membership. I often wonder when I see people on social media badly disguising their love for fianna whatever if they think people haven't copped it. Its generally pretty obvious.

It might just give the more non alligned among us a bit of a heads up on where people are in terms of views/sides.

I find the party system very closely linked to sports club mentality. I can't fathom spending time / agreeing with / supporting the fella up the road because his jersey is a different colour to mine. I want to see his team lose matches and I want lots of people to like my team more. In reality, that seems to be the core of the existing party structures because everyone's trying to get the ball between the posts anyway.

Having said that, I like the idea of the social democrats. They are a party but I'll be watching closely to see do they behave like the existing parties we have to choose from. I can see them doing well. I can't bring myself to offer much joy on the doorstep to the existing parties anyway. Fianna Fáil presided over the country's downfall. FG in opposition seemed to push for more of the exact policies that they now criticise. Labour were very vocal in opposition but have lost my confidence completely. The problem I have here is the expectation that we'll have to choose from the party that oversaw the recession or the 2 parties that claim to be restoring the economy but in a way that has in this term led to the alienation of my home city from that plan (In my opinion!).

It'll take a lot to move me away from independents or social democrats if they continue to tick my political boxes.

Do parties employ people to trawl social media or boards to post as regular users on their behalf? It would seem logical I guess if a bit shifty? Also, do parties actively encourage members to try to remain anonymous and post the party line on the internet. Again it would make sense I suppose. I just enjoy watching the process of elections and this will be the most twitterised / social media focussed of them all so far I would imagine.

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

anyone that's out working and paying a mortgage wont go near sf/aaa/halligan's crew/social democrats etc. All they keep on about is the "Scandinavian Model" of "progressive" taxation. In other words, they'll fleece everyone who's doing a day's work!

A lot like the current rabble in government do.....................:rolleyes:

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

anyone that's out working and paying a mortgage wont go near sf/aaa/halligan's crew/social democrats etc. All they keep on about is the "Scandinavian Model" of "progressive" taxation. In other words, they'll fleece everyone who's doing a day's work!

not as if we are getting fleeced as it is at the moment is any different.

i will be voting independent again as "halligans crew" have been a breath of fresh air in this Dail term. in fact the whole technical group have been excellent in opposition. ff and sf have been very poor in dail exchanges from what i seen over the last 4 years.

halligan will come close to topping the poll with cullinane and deasy very close behind. conway is gone and paudie is in alot of trouble.

hardybuck wrote: »

Do you know that a single person in Denmark making the average industrial wage or below that amount pays roughly 13 times more tax than their Irish equivalent?

Do they pay the same amount of charges and levies on utility bills, insurance, mortgages, pensions and so on?

hardybuck wrote: »

We're talking mainly about taxes here and the concept that if you want more you need to contribute more.

I haven't done any detailed analysis of Denmark, but I know it's an extremely expensive country to live in. You get good services for that, and nice public spaces etc., but you've paid for them.

Things like rent, property prices are roughly 20% higher than Ireland, and that will have an obvious impact on mortgages. Utilities are about 10-15% higher than Ireland.

heard a fella on the radio months back, saying for all the money we put into the HSE, when compared with other countries and their systems, we should have a top class system so with that, my own experiences and what i hear on the radio/tv/papers, throwing more tax money at the HSE may not be whats most needed. Granted some things like child care, disabled and elderly care are woefully underfunded, you could argue the money is not getting to where it needs to go.

hardybuck wrote: »

We're talking mainly about taxes here and the concept that if you want more you need to contribute more.

I haven't done any detailed analysis of Denmark, but I know it's an extremely expensive country to live in. You get good services for that, and nice public spaces etc., but you've paid for them.

Things like rent, property prices are roughly 20% higher than Ireland, and that will have an obvious impact on mortgages. Utilities are about 10-15% higher than Ireland.

But isnt that how the spinsters brag about how low Irelands taxes are compared to other countries?

Comparisons are not accurate if you say (for example) "only 20% of a persons income is taxed" and then leave out the bit where another 20% is gone in the form of additional levies and charges applied to all the compulsory bills and contributions people pay for, without including the government imposed increases to business costs (bin companies for example) that get passed on to the people in the form of increased charges.

I dont think anyone disputes that things need to be paid for but to be fair to the tax, charges and levy payers the government is not prioritising spending or managing its departments and bodies effectively. Instead they just keep taking more to paper over the cracks.

Ludicrous situation.

From what i can see, certain individual pricing seems to be slightly less expensive in Ireland compared to Denmark. However, where Ireland is dearer it is upwards of 40 and 50%

In terms of living here in Ireland rents are higher, average disposable salary after tax are lower, mortgage rates are higher. So yeah, you can say Ireland tax rate is 48% and Denmark is 55% but what i am highlighting is the other things that government has chipping away at disposable income.

Only two years ago it was found the average disposable income had dropped for the fourth year in a row. I don't imagine people to be in better financial position today.

hardybuck wrote: »

Where have you seen that info on items which were dearer? Were they 50% of a low priced item or high priced?

Certainly from what you see around the country people are definitely spending more money in pubs, restaurants, holidays etc. That would seem to indicate people either have more disposable income or they're more confident about spending it.

A liter of milk is almost 20% dearer here, beer is 54%, cigarettes are 74%, monthly transportation pass is almost 85% dearer.
Straight away you can see extra cost on a basic household consumable, big increases for simple social items and a large increase in order to get to the place you work to earn the money to pay for the previous items.

That increase could easily be attributed to the seasons and tourism.

Hijpo wrote: »

A liter of milk is almost 20% dearer here, beer is 54%, cigarettes are 74%, monthly transportation pass is almost 85% dearer.
Straight away you can see extra cost on a basic household consumable, big increases for simple social items and a large increase in order to get to the place you work to earn the money to pay for the previous items.

That increase could easily be attributed to the seasons and tourism.

So a litre of milk is from 75c to €1. Denmark is 20% cheaper so that's 15c to 20c of a saving. A pint of beer is say €5.40 (a bit on the high side but we'll go with it) that's probably €2.50 - 3.00 cheaper. Monthly transportation price difference doesn't factor in the tax saver I'd imagine which can knock 52% off the price of a ticket.

You're comparing pennies and pounds on milk compared to large expenditure differences on rent and income tax.

By coincidence I was just speaking to someone this morning who was on holidays in Copenhagen last week and advised that prices were significantly higher.

Hijpo wrote: »

Given that the richer in society stand to benefit more from the recent budget its hard to attribute and significant increases in stats to the general population of this country. So the figures and stats amount to them just being figures and stats and cannot be accurately/directly attributed to any claims the citizens of Ireland are flush again.
Perhaps the increase in retail is to do with more immigrants coming to Ireland and its not actually low-mid income families spending more?

A lot like the claims the increase in suicides was a direct result of the recession? Suicides went up a long with unemployment but can one directly influence the other? by how much? significantly?


Im comparing items that are regularly bought in bulk. If you buy three pints that is an extra €9 above Denmark for example.

The point im making with regards income tax and disposable income is that its not a true comparison when put beside the likes of Denmark that implement higher income taxes because of the extra levies and charges applied to necessities and compulsory outgoings here.

I was speaking to a taxi driver in Dublin and he said its dearer here........

Listen, I've given you probably a dozen economic indicators, tax comparisons and cost of living comparisons. If you don't want to believe cold hard facts then that's your own business.

I suppose the rich will end up paying for the services regardless. They'll either buy them when they need them and they're paying for them now via their taxes anyway.

You mention all the immigrants rushing to Ireland, are they rushing to this utopian Danish society?