September 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 08-09-2011 5:28pm

Report on the first week (1-7 Sept) ...

IMT at 13.1 C

Rainfall for the eleven stations in met summary at 160% of normal

Sunshine (est due to one station incomplete) at 50% of normal

I have the feeling we will be repeating these values after 14 days, give or take, but longer range models show the third week with potential for more sun and less rain. If that verified, these rather extreme values (compared to contest ranges) might begin to fade more into the contest consensus range.

Temperatures may actually rise a bit in the coming week with a warmer period starting today and perhaps lasting through Monday. The expected rise will be rather modest by the 14th however.

MiNdGaM3 · 10-09-2011 12:24pm

22.2C in Mullingar yesterday, highest of the month so far.

NIALL D · 10-09-2011 1:04pm

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

22.2C in Mullingar yesterday, highest of the month so far.

any idea of the hottest day this year ?
i think the highest in august was 25.5 ?

MiNdGaM3 · 10-09-2011 4:53pm

NIALL D wrote: »

any idea of the hottest day this year ?
i think the highest in august was 25.5 ?

According to the Met Eireann, the warmest day was the 3rd of June. Got to 25.5C in Oak Park.
http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=127

M.T. Cranium · 15-09-2011 8:03pm

Update after 14 days ...

The second week averaged 14.1 and this leaves the monthly average for the IMT at 13.7 ... it peaked at 13.9 on the 11th-12th.

Rainfall in the past week was very close to normal (96%) for the eleven stations and this drops the monthly average to 128% of normal.

Sunshine was up slightly from the first week at 69% but the running average is still a very dull 60% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 22-09-2011 8:12pm

UPDATE _ after 21 days
_______________________

The IMT for the past seven days was 12.8 C and this brings the monthly average down to about 13.4 C ... with only a slight further drop appearing likely, if not staying level.

The past week was slightly on the wet side at 114% which leaves the monthly average at 123% of normal. I suspect this won't change much with some wet days and a dry spell in the forecast to complete the month.

Sunshine remains elusive. The third week averaged 78% and might have been lower except that the Ag Report now routinely excludes Dublin which used to be in the report. I'm going to need to resolve this issue for reporting the weekly totals because Dublin will probably remain in the monthly summary reports. So assume that my running totals for this month might be a few percentage points off in whatever direction Dublin is different from the trend, by the looks of the data, it has been cloudier still. Anyway, that 78% figure changes the monthly average to a meagre 66% (which could still be above the real figure). Not much change likely with this either since the next three or four days could be mostly cloudy ... any late spell of fine weather will only be able to boost the eventual average into the 70-80 per cent range.

Joe Public · 24-09-2011 10:13pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ after 21 days
_______________________

The IMT for the past seven days was 12.8 C and this brings the monthly average down to about 13.4 C ... with only a slight further drop appearing likely, if not staying level.

Should the IMT not be expected to rise by next friday due to higher expected temps than the previous days/nights in September?

Su Campu · 24-09-2011 10:45pm

MT, the sun hours are reported in the 0600Z synop reports the following morning. Put in 03969 here and it'll give a list of daily values for Dublin Airport.

pauldry · 24-09-2011 11:26pm

yes id say the IMT(Cranium) will rise to about 13.8c by the end of the month. hey is the tonynator going to run a max temp contest for this unusual warm spell. The West will do well to get to 20 but you never know. September sunshine would bring it up a little bit more. The weird thing is it could get very cold after this spell.

thetonynator · 25-09-2011 2:45am

pauldry wrote: »

yes id say the IMT(Cranium) will rise to about 13.8c by the end of the month. hey is the tonynator going to run a max temp contest for this unusual warm spell. The West will do well to get to 20 but you never know. September sunshine would bring it up a little bit more. The weird thing is it could get very cold after this spell.

Will set it up tomorrow if ya want, or if someone else wants to feel free!

thetonynator · 25-09-2011 10:21pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Will set it up tomorrow if ya want, or if someone else wants to feel free!

Have started a thread there this evening.

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2011 4:47pm

Report after 28 days ...

The fourth week has been relatively warm at 14.2 C. This leaves the IMT sitting at an estimated 13.6, likely to edge up after today and finish around 13.8 C. Of our forecasts, Octo came closest but we were all on the cool side no doubt influenced by the trend of the summer months. I'm not sure if the mercy rule will come into play, perhaps marginally. Since the flash contest specified all stations for the max and Phoenix Park reported 25.6 C, I am going to avoid any inconsistency by taking that (if it holds up) regardless of whether it appears in the monthly summary or not. And as far as I recall we have not been below 3.7 C yet, nor likely to go there tonight.

On the rainfall front, the past week was dry generally (especially the east) with 64% of the normal. This leaves the month sitting at 108% of normal. It could go up slightly again if there are significant downpours Friday, but probably not much, 110% looks about right for the finish.

Sunshine improved a bit to 86% and some stations were actually well above normal, however, the month will definitely come in "dull" especially compared to the range of our forecasts. The estimated value as of now is 70-72 per cent and should finish around there.

Two reminders then, the October forecast contest is posted, and scoring for September should appear on Monday 3rd some time when the figures are in after the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 30-09-2011 9:28am

Approximate scoring for September. You can bank on the IMT, max, min, and bonus here, and the rain/sun should be fairly close to being correct, but watch for a final version in the Annual scoring thread some time around Monday 3rd (evening).

Forecaster ......... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Dub-4th
________________________________________________________________

based on ........... 13.7 ..... 25.6 ..... 3.7 ..... 110 ..... 070 ..... 15.4/5.0

octo .................. 23 ..... 16* ..... 05*..... 10 ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 65
Su Campu ........... 16 ..... 16* ..... 06* .... 12 ..... 02 .... 10 ..... 62
H2UMrsRobinson ... 21 ..... 02* ..... 18* .... 12 .... 04 ..... 01 ..... 58
traecy1 ............. 16 ..... 10* ..... 07* .... 13 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 56
John mac ............ 12 ..... 03* .... 12* .... 15 ..... 03 ..... 09 ..... 54
Deep Easterly ..... 17 ..... 09* ..... 04* .... 10 ..... 04 ..... 10 ..... 54
DOCARCH ........... 18 ..... 02* ..... 06* .... 14 ..... 05 ..... 08 ..... 53
kindredspirit ....... 15 ..... 01* ..... 08* .... 15 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 53
MiNdGaM3 .......... 18 ..... 11* ..... 02* .... 05 ..... 06 ..... 09 ..... 51
Joe Public .......... 17 ..... 18* ..... 00 ...... 08 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 51
danno**............. 19 ..... 09* ..... 16* .... 05 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 50
Jerry Seinfeld ...... 19 ..... 01* ..... 05* .... 10 ..... 06 ..... 09 ..... 50
okla ................... 16 ..... 00 ...... 14* .... 08 ..... 06 ..... 03 ..... 47
rameire .............. 16 ..... 02* ..... 06* .... 15 ..... 06 ..... 01 ..... 46
nilhg ................. 17 ..... 08* ..... 00 ..... 09 ...... 02 ..... 10 ..... 46

Con Sensus ........ 14 ..... 01* ..... 00 .... 15 ..... 06 ..... 10 ..... 46

dacogawa ......... 09 ..... 14* .... 00 ..... 11 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 46
M.T. Cranium ...... 17 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 05 ..... 45
Fionagus ............ 14 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 15 ..... 05 ..... 10 ..... 45
redsunset .......... 20 ..... 02* .... 02* .... 12 ..... 05 ..... 03 ..... 44
hellboy99 ........... 14 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 11 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 44
Rickylovesuall ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 11* .... 11 ..... 04 ..... 03 ..... 43
thetonynator ...... 18 ..... 01* ..... 09* ... 07 ..... 00 .... 07 ..... 42
Strasser ............ 14 ..... 00 ...... 06* .... 10 .... 06 ..... 06 ..... 42
dasa29 ............. 16 ..... 07* ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 42
4Sheets ............ 15 ..... 01* ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 41
snowstreams ..... 12 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 13 ..... 05 ..... 10 ...... 40
Harps ............... 16 ..... 03* ..... 00 .... 12 ..... 06 ..... 02 ..... 39
homolumo ......... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 12 ..... 07 ..... 06 ..... 39
NIALL_D ........... 08 ..... 00 ...... 05* ... 15 ..... 06 ..... 05 ..... 39
Sponge Bob ....... 09 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 14 ..... 06 ..... 08 ..... 38
jambofc ........... 07 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 15 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 38
mickger844posts . 15 ..... 00 ..... 02*.... 13 ..... 04 ..... 03 ..... 37
nacho libre ........ 14 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 36
waterways ........ 13 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 09 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 36
fizzycyst ........... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 06 ..... 05 ..... 35
talkabout .......... 08 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 15 ..... 05 ..... 07 ..... 35
Tae laidir ........... 13 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 06 ..... 07 ..... 34
cherryghost ...... 08 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 10 ..... 34
Iancar29 ........... 10 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 10 ..... 05 ..... 02 ..... 34
ch750536* ........ 12 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 14 ..... 04 ...... 03 ..... 33
pauldry ............ 07 ..... 00 ...... 01* ... 10 ..... 06 ..... 08 ..... 32
jd* .................. 10 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 09 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 31
200motels ......... 12 ..... 00 ..... 02* .... 02 .... 08 ..... 03 ..... 27
The Inquisitor .... 04 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 27
SeaFields .......... 01 ..... 00 ..... 01* ... 13 ..... 06 ..... 03 ..... 24
demakinz .......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 08 ..... 00 ..... 16

NOTES: No penalties were assessed (scores not higher than criteria).

* For max and min, the scores are adjusted from "minimum progression" rule

Scores may change slightly for some elements when final figures are available.

Congrats to Octo and Su Campu for leading the way this month, and looking good H2UMrsR ... where have you gone Joe diMaggio?

(IMT may turn out a bit higher, Octo will stay at 23 with our minimum scoring rule and most other scores will drop 1-2 if this happens ... if there is an absolute deluge today then 110 may be more like 115 for rainfall, scores there could change by 1-2).

Final scores to be posted around Monday in annual scoring thread.

pauldry · 01-10-2011 11:57am

there was an absolute deluge MT

Oak Park had 46.5mm!! :eek:out of a monthly average of 71mm

Over 20mm at numerous other stations

Deep Easterly · 01-10-2011 4:19pm

Final IMT for September finished at 13.7c. around 1.0c above the 61-90 norm.

Interestingly, September finished 0.03c warmer than August! which makes it the 2nd warmest month of the year (July was warmer at 14.4c)

IMT mean max for the month finished spot on normal at 16.8c, but the mean min value finished previous at 10.5c, which is 1.8c above the 61-90 average and which seems to be a current trend for September over the last couple of years.

IMR rainfall % of normal (not used in competition) finished at 131.6%.

Sir M.T will have all the other essential stats on Monday.

Joe Public · 01-10-2011 7:44pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

... if there is an absolute deluge today then 110 may be more like 115 for rainfall, scores there could change by 1-2).

A two day deluge at this stage with a threat of another half day or so.

Tae laidir · 02-10-2011 1:38am

Pity September didn't have 31 Days!

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2011 3:46am

The provisional estimate I made for rainfall anticipated some of the Friday rainfall although I am expecting to find the actual values a bit higher than I used for scoring. If you predicted more than 110% you'll see a gain in points and if not, well, hope I was off on some other estimate too.

H2UMrsRobinson · 02-10-2011 9:56am

Woohoo! Chuffed with that score. More luck than judgement though :-)

octo · 02-10-2011 9:36pm

Yes, Fame at last! I always knew my day would one day come.

The big question is, can I put this on my CV?

H2UMrsRobinson · 03-10-2011 5:03pm

octo wrote: »

Yes, Fame at last! I always knew my day would one day come.

The big question is, can I put this on my CV?

Not only can you put it on your CV, you can redeem it for free beer/wine/spirits in any pub IN THE WORLD...as long as it's snowing outside

(big fat lie)

pauldry · 03-10-2011 5:05pm

and you can go tsssssk when you see Evelyn Cusack on TV

M.T. Cranium · 03-10-2011 5:10pm

Okay, remember I did say "approximate scoring" and my estimate on the rainfall turned out about 10% too low, it was actually 119% and change. That is handy in just one way, it allows me to convert the scores by plus or minus three except for those between the two values. So my extra work is minimal, which is how I like it. I would still go ahead and mention it in the C.V. if you beat C.S. who drops a bit now (ha ha).

(C.S. is not really a person in case you think I'm being nasty, well actually it is all of us together -- group hug).

Also the sunshine hours turned out to be 72% of normal which is not going to affect the scoring much although I did check the numbers, in every case it helps you by a point here or there.

The IMT as DE stated was 13.7, and the max 25.6 at Phoenix Park (28th) but my memory of the minimum was slightly defective, it was 3.9 (1st Dublin) which again won't change any scores because of the use of the "mercy rule" which maintains everyone's score there.

What happens now? As I slowly wake up here after a dreadful all-nighter on a different agenda, I hope to post the adjusted scoring quite soon over in the annual thread and then if I can stay awake I will update the annual, otherwise do that closer to 9 p.m. your time. Sorry about the slight changes, or glad to be of help, depending on which way you go. If anyone has overlooked October, get over there soon before I lock the door.

September 2011 Boards forecast contest

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