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October 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Confirmed scoring for October 2018


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Low max 31st ___ TOTAL


    Kindred Spirit ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 19 _ 11 _ 07 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 __ 79

    Rikand _________________21 _ 11 _ 14 _ 12 _ 10 _____ 6 _ 1 ______ 75

    Adam240610 ____________25 _ 10 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 69

    JCX_BXC _______________ 21 _ 16 _ 11 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 1 ______ 68

    Jpmarn ________________ 24 _ 03 _ 11 _ 12 _ 09 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 67

    Rameire ________________24 _ 09 _ 09 _ 13 _ 04 _____ 7 _ 0 ______ 66

    sryanbruen _____________ 23 _ 07 _ 13 _ 11 _ 05 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 66

    200motels ______________ 20 _ 17 _ 05 _ 14 _ 04 _____ 1 _ 3 ______ 64


    Con Sensus ______________22 _ 10 _ 09 _ 10 _ 06 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 64


    Dacogawa ______________ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 08 _ 02 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 __ 63

    M.T. Cranium ____________15 _ 18 _ 12 _ 07 _ 04 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 63

    pauldry ________________ 21 _ 12 _ 08 _ 12 _ 04 _____ 2 _ 3 ______ 62

    Joe Public ______________ 20 _ 01 _ 19 _ 13 _ 05 _____ 3 _ 1 ______ 62

    waterways ______________23 _ 08 _ 11 _ 09 _ 07 _____ 0 _ 3 ______ 61

    sdanseo ________________19 _ 11 _ 10 _ 02 _ 06 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 ___58

    DOCARCH ______________ 13 _ 14 _ 02 _ 14 _ 08 _____ 4 _ 2 ______ 57

    sunflower3 ______________22 _ 10 _ 09 _ 06 _ 04 _____ 3 _ 2 ______ 56


    ___ NormaL ____________ 20 _ 13 _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 3 ______ 56


    BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) ____17 _ 01 _ 17 _ 14 _ 07 _____ 1 _ 1 _ 58-3=55

    MrSkinner _______________22 _ 10 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 54

    mickger844posts _________ 16 _ 07 _ 03 _ 13 _ 08 _____ 4 _ 2 ______ 53

    Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 08 _ 05 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 53

    Artane2002 _____________ 22 _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 _ 07 _____ 3 _ 2 ______ 50

    Bsal ____________________22 _ 02 _ 01 _ 08 _ 05 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 46

    john mac ________________23 _ 02 _ 03 _ 07 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 1 ______ 46

    dasa29 _________________ 24 _ 00 _ 01 _ 06 _ 06 _____ 2 _ 2 ______ 41

    _______________________________________________________________

    MAX scores were boosted by 2 points, with any left at zero assessed for rank to receive 0, 1 or 2. MIN scores were boosted by one point with the same procedure for zero scores (0 or 1).

    PRC required the minimum progression boost. Scoring differentials were preserved by adding six to all raw scores.

    Congrats to kindred spirit and rikand for leading the pack in October ... the scores are probably final unless I find something unexpected in the MS tomorrow. After checking that, I will post the annual update.


    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Low max 31st


    DOCARCH ______________ 10.8 _ 20.3 _ -2.8 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 9.3 Ballyhaise

    M.T. Cranium ____________10.6 _ 21.5 _ -3.8 _ 105 _ 090 _____ 8.8 Ballyhaise

    mickger844posts _________10.5 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 110 _____ 9.2 Mullingar

    sdanseo ________________10.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.6 _ 110 _ 101 _____ 8.1 Ballyhaise

    200motels ______________ 10.1 _ 20.6 _ -3.1 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 12.0 Malin Head


    NormaL ________________ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 (loc'n by climatology)


    Tae laidir _______________ 10.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.6 _ 103 _ 093 _____ 8.4 Knock

    JCX_BXC _______________ 10.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 Gurteen

    pauldry ________________ 10.0 _ 20.1 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 092 ____ 11.0 Malin Head

    Rikand _________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 7.0 Mt. Dillon

    Dacogawa _______________ 9.9 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 102 _ 078 _____ 8.1 Mullingar

    MrSkinner _______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -0.9 _ 099 _ 099 _____ 9.0 Knock

    sunflower3 ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 10.0 Mullingar


    Con Sensus ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 097 _ 099 _____ 8.9 Mullingar**


    Kindred Spirit ____________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 093 _ 103 _____ 8.0 Mullingar

    Bsal ____________________9.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 101 _ 095 _____ 7.0 Mullingar

    waterways _______________9.8 _ 19.7 _ -5.7 _ 098 _ 103 ____ 14.1 Malin Head

    john mac ________________9.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 9.5 Mt. Dillon

    Rameire _________________9.7 _ 19.8 _ -3.5 _ 089 _ 089 _____ 7.9 Mace Head

    Adam240610 _____________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Mullingar

    Jpmarn _________________ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.7 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 7.0 Knock

    dasa29 __________________9.5 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 11.0 Mullingar

    sryanbruen ______________ 9.4 _ 19.6 _ -3.9 _ 095 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Knock

    Artane2002 ______________ 9.3 _ 18.7 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 10.2 Knock

    Joe Public ________________9.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.9 _ 088 _ 093 _____ 5.8 Dunsany

    BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) _____ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -5.0 _ 085 _ 103 _____ 2.3 Mount Dillion


  • #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here's the annual update, the scoring for October was correct so this is now confirmed. Checking the additions while in edit mode.

    Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Oct)

    (8/10)
    rank _FORECASTER ______ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT _ TOTAL <--rank _ best 8/10

    01 _ Pauldry_____________ 73 _ 58 _ 89 _ 48 _ 76 _ 59 _ 78 _ 62 _ 66 _ 62 __ 671 __ 01 ____ 565
    02 _ waterways __________ 81 _ 34 _ 51 _ 73 _ 76 _ 46 _ 83 _ 64 _ 64 _ 61 __ 633 __ 04 ____ 553

    (03) Con Sensus _________ 73 _ 67 _ 69 _ 51 _ 71 _ 54 _ 84 _ 56 _ 59 _ 64 __ 648 __(02) ____ 543

    03 _ sryanbruen __________56 _ 71 _ 65 _ 60 _ 74 _ 46 _ 85 _ 65 _ 36 _ 66 __ 624 __ 06 ____ 542

    (04) NormaL ____________ 75 _ 52 _ 48 _ 71 _ 63 _ 31 _ 59 _ 85 _ 79 _ 56 __ 619 __(07) ____ 540

    04 _ Rameire ____________ 52 _ 56 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 44 _ 88 _ 67 _ 67 _ 66 __ 632 __ 05 ____ 539
    05 _ Dacogawa ___________71 _ 67 _ 70 _ 67 _ 63 _ 52 _ 71 _ 50 _ 65 _ 63 __ 639 __ 03 ____ 537
    06 _ Rikand ______________66 _ 64 _ 62 _ 61 _ 74 _ 65 _ 65 _ 51 _ 59 _ 75 __ 642 __ 02 ____ 532
    07 _ JCXBXC _____________34 _ 72 _ 54 _ 43 _ 77 _ 56 _ 78 _ 75 _ 41 _ 68 __ 598 __ 11 ____ 523
    08 _ DOCARCH ___________63 _ 62 _ 75 _ 61 _ 68 _ 42 _ 69 _ 47 _ 67 _ 57 __ 611 __ 09 ____ 522
    09 _ M.T. Cranium ________ 60 _ 45 _ 52 _ 56 _ 86 _ 49 _ 77 _ 50 _ 75 _ 63 __ 613 __ 08 ____ 519
    10 _ Joe Public ___________ 35 _ 62 _ 48 _ 81 _ 61 _ 66 _ 63 _ 56 _ 67 _ 62 __ 601 __ 10 ____ 518
    11 _ BLIZZARD7 __________27 _ 73 _ 46 _ 70 _ 92 _ 52 _ 48 _ 46 _ 81 _ 55 __ 590 __ 12 ____ 517
    12 _ Jpmarn _____________ 71 _ 61 _ 49 _ 57 _ 68 _ 60 _ 81 _ 51 _ 50 _ 67 __ 615 __ 07 ____ 516
    13 _ MrSkinner ___________73 _ 64 _ 72 _ 42 _ 69 _ 36 _ 68 _ 66 _ 41 _ 54 __ 585 __ 13 ____ 508
    14 _ Kindred Spirit ________ 59 _ 56 _ 55 _ 28 _ 66 _ 57 _ 77 _ 48 _ 47 _ 79 __ 572 __ 16 ____ 497
    15_ Tae laidir ____________ 78 _ 53 _ 63 _ 47 _ 61 _ 52 _ 67 _ 69 _ --- _ 53 __ 543 __ 18 ____ 491
    16 _ mickger844posts ______75 _ 77 _ 69 _ 42 _ 54 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 _ 50 _ 53 __ 575 __ 15 ____ 489
    17 _ sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 56 _ 63 _ 58 _ 57 _ 41 _ 65 _ 52 _ 64 _ 56 __ 580 __ 14 ____ 487
    18 _ sdanseo _____________45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 52 _ 57 _ 64 _ 65 _ --- _ 57 _ 58 __ 516 __ 22 ____ 471
    19 _ 200motels ___________36 _ 65 _ 47 _ 49 _ 85 _ 32 _ 62 _ 37 _ 55 _ 64 __ 532 __ 19 ____ 464
    20 _ john mac ____________48 _ 58 _ 58 _ 42 _ 63 _ 39 _ 67 _ 72 _ 51 _ 46 __ 544 __ 17 ____ 463
    21 _ dasa29 _____________ 69 _ 40 _ 83 _ 43 _ 54 _ 35 _ 57 _ 41 _ 67 _ 41 __ 530 __ 20 ____ 455
    22 _ Bsal ________________63 _ 49 _ 71 _ 38 _ 56 _ 34 _ 71 _ 44 _ 50 _ 46 __ 522 __ 21 ____ 450

    23 _ Adam240610 ________ --- _ --- _ 56 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ 64 _ 72 _ 51 _ 69 __ 312
    24 _ Lumi _______________ 54 _ 54 _ 62 _ --- _ 77 _ 55 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- __ 302
    25 _ Artane2002 __________--- _ --- _ ---_ 59 _ 57 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 50 __ 263
    ________________________________________________________________________________________

    No changes in the top two, then we have sryanbruen making a move through the logjam of Con Sensus and NormaL, and small exchanges of positions in the chase pack, Kindred Spirit moved up four ranks with his top score in October.

    Ranks for the 8/10 portion are the first number in each row.

    Ranks for the all score portion (most have 10/10 there) can be seen after the total scores.

    Ranks assigned to Con Sensus and NormaL do not affect your ranks, those are the ranks they would have if they were contest entrants.


  • #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    All scoring is now confirmed, the sunshine estimate was close enough at 122%, within margin of error for 120% and everything else looked the same. The October scoring was relatively uniform and nobody failed to use their October score in the best 8/10.

    The annual scoring has been added, and I've checked all the additions and subtractions to confirm the numbers there. It has become quite a large chase pack with only 15 points separating 7th and 13th places.


  • #55
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Sun needs to be scored out of 15 or 20 :P


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