October 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 11-10-2018 6:14pm

Finner has the new MAX at 21.1 C. If that holds, will require some boost from minimum progression but neither 200motels nor myself were close enough to apply the limiting factor (raw scores of 16 and 15).

M.T. Cranium · 15-10-2018 4:54pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 11.7, the second week average was 12.7, which is 1.9 above the normal for the period. Fairly certain that will be back into the high 10s by our next check.

MAX is now 21.1 (10th, Finner) while the previous MIN was --0.3 at Mullingar on 7th, tied on 14th at Markree (-0.3) as originally posted. That was a morning low and not at midnight on the way down to something colder, but eventually there were three readings of 0 deg this past morning also at Markree, Mountdillon and Mullingar, will have to see if the -0.3 was lowered at any of those locations. (now done, new MIN is --0.5 at Mountdillon, the other two stayed slightly above freezing). -- edit -- this post got changed three times, first I thought I agreed with the next post about -1.2, then realized that was in September not on 7th October. On checking I found another minor error about which stations were in the running for 15th. This is now all fixed up, I hope.

PRC is now a little above average at 105% with this past week rather wet, all eleven locations above normal and the average 160%. If the weather ran dry to end of the month however, this only guarantees about 50% as October is quite a wet month generally. Not saying it will but the trends are somewhat below normal at least in the next week or so.

SUN has improved to 85.4% with this past week at 103.3% (620/600). This should continue to improve given the outlook and the rather low average sunshine values in mid to late October.

pauldry · 16-10-2018 12:21am

Thought Mullingar got down to -1.2c on 7th October ...could be wrong though...who am I to say

M.T. Cranium · 16-10-2018 5:07pm

Confusion at first for me reading the above, but on further checking, that -1.2 was for the month of September and not registered on the 7th, that was -0.3.

So back to plan A, the new MIN is -0.5 on 15th at Mountdillon.

M.T. Cranium · 18-10-2018 6:50am

--2 at Mountdillon, Mullingar, and MTC's back garden (true story, and it's only 11 p.m. here so ... )

pauldry · 18-10-2018 12:07pm

ogimet has -2.4c Mullingar so see if Mount Dillon beats that

sryanbruen · 18-10-2018 12:16pm

pauldry wrote: »

ogimet has -2.4c Mullingar so see if Mount Dillon beats that

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1052880801895985153

M.T. Cranium · 18-10-2018 5:22pm

Our highest sunshine forecast was 120% (Rikand) and our lowest precip forecast was 85% (three shared that, DOCARCH, 200motels and BLIZZARD7). The way things are unfolding, we could reach 135% sunshine and stay down around 70% precip (when I say we, I mean you, as my month looks like 200% sunshine and 10% precip at the rate we're going, one clear day after another for a week now and several more to come). I suspect the IMT will settle back to low 10s by end of month but should remain slightly above normal. MAX almost certainly settled and leads to some scoring boost from minimum progression. MIN of -2.5 might be as low as it goes but several more chances to lower that appear next week.

Will edit this post if some later model run suggests a change in outlook.

M.T. Cranium · 22-10-2018 6:27pm

Report after the third week (15th to 21st) ...

IMT on 11.0 with the past week at 9.6 (0.5 below normal). Current model output suggests this may fall to 9.7 at the end of the month.

MAX is now 21.1 and MIN is --2.5. The MAX is evidently set but MIN could go a bit lower.

PRC has fallen to 74% of normal with this past week quite dry at 22% of normal rainfall. This will likely stay around 75% to end the month with some chances for top up amounts after it falls as low as 60% by Thursday evening, looks about normal from there to 31st.

SUN now on the rise, average is 111.7% after the past week managed a healthy 164.3% (986/600). This should finish at least as high as its current value and perhaps a bit higher, thinking it will be 125% by Thursday, then possibly fall off slightly although you don't need a lot of sunshine in late October to maintain a normal amount.

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2018 7:29am

Gurteen was reporting -4 C overnight, at 0300h and 0400h. Some other locations have fallen to -2 C. The IMT is estimated to be 10.4 after the cold Saturday and will be around 10.2 after today, possibly 10.1 ... so it's almost sure to fall into the 9's now as Monday to Wednesday look quite chilly, perhaps 9.8 for a landing point.

pauldry · 28-10-2018 12:42pm

see -4.4c on Ogimet at Gurteen

So around 2c IMT for the day brrrrrr

sryanbruen · 28-10-2018 2:06pm

pauldry wrote: »

see -4.4c on Ogimet at Gurteen

So around 2c IMT for the day brrrrrr

Second coldest October day on record then in terms of daily mean back to 2008 at the station.

Data comes from Met Éireann.

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2018 5:24pm

Report after four weeks ...

IMT was barely 10.1 (from 10.06) and looks set to end up around 9.6 now.

MAX remains 21.1 C.

MIN at Gurteen yesterday has been slightly revised to --4.5 C.

PRC now at 69% of normal with this past week only 23%. This may creep up slightly but likely won't reach 75%.

SUN has made it to 128.5% of normal now with this past week well above normal at 179.5% (1077/600) -- Cork reported an average of 7.2 hours a day and was 256%. That average for the 28 days guarantees an outcome above 116% but there may be rather little to add so it could end up closer to 120%.

Will post this and perhaps do some commenting on potential scoring soon as most of the values are going to be near the edges of our forecast ranges, then leave final scoring for when we know the bonus result and can confirm the actual values.

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2018 4:25pm

Monday lows not quite a match for the MIN, Tuesday (today) I noted -4 C at Dublin so this could produce a rival for the --4.5 we currently have.

IMT after 29 days was 10.0 C even. Drop did not quite match the raw math (day averaged about 4 C, should have dropped 0.2) so might have been rounding issues at individual stations. Will see what it hits after today and report on that tomorrow.

sryanbruen · 30-10-2018 4:26pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Monday lows not quite a match for the MIN, Tuesday (today) I noted -4 C at Dublin so this could produce a rival for the --4.5 we currently have.

IMT after 29 days was 10.0 C even. Drop did not quite match the raw math (day averaged about 4 C, should have dropped 0.2) so might have been rounding issues at individual stations. Will see what it hits after today and report on that tomorrow.

It got down to -4.3c according to Ogimet synops which was a new October record low for the station.

Artane2002 · 30-10-2018 5:27pm

Looks like this October will be one of those months where the mean doesn't tell the full story... it looks like we'll finish below average but you wouldn't know how warm it was at the start from that.

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2018 8:48am

New MIN of --4.7 at Dublin on 30th.

Now it's on to the bonus question, today's lowest MAX ... currently the lowest temperature is 2 degrees at Moore Park. Lots of fairly sound looking estimates in the contest table of entries.

pauldry · 31-10-2018 11:17pm

Last day min max appears to be in Malin Head or Knock around 7.5c to 8c

Tae laidir · 01-11-2018 3:27pm

Yesterday's low max
Malin Head 7.7
Knock. 8.0
Ballyhaise. 8.5

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2018 6:50pm

Okay then, here's some final values from monthly and daily sections, to be confirmed from the MS tomorrow.

IMT finished on 9.6 C.

MAX 21.1, MIN --4.7

PRC 62% of normal

SUN estimated 120%

Low max 31st as reported Malin Head 7.7 C (scores three)

Next three lowest Knock (8.0), Ballyhaise (8.5), Mullingar (8.8) -- these score two

colder than Gurteen (9.8) also include Athenry, Casement, Dublin, Dunsany, Finner, Markree, Mountdillon, Oak Park, Phoenix Park

-- any of those will score one point. Johnstown Castle was equal at 9.8.

______________________________________________________________

I will post some provisional scores soon, as I think they will survive to be edited tomorrow if necessary, or the title can be edited if not.

Adam240610 was right on the money for the IMT.

Closest to the MAX was MTC (0.4 high).

Closest to the MIN was a tie between Kindred Spirit (0.2 high) and Joe Public (0.2 low).

Best we had for PRC was 85%, 23% higher than outcome, from DOCARCH, 200motels and BLIZZARD7.

SUN was (subject to review) forecast correctly by rikand (120%).

Closest to the bonus temperature (7.7) was Rameire at 7.9 C.

The correct location was guessed by 200motels, Pauldry and waterways, although they all figured on a mild pattern where Malin Head would be the logical choice for coldest max.

The closest forecast to what actually happened at the locations chosen was +0.2 at Mullingar (from Adam240610) although Con Sensus came closer (+0.1). Who needs a supercomputer for long-range forecasting when there is the boards forecast contest?

Next closest was at Ballyhaise. MTC was +0.3 and sdanseo was --0.4 compared to the actual of 8.5 ... mickger844posts matched the latter with an error of +0.4 at Mullingar. Tae laidir also matched it at Knock (+0.4). Johnmac joined this group with an error of +0.4 for Mountdillon.

Well done everybody, now it's on to the provisional scoring ...

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2018 7:46pm

Confirmed scoring for October 2018

FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Low max 31st ___ TOTAL

Kindred Spirit ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 19 _ 11 _ 07 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 __ 79

Rikand _________________21 _ 11 _ 14 _ 12 _ 10 _____ 6 _ 1 ______ 75

Adam240610 ____________25 _ 10 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 69

JCX_BXC _______________ 21 _ 16 _ 11 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 1 ______ 68

Jpmarn ________________ 24 _ 03 _ 11 _ 12 _ 09 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 67

Rameire ________________24 _ 09 _ 09 _ 13 _ 04 _____ 7 _ 0 ______ 66

sryanbruen _____________ 23 _ 07 _ 13 _ 11 _ 05 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 66

200motels ______________ 20 _ 17 _ 05 _ 14 _ 04 _____ 1 _ 3 ______ 64

Con Sensus ______________22 _ 10 _ 09 _ 10 _ 06 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 64

Dacogawa ______________ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 08 _ 02 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 __ 63

M.T. Cranium ____________15 _ 18 _ 12 _ 07 _ 04 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 63

pauldry ________________ 21 _ 12 _ 08 _ 12 _ 04 _____ 2 _ 3 ______ 62

Joe Public ______________ 20 _ 01 _ 19 _ 13 _ 05 _____ 3 _ 1 ______ 62

waterways ______________23 _ 08 _ 11 _ 09 _ 07 _____ 0 _ 3 ______ 61

sdanseo ________________19 _ 11 _ 10 _ 02 _ 06 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 ___58

DOCARCH ______________ 13 _ 14 _ 02 _ 14 _ 08 _____ 4 _ 2 ______ 57

sunflower3 ______________22 _ 10 _ 09 _ 06 _ 04 _____ 3 _ 2 ______ 56

___ NormaL ____________ 20 _ 13 _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 3 ______ 56

BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) ____17 _ 01 _ 17 _ 14 _ 07 _____ 1 _ 1 _ 58-3=55

MrSkinner _______________22 _ 10 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 54

mickger844posts _________ 16 _ 07 _ 03 _ 13 _ 08 _____ 4 _ 2 ______ 53

Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 08 _ 05 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 53

Artane2002 _____________ 22 _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 _ 07 _____ 3 _ 2 ______ 50

Bsal ____________________22 _ 02 _ 01 _ 08 _ 05 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 46

john mac ________________23 _ 02 _ 03 _ 07 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 1 ______ 46

dasa29 _________________ 24 _ 00 _ 01 _ 06 _ 06 _____ 2 _ 2 ______ 41

_______________________________________________________________

MAX scores were boosted by 2 points, with any left at zero assessed for rank to receive 0, 1 or 2. MIN scores were boosted by one point with the same procedure for zero scores (0 or 1).

PRC required the minimum progression boost. Scoring differentials were preserved by adding six to all raw scores.

Congrats to kindred spirit and rikand for leading the pack in October ... the scores are probably final unless I find something unexpected in the MS tomorrow. After checking that, I will post the annual update.

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Low max 31st

DOCARCH ______________ 10.8 _ 20.3 _ -2.8 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 9.3 Ballyhaise

M.T. Cranium ____________10.6 _ 21.5 _ -3.8 _ 105 _ 090 _____ 8.8 Ballyhaise

mickger844posts _________10.5 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 110 _____ 9.2 Mullingar

sdanseo ________________10.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.6 _ 110 _ 101 _____ 8.1 Ballyhaise

200motels ______________ 10.1 _ 20.6 _ -3.1 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 12.0 Malin Head

NormaL ________________ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 (loc'n by climatology)

Tae laidir _______________ 10.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.6 _ 103 _ 093 _____ 8.4 Knock

JCX_BXC _______________ 10.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 Gurteen

pauldry ________________ 10.0 _ 20.1 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 092 ____ 11.0 Malin Head

Rikand _________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 7.0 Mt. Dillon

Dacogawa _______________ 9.9 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 102 _ 078 _____ 8.1 Mullingar

MrSkinner _______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -0.9 _ 099 _ 099 _____ 9.0 Knock

sunflower3 ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 10.0 Mullingar

Con Sensus ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 097 _ 099 _____ 8.9 Mullingar**

Kindred Spirit ____________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 093 _ 103 _____ 8.0 Mullingar

Bsal ____________________9.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 101 _ 095 _____ 7.0 Mullingar

waterways _______________9.8 _ 19.7 _ -5.7 _ 098 _ 103 ____ 14.1 Malin Head

john mac ________________9.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 9.5 Mt. Dillon

Rameire _________________9.7 _ 19.8 _ -3.5 _ 089 _ 089 _____ 7.9 Mace Head

Adam240610 _____________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Mullingar

Jpmarn _________________ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.7 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 7.0 Knock

dasa29 __________________9.5 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 11.0 Mullingar

sryanbruen ______________ 9.4 _ 19.6 _ -3.9 _ 095 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Knock

Artane2002 ______________ 9.3 _ 18.7 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 10.2 Knock

Joe Public ________________9.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.9 _ 088 _ 093 _____ 5.8 Dunsany

BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) _____ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -5.0 _ 085 _ 103 _____ 2.3 Mount Dillion

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2018 2:08am

Here's the annual update, the scoring for October was correct so this is now confirmed. Checking the additions while in edit mode.

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Oct)

(8/10)
rank _FORECASTER ______ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT _ TOTAL <--rank _ best 8/10

01 _ Pauldry_____________ 73 _ 58 _ 89 _ 48 _ 76 _ 59 _ 78 _ 62 _ 66 _ 62 __ 671 __ 01 ____ 565
02 _ waterways __________ 81 _ 34 _ 51 _ 73 _ 76 _ 46 _ 83 _ 64 _ 64 _ 61 __ 633 __ 04 ____ 553

(03) Con Sensus _________ 73 _ 67 _ 69 _ 51 _ 71 _ 54 _ 84 _ 56 _ 59 _ 64 __ 648 __(02) ____ 543

03 _ sryanbruen __________56 _ 71 _ 65 _ 60 _ 74 _ 46 _ 85 _ 65 _ 36 _ 66 __ 624 __ 06 ____ 542

(04) NormaL ____________ 75 _ 52 _ 48 _ 71 _ 63 _ 31 _ 59 _ 85 _ 79 _ 56 __ 619 __(07) ____ 540

04 _ Rameire ____________ 52 _ 56 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 44 _ 88 _ 67 _ 67 _ 66 __ 632 __ 05 ____ 539
05 _ Dacogawa ___________71 _ 67 _ 70 _ 67 _ 63 _ 52 _ 71 _ 50 _ 65 _ 63 __ 639 __ 03 ____ 537
06 _ Rikand ______________66 _ 64 _ 62 _ 61 _ 74 _ 65 _ 65 _ 51 _ 59 _ 75 __ 642 __ 02 ____ 532
07 _ JCXBXC _____________34 _ 72 _ 54 _ 43 _ 77 _ 56 _ 78 _ 75 _ 41 _ 68 __ 598 __ 11 ____ 523
08 _ DOCARCH ___________63 _ 62 _ 75 _ 61 _ 68 _ 42 _ 69 _ 47 _ 67 _ 57 __ 611 __ 09 ____ 522
09 _ M.T. Cranium ________ 60 _ 45 _ 52 _ 56 _ 86 _ 49 _ 77 _ 50 _ 75 _ 63 __ 613 __ 08 ____ 519
10 _ Joe Public ___________ 35 _ 62 _ 48 _ 81 _ 61 _ 66 _ 63 _ 56 _ 67 _ 62 __ 601 __ 10 ____ 518
11 _ BLIZZARD7 __________27 _ 73 _ 46 _ 70 _ 92 _ 52 _ 48 _ 46 _ 81 _ 55 __ 590 __ 12 ____ 517
12 _ Jpmarn _____________ 71 _ 61 _ 49 _ 57 _ 68 _ 60 _ 81 _ 51 _ 50 _ 67 __ 615 __ 07 ____ 516
13 _ MrSkinner ___________73 _ 64 _ 72 _ 42 _ 69 _ 36 _ 68 _ 66 _ 41 _ 54 __ 585 __ 13 ____ 508
14 _ Kindred Spirit ________ 59 _ 56 _ 55 _ 28 _ 66 _ 57 _ 77 _ 48 _ 47 _ 79 __ 572 __ 16 ____ 497
15_ Tae laidir ____________ 78 _ 53 _ 63 _ 47 _ 61 _ 52 _ 67 _ 69 _ --- _ 53 __ 543 __ 18 ____ 491
16 _ mickger844posts ______75 _ 77 _ 69 _ 42 _ 54 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 _ 50 _ 53 __ 575 __ 15 ____ 489
17 _ sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 56 _ 63 _ 58 _ 57 _ 41 _ 65 _ 52 _ 64 _ 56 __ 580 __ 14 ____ 487
18 _ sdanseo _____________45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 52 _ 57 _ 64 _ 65 _ --- _ 57 _ 58 __ 516 __ 22 ____ 471
19 _ 200motels ___________36 _ 65 _ 47 _ 49 _ 85 _ 32 _ 62 _ 37 _ 55 _ 64 __ 532 __ 19 ____ 464
20 _ john mac ____________48 _ 58 _ 58 _ 42 _ 63 _ 39 _ 67 _ 72 _ 51 _ 46 __ 544 __ 17 ____ 463
21 _ dasa29 _____________ 69 _ 40 _ 83 _ 43 _ 54 _ 35 _ 57 _ 41 _ 67 _ 41 __ 530 __ 20 ____ 455
22 _ Bsal ________________63 _ 49 _ 71 _ 38 _ 56 _ 34 _ 71 _ 44 _ 50 _ 46 __ 522 __ 21 ____ 450

23 _ Adam240610 ________ --- _ --- _ 56 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ 64 _ 72 _ 51 _ 69 __ 312
24 _ Lumi _______________ 54 _ 54 _ 62 _ --- _ 77 _ 55 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- __ 302
25 _ Artane2002 __________--- _ --- _ ---_ 59 _ 57 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 50 __ 263
________________________________________________________________________________________

No changes in the top two, then we have sryanbruen making a move through the logjam of Con Sensus and NormaL, and small exchanges of positions in the chase pack, Kindred Spirit moved up four ranks with his top score in October.

Ranks for the 8/10 portion are the first number in each row.

Ranks for the all score portion (most have 10/10 there) can be seen after the total scores.

Ranks assigned to Con Sensus and NormaL do not affect your ranks, those are the ranks they would have if they were contest entrants.

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2018 5:13pm

All scoring is now confirmed, the sunshine estimate was close enough at 122%, within margin of error for 120% and everything else looked the same. The October scoring was relatively uniform and nobody failed to use their October score in the best 8/10.

The annual scoring has been added, and I've checked all the additions and subtractions to confirm the numbers there. It has become quite a large chase pack with only 15 points separating 7th and 13th places.

Rikand · 03-11-2018 12:34pm

Sun needs to be scored out of 15 or 20 :P

October 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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