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October 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-09-2018 1:37pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for October. The average for 1981-2010 was 10.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

    4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

    5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS: What will be the low maximum temperature for 31st October, and at what location? Seven points for the temperature, three for location and superbonus available. Location points will be three for exact, two for any of three next lowest, one point for any location colder than Gurteen.

    Here is the entry for NormaL ...

    NormaL _______ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _ 6.0 (loc'n by climatology)


    Deadline: 0300h Monday 1st of October, penalties same as usual.

    Good luck !!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _______ 9.4 _ 19.6 _ -3.9 _ 95 _ 95 _ 9.0 Knock Airport

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry______ 10.0_ 20.1 _ -3 _ 90 _ 92_ 11 Malin Hd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _______ 9.3 _ 18.7 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 105 _ 10.2 Knock Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    sunflower3 _______ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 90 _ 10.0 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _______ 9.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 101 _ 95 _ 7.0 (Mullingar)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610___9.6_19.9_-3.6_90_95_9_mullingar

    On time this time round atleast


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    10.1_ 20.6 _ -3.1 _ 85 _ 90_ 12 Malin Hd


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 _______ 9.5 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 105 _ 100 _ 11.0 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _______ 9.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _103 _ 98 _ 9.5 mt dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    10.0 ____ 20.0 ____ -4.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 7.0 Mt. Dillon


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    10.6 _ 21.5 _ --3.8 _ 105 _ 90 __ 8.8 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 9.9 ___ 19.9 ___ -4.5 ___ 93 ___ 103 ___ 8 Mullingar.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 10.8 _ 20.3 _ -2.8 _ 85 _ 110 _ 9.3 Ballyhaise


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts_______ 10.5 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 87 _ 110 _ 9.2 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _______ 10.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.6 _ 110 _ 101 _ 8.1 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 9.8_ 19.7 _ -5.7 _ 98 _ 103 _ 14.1 (Malin Head)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public________9.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.9 _ 88 _ 93 __ 5.8 Dunsany


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire _______ 9.7 _ 19.8 _ -3.5 _ 89 _ 89 _ 7.9 Mace Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 10.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.6 _ 103 _ 93 _ 8.4 Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa_____9.9 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 102 _ 78 __ 8.1 Mullingar


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.7 _ 90 _ 115 _ 7.0 (Knock Airport)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCX_BXC__10 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 _ 6.0_Gurteen

    (Thanks to Syran for the reminder, got it in 2hrs 24mins before the deadline!)


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Mrskinner______9.9_____19.9_____-0.9_____99_____99_____9(Knock)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for October 2018


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Low max 31st


    DOCARCH ______________ 10.8 _ 20.3 _ -2.8 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 9.3 Ballyhaise

    M.T. Cranium ____________10.6 _ 21.5 _ -3.8 _ 105 _ 090 _____ 8.8 Ballyhaise

    mickger844posts _________10.5 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 110 _____ 9.2 Mullingar

    sdanseo ________________10.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.6 _ 110 _ 101 _____ 8.1 Ballyhaise

    200motels ______________ 10.1 _ 20.6 _ -3.1 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 12.0 Malin Head


    NormaL ________________ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 (loc'n by climatology)


    Tae laidir _______________ 10.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.6 _ 103 _ 093 _____ 8.4 Knock

    JCX_BXC _______________ 10.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 Gurteen

    pauldry ________________ 10.0 _ 20.1 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 092 ____ 11.0 Malin Head

    Rikand _________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 7.0 Mt. Dillon

    Dacogawa _______________ 9.9 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 102 _ 078 _____ 8.1 Mullingar

    MrSkinner _______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -0.9 _ 099 _ 099 _____ 9.0 Knock

    sunflower3 ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 10.0 Mullingar


    Con Sensus ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 097 _ 099 _____ 8.9 Mullingar**


    Kindred Spirit ____________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 093 _ 103 _____ 8.0 Mullingar

    Bsal ____________________9.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 101 _ 095 _____ 7.0 Mullingar

    waterways _______________9.8 _ 19.7 _ -5.7 _ 098 _ 103 ____ 14.1 Malin Head

    john mac ________________9.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 9.5 Mt. Dillon

    Rameire _________________9.7 _ 19.8 _ -3.5 _ 089 _ 089 _____ 7.9 Mace Head

    Adam240610 _____________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Mullingar

    Jpmarn _________________ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.7 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 7.0 Knock

    dasa29 __________________9.5 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 11.0 Mullingar

    sryanbruen ______________ 9.4 _ 19.6 _ -3.9 _ 095 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Knock

    Artane2002 ______________ 9.3 _ 18.7 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 10.2 Knock

    Joe Public ________________9.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.9 _ 088 _ 093 _____ 5.8 Dunsany

    BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) _____ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -5.0 _ 085 _ 103 _____ 2.3 Mount Dillion

    _______________________________________________________________

    ** For location of low max on 31st,
    ... 7 predict Mullingar (Con gets 3 if correct),
    ... 5 predict Knock and 4 say Mountdillon (Con gets 2 if either correct)
    ... 3 predict Malin Head and also Ballyhaise, and 1 predict Dunsany, Gurteen. (Con gets 1 if any of these are right)

    NormaL will score 3 for any location north of Claremorris to Dublin A inclusive, and 2 for any location central, 1 for any location south.

    Con Sensus has been adjusted now that BLIZZARD7 has entered. The median value of the 24 forecasts is the mean of 12th and 13th ranked.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _______ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -5.0 _ 85 _ 103 _ 2.3c Mount Dillion

    Sorry for late entry!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    No problem, table is now complete.


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Phoenix Park 17.6 max yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Think there was an 18.3c in Roches Pt one of the days

    Anyways MT says it will likely be warmer next week so these shouldnt last


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Report on first week ...

    IMT was 10.6 which is 0.8 below average.

    MAX so far is 18.3 (JC, 2nd), MIN --0.3 (Mullingar, 7th)

    PRC just 50% of normal, Casement the only station above average.

    SUN 67.5% of normal (405/600).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Just for the record, Gurteen briefly took over the MAX yesterday (18.5) but as of 1400h several locations at 20 C. Our two warmest predictions are 21.5 (from me) and 20.6 from 200motels.

    1500h reports include two at 21 C (Finner and Athenry).


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