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What Is A Great Strategy For Horse Race Betting?

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  • 01-07-2020 3:15pm
    #1
    RichardClain
    Registered Users Posts: 1 ✭


    Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?
    Tagged:


«1

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    #2
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Only bet what you can afford is number 1.


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    #3
    bladespin
    Registered Users Posts: 7,333 ✭✭✭bladespin


    posturingpat wrote: »
    Only bet what you can afford is number 1.

    Pick winners???

    Nah, seriously, research, listen to those who know etc etc, it also helps to be 'around' it, know those in the game, not really for winner tips but they're pretty good at spotting the tankers - despite odds movement etc.

    I do remember being advised the 'place' money is where it's at but never really tested that theory.


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    #4
    jordata
    Registered Users Posts: 1,206 ✭✭✭jordata


    posturingpat wrote: »
    Only bet what you can afford is number 1.

    and number 2 remember the bookie always wins.


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    #5
    supremenovice
    Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭supremenovice


    Stick to Group/Graded races where the horses race on level terms and are always trying their hardest. The form is more reliable among the best horses.
    And watch the racing to draw your own conclusions.


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    #6
    Cherry_Cola
    Registered Users Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    For me, put in only what you can afford to lose. Don't get upset if you lose and try to chase those losses. Consider it an investment in entertainment, I've had 50/1 shots beaten a hair and while it's sickening and I perhaps wouldn't make as much as I would have if they won, I got a good run for my money and I was invested in the entirety of the race. It's an exciting feeling.

    Additionally for me, I only bet ew over odds of 12/1 for the most part, better off putting 20 win on anything lower than that in my view than a tenner ew.

    If you're starting out, there are some great folks to follow on here and some other sites too, you'll know who the good ones are quickly enough.


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    #7
    tryfix
    Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Whether they realise it or not most punters are better at picking in certain types of races than in others. Ye might have a knack of doing okay backing in big sprint handicaps and be a disaster at picking a winner in long distance races. Find the way that works best for you return-wise, otherwise you are going to keep throwing money at the bookies and chasing your losses.


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    #8
    Cherry_Cola
    Registered Users Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    Also adding - open multiple accounts - Paddy/Bet365 and Skybet - this is because the prices/places vary wildly between them all. Paddy has gotten terrible for prices these days. Ladbrokes are scum so I avoid those.

    Also if you're young and looking to go for a mortgage - stick to cash only where possible or use means that your bank can't trace back to you.


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    #9
    The Tetrarch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Bet with the organisation that charges you the least to have a bet.
    Bookmaker margins are from 15% upwards and can be as high at 35%/40%.
    The betting exchange I use charges me 5%.

    You think they do not charge you?
    If they offer 5/1 and you can get 6/1 elsewhere then the first of those is charging you more.

    The price (or odds) is perhaps the most important factor in deciding to bet or not to bet.
    If a horse has a 10% chance to win you should not bet if the odds offered are 5/1. If the odds offered are 25/1 then it is a bet. You will lose 90% of the time on a 10% chance, but when you win you get well paid, enough to pay for all the losing bets you will have. Everyone back losers.


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    #10
    The Hoarse Whisperer
    Registered Users Posts: 41 ✭The Hoarse Whisperer


    I think betting on horses is like most things in life, the harder you work the luckier you get.

    But making a profit and beating the bookies over time is difficult. Getting value in your bets is key. Its all about the price and never just about the one bet imo.

    As for strategies, one that I employ could be described as a dual staking policy i suppose.

    I think one needs to be betting regularly, myself anyway, to keep knowledge levels and instincts high and basically just be exercising the faculties of the mind used in betting on horses. When I am betting regularly the better opportunities seem to present themselves more often. However the problem is the profits made on those better opportunities are offset by all the other bets I make.


    So the strategy is simple really. Most of the bets I make are for mickey mouse stakes ie one or two euro so that any losses I make on the vast bulk of my bets are kept to a minimum and then I aim to recoup those losses and more on the so called better betting opportunites where I Increase the stakes. Obviously this takes a bit of discipline to wait until I feel a better betting opportunity arrives and then again to reduce the stakes after.

    But I know for me even just betting tiny amounts motivates me to invest time and effort into the bet and its this work that I believe pays off even if not immediately.


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    #11
    famagusta
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭famagusta


    The Tetrarch wrote:
    Bet with the organisation that charges you the least to have a bet. Bookmaker margins are from 15% upwards and can be as high at 35%/40%. The betting exchange I use charges me 5%.


    Why don't you pay the 2%? Go into your account and change the rewards plan


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    #12
    The Tetrarch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    famagusta wrote: »
    Why don't you pay the 2%? Go into your account and change the rewards plan
    I looked up my account just now. It says 2%. :)


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    #13
    robbiezero
    Registered Users Posts: 4,320 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    Cherry_Cola wrote: »
    For me, put in only what you can afford to lose. Don't get upset if you lose and try to chase those losses. Consider it an investment in entertainment, I've had 50/1 shots beaten a hair and while it's sickening and I perhaps wouldn't make as much as I would have if they won, I got a good run for my money and I was invested in the entirety of the race. It's an exciting feeling.

    Additionally for me, I only bet ew over odds of 12/1 for the most part, better off putting 20 win on anything lower than that in my view than a tenner ew.

    If you're starting out, there are some great folks to follow on here and some other sites too, you'll know who the good ones are quickly enough.

    Always have a few quid put up to lay on betfair at odds-on in running on bets at large odds - 1.2, 1.5 or even 2.0 depending on stake/odds etc.
    Nothing worse than having a 10/1 shot etc, just touched off that trades at e.g. 1.1 etc in running and ye you still up losing money (assuming a win bet).


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    #14
    Turbohymac
    Registered Users Posts: 472 ✭✭Turbohymac


    Hi op..a friend of mine has a saying how to become a millionaire from betting.....start with 2 ..
    It's a fools game with large betting companies luring many people into major debt.. I've yet to find anyone that has beaten the bookies constantly and are actually making a living from it..
    If there was good money to be made then why would anyone bother with a day job


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    #15
    famagusta
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭famagusta


    The Tetrarch wrote:
    I looked up my account just now. It says 2%.


    Good man, anyone using the exchange should check that they are on the 2% plan, the others are a joke


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    #16
    Truthvader
    Registered Users Posts: 1,826 ✭✭✭Truthvader


    Turbohymac wrote: »
    Hi op..a friend of mine has a saying how to become a millionaire from betting.....start with 2 ..
    It's a fools game with large betting companies luring many people into major debt.. I've yet to find anyone that has beaten the bookies constantly and are actually making a living from it..
    If there was good money to be made then why would anyone bother with a day job

    Its actually worse than that. Knew a guy 30 years ago that busted a bookie. They just refused to pay. All you can do is object to their licence. In that case the owner pretended they didn't know a out the bets. Its a lose lose lose game. Even if you deal with an honest bookie they just rrfuse to accept your bets if you are winning


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    #17
    BoldReason
    Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason


    I won't give you a strategy as tbh it is different depending on who you ask 1 punter said earlier that only bet in group races and tbh I see the angle but to me I feel I have absolutely 0 edge there and about 90% of my bets are in handicaps as there is a bit more imagination involved for me and I can usually read the big field flat handicaps fairly well.

    As tryfix said find out the races that you can get the best read on and concentrate on those.

    The usual use as many accounts you can get your hands on for as long as possible.

    Be open minded on each way bets. Examine both parts of the bet independently don't bet each way for the sake of it because the odds are good. I've often backed 5/2 shots each way albeit that would probably be a cut off and often backed 100/1 shots win only.
    But you can often find great value in an each way bet at less than 5/1.
    As in you could have a 4/7 fav 5/2 second fav and 12/1 the rest in an 8 runner race. The second fav could be a solid bet at 5/2 and he could be a 1/10 shot to finish in the places. You are effectively getting 1/2 for the place and also having a decent bet at 5/2 the win.

    I will give you a few donts.
    1. Do not use a bookmakers cash out feature under any circumstances. I would say if the sum of money involved is significantly life changing then perhaps consider but other than that. A bets a bet and let it ride.
    2. Do not bet each way on races if the place part of the bet is a very bad bet. ie 7 runner races as well as a few other situations.
    3. Do not bet each way on races if the win part of bet is a very bad bet. ie you should always see a situation where the horse has a chance of winning the race.
    4. Don't back tips from people you have no notion of where the tip came from. If you know someone we'll and you know for sure they have good info maybe go for it. If you meet Jimmy down the pub who says his mate works in Joseph O Briens but you don't know who or what he is talking about then tbh just ignore it. You will be the better for it long term even if the odd one wins.
    5. Don't ever evaluate things in the short term. If you trust what your method is then stick with it for a good sample.
    6. Do not get hung up on bets that you believe should have won that for one reason or another didn't. Note it and just move on.
    7. Don't be afraid to have a multiple if you believe there is value in all legs. Within reason.
    8. Do not pay for tips online or through any other channels.


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    #18
    leko99
    Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭leko99


    BoldReason wrote: »
    I won't give you a strategy as tbh it is different depending on who you ask 1 punter said earlier that only bet in group races and tbh I see the angle but to me I feel I have absolutely 0 edge there and about 90% of my bets are in handicaps as there is a bit more imagination involved for me and I can usually read the big field flat handicaps fairly well.

    As tryfix said find out the races that you can get the best read on and concentrate on those.

    The usual use as many accounts you can get your hands on for as long as possible.

    Be open minded on each way bets. Examine both parts of the bet independently don't bet each way for the sake of it because the odds are good. I've often backed 5/2 shots each way albeit that would probably be a cut off and often backed 100/1 shots win only.
    But you can often find great value in an each way bet at less than 5/1.
    As in you could have a 4/7 fav 5/2 second fav and 12/1 the rest in an 8 runner race. The second fav could be a solid bet at 5/2 and he could be a 1/10 shot to finish in the places. You are effectively getting 1/2 for the place and also having a decent bet at 5/2 the win.

    I will give you a few donts.
    1. Do not use a bookmakers cash out feature under any circumstances. I would say if the sum of money involved is significantly life changing then perhaps consider but other than that. A bets a bet and let it ride.
    2. Do not bet each way on races if the place part of the bet is a very bad bet. ie 7 runner races as well as a few other situations.
    3. Do not bet each way on races if the win part of bet is a very bad bet. ie you should always see a situation where the horse has a chance of winning the race.
    4. Don't back tips from people you have no notion of where the tip came from. If you know someone we'll and you know for sure they have good info maybe go for it. If you meet Jimmy down the pub who says his mate works in Joseph O Briens but you don't know who or what he is talking about then tbh just ignore it. You will be the better for it long term even if the odd one wins.
    5. Don't ever evaluate things in the short term. If you trust what your method is then stick with it for a good sample.
    6. Do not get hung up on bets that you believe should have won that for one reason or another didn't. Note it and just move on.
    7. Don't be afraid to have a multiple if you believe there is value in all legs. Within reason.
    8. Do not pay for tips online or through any other channels.
    If a 5/2 shot eachway places do you still not lose money on your stake?


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    #19
    BoldReason
    Closed Accounts Posts: 704 ✭✭✭BoldReason


    leko99 wrote: »
    If a 5/2 shot eachway places do you still not lose money on your stake?

    If you consider that it's one bet then yes but I think that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. I'd consider it 2 bets myself. If both bets are value then it is a winner long term.

    I wouldn't do it often but I wouldn't ignore the possibility of capping each way bets at certain odds.


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    #20
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,103 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Current form and the going are what you need to go on. Anything after that is just dressing on top. One of the main problems with some punters is over analysing the race.


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    #21
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    RichardClain wrote: »
    Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?

    Yep.
    See what Sting is on, and lay
    Watch the money rolll in


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    #22
    jonhpatricken
    Registered Users Posts: 1 ✭jonhpatricken


    I lost a lot in the first quarter that I started, but now I'm making a profit. But, like everyone else, I have good and bad days. I'm not an expert, but my system works for me, I'm just sharing what I know and I hope it helps someone.

    Betting on horse racing is like a puzzle. Obviously, the pieces of the puzzle are in the shape of horses, jockey, trainer, owner, race conditions, soil etc.

    There are several strategies out there, however, choosing the right horses requires your own knowledge. Like any other skill, you need to practice and study horse racing. With experience, you will certainly develop a strategy that works best for yourself.

    When I started doing what I do in horse racing, it was very impressive not to know anything. As you can see, there are MANY things you can observe when choosing the right horse. You need to develop your own strategy and weigh which factors are most important to you. Meet the horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and routes and some help with horse racing tips (horseracingtips.today) that are very useful. You don't have to compete with everyone; there are professionals who have been betting for years, but don't be discouraged, we all have to start from somewhere. Above all, you must love what you do. Watching horse racing really amuses me personally, even in lost times, but, of course, the goal is to make money while enjoying what we do.


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    #23
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Turbohymac wrote: »
    Hi op..a friend of mine has a saying how to become a millionaire from betting.....start with 2 ..
    It's a fools game with large betting companies luring many people into major debt.. I've yet to find anyone that has beaten the bookies constantly and are actually making a living from it..
    If there was good money to be made then why would anyone bother with a day job

    Of course there are people making money. A minority, but they exist

    Advice I'd give would be don't chase your losses

    Do your own tissue prices

    Don't chase your losses

    Open an account with every book you can

    Don't chase your losses

    Dont back odds on in a handicap


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    #24
    Plasandrunt
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭Plasandrunt


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    Current form and the going are what you need to go on. Anything after that is just dressing on top. One of the main problems with some punters is over analysing the race.

    I think the average punter doesn't analyse the form enough, backing a horse solely because you like the jockey on board or backing a horse blind in a grade 1 because he'd won for you in a grade 5 last time out is madness.

    I won't put any money down if I can't access the form guide, more and more betting shops aren't putting the RP form pages up on the boards too, very frustrating.


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    #25
    abarkie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭abarkie


    robbiezero wrote: »
    Always have a few quid put up to lay on betfair at odds-on in running on bets at large odds - 1.2, 1.5 or even 2.0 depending on stake/odds etc.
    Nothing worse than having a 10/1 shot etc, just touched off that trades at e.g. 1.1 etc in running and ye you still up losing money (assuming a win bet).

    This is something I do

    Back something at say 10/1 but leave a lay bet at 1.5 and if it gets touched off then i have got my stake back, so no loss

    A friend i go racing with just can't understand why i do this, but for me it is all about not losing


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    #26
    Mysterypunter
    Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭Mysterypunter


    RichardClain wrote: »
    Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?

    Pass the betting shop, but seriously the number one for me is pick one and have your bollix on it, **** all them doubles and trebles and miracle accums, just load up on one, no betting tax in the shops so just one at a time, also, keep it to yourself, too many clowns boasting about betting, ignore them all, its an individual pursuit. And if you lose, suck it up


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    #27
    robbiezero
    Registered Users Posts: 4,320 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    abarkie wrote: »
    This is something I do

    Back something at say 10/1 but leave a lay bet at 1.5 and if it gets touched off then i have got my stake back, so no loss

    A friend i go racing with just can't understand why i do this, but for me it is all about not losing

    Can't understand why people don't do this.

    e.g. the likes of Stanhope winning in Navan Friday. 7/1 SP, 16/1 betfair SP. Thats 9 points to spare over the bookies. Surely its worthwhile putting up your stake (At the very least) at low odds.

    As an aside, you probably are at nothing as a punter if you are backing the likes of the above for a win in the bookies rather than the exchanges.


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    #28
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    I have started backing 3rd favourites blind in maidens ( flat and jumps ), backing on the nose can bring remarkable results, I am in profit since I started.

    In Beginner Chases try to avoid odds on shots, even if they appear stones ahead on hurdle ratings. There is an intangible difference between hurdle and chase ratings. Despite that, following hurdlers blind over fences at shight odds gets pricey long term. If you cannot see it beaten and its price is 4/7 just watch the race. If the horse jumps well have a look at its' targets and try to get on at a more juicier price down the line. It only takes one clip of a heal to cause a fall and your odds on lump is goosed. Stick to Group 1's on the flat for odds on punting, more reliable.


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    #29
    laguacamaya
    Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭laguacamaya


    I don't really bet on horses anymore, apart from Cheltenham/Punchestown and possibly one of the bigger meetings on the flat. The bookies have a massive edge (15% and beyond-I've seen a greyhound race where all 6 dogs were priced at 7/2...).
    How do you negate that edge?? No matter how astute you are and how much"insider information" you're privy to, it's simply incredibly difficult.
    If you're serious about horse betting you should absolutely be using Betfair.
    You should also be betting more liberally on Money Back offers (2nd, 3rd, 4th to the favourite- or if you're beaten by the favourite etc.)
    That would be a good start...


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    #30
    madmoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    If a low stake punter you need to take up those money back if second offers from william hill on certain meetings etc

    I started doing the place insurance market for 10/1 shots instead of doing ew as the prices for double figures tend to be close to their price anyway so its a full win bet but cash back if places which has worked well at some of the bigger meetings recently.


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    #31
    grogi
    Registered Users Posts: 8,615 ✭✭✭grogi


    RichardClain wrote: »
    Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?

    Don't ever assume you will make any money on betting. Just don't.

    Treat it as watching sports with extra energy, additional kick of adrenaline.


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