What Is A Great Strategy For Horse Race Betting?

realdanbreen

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have started backing 3rd favourites blind in maidens ( flat and jumps ), backing on the nose can bring remarkable results, I am in profit since I started. .

Wow! You reckon that's the way to go then.:D

Morgans

Hard to have any rules but

1. You can beat the bookies.

What the bookies have in their favour is that they are playing the long game. Humans can be victims to emotions, whether its chasing losses, betting just out of boredom, betting as an escape from daily life, out and out addiction. The fact that a €100 win a few years back doesn't excite you now. The more you have minimise those impulses the better chances you have.

2. The adage that the only way to win a small fortune on horses is to start with a large one

I started out thinking that what was meant by this is that you will lose a small fortune in the end. However, I think that it could be read (and maybe more accurately) that its easier to make money betting on short odds than long odds. You are more likely to win (random number example, 5K) by having 20K on a 1/4 shot than continually having 200 quid on 25/1 shots. Obviously 1/4 shots lose and you need to have the bank to cope with that. But if that's factored in. Its a route that most punters sneer at as its often about trying to be clever, finding that 10s shot that's overpriced when there is a sense in how to beat the bookies to 'just back winners'. If the horse wins, you don't lose. If you go to a financial advisor they would boast of returns of 10% on investment with no guarantee of course. 1/10 horses go mostly unbacked as you dont get enough return on investment by punters.

3. Don't sneer at multiples

For the everyday punter, it always makes sense to me to have your bet on the single and then, if it wins, make the decision on whether you want to put it all on the second horse you were tempted to put in a double. You can make a decision lets say if the shape of the race changes, horses drift etc. However, there are plenty of pro punters who do use them to seriously break the bookies - many will tell you that its the only way to win big. See the case of bet365 refusing to pay out the 'girl' in the north, who may or may not have been placing huge multiples for a known professional punter.

There are many ways to beat the bookies. Not many do. Anyway, Find out what you are trying to do, stick with it, and hone it. Specialising is good. Try not to get too excited by good days or depressed on bad days. The less emotion the better. Do what you can not to let it affect the other important things in life.

realdanbreen

Morgans wrote: »

.

3. Don't sneer at multiples.

Hear Hear.

If you want to make a few bob and at the same time get some enjoyment then the best way for the small punter, and I would be one, is to put a modest(affordable obviously ) sum on a multiple, say a double or patent.

There aren't too many around like Barney Curley or JP who can throw five figure sums onto short priced favourites.
Gambling is an enjoyable pastime for many but is almost a dirty word if you were to pay attention to the likes of Declan Lynch or Ray Darcy who cite the case of that postman who fiddled all round him to demonise the ordinary punter.

Morgans

realdanbreen wrote: »

Hear Hear.

If you want to make a few bob and at the same time get some enjoyment then the best way for the small punter, and I would be one, is to put a modest(affordable obviously ) sum on a multiple, say a double or patent.

There aren't too many around like Barney Curley or JP who can throw five figure sums onto short priced favourites.
Gambling is an enjoyable pastime for many but is almost a dirty word if you were to pay attention to the likes of Declan Lynch or Ray Darcy who cite the case of that postman who fiddled all round him to demonise the ordinary punter.

I think for Declan Lynch its the lack of responsibility on the part of the bookies/gambling industry who are happy to take advantage of those who cant afford to bet but are compelled to do so - to the point of encouraging it.

Bookies will happily encourage bets from vulnerable but a short winning run of ew doubles is one of the quickest ways for bookies to stop taking bets off you.

Don't listen to d'Arcy - the best advice on this thread.

Hulk Hands

Firstly, you can win at gambling. It's not rocket science whatsoever and as much as 3% of punters would be classed as long term winners, with many more than 3% total of accounts restricted (winners tend to open more accounts than losers).

For starters though forget about the horses or sport itself. People pay by far the most attention to learning the sport in question when it's by far the least important component. I know lads who couldn't tell you the rules of Golf or Tennis but would be long term gambling winners at both, simply because they understand the industry. There's been plenty of geeks from stats or computer science courses in college who know zero about sport but are instantly winning punters as they understand the basic probability behind it. Whereas the majority of even winning punters who are more sport minded spend a few years faffing about looking at sports before learning the fundamentals.

Google overrounds and how to calculate them and how they're applied. Learn about arbitrage, expected margin and bonus abuse. Learn about the exchanges and how it's generally used as a guide to the 100% price (true price). Important to know why some accounts get restricted and which bets bookmakers don't want you placing. BoldReason gave some good guides on "Bad Each Way", which is the ultimate low hanging fruit for a racing punter. In general, gambling is about backing the right price, not the right selection.

Until someone can price a race accurately and pick off the prices that are wrong, they're essentially bluffing. There are ways to cheat however. Open an account with all bookies anyway and start taking best price from Oddschecker as a rule for starters. Mixing in some small arbitrage and bad each way is a good way of learning the system, although don't go overboard as you want to keep accounts for future. Singles are a useful way to start, but down the line multiples are the ultimate dangerous tool (if the margin is in your favour in 3 or 4 separate bets, this +EV multiplies out in a multiple). After a while try to start pricing things yourself before you look at the odds provided.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have started backing 3rd favourites blind in maidens ( flat and jumps ), backing on the nose can bring remarkable results, I am in profit since I started.

realdanbreen wrote: »

Wow! You reckon that's the way to go then.:D

6 maidens today. Current 3rd favs -

7th Aug SANDOWN 12:35 MAIDEN STAKES 0m 5f 10y - Each Way
6. Pure Dreamer
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SLIGO 13:00 6F STAKES 5f 160yds - Each Way
2. Zoom Call
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SANDOWN 14:20 MAIDEN STAKES 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
4. Pied Piper
6/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:10 5F STAKES 5f - Each Way
2. Mateo Cruz
7/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:40 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
2. Eternal Flame
11/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 17:10 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
9. Zephron
5/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places


I have a 20c ew 6 fold, 5 fold and 20c win 4fold. The rest are singles. Bet costs € 7.40, potential return of 10 grand. If they all place I will get back just over a 100 euro. 5 winners potential over a grand more and 4 wins you might be good for 100 -150 , it depends what come in

Gets frustrating when 3 win but actually a false economy, the trebles cost you an extra 4 and you are just scraping your money back. There is an argument around them, but if you draw a blank it clicks up if you are backing everyday. For example a treble at 7/2 returns a profit of 8 quid. Today I will have a fiver on each as well. If the first 3 do not come in I might up to a tenner, see how it goes.

Wish me luck Daniel.

Hulk Hands

My god there's some rubbish in this thread

Morgans

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Firstly, you can win at gambling. It's not rocket science whatsoever and as much as 3% of punters would be classed as long term winners, with many more than 3% total of accounts restricted (winners tend to open more accounts than losers).

For starters though forget about the horses or sport itself. People pay by far the most attention to learning the sport in question when it's by far the least important component. I know lads who couldn't tell you the rules of Golf or Tennis but would be long term gambling winners at both, simply because they understand the industry. There's been plenty of geeks from stats or computer science courses in college who know zero about sport but are instantly winning punters as they understand the basic probability behind it. Whereas the majority of even winning punters who are more sport minded spend a few years faffing about looking at sports before learning the fundamentals.

Google overrounds and how to calculate them and how they're applied. Learn about arbitrage, expected margin and bonus abuse. Learn about the exchanges and how it's generally used as a guide to the 100% price (true price). Important to know why some accounts get restricted and which bets bookmakers don't want you placing. BoldReason gave some good guides on "Bad Each Way", which is the ultimate low hanging fruit for a racing punter. In general, gambling is about backing the right price, not the right selection.

Until someone can price a race accurately and pick off the prices that are wrong, they're essentially bluffing. There are ways to cheat however. Open an account with all bookies anyway and start taking best price from Oddschecker as a rule for starters. Mixing in some small arbitrage and bad each way is a good way of learning the system, although don't go overboard as you want to keep accounts for future. Singles are a useful way to start, but down the line multiples are the ultimate dangerous tool (if the margin is in your favour in 3 or 4 separate bets, this +EV multiplies out in a multiple). After a while try to start pricing things yourself before you look at the odds provided.

This is far easier said that done. The mathematical approach is well established and in essence its what most punters are doing knowingly or unknowingly. Its far easier when it is applied to card counting etc. In effect taking the horse racing knowledge out of it and looking for mathematical inaccuracies. Backing a horse in a 2 horse race that is 11/10 with one bookie and the second horse being 11/10 with another etc.

Creating your own prices accurately needs to have an understanding of the sport, especially when bookies have vastly more resources to ensure their accuracy. So the advice to specialise is important as even if its unknowingly done, you are effectively, if not explicitly, pricing a race and looking for edges.

Its one of the reasons why low key obscure events are where 'fraudsters' are most likely to target. The edge is more obvious and there are greater opportunities for ricks.

realdanbreen

IAMAMORON wrote: »

6 maidens today. Current 3rd favs -

7th Aug SANDOWN 12:35 MAIDEN STAKES 0m 5f 10y - Each Way
6. Pure Dreamer
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SLIGO 13:00 6F STAKES 5f 160yds - Each Way
2. Zoom Call
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SANDOWN 14:20 MAIDEN STAKES 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
4. Pied Piper
6/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:10 5F STAKES 5f - Each Way
2. Mateo Cruz
7/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:40 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
2. Eternal Flame
11/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 17:10 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
9. Zephron
5/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places


I have a 20c ew 6 fold, 5 fold and 20c win 4fold. The rest are singles. Bet costs € 7.40, potential return of 10 grand. If they all place I will get back just over a 100 euro. 5 winners potential over a grand more and 4 wins you might be good for 100 -150 , it depends what come in

Gets frustrating when 3 win but actually a false economy, the trebles cost you an extra 4 and you are just scraping your money back. There is an argument around them, but if you draw a blank it clicks up if you are backing everyday. For example a treble at 7/2 returns a profit of 8 quid. Today I will have a fiver on each as well. If the first 3 do not come in I might up to a tenner, see how it goes.

Wish me luck Daniel.

See you've just tempted me now to have a little squeeze on some of these!

Anyway bet of luck, not that you'll need it, after all they are 3rd favourites so what can go wrong.:cool:

Hulk Hands

Of course it's important to learn the sport Morgans. My point is that it's a lot less important than learning the basic probability first.

A typical punter in Ireland starts going into bookies at 18-23 and wasting fivers on randomly selected horses or football accums. The majority stay in that bubble. If they're good, they'll start learning form or start studying teamsheets and make educated selections, while still losing money as they're betting into 120% markets or they're taking 6/1 in Boyles when 8s and an extra place are available on hills. A lot stay in this bubble. The winners will eventually learn the maths and the industry and will start placing +EV bets but only after a period spent wasted.

Contrast this with the maths geeks coming out of college. They understand arbitrage straight off the bat. They'll calculate the overrounds of every market they bet into and will stay away from high margin ones. They'll reference Betfair for prices. These people will break even or win straight off the bat. They can then start applying the heavy sports study to start pricing everything themselves and really make hay.

You cant get to point B (winning) without doing point A first (learning the fundamentals). That's simply my point. Spend a month learning overrounds and arbs first

Morgans wrote: »

I started out thinking that what was meant by this is that you will lose a small fortune in the end. However, I think that it could be read (and maybe more accurately) that its easier to make money betting on short odds than long odds. You are more likely to win (random number example, 5K) by having 20K on a 1/4 shot than continually having 200 quid on 25/1 shots. Obviously 1/4 shots lose and you need to have the bank to cope with that. But if that's factored in. Its a route that most punters sneer at as its often about trying to be clever, finding that 10s shot that's overpriced when there is a sense in how to beat the bookies to 'just back winners'. If the horse wins, you don't lose. If you go to a financial advisor they would boast of returns of 10% on investment with no guarantee of course. 1/10 horses go mostly unbacked as you dont get enough return on investment by punters.

This is plain wrong btw. I think you even know yourself that its wrong. Are you maintaining that it's better to back winners than the overpriced ones? That's arguing against basic maths.

You are not more likely to win 5k by backing 1/4 continuously than 25/1. There's been plenty of smart arses who've had 'systems' where they assumed all long odds on shots were overpriced and they got their arse handed to them long term. The Betfair market is made by a handful or large traders in the 10 mins before a race. None of these are afraid of backing long odds on so this idea that a 1/10 shot that should be 1/33 goes unbacked is nonsense.

Morgans

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I think you even know yourself that its wrong. Are you maintaining that it's better to back winners than the overpriced ones? That's arguing against basic maths.

I am saying that 100%. It is better to back winners than overpriced losers. Horses that outrun their position in the market but return nothing. I don't go out of my way to find the shortest price each day and back accordingly. But backing good favourites isnt a bad strategy.

What I am NOT saying is that all 1/4 shots are worth backing. That's where the knowledge of horse racing comes in. In fact, what I am really saying i suppose, is that backing a 1/4 shot that is in effect 1/8 shot is more likely to bring success that backing a 25/1 shot that should be 16s.

But if you believe that all form is available, you know the potential of each horse, and their likliehood to run to that potential, picking the winner is a very viable strategy. There is a fetish over finding the value - the overpriced horse. When you are punting on the 25/1 shot, generally there are a good deal of elements that need to go in their favour for you to collect. In fact, your analysis might have been correct and and outruns its odds. However, you lose but and while it shows your analysis is good, you need to pick winning bets to beat the bookies.

Its not the 25/1 each way bets that the bookies dont like, its the each way bets at 3/1. For good reason.

Morgans

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Of course it's important to learn the sport Morgans. My point is that it's a lot less important than learning the basic probability first.

A typical punter in Ireland starts going into bookies at 18-23 and wasting fivers on randomly selected horses or football accums. The majority stay in that bubble. If they're good, they'll start learning form or start studying teamsheets and make educated selections, while still losing money as they're betting into 120% markets or they're taking 6/1 in Boyles when 8s and an extra place are available on hills. A lot stay in this bubble. The winners will eventually learn the maths and the industry and will start placing +EV bets but only after a period spent wasted.

I dont think they are looking to beat the bookies any more than any casual punter is doing so at a day at the races. I could point out to a friend at the races that you dont have to take 8/1 with the bookies on the rails, that its its 9.8 on betfair, but its not really the point.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Betfair market is made by a handful or large traders in the 10 mins before a race. None of these are afraid of backing long odds on so this idea that a 1/10 shot that should be 1/33 goes unbacked is nonsense.

Yes, even after it appeared shocking at first, horses are still getting beat in running at 1/999. However, those punting at those odds must feel that its a system that works, despite the occasional loss.

ComplyOrDie

As someone who has beaten most bookies I can say some of the biggest factors that helped me are as follows:

- Think outside the box (find an angle or area to be an expert in, e.g. mdn hurdles, claimers)
- stay away from high profile racing ( watch but don't bet, too many eyes are on these and as such the value is rarely available)
- Don't follow the market unless you're trading positions, If you follow others then their money and your money is increasing bookies liability hence prices contract..... People think a gamble is underway when these moves are not normally connections
- Pay attention to smaller yards, they usually run in cycles (horse got form in certain months etc) or target certain race's/tracks. An example would be Steven mahon in ballinrobe ( has had multiple horse place at 100/1 overt the last 5 years
- only back value (horses whos price is bigger than the chance you think it has of winning) ask yourself this if the race was run 10 times, how many times would it win
- if you are getting very good value, double them up. People tend to look negative towards multis, however they are fantastic as your multiplying the edge. Some of my best payouts have been doubles
- try to avoid betting the night before, bookie limits are low, they are waiting for informed custom to help them shape the market and you'll be restricted quicker if your taking advantage
- enjoy it while it lasts, as the road is short when your winning
- the best angle I could give someone is to exploit ew extra markets, it not that difficult to identify outsiders who will finish in the first half of the field. One of the uk bookies (green) have fantastic markets that are ripe for the picking

I could go on but some decent advice I'd love to give my younger self above

The downside is after a while you can't get money on, just two of my accounts below and as you can see I'm now heavily restricted

IAMAMORON

Alot of know alling going on. You can't beat a bit of sheer gumption however. Gumption and instinct counts for twice the price.

Like gumption tells you that Gavin Ryan is a savage wee pilot and is pouring on the winners. He could be the next Ben Curtis for all we know.

Great to see the Curragh survived the curfew.

Hopefully we might get going to Listowel yet. "Throw some downthere."

ComplyOrDie

Morgans wrote: »

Its not the 25/1 each way bets that the bookies dont like, its the each way bets at 3/1. For good reason.

Interesting point, which brings me to what bookies don't like, common reasons for someone being restricted:

- Beating the SP if you frequently bet on selections whos sp is lower than the price you took (this suggests you have decent knowledge of industry/markets and will be harder to beat as you are consistently getting value)

- Jumping on Market moves if you are first on you are giving them info e.g. owners or stable staff would tend to be some of the first to back a horse, this is essentially telling the bookie this horse is going well and they may take that as a prompt to cut it's price, if you are jumping onto these market moves without being in the know then you would be thorn in the bookies side, you're not really adding value to them you're just increasing their liability on that selection.

- Exploiting mistakes / wrong prices looking for mistakes is one way to come to attention very quickly, stay away from blatantly obvious mistakes, your bet will be resettled and you'll become a monitored customer

- Confidence staking if you're betting an odd fiver and then lump on selections when you have very high confidence (say maybe 100 quid) then you'll be very hard to beat if you're anyway knowledgeable as it'll take alot of losing fivers to get back losses

IAMAMORON

3rd Favs in maidens for today. My gumption is rising.

8th Aug ASCOT 12:40 MAIDEN STAKES 0m 7f 0y - Win
9. Motataabeq
5/1
8th Aug NEWMARKET 13:40 MAIDEN FILLIES STAKES 0m 7f 0y - Win
1. Arion Fox
9/2
8th Aug CORK 14:00 1M STAKES 1m - Win
2. April Showers
16/5
8th Aug CORK 14:30 5F STAKES 5f - Win
2. Hyde Park Barracks
15/4
8th Aug KILBEGGAN 16:40 2M HURDLE 2m - Win
7. Grange Walk
5/1
8th Aug KILBEGGAN 17:45 2M 4F HURDLE 2m 3f 180yds - Win
9. Thousand Tears
11/4

20c ew 6fold, 20c ew 5fold 20 c win 4 fold. € 5.60. fiver singles on the first 3. If no winner double to a tenner for the last three. All you big shot spenders can add a zero if you like, you know you who are you beautiful salooon driving fat cat big shots. Have a good one.

Morgans

ComplyOrDie wrote: »

Interesting point, which brings me to what bookies don't like, common reasons for someone being restricted:

- Beating the SP if you frequently bet on selections whos sp is lower than the price you took (this suggests you have decent knowledge of industry/markets and will be harder to beat as you are consistently getting value)

- Jumping on Market moves if you are first on you are giving them info e.g. owners or stable staff would tend to be some of the first to back a horse, this is essentially telling the bookie this horse is going well and they may take that as a prompt to cut it's price, if you are jumping onto these market moves without being in the know then you would be thorn in the bookies side, you're not really adding value to them you're just increasing their liability on that selection.

- Exploiting mistakes / wrong prices looking for mistakes is one way to come to attention very quickly, stay away from blatantly obvious mistakes, your bet will be resettled and you'll become a monitored customer

- Confidence staking if you're betting an odd fiver and then lump on selections when you have very high confidence (say maybe 100 quid) then you'll be very hard to beat if you're anyway knowledgeable as it'll take alot of losing fivers to get back losses

Definitely an argument that overnight prices in races with unexposed horses, available to pittances, are there to give bookies a nod as to which are fancied, ruining the price for heavier hitters.

Have been blocked by Ladbrokes for more than 10 years now, as I backed a horse that I fancied (finished placed in a novice hurdle, unfashionable trainer - I think Pink Suitcase was the name of the horse). Priced up at 16s, I backed it each way and was gambled into second favourite, and won. They presumed that I was in the know. Im sure I would have lost the winnings back to them within weeks, had they had the patience.

ComplyOrDie

Morgans wrote: »

Definitely an argument that overnight prices in races with unexposed horses, available to pittances, are there to give bookies a nod as to which are fancied, ruining the price for heavier hitters.

Have been blocked by Ladbrokes for more than 10 years now, as I backed a horse that I fancied (finished placed in a novice hurdle, unfashionable trainer - I think Pink Suitcase was the name of the horse). Priced up at 16s, I backed it each way and was gambled into second favourite, and won. They presumed that I was in the know. Im sure I would have lost the winnings back to them within weeks, had they had the patience.

The last decent account i had was restricted because i was backing a horse called Largy Debut. I had no inside info but his talent was public knowledge way ahead of his run https://twitter.com/RathbarryStud/status/1228675534802079744 bookies priced him up at crazy odds and i kept going back again and again

He went from 20s into 7/4 and finished 3rd
A horrible way to lose an account

BorneTobyWilde

How is it even legal for Bookies to openly show that we only take money from people, if you win we ban you . What kinda law is that, surely it's not a legally fair practice .

BorneTobyWilde

So easy to make money on paper backing hores, but you're not allowed to win with bookies.

IAMAMORON

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

So easy to make money on paper backing hores, but you're not allowed to win with bookies.

If you are serious about getting on, the exchanges and the track bookies will always give you a price. If you really fancy it you will get on in the ring.

I am not defending the chunts, but there is no point whining about the way they cover their ass online. Otherwise you would have every jockey in Newmarket screwing them everyday, they can't let that happen.

BorneTobyWilde

Exchanges are a bit of a joke, you rarely get a bet matched.

The Tetrarch

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Exchanges are a bit of a joke, you rarely get a bet matched.

I only bet on an exchange. This week I had a bet at 930/1.
You will get matched. You might have to put up the price you want, and then wait and see if it is matched. If you do not get the price then no bet.
Not getting the amount or the price you want also applies with bookmakers.

I bet on horse racing, golf, soccer, athletics, cycling, but only outright on long timeframe events e.g. US Masters golf and other golf majors, soccer world cup, Olympic games, Tour de France.

lemush

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Exchanges are a bit of a joke, you rarely get a bet matched.

You must be on about betdaq not betfair.

Dr. Bre

Don’t do bookie bets like placepot and lucky 15. There is a reason why the bookies created these bets

BorneTobyWilde

You can be forever winning if you back 3 horses in a field of say 8 - 10, where the favorite is at least 11/4. Many races fit this bill. I remember winning 8 races in a row doing this.
Why back one horse in 3 different different races, when you can ban 3 in the one race to have a better win percent. You could go on a run of 30 races without a win backing one horse per race in various size fields, backing 3 in small fields means you win most of the time.
Needs to be a decent price favorite , at least 11/4
You can also easy eliminate 3 outsiders that could never win, so that odds are even better that you'll hit a winner.

I used to do this on paper and make 100 plus points a week profit. But putting it into practice is the thing

Hulk Hands

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How is it even legal for Bookies to openly show that we only take money from people, if you win we ban you . What kinda law is that, surely it's not a legally fair practice .

It sounds awful when you first hear about it but its actually a better system for 99.9% of punters. Even winning punters. Some think if bookmakers removed restrictions, betting would just continue as normal, as if bookies would just bleed money freely and be happy about it.

They'd instantly remove all concessions like MB and BOG and extra places. They'd take 3 times as much margin. And all the value in the market would be instantly snapped up by a very small group of syndicates with dozens of accounts ready to jump on any price that's wrong, which would defeat the purpose of allowing restricted people on in the first place. Some, like Bet365, would stop offering racing altogether.

In the last few years about 5 bookies have offered a market to restricted customers, to win 500 quid on all racing, after 10am and with high margin, no extra places and no best odds guaranteed. 4 of the 5 have shelved it currently as it's not possible for them to make a profit.

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Don’t do bookie bets like placepot and lucky 15. There is a reason why the bookies created these bets

Betvictor removed Lucky 15's temporarily last year they were losing so much money from them!

Multiples work in the bookmakers favour if they are 'bad' bets. Think your randomly selected saturday accum. The margin on Chelsea to win multiplys onto city to win and so on.

Works in reverse if you have 'good' bets. If you back one that's 10s but should be 6s, and one that's 16's but should be 9s, the margin from bet A will multiply with the same from bet B. It's especially affective on each way multiples where the place terms are in your favour across a few races.

Beginners should stick to singles though

robbiezero

Hulk Hands wrote: »

It sounds awful when you first hear about it but its actually a better system for 99.9% of punters. Even winning punters. Some think if bookmakers removed restrictions, betting would just continue as normal, as if bookies would just bleed money freely and be happy about it.

They'd instantly remove all concessions like MB and BOG and extra places. They'd take 3 times as much margin. And all the value in the market would be instantly snapped up by a very small group of syndicates with dozens of accounts ready to jump on any price that's wrong, which would defeat the purpose of allowing restricted people on in the first place. Some, like Bet365, would stop offering racing altogether.

In the last few years about 5 bookies have offered a market to restricted customers, to win 500 quid on all racing, after 10am and with high margin, no extra places and no best odds guaranteed. 4 of the 5 have shelved it currently as it's not possible for them to make a profit.




Betvictor removed Lucky 15's temporarily last year they were losing so much money from them!

Multiples work in the bookmakers favour if they are 'bad' bets. Think your randomly selected saturday accum. The margin on Chelsea to win multiplys onto city to win and so on.

Works in reverse if you have 'good' bets. If you back one that's 10s but should be 6s, and one that's 16's but should be 9s, the margin from bet A will multiply with the same from bet B. It's especially affective on each way multiples where the place terms are in your favour across a few races.

Beginners should stick to singles though

I'm surprised in this day and age with real time data analysis and alerting that their IT systems can't mitigate against a sudden flood of betting at an off-peak time e.g. the night before or early morning.
Surely they could have a detection system that would just suspend betting on a horse after a certain threshold of liability until a trader has had a look etc.

Hulk Hands

robbiezero wrote: »

I'm surprised in this day and age with real time data analysis and alerting that their IT systems can't mitigate against a sudden flood of betting at an off-peak time e.g. the night before or early morning.
Surely they could have a detection system that would just suspend betting on a horse after a certain threshold of liability until a trader has had a look etc.

Is that not defeating the purpose of the mythical argument though, that you're allowing all customers unrestricted access to a racing market? Hardly works if a selection comes offsite every time it's backed by 2/3 accounts tagged as smart, it's obviously more sharp bookmaker practice that would be outlawed in this hypothetical situation.

In reality yeah that's what would happen, a selection would come down once a couple of max bets went in. Book would shorten massively once attended to. 1 or 2 pro's would get the value and everyone else misses out

IAMAMORON

Dundalk
12.55 Zaffys Pride ( seemingly named after Kate's favourite Teddy Bear, true story)
2.30 Boyne River
3.05 Sliabh Aughty ( Hipsters Special )
3.40 Bluebeards Castle
Tramore
4.40 Merroir ( massively overpriced, 3rd in Galway)
Newbury
5.20 Byron Hill
Donny
2.15 Turandot ( Nessun Dorma special )
Chepstow
The too most important important things in life - never blow your money on fast women or slow horses, giving Wales a miss for the moment.

I have them all backed win only on the nose and the following multiples.

MultiplesStake & Returns

0.05
€147,458.07
7 Folds (€0.05 x 1) EW
@ 2948400.0


0.05
€134,882.48
6 Folds (€0.05 x 7) EW
@ 385071.43


0.05
€51,012.44
5 Folds (€0.05 x 21) EW
@ 48461.18


0.05
€10,342.40
4 Folds (€0.05 x 35) WIN ONLY
@ 5909.94