What Is A Great Strategy For Horse Race Betting?

RichardClain · 01-07-2020 3:15pm #1

Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?

posturingpat · 01-07-2020 3:18pm

Only bet what you can afford is number 1.

bladespin · 01-07-2020 3:38pm

posturingpat wrote: »

Only bet what you can afford is number 1.

Pick winners???

Nah, seriously, research, listen to those who know etc etc, it also helps to be 'around' it, know those in the game, not really for winner tips but they're pretty good at spotting the tankers - despite odds movement etc.

I do remember being advised the 'place' money is where it's at but never really tested that theory.

jordata · 01-07-2020 3:41pm

posturingpat wrote: »

Only bet what you can afford is number 1.

and number 2 remember the bookie always wins.

supremenovice · 01-07-2020 4:01pm

Stick to Group/Graded races where the horses race on level terms and are always trying their hardest. The form is more reliable among the best horses.
And watch the racing to draw your own conclusions.

Cherry_Cola · 01-07-2020 4:49pm

For me, put in only what you can afford to lose. Don't get upset if you lose and try to chase those losses. Consider it an investment in entertainment, I've had 50/1 shots beaten a hair and while it's sickening and I perhaps wouldn't make as much as I would have if they won, I got a good run for my money and I was invested in the entirety of the race. It's an exciting feeling.

Additionally for me, I only bet ew over odds of 12/1 for the most part, better off putting 20 win on anything lower than that in my view than a tenner ew.

If you're starting out, there are some great folks to follow on here and some other sites too, you'll know who the good ones are quickly enough.

tryfix · 01-07-2020 6:07pm

Whether they realise it or not most punters are better at picking in certain types of races than in others. Ye might have a knack of doing okay backing in big sprint handicaps and be a disaster at picking a winner in long distance races. Find the way that works best for you return-wise, otherwise you are going to keep throwing money at the bookies and chasing your losses.

Cherry_Cola · 01-07-2020 6:29pm

Also adding - open multiple accounts - Paddy/Bet365 and Skybet - this is because the prices/places vary wildly between them all. Paddy has gotten terrible for prices these days. Ladbrokes are scum so I avoid those.

Also if you're young and looking to go for a mortgage - stick to cash only where possible or use means that your bank can't trace back to you.

The Tetrarch · 01-07-2020 6:59pm

Bet with the organisation that charges you the least to have a bet.
Bookmaker margins are from 15% upwards and can be as high at 35%/40%.
The betting exchange I use charges me 5%.

You think they do not charge you?
If they offer 5/1 and you can get 6/1 elsewhere then the first of those is charging you more.

The price (or odds) is perhaps the most important factor in deciding to bet or not to bet.
If a horse has a 10% chance to win you should not bet if the odds offered are 5/1. If the odds offered are 25/1 then it is a bet. You will lose 90% of the time on a 10% chance, but when you win you get well paid, enough to pay for all the losing bets you will have. Everyone back losers.

The Hoarse Whisperer · 01-07-2020 7:29pm

I think betting on horses is like most things in life, the harder you work the luckier you get.

But making a profit and beating the bookies over time is difficult. Getting value in your bets is key. Its all about the price and never just about the one bet imo.

As for strategies, one that I employ could be described as a dual staking policy i suppose.

I think one needs to be betting regularly, myself anyway, to keep knowledge levels and instincts high and basically just be exercising the faculties of the mind used in betting on horses. When I am betting regularly the better opportunities seem to present themselves more often. However the problem is the profits made on those better opportunities are offset by all the other bets I make.

So the strategy is simple really. Most of the bets I make are for mickey mouse stakes ie one or two euro so that any losses I make on the vast bulk of my bets are kept to a minimum and then I aim to recoup those losses and more on the so called better betting opportunites where I Increase the stakes. Obviously this takes a bit of discipline to wait until I feel a better betting opportunity arrives and then again to reduce the stakes after.

But I know for me even just betting tiny amounts motivates me to invest time and effort into the bet and its this work that I believe pays off even if not immediately.

famagusta · 01-07-2020 7:47pm

The Tetrarch wrote:

Bet with the organisation that charges you the least to have a bet. Bookmaker margins are from 15% upwards and can be as high at 35%/40%. The betting exchange I use charges me 5%.

Why don't you pay the 2%? Go into your account and change the rewards plan

The Tetrarch · 01-07-2020 8:06pm

famagusta wrote: »

Why don't you pay the 2%? Go into your account and change the rewards plan

I looked up my account just now. It says 2%.

robbiezero · 01-07-2020 9:40pm

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

For me, put in only what you can afford to lose. Don't get upset if you lose and try to chase those losses. Consider it an investment in entertainment, I've had 50/1 shots beaten a hair and while it's sickening and I perhaps wouldn't make as much as I would have if they won, I got a good run for my money and I was invested in the entirety of the race. It's an exciting feeling.

Additionally for me, I only bet ew over odds of 12/1 for the most part, better off putting 20 win on anything lower than that in my view than a tenner ew.

If you're starting out, there are some great folks to follow on here and some other sites too, you'll know who the good ones are quickly enough.

Always have a few quid put up to lay on betfair at odds-on in running on bets at large odds - 1.2, 1.5 or even 2.0 depending on stake/odds etc.
Nothing worse than having a 10/1 shot etc, just touched off that trades at e.g. 1.1 etc in running and ye you still up losing money (assuming a win bet).

Turbohymac · 01-07-2020 9:46pm

Hi op..a friend of mine has a saying how to become a millionaire from betting.....start with 2 ..
It's a fools game with large betting companies luring many people into major debt.. I've yet to find anyone that has beaten the bookies constantly and are actually making a living from it..
If there was good money to be made then why would anyone bother with a day job

famagusta · 01-07-2020 10:05pm

The Tetrarch wrote:

I looked up my account just now. It says 2%.

Good man, anyone using the exchange should check that they are on the 2% plan, the others are a joke

Truthvader · 01-07-2020 10:33pm

Turbohymac wrote: »

Hi op..a friend of mine has a saying how to become a millionaire from betting.....start with 2 ..
It's a fools game with large betting companies luring many people into major debt.. I've yet to find anyone that has beaten the bookies constantly and are actually making a living from it..
If there was good money to be made then why would anyone bother with a day job

Its actually worse than that. Knew a guy 30 years ago that busted a bookie. They just refused to pay. All you can do is object to their licence. In that case the owner pretended they didn't know a out the bets. Its a lose lose lose game. Even if you deal with an honest bookie they just rrfuse to accept your bets if you are winning

BoldReason · 01-07-2020 11:25pm

I won't give you a strategy as tbh it is different depending on who you ask 1 punter said earlier that only bet in group races and tbh I see the angle but to me I feel I have absolutely 0 edge there and about 90% of my bets are in handicaps as there is a bit more imagination involved for me and I can usually read the big field flat handicaps fairly well.

As tryfix said find out the races that you can get the best read on and concentrate on those.

The usual use as many accounts you can get your hands on for as long as possible.

Be open minded on each way bets. Examine both parts of the bet independently don't bet each way for the sake of it because the odds are good. I've often backed 5/2 shots each way albeit that would probably be a cut off and often backed 100/1 shots win only.
But you can often find great value in an each way bet at less than 5/1.
As in you could have a 4/7 fav 5/2 second fav and 12/1 the rest in an 8 runner race. The second fav could be a solid bet at 5/2 and he could be a 1/10 shot to finish in the places. You are effectively getting 1/2 for the place and also having a decent bet at 5/2 the win.

I will give you a few donts.
1. Do not use a bookmakers cash out feature under any circumstances. I would say if the sum of money involved is significantly life changing then perhaps consider but other than that. A bets a bet and let it ride.
2. Do not bet each way on races if the place part of the bet is a very bad bet. ie 7 runner races as well as a few other situations.
3. Do not bet each way on races if the win part of bet is a very bad bet. ie you should always see a situation where the horse has a chance of winning the race.
4. Don't back tips from people you have no notion of where the tip came from. If you know someone we'll and you know for sure they have good info maybe go for it. If you meet Jimmy down the pub who says his mate works in Joseph O Briens but you don't know who or what he is talking about then tbh just ignore it. You will be the better for it long term even if the odd one wins.
5. Don't ever evaluate things in the short term. If you trust what your method is then stick with it for a good sample.
6. Do not get hung up on bets that you believe should have won that for one reason or another didn't. Note it and just move on.
7. Don't be afraid to have a multiple if you believe there is value in all legs. Within reason.
8. Do not pay for tips online or through any other channels.

leko99 · 02-07-2020 9:23am

BoldReason wrote: »

I won't give you a strategy as tbh it is different depending on who you ask 1 punter said earlier that only bet in group races and tbh I see the angle but to me I feel I have absolutely 0 edge there and about 90% of my bets are in handicaps as there is a bit more imagination involved for me and I can usually read the big field flat handicaps fairly well.

As tryfix said find out the races that you can get the best read on and concentrate on those.

The usual use as many accounts you can get your hands on for as long as possible.

Be open minded on each way bets. Examine both parts of the bet independently don't bet each way for the sake of it because the odds are good. I've often backed 5/2 shots each way albeit that would probably be a cut off and often backed 100/1 shots win only.
But you can often find great value in an each way bet at less than 5/1.
As in you could have a 4/7 fav 5/2 second fav and 12/1 the rest in an 8 runner race. The second fav could be a solid bet at 5/2 and he could be a 1/10 shot to finish in the places. You are effectively getting 1/2 for the place and also having a decent bet at 5/2 the win.

I will give you a few donts.
1. Do not use a bookmakers cash out feature under any circumstances. I would say if the sum of money involved is significantly life changing then perhaps consider but other than that. A bets a bet and let it ride.
2. Do not bet each way on races if the place part of the bet is a very bad bet. ie 7 runner races as well as a few other situations.
3. Do not bet each way on races if the win part of bet is a very bad bet. ie you should always see a situation where the horse has a chance of winning the race.
4. Don't back tips from people you have no notion of where the tip came from. If you know someone we'll and you know for sure they have good info maybe go for it. If you meet Jimmy down the pub who says his mate works in Joseph O Briens but you don't know who or what he is talking about then tbh just ignore it. You will be the better for it long term even if the odd one wins.
5. Don't ever evaluate things in the short term. If you trust what your method is then stick with it for a good sample.
6. Do not get hung up on bets that you believe should have won that for one reason or another didn't. Note it and just move on.
7. Don't be afraid to have a multiple if you believe there is value in all legs. Within reason.
8. Do not pay for tips online or through any other channels.

If a 5/2 shot eachway places do you still not lose money on your stake?

BoldReason · 02-07-2020 9:52am

leko99 wrote: »

If a 5/2 shot eachway places do you still not lose money on your stake?

If you consider that it's one bet then yes but I think that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. I'd consider it 2 bets myself. If both bets are value then it is a winner long term.

I wouldn't do it often but I wouldn't ignore the possibility of capping each way bets at certain odds.

realdanbreen · 02-07-2020 11:51am

Current form and the going are what you need to go on. Anything after that is just dressing on top. One of the main problems with some punters is over analysing the race.

RivetingRoger · 02-07-2020 12:20pm

RichardClain wrote: »

Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?

Yep.
See what Sting is on, and lay
Watch the money rolll in

jonhpatricken · 02-07-2020 3:15pm

I lost a lot in the first quarter that I started, but now I'm making a profit. But, like everyone else, I have good and bad days. I'm not an expert, but my system works for me, I'm just sharing what I know and I hope it helps someone.

Betting on horse racing is like a puzzle. Obviously, the pieces of the puzzle are in the shape of horses, jockey, trainer, owner, race conditions, soil etc.

There are several strategies out there, however, choosing the right horses requires your own knowledge. Like any other skill, you need to practice and study horse racing. With experience, you will certainly develop a strategy that works best for yourself.

When I started doing what I do in horse racing, it was very impressive not to know anything. As you can see, there are MANY things you can observe when choosing the right horse. You need to develop your own strategy and weigh which factors are most important to you. Meet the horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and routes and some help with horse racing tips (horseracingtips.today) that are very useful. You don't have to compete with everyone; there are professionals who have been betting for years, but don't be discouraged, we all have to start from somewhere. Above all, you must love what you do. Watching horse racing really amuses me personally, even in lost times, but, of course, the goal is to make money while enjoying what we do.

Peintre Celebre · 02-07-2020 4:25pm

Turbohymac wrote: »

Hi op..a friend of mine has a saying how to become a millionaire from betting.....start with 2 ..
It's a fools game with large betting companies luring many people into major debt.. I've yet to find anyone that has beaten the bookies constantly and are actually making a living from it..
If there was good money to be made then why would anyone bother with a day job

Of course there are people making money. A minority, but they exist

Advice I'd give would be don't chase your losses

Do your own tissue prices

Don't chase your losses

Open an account with every book you can

Don't chase your losses

Dont back odds on in a handicap

Plasandrunt · 03-07-2020 9:55pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Current form and the going are what you need to go on. Anything after that is just dressing on top. One of the main problems with some punters is over analysing the race.

I think the average punter doesn't analyse the form enough, backing a horse solely because you like the jockey on board or backing a horse blind in a grade 1 because he'd won for you in a grade 5 last time out is madness.

I won't put any money down if I can't access the form guide, more and more betting shops aren't putting the RP form pages up on the boards too, very frustrating.

abarkie · 04-07-2020 4:02pm

robbiezero wrote: »

Always have a few quid put up to lay on betfair at odds-on in running on bets at large odds - 1.2, 1.5 or even 2.0 depending on stake/odds etc.
Nothing worse than having a 10/1 shot etc, just touched off that trades at e.g. 1.1 etc in running and ye you still up losing money (assuming a win bet).

This is something I do

Back something at say 10/1 but leave a lay bet at 1.5 and if it gets touched off then i have got my stake back, so no loss

A friend i go racing with just can't understand why i do this, but for me it is all about not losing

Mysterypunter · 04-07-2020 11:45pm

RichardClain wrote: »

Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?

Pass the betting shop, but seriously the number one for me is pick one and have your bollix on it, **** all them doubles and trebles and miracle accums, just load up on one, no betting tax in the shops so just one at a time, also, keep it to yourself, too many clowns boasting about betting, ignore them all, its an individual pursuit. And if you lose, suck it up

robbiezero · 05-07-2020 2:49pm

abarkie wrote: »

This is something I do

Back something at say 10/1 but leave a lay bet at 1.5 and if it gets touched off then i have got my stake back, so no loss

A friend i go racing with just can't understand why i do this, but for me it is all about not losing

Can't understand why people don't do this.

e.g. the likes of Stanhope winning in Navan Friday. 7/1 SP, 16/1 betfair SP. Thats 9 points to spare over the bookies. Surely its worthwhile putting up your stake (At the very least) at low odds.

As an aside, you probably are at nothing as a punter if you are backing the likes of the above for a win in the bookies rather than the exchanges.

IAMAMORON · 06-08-2020 12:56pm

I have started backing 3rd favourites blind in maidens ( flat and jumps ), backing on the nose can bring remarkable results, I am in profit since I started.

In Beginner Chases try to avoid odds on shots, even if they appear stones ahead on hurdle ratings. There is an intangible difference between hurdle and chase ratings. Despite that, following hurdlers blind over fences at shight odds gets pricey long term. If you cannot see it beaten and its price is 4/7 just watch the race. If the horse jumps well have a look at its' targets and try to get on at a more juicier price down the line. It only takes one clip of a heal to cause a fall and your odds on lump is goosed. Stick to Group 1's on the flat for odds on punting, more reliable.

laguacamaya · 06-08-2020 3:46pm

I don't really bet on horses anymore, apart from Cheltenham/Punchestown and possibly one of the bigger meetings on the flat. The bookies have a massive edge (15% and beyond-I've seen a greyhound race where all 6 dogs were priced at 7/2...).
How do you negate that edge?? No matter how astute you are and how much"insider information" you're privy to, it's simply incredibly difficult.
If you're serious about horse betting you should absolutely be using Betfair.
You should also be betting more liberally on Money Back offers (2nd, 3rd, 4th to the favourite- or if you're beaten by the favourite etc.)
That would be a good start...

madmoose · 07-08-2020 9:10am

If a low stake punter you need to take up those money back if second offers from william hill on certain meetings etc

I started doing the place insurance market for 10/1 shots instead of doing ew as the prices for double figures tend to be close to their price anyway so its a full win bet but cash back if places which has worked well at some of the bigger meetings recently.

grogi · 07-08-2020 9:13am

RichardClain wrote: »

Hi guys, does anyone have a good strategy for horse race betting?

Don't ever assume you will make any money on betting. Just don't.

Treat it as watching sports with extra energy, additional kick of adrenaline.

realdanbreen · 07-08-2020 9:31am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have started backing 3rd favourites blind in maidens ( flat and jumps ), backing on the nose can bring remarkable results, I am in profit since I started. .

Wow! You reckon that's the way to go then.:D

Morgans · 07-08-2020 9:31am

Hard to have any rules but

1. You can beat the bookies.

What the bookies have in their favour is that they are playing the long game. Humans can be victims to emotions, whether its chasing losses, betting just out of boredom, betting as an escape from daily life, out and out addiction. The fact that a €100 win a few years back doesn't excite you now. The more you have minimise those impulses the better chances you have.

2. The adage that the only way to win a small fortune on horses is to start with a large one

I started out thinking that what was meant by this is that you will lose a small fortune in the end. However, I think that it could be read (and maybe more accurately) that its easier to make money betting on short odds than long odds. You are more likely to win (random number example, 5K) by having 20K on a 1/4 shot than continually having 200 quid on 25/1 shots. Obviously 1/4 shots lose and you need to have the bank to cope with that. But if that's factored in. Its a route that most punters sneer at as its often about trying to be clever, finding that 10s shot that's overpriced when there is a sense in how to beat the bookies to 'just back winners'. If the horse wins, you don't lose. If you go to a financial advisor they would boast of returns of 10% on investment with no guarantee of course. 1/10 horses go mostly unbacked as you dont get enough return on investment by punters.

3. Don't sneer at multiples

For the everyday punter, it always makes sense to me to have your bet on the single and then, if it wins, make the decision on whether you want to put it all on the second horse you were tempted to put in a double. You can make a decision lets say if the shape of the race changes, horses drift etc. However, there are plenty of pro punters who do use them to seriously break the bookies - many will tell you that its the only way to win big. See the case of bet365 refusing to pay out the 'girl' in the north, who may or may not have been placing huge multiples for a known professional punter.

There are many ways to beat the bookies. Not many do. Anyway, Find out what you are trying to do, stick with it, and hone it. Specialising is good. Try not to get too excited by good days or depressed on bad days. The less emotion the better. Do what you can not to let it affect the other important things in life.

realdanbreen · 07-08-2020 9:57am

Morgans wrote: »

.

3. Don't sneer at multiples.

Hear Hear.

If you want to make a few bob and at the same time get some enjoyment then the best way for the small punter, and I would be one, is to put a modest(affordable obviously ) sum on a multiple, say a double or patent.

There aren't too many around like Barney Curley or JP who can throw five figure sums onto short priced favourites.
Gambling is an enjoyable pastime for many but is almost a dirty word if you were to pay attention to the likes of Declan Lynch or Ray Darcy who cite the case of that postman who fiddled all round him to demonise the ordinary punter.

Morgans · 07-08-2020 10:08am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Hear Hear.

If you want to make a few bob and at the same time get some enjoyment then the best way for the small punter, and I would be one, is to put a modest(affordable obviously ) sum on a multiple, say a double or patent.

There aren't too many around like Barney Curley or JP who can throw five figure sums onto short priced favourites.
Gambling is an enjoyable pastime for many but is almost a dirty word if you were to pay attention to the likes of Declan Lynch or Ray Darcy who cite the case of that postman who fiddled all round him to demonise the ordinary punter.

I think for Declan Lynch its the lack of responsibility on the part of the bookies/gambling industry who are happy to take advantage of those who cant afford to bet but are compelled to do so - to the point of encouraging it.

Bookies will happily encourage bets from vulnerable but a short winning run of ew doubles is one of the quickest ways for bookies to stop taking bets off you.

Don't listen to d'Arcy - the best advice on this thread.

Hulk Hands · 07-08-2020 10:45am

Firstly, you can win at gambling. It's not rocket science whatsoever and as much as 3% of punters would be classed as long term winners, with many more than 3% total of accounts restricted (winners tend to open more accounts than losers).

For starters though forget about the horses or sport itself. People pay by far the most attention to learning the sport in question when it's by far the least important component. I know lads who couldn't tell you the rules of Golf or Tennis but would be long term gambling winners at both, simply because they understand the industry. There's been plenty of geeks from stats or computer science courses in college who know zero about sport but are instantly winning punters as they understand the basic probability behind it. Whereas the majority of even winning punters who are more sport minded spend a few years faffing about looking at sports before learning the fundamentals.

Google overrounds and how to calculate them and how they're applied. Learn about arbitrage, expected margin and bonus abuse. Learn about the exchanges and how it's generally used as a guide to the 100% price (true price). Important to know why some accounts get restricted and which bets bookmakers don't want you placing. BoldReason gave some good guides on "Bad Each Way", which is the ultimate low hanging fruit for a racing punter. In general, gambling is about backing the right price, not the right selection.

Until someone can price a race accurately and pick off the prices that are wrong, they're essentially bluffing. There are ways to cheat however. Open an account with all bookies anyway and start taking best price from Oddschecker as a rule for starters. Mixing in some small arbitrage and bad each way is a good way of learning the system, although don't go overboard as you want to keep accounts for future. Singles are a useful way to start, but down the line multiples are the ultimate dangerous tool (if the margin is in your favour in 3 or 4 separate bets, this +EV multiplies out in a multiple). After a while try to start pricing things yourself before you look at the odds provided.

IAMAMORON · 07-08-2020 10:59am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have started backing 3rd favourites blind in maidens ( flat and jumps ), backing on the nose can bring remarkable results, I am in profit since I started.

realdanbreen wrote: »

Wow! You reckon that's the way to go then.:D

6 maidens today. Current 3rd favs -

7th Aug SANDOWN 12:35 MAIDEN STAKES 0m 5f 10y - Each Way
6. Pure Dreamer
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SLIGO 13:00 6F STAKES 5f 160yds - Each Way
2. Zoom Call
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SANDOWN 14:20 MAIDEN STAKES 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
4. Pied Piper
6/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:10 5F STAKES 5f - Each Way
2. Mateo Cruz
7/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:40 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
2. Eternal Flame
11/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 17:10 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
9. Zephron
5/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

I have a 20c ew 6 fold, 5 fold and 20c win 4fold. The rest are singles. Bet costs € 7.40, potential return of 10 grand. If they all place I will get back just over a 100 euro. 5 winners potential over a grand more and 4 wins you might be good for 100 -150 , it depends what come in

Gets frustrating when 3 win but actually a false economy, the trebles cost you an extra 4 and you are just scraping your money back. There is an argument around them, but if you draw a blank it clicks up if you are backing everyday. For example a treble at 7/2 returns a profit of 8 quid. Today I will have a fiver on each as well. If the first 3 do not come in I might up to a tenner, see how it goes.

Wish me luck Daniel.

Hulk Hands · 07-08-2020 11:03am

My god there's some rubbish in this thread

Morgans · 07-08-2020 11:25am

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Firstly, you can win at gambling. It's not rocket science whatsoever and as much as 3% of punters would be classed as long term winners, with many more than 3% total of accounts restricted (winners tend to open more accounts than losers).

For starters though forget about the horses or sport itself. People pay by far the most attention to learning the sport in question when it's by far the least important component. I know lads who couldn't tell you the rules of Golf or Tennis but would be long term gambling winners at both, simply because they understand the industry. There's been plenty of geeks from stats or computer science courses in college who know zero about sport but are instantly winning punters as they understand the basic probability behind it. Whereas the majority of even winning punters who are more sport minded spend a few years faffing about looking at sports before learning the fundamentals.

Google overrounds and how to calculate them and how they're applied. Learn about arbitrage, expected margin and bonus abuse. Learn about the exchanges and how it's generally used as a guide to the 100% price (true price). Important to know why some accounts get restricted and which bets bookmakers don't want you placing. BoldReason gave some good guides on "Bad Each Way", which is the ultimate low hanging fruit for a racing punter. In general, gambling is about backing the right price, not the right selection.

Until someone can price a race accurately and pick off the prices that are wrong, they're essentially bluffing. There are ways to cheat however. Open an account with all bookies anyway and start taking best price from Oddschecker as a rule for starters. Mixing in some small arbitrage and bad each way is a good way of learning the system, although don't go overboard as you want to keep accounts for future. Singles are a useful way to start, but down the line multiples are the ultimate dangerous tool (if the margin is in your favour in 3 or 4 separate bets, this +EV multiplies out in a multiple). After a while try to start pricing things yourself before you look at the odds provided.

This is far easier said that done. The mathematical approach is well established and in essence its what most punters are doing knowingly or unknowingly. Its far easier when it is applied to card counting etc. In effect taking the horse racing knowledge out of it and looking for mathematical inaccuracies. Backing a horse in a 2 horse race that is 11/10 with one bookie and the second horse being 11/10 with another etc.

Creating your own prices accurately needs to have an understanding of the sport, especially when bookies have vastly more resources to ensure their accuracy. So the advice to specialise is important as even if its unknowingly done, you are effectively, if not explicitly, pricing a race and looking for edges.

Its one of the reasons why low key obscure events are where 'fraudsters' are most likely to target. The edge is more obvious and there are greater opportunities for ricks.

realdanbreen · 07-08-2020 11:32am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

6 maidens today. Current 3rd favs -

7th Aug SANDOWN 12:35 MAIDEN STAKES 0m 5f 10y - Each Way
6. Pure Dreamer
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SLIGO 13:00 6F STAKES 5f 160yds - Each Way
2. Zoom Call
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug SANDOWN 14:20 MAIDEN STAKES 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
4. Pied Piper
6/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:10 5F STAKES 5f - Each Way
2. Mateo Cruz
7/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 16:40 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
2. Eternal Flame
11/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
7th Aug TIPPERARY 17:10 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 115yds - Each Way
9. Zephron
5/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

I have a 20c ew 6 fold, 5 fold and 20c win 4fold. The rest are singles. Bet costs € 7.40, potential return of 10 grand. If they all place I will get back just over a 100 euro. 5 winners potential over a grand more and 4 wins you might be good for 100 -150 , it depends what come in

Gets frustrating when 3 win but actually a false economy, the trebles cost you an extra 4 and you are just scraping your money back. There is an argument around them, but if you draw a blank it clicks up if you are backing everyday. For example a treble at 7/2 returns a profit of 8 quid. Today I will have a fiver on each as well. If the first 3 do not come in I might up to a tenner, see how it goes.

Wish me luck Daniel.

See you've just tempted me now to have a little squeeze on some of these!

Anyway bet of luck, not that you'll need it, after all they are 3rd favourites so what can go wrong.:cool:

Hulk Hands · 07-08-2020 11:48am

Of course it's important to learn the sport Morgans. My point is that it's a lot less important than learning the basic probability first.

A typical punter in Ireland starts going into bookies at 18-23 and wasting fivers on randomly selected horses or football accums. The majority stay in that bubble. If they're good, they'll start learning form or start studying teamsheets and make educated selections, while still losing money as they're betting into 120% markets or they're taking 6/1 in Boyles when 8s and an extra place are available on hills. A lot stay in this bubble. The winners will eventually learn the maths and the industry and will start placing +EV bets but only after a period spent wasted.

Contrast this with the maths geeks coming out of college. They understand arbitrage straight off the bat. They'll calculate the overrounds of every market they bet into and will stay away from high margin ones. They'll reference Betfair for prices. These people will break even or win straight off the bat. They can then start applying the heavy sports study to start pricing everything themselves and really make hay.

You cant get to point B (winning) without doing point A first (learning the fundamentals). That's simply my point. Spend a month learning overrounds and arbs first

Morgans wrote: »

I started out thinking that what was meant by this is that you will lose a small fortune in the end. However, I think that it could be read (and maybe more accurately) that its easier to make money betting on short odds than long odds. You are more likely to win (random number example, 5K) by having 20K on a 1/4 shot than continually having 200 quid on 25/1 shots. Obviously 1/4 shots lose and you need to have the bank to cope with that. But if that's factored in. Its a route that most punters sneer at as its often about trying to be clever, finding that 10s shot that's overpriced when there is a sense in how to beat the bookies to 'just back winners'. If the horse wins, you don't lose. If you go to a financial advisor they would boast of returns of 10% on investment with no guarantee of course. 1/10 horses go mostly unbacked as you dont get enough return on investment by punters.

This is plain wrong btw. I think you even know yourself that its wrong. Are you maintaining that it's better to back winners than the overpriced ones? That's arguing against basic maths.

You are not more likely to win 5k by backing 1/4 continuously than 25/1. There's been plenty of smart arses who've had 'systems' where they assumed all long odds on shots were overpriced and they got their arse handed to them long term. The Betfair market is made by a handful or large traders in the 10 mins before a race. None of these are afraid of backing long odds on so this idea that a 1/10 shot that should be 1/33 goes unbacked is nonsense.

Morgans · 07-08-2020 12:23pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I think you even know yourself that its wrong. Are you maintaining that it's better to back winners than the overpriced ones? That's arguing against basic maths.

I am saying that 100%. It is better to back winners than overpriced losers. Horses that outrun their position in the market but return nothing. I don't go out of my way to find the shortest price each day and back accordingly. But backing good favourites isnt a bad strategy.

What I am NOT saying is that all 1/4 shots are worth backing. That's where the knowledge of horse racing comes in. In fact, what I am really saying i suppose, is that backing a 1/4 shot that is in effect 1/8 shot is more likely to bring success that backing a 25/1 shot that should be 16s.

But if you believe that all form is available, you know the potential of each horse, and their likliehood to run to that potential, picking the winner is a very viable strategy. There is a fetish over finding the value - the overpriced horse. When you are punting on the 25/1 shot, generally there are a good deal of elements that need to go in their favour for you to collect. In fact, your analysis might have been correct and and outruns its odds. However, you lose but and while it shows your analysis is good, you need to pick winning bets to beat the bookies.

Its not the 25/1 each way bets that the bookies dont like, its the each way bets at 3/1. For good reason.

Morgans · 07-08-2020 12:39pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Of course it's important to learn the sport Morgans. My point is that it's a lot less important than learning the basic probability first.

A typical punter in Ireland starts going into bookies at 18-23 and wasting fivers on randomly selected horses or football accums. The majority stay in that bubble. If they're good, they'll start learning form or start studying teamsheets and make educated selections, while still losing money as they're betting into 120% markets or they're taking 6/1 in Boyles when 8s and an extra place are available on hills. A lot stay in this bubble. The winners will eventually learn the maths and the industry and will start placing +EV bets but only after a period spent wasted.

I dont think they are looking to beat the bookies any more than any casual punter is doing so at a day at the races. I could point out to a friend at the races that you dont have to take 8/1 with the bookies on the rails, that its its 9.8 on betfair, but its not really the point.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Betfair market is made by a handful or large traders in the 10 mins before a race. None of these are afraid of backing long odds on so this idea that a 1/10 shot that should be 1/33 goes unbacked is nonsense.

Yes, even after it appeared shocking at first, horses are still getting beat in running at 1/999. However, those punting at those odds must feel that its a system that works, despite the occasional loss.

ComplyOrDie · 07-08-2020 8:44pm

As someone who has beaten most bookies I can say some of the biggest factors that helped me are as follows:

- Think outside the box (find an angle or area to be an expert in, e.g. mdn hurdles, claimers)
- stay away from high profile racing ( watch but don't bet, too many eyes are on these and as such the value is rarely available)
- Don't follow the market unless you're trading positions, If you follow others then their money and your money is increasing bookies liability hence prices contract..... People think a gamble is underway when these moves are not normally connections
- Pay attention to smaller yards, they usually run in cycles (horse got form in certain months etc) or target certain race's/tracks. An example would be Steven mahon in ballinrobe ( has had multiple horse place at 100/1 overt the last 5 years
- only back value (horses whos price is bigger than the chance you think it has of winning) ask yourself this if the race was run 10 times, how many times would it win
- if you are getting very good value, double them up. People tend to look negative towards multis, however they are fantastic as your multiplying the edge. Some of my best payouts have been doubles
- try to avoid betting the night before, bookie limits are low, they are waiting for informed custom to help them shape the market and you'll be restricted quicker if your taking advantage
- enjoy it while it lasts, as the road is short when your winning
- the best angle I could give someone is to exploit ew extra markets, it not that difficult to identify outsiders who will finish in the first half of the field. One of the uk bookies (green) have fantastic markets that are ripe for the picking

I could go on but some decent advice I'd love to give my younger self above

The downside is after a while you can't get money on, just two of my accounts below and as you can see I'm now heavily restricted

IAMAMORON · 08-08-2020 11:19am

Alot of know alling going on. You can't beat a bit of sheer gumption however. Gumption and instinct counts for twice the price.

Like gumption tells you that Gavin Ryan is a savage wee pilot and is pouring on the winners. He could be the next Ben Curtis for all we know.

Great to see the Curragh survived the curfew.

Hopefully we might get going to Listowel yet. "Throw some downthere."

ComplyOrDie · 08-08-2020 12:02pm

Morgans wrote: »

Its not the 25/1 each way bets that the bookies dont like, its the each way bets at 3/1. For good reason.

Interesting point, which brings me to what bookies don't like, common reasons for someone being restricted:

- Beating the SP if you frequently bet on selections whos sp is lower than the price you took (this suggests you have decent knowledge of industry/markets and will be harder to beat as you are consistently getting value)

- Jumping on Market moves if you are first on you are giving them info e.g. owners or stable staff would tend to be some of the first to back a horse, this is essentially telling the bookie this horse is going well and they may take that as a prompt to cut it's price, if you are jumping onto these market moves without being in the know then you would be thorn in the bookies side, you're not really adding value to them you're just increasing their liability on that selection.

- Exploiting mistakes / wrong prices looking for mistakes is one way to come to attention very quickly, stay away from blatantly obvious mistakes, your bet will be resettled and you'll become a monitored customer

- Confidence staking if you're betting an odd fiver and then lump on selections when you have very high confidence (say maybe 100 quid) then you'll be very hard to beat if you're anyway knowledgeable as it'll take alot of losing fivers to get back losses

IAMAMORON · 08-08-2020 12:19pm

3rd Favs in maidens for today. My gumption is rising.

8th Aug ASCOT 12:40 MAIDEN STAKES 0m 7f 0y - Win
9. Motataabeq
5/1
8th Aug NEWMARKET 13:40 MAIDEN FILLIES STAKES 0m 7f 0y - Win
1. Arion Fox
9/2
8th Aug CORK 14:00 1M STAKES 1m - Win
2. April Showers
16/5
8th Aug CORK 14:30 5F STAKES 5f - Win
2. Hyde Park Barracks
15/4
8th Aug KILBEGGAN 16:40 2M HURDLE 2m - Win
7. Grange Walk
5/1
8th Aug KILBEGGAN 17:45 2M 4F HURDLE 2m 3f 180yds - Win
9. Thousand Tears
11/4

20c ew 6fold, 20c ew 5fold 20 c win 4 fold. € 5.60. fiver singles on the first 3. If no winner double to a tenner for the last three. All you big shot spenders can add a zero if you like, you know you who are you beautiful salooon driving fat cat big shots. Have a good one.

Morgans · 08-08-2020 12:39pm

ComplyOrDie wrote: »

Interesting point, which brings me to what bookies don't like, common reasons for someone being restricted:

- Beating the SP if you frequently bet on selections whos sp is lower than the price you took (this suggests you have decent knowledge of industry/markets and will be harder to beat as you are consistently getting value)

- Jumping on Market moves if you are first on you are giving them info e.g. owners or stable staff would tend to be some of the first to back a horse, this is essentially telling the bookie this horse is going well and they may take that as a prompt to cut it's price, if you are jumping onto these market moves without being in the know then you would be thorn in the bookies side, you're not really adding value to them you're just increasing their liability on that selection.

- Exploiting mistakes / wrong prices looking for mistakes is one way to come to attention very quickly, stay away from blatantly obvious mistakes, your bet will be resettled and you'll become a monitored customer

- Confidence staking if you're betting an odd fiver and then lump on selections when you have very high confidence (say maybe 100 quid) then you'll be very hard to beat if you're anyway knowledgeable as it'll take alot of losing fivers to get back losses

Definitely an argument that overnight prices in races with unexposed horses, available to pittances, are there to give bookies a nod as to which are fancied, ruining the price for heavier hitters.

Have been blocked by Ladbrokes for more than 10 years now, as I backed a horse that I fancied (finished placed in a novice hurdle, unfashionable trainer - I think Pink Suitcase was the name of the horse). Priced up at 16s, I backed it each way and was gambled into second favourite, and won. They presumed that I was in the know. Im sure I would have lost the winnings back to them within weeks, had they had the patience.

ComplyOrDie · 08-08-2020 1:39pm

Morgans wrote: »

Definitely an argument that overnight prices in races with unexposed horses, available to pittances, are there to give bookies a nod as to which are fancied, ruining the price for heavier hitters.

Have been blocked by Ladbrokes for more than 10 years now, as I backed a horse that I fancied (finished placed in a novice hurdle, unfashionable trainer - I think Pink Suitcase was the name of the horse). Priced up at 16s, I backed it each way and was gambled into second favourite, and won. They presumed that I was in the know. Im sure I would have lost the winnings back to them within weeks, had they had the patience.

The last decent account i had was restricted because i was backing a horse called Largy Debut. I had no inside info but his talent was public knowledge way ahead of his run https://twitter.com/RathbarryStud/status/1228675534802079744 bookies priced him up at crazy odds and i kept going back again and again

He went from 20s into 7/4 and finished 3rd
A horrible way to lose an account

BorneTobyWilde · 08-08-2020 1:48pm

How is it even legal for Bookies to openly show that we only take money from people, if you win we ban you . What kinda law is that, surely it's not a legally fair practice .

BorneTobyWilde · 08-08-2020 1:48pm

So easy to make money on paper backing hores, but you're not allowed to win with bookies.

What Is A Great Strategy For Horse Race Betting?

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