NFL Betting Thread 2018

eagle eye · 17-06-2020 12:23pm

chancer007 wrote:

"New Orleans Saints 10.5" win total any opinions how Brees will get on this season considering his recent comments? I think any chance the opposition get they will try & nail him..

You do realise that any chance they got they tied to 'nail him' his whole career?

eagle eye · 17-06-2020 12:25pm

chancer007 wrote:

"New Orleans Saints 10.5" win total any opinions how Brees will get on this season considering his recent comments? I think any chance the opposition get they will try & nail him..

You do realise that they've tried to nail him and every other QB every chance they've ever got?

chancer007 · 17-06-2020 12:38pm

I do...but what I've been reading is that even Brees own team-mates aren't happy with him..opposition revved up after his comments...can see some very late hard tackles going in on Brees...am going under 10.5 the Saints..

eagle eye · 17-06-2020 12:48pm

chancer007 wrote:

I do...but what I've been reading is that even Brees own team-mates aren't happy with him..opposition revved up after his comments...can see some very late hard tackles going in on Brees...am going under 10.5 the Saints..

You're insane if you think.players won't do the jobs they are getting paid millions to do.
What Brees said wasn't even that controversial but it was blown up by the stupid on social media. He apologised for it too, imo he shouldn't have.
And I do care about black lives and I'm against all forms of racism and all other forms of hate against people based on race, creed, religion or sexual preference.

adrian522 · 17-06-2020 3:50pm

They had 13 wins last season, I don't think they have gotten much worse in the off season. I don't see them losing 3 more games this season.

Tampa will be better but Atlanta and Carolina are 2 poor enough teams I think. They play the NFC North and AFC West, as well as San Francisco and Philadelphia.

I'd rate KC, SF and Green Bay as potential losses, but expect NO to go 1-2 in those games at worst. I'd expect them to go maybe 4-2 in the division games.

Then you are looking for 2 losses from Detroit, Las Vegas, LA Chargers, Denver, Chicago, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

I don't see it to be honest. I think they are one of the best teams in the NFC and I'd be more tempted by the over if the line is 10.5.

Hulk Hands · 17-06-2020 5:26pm

They're a shorter price to beat GB at home than any of the Eagles, Bears or Panthers away, even with questions over crowd. In any case, you can't do it accurately by assigning wins and losses. Only way is to price the games individually and assign a probability formula.

I haven't bothered but a quick look at Pinnacle, who's lines have been up since day one, has 5/6 under 10.5 and EVs over, so you can be fairly sure it's spot on where it is.

By the by, PP/BF's and William Hills prices are available to American customers from now on through FanDuel and Hills US, and they're more likely to accept professional money than over here. As everyone else is merely copying from them, bookies prices over here figure to be a hell of a lot more accurate going forward than in the past.

chancer007 · 18-06-2020 11:05am

yeah, saints had 13 wins last year & 2018, (11 in 2017)
thought the bookies would have them 11, 11.5 on the regular win market
going through the regular win market for all teams very few bets jump out at me, maybe the redskins might bounce under Riverboat after last years 3 wins
will do a few accas for the season..keep the interest going.
anyone spot any other bets/markets that might be interesting?

markc91 · 24-08-2020 9:24pm

Just over 2 weeks away from the opening game, any pre season bets done yet? Any sign of the racing post pull out?

The real mccoy 91 · 06-09-2020 10:05pm

Finished my ante post portfolio this evening.

Dallas
New orleans
Baltimore
All to win their divisions 4/1

Detroit to win their division 11/2
Arizona to win their division 15/2

Alex Smith comeback player of the year 11/2

Kyler murray mvp 25/1

Most rushing yards
Dalvin cook 16/1
Jordan Howard 100/1

Most receiving yards
Julio jones 9/1
Dk Metcalf 80/1

Specials

Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals & Seattle Seahawks all to make the playoffs 11/1

Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys & Seattle Seahawks all to win their division 33/1

Cant find any worst regular season record markets but Chicago and the jets would interest me in the market carolina too but I imagine they would be quite short

thomond2006 · 06-09-2020 10:17pm

Neither of my unders came in last year, let's hope for more luck this year.

Jets under 6.5 wins:
I jumped on this immediately after the Jamal Adams trade. I think at best they'll go 2-4 in the division.

Their out of division opponents, the ones in bold is where I've give them a shot at winning:

vs SF
@ IND
vs DEN
vs ARI
@ LAC
@ KC
vs LV
@ SEA
@ LAR
vs CLE

Rams under 8.5 wins:
I'm less confident on this one. It's based on what I think could be the toughest division in football this season. The 49ers will be there or thereabouts, Seattle are a solid playoff team and I think Arizona will improve considerably with Kyler Murray in his second season throwing to Hopkins. They'll do well to go 3-3 IMO. The Rams have poured a lot of money into their key players and the rest of the roster doesn't look great.

Their out of division opponents, the ones in bold is where I've give them a shot at winning:

vs DAL
@ PHI
@ BUF
vs NYG
@ WAS
vs CHI
@ MIA
@ TB
vs NE
vs NYJ

thomond2006 · 06-09-2020 10:24pm

I followed you on the first 11/1 you mentioned. Arizona and Seattle in the same division as SF makes it tough but look it's 11/1!

The real mccoy 91 · 06-09-2020 10:39pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

I followed you on the first 11/1 you mentioned. Arizona and Seattle in the same division as SF makes it tough but look it's 11/1!

I may be putting too much faith in the superbowl hangover theory but wilson should carry the hawks to at least 9 wins and I have silly high expectations for kyler this year. Definitely the toughest division in the league this year but at 11/1 why not

L.S.F · 07-09-2020 12:09pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Neither of my unders came in last year, let's hope for more luck this year.

Jets under 6.5 wins:
I jumped on this immediately after the Jamal Adams trade. I think at best they'll go 2-4 in the division.

Their out of division opponents, the ones in bold is where I've give them a shot at winning:

vs SF
@ IND
vs DEN
vs ARI
@ LAC
@ KC
vs LV
@ SEA
@ LAR
vs CLE

Rams under 8.5 wins:
I'm less confident on this one. It's based on what I think could be the toughest division in football this season. The 49ers will be there or thereabouts, Seattle are a solid playoff team and I think Arizona will improve considerably with Kyler Murray in his second season throwing to Hopkins. They'll do well to go 3-3 IMO. The Rams have poured a lot of money into their key players and the rest of the roster doesn't look great.

Their out of division opponents, the ones in bold is where I've give them a shot at winning:

vs DAL
@ PHI
@ BUF
vs NYG
@ WAS
vs CHI
@ MIA
@ TB
vs NE
vs NYJ

I'm a Jets fan and agree with you on their line, tough schedule compared to last year and even with an improved O-Line Gase is still in charge and remains clueless.

Myleftpeg · 07-09-2020 2:03pm

My opening weekend acca
Steelers -4
Colts & Eagles -6.5
Seahawks -1.5
Browns +8

The real mccoy 91 · 10-09-2020 10:22am

Pull out is in today's racing post for anyone looking

Shedite27 · 13-09-2020 10:21am

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Finished my ante post portfolio this evening.

Dallas
New orleans
Baltimore
All to win their divisions 4/1

Detroit to win their division 11/2
Arizona to win their division 15/2

Alex Smith comeback player of the year 11/2

Kyler murray mvp 25/1

Most rushing yards
Dalvin cook 16/1
Jordan Howard 100/1

Most receiving yards
Julio jones 9/1
Dk Metcalf 80/1

Specials

Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals & Seattle Seahawks all to make the playoffs 11/1

Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys & Seattle Seahawks all to win their division 33/1

Cant find any worst regular season record markets but Chicago and the jets would interest me in the market carolina too but I imagine they would be quite short

Who is letting you make accumulators of these, sky bet and paddy don’t look like they can (perhaps because week 1 has started)

The real mccoy 91 · 13-09-2020 11:17am

Shedite27 wrote: »

Who is letting you make accumulators of these, sky bet and paddy don’t look like they can (perhaps because week 1 has started)

All singles apart from the treble of division winners which you should be able to do anywhere. Found the bottom 2 under the specials section on pp #WhatOddsPaddy not sure if they are still there but there are some specials still up

L.S.F · 13-09-2020 11:17am

Small stake accas for tonight:

Lions -3, Colts -7.5, Pats -6.5, Bills -6.5, Seahawks -1.5, Saints -3.5 45/1

Lions -2.5, LV -2.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.0, Steelers -5.5

Didn't notice I had Detroit in both till now, also have a 7-fold Over/Under yardage on

John Brown 2+ TD v Jets 16/1 and same with Diggs 11/1

thomond2006 · 20-09-2020 11:52am

I've gone heavy on SF -7. SF are down Dee Ford and George Kittle but the Jets are without Crowder and Bell.

eagle eye · 20-09-2020 2:41pm

thomond2006 wrote:

I've gone heavy on SF -7. SF are down Dee Ford and George Kittle but the Jets are without Crowder and Bell.

SF didn't impress last Sunday not did the Jets.
The Cardinals are being given kudos for that but they were pretty bad too.
I'd steer a mile clear of that game.
Jordan Reed though could be a game changer in this one at tight end for the niners.

thomond2006 · 20-09-2020 6:49pm

Good shout on Reed EE. Just scored.

madalig12 · 20-09-2020 11:33pm

Fitzmagic cost me from lifting 100€ tonight

thomond2006 · 21-09-2020 10:46pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Neither of my unders came in last year, let's hope for more luck this year.

Jets under 6.5 wins:
I jumped on this immediately after the Jamal Adams trade. I think at best they'll go 2-4 in the division.

Their out of division opponents, the ones in bold is where I've give them a shot at winning:

vs SF
@ IND
vs DEN
vs ARI
@ LAC
@ KC
vs LV
@ SEA
@ LAR
vs CLE

Rams under 8.5 wins:
I'm less confident on this one. It's based on what I think could be the toughest division in football this season. The 49ers will be there or thereabouts, Seattle are a solid playoff team and I think Arizona will improve considerably with Kyler Murray in his second season throwing to Hopkins. They'll do well to go 3-3 IMO. The Rams have poured a lot of money into their key players and the rest of the roster doesn't look great.

Their out of division opponents, the ones in bold is where I've give them a shot at winning:

vs DAL
@ PHI
@ BUF
vs NYG
@ WAS
vs CHI
@ MIA
@ TB
vs NE
vs NYJ

I was able to bet the other way on the Rams at 9/10 which were the odds of the original bet. I'm shocked the o/u on them is still 8.5 wins as they still have WAS, CHI, MIA, NYJ as well as a depleted SF on their schedule. I think that bet is dead and I'll happily take a 10% loss to get out of it.

madalig12 · 22-09-2020 3:34pm

Went close on bets this week lost 2 bets with the Bills letting a TD at the end and a five teamer last night lost due to the Saints.

eagle eye · 23-09-2020 3:11am

madalig12 wrote:

Went close on bets this week lost 2 bets with the Bills letting a TD at the end and a five teamer last night lost due to the Saints.

Had a handicap treble on the Ravens, Rams and Bills myself. Had a five timer of those three with Packers and Bucs. Tough enough but had Newton for two TDs at 12/1 and Kamara the same at 4/1.

L.S.F · 25-09-2020 9:29am

Fancy the Bears (+3.0), Buccs (-5.5), Bengals (+4.5) and dare I say it, the Jets (+11.5) on the spread this week. Also have the Chargers (-6.5) in there too.

No acca wins yet early doors but hit the bar on my last two (Cowboys & Chiefs)

thomond2006 · 25-09-2020 9:39am

Spread accum: Eagles -4.5, Houston +4, Patriots -5.5, Cardinals -5.5. That pays 12.28/1.

Moneyline accum: Patriots, Chargers, Buccaneers, Cardinals. That pays 2.86/1.

L.S.F · 27-09-2020 11:22am

Anyone have any good outsider bets for 2+ TD in what should be a high scoring game?

Cowboys/Seahawks
Lions/Cards
Pack/Saints
Texans/Steelers?
Bengals/Eagles?

Have gone for TE Dalton Schultz (25/1) for Dallas, looking at Boyd (12/1) for CIN, Swift/Johnson 14 & 19 for Lions.

Blut2 · 27-09-2020 3:24pm

L.S.F wrote: »

Anyone have any good outsider bets for 2+ TD in what should be a high scoring game?

Cowboys/Seahawks
Lions/Cards
Pack/Saints
Texans/Steelers?
Bengals/Eagles?

Have gone for TE Dalton Schultz (25/1) for Dallas, looking at Boyd (12/1) for CIN, Swift/Johnson 14 & 19 for Lions.

Aaron Jones or Alvin Kamara in the Pack/Saints game both wouldn't be bad bets for 2+ TDs.

edit: Paddypower have "Aaron Jones & Alvin Kamara combine for 200+ Scrimmage Yards & combine for 3+ TDs" @ 5.5 in their "#WhatOddsPaddy - Up to 9/2" section for that game, that could also be an option.

thomond2006 · 28-09-2020 8:18am

thomond2006 wrote: »

Spread accum: Eagles -4.5, Houston +4, Patriots -5.5, Cardinals -5.5. That pays 12.28/1.

Moneyline accum: Patriots, Chargers, Buccaneers, Cardinals. That pays 2.86/1.

1/4 and 2/4. Yikes!

NFL Betting Thread 2018

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