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NFL Betting Thread 2018

  • 17-08-2018 10:47am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭L.S.F


    Any ante-post bets placed yet?

    I've the Jets to make playoffs @ 14/1 only one so far.

    Always do a few handicap accas each week along with an over/under yardage singles which I try to accumulate each game with the winnings.

    Done a random team fiver four-fold before and returned a profit the last two seasons (nothing huge)

    American Football is the only sport where I'm usually head above water each year!


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 21,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭helimachoptor


    Normally just do the over/under total points.
    Has served me well the last few years.

    may branch out into the accas though for weekly team picks


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 532 ✭✭✭ItAintMeBabe


    I'm seriously considering the Buccs for worst team at 12/1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 950 ✭✭✭nasty_crash


    Dolphins at 20/1 to be worst team could be an interesting one


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 742 ✭✭✭jester1980


    I'm seriously considering the Buccs for worst team at 12/1

    We are definitely not the worst team, most likely lose first 3 games but id say we will win 5 games minimum,

    its good odds but can definitely see someone else winning 3 or less.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 532 ✭✭✭ItAintMeBabe


    jester1980 wrote: »
    We are definitely not the worst team, most likely lose first 3 games but id say we will win 5 games minimum,

    its good odds but can definitely see someone else winning 3 or less.

    I've since changed my mind and I'm going to take a punt on the Seahawks, just a gut feeling!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Can't remember the odds but I put a small one on the sea hawks and Cowboys to win their divisions, mainly down to value. It's highly unlikely but so was the jags/rams insane odds bet I never got around to last year and I had a few spare euro in the account(both were 25/1, and when luck went down jags were still 12/1). Rams could be unreal or could implode.

    Keep an eye on rookies where vets get injured ahead of them. Some guys guaranteed to start can be on over/under insanely low yards right at the start of the year because of the calculation it is based off of. Levels out fairly quickly though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,455 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    A fully fit Andrew Luck and the Colts have a great chance of winning their division and are priced up at 9/2 or thereabouts.



    For a serious bet the Packers with what looks like a decent D are great value at 11/8 imo.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    I just don't trust the Colts whatsoever, and while I love to watch him play I find Luck has always been quite overrated and becomes moreso the longer he goes without playing (the realisation was dawning just before his injury but seems to have slipped off since). Anything is possible in the NFL but I would imagine they would need the division to struggle as a whole, and to squeak a division win with a 9-7 record or whatnot to do so. That was actually why I wanted to give the Jags a go last year, but I think they've come on so strong and the Texans with a fit Watson and Watt would be too much to have any real faith in that - the Titans also could be a good lot if they're able to get Mariota back to where he was before last year. I've just got a feeling the AFC South could be a really strong division this year, could be completely wrong there though since they've all got question marks.

    You might be right on the Packers, though I prefer longer odds for division bets because of how unpredictable the league can be. Though if the Khalil Mack trade actually happens, that would prove amazing value as they would likely see their odds slashed from it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,571 ✭✭✭✭Frisbee


    Bears over 6.5 @ 5/7
    Texans over 8.5 @ 4/6
    Brady under 4500 Passing Yards @ evens
    Lamar Jackson Offensive Rookie @ 20/1

    Iowa under 7.5 @ evens
    Wisconsin over 9.5 @ 5/6
    Oregon over 8.5 @ evens
    Michigan State to make playoffs @ 4/1 (Just like those odds)
    Washington win PAC12 @ 11/8
    Clemson Outright @ 6/1

    Jonathan Taylor Heisman @ 7/1
    Bryce Love Heisman @ 8/1
    Will Grier Heisman @ 20/1 (Again don't think it's a winner, just think the odds are out)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 828 ✭✭✭JaMarcus


    I've gone for UCF -23.5 and Northwestern +1.5 tonight.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    I think the Arizona Cardinals are a very long price for what is not the best division. Sure the Rams are good, but I don't get the 9ers hype and the Seahawks look on a downward trajectory.

    16/1 is a more than fair price.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 828 ✭✭✭JaMarcus


    I'm on Michigan State -24 tonight.

    Have also bought down on Stanford -9.5 and Wisconsin -33.5.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,455 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I like two but not the Stanford one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭gerryfed


    Bears still 100/1 on Bet365 to win the SuperBowl...

    Bleacher Report saying they're in to 40/1 in places!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭gerryfed


    gerryfed wrote: »
    Bears still 100/1 on Bet365 to win the SuperBowl...

    Bleacher Report saying they're in to 40/1 in places!

    In to 50/1 now on bet365!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,818 ✭✭✭Bateman


    I backed the Seahawks to beat the Raiders the other night thinking there is no way they are going to go 0-4 considering how good they've been in the preseason under Carroll - worrying signs there IMO and could be a bet against team in the opening weeks...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    eagle eye wrote: »

    For a serious bet the Packers with what looks like a decent D are great value at 11/8 imo.

    They're out to 13/8 with Pinnacle, who most bookies copied their prices off originally. Books over here just slow to update. There's some serious holes on their roster imo. Vikings should be 11/10. I personally think the Lions and Bears are both a tad overpriced at 8s and 9s respectively, although I won't be getting involved. Could be the most competitive division in football, if not the strongest


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,818 ✭✭✭Bateman


    Not convinced the Bears are "back", they're outsiders of 4 for a reason. Stating the obvious I guess, AFC South most competitive division


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 828 ✭✭✭JaMarcus


    Steelers to win and under 45 is available at 9/5 on Ladbrokes which I think looks like a decent bet. The weather is supposed to be attrocious there today, so the under looks good (the total is actually at 40, but this is one of those special #GetAPrice bets that someone has requested).

    Also a sneaky bet on Jaylen Samuels for first TD scorer at 28/1.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Nothing is jumping out at me at all from the early games so I stuck €7.50 on a combination of three trebles and a quadruple off the following:

    - Steelers -3.5 (@CLE)
    - Steelers/Browns over 42pts
    - Titans -1 (@MIA)
    - Jags -2.5 (@NYG)

    Maybe not the greatest idea taking three road favourites and week 1 is usually a good time to blanket cover underdogs but I reckon the Giants are going to take a while to bounce back, their run defense was bad last year which Jacksonville could take advantage of, and the Jags defense is still fecking nasty. I think the Titans could really turn some heads this year, Mularkey just wasn't a very good coach and I'm a big Mariota fan - back healthy and hopefully used right he could easily get back to 2016 form and has a better team around him than then. The Steelers love to bottle it against worse teams on the road so I'm probably setting myself up for disappointment there, just think they'll be playing angry after the Bell situation and the Browns are still coached by Hue Jackson.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,710 ✭✭✭✭Paully D


    Steelers -3.5.

    Until proven otherwise, the Browns are still the Browns.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭KingJamsie


    Weather in Cleveland is horrible, has delayed the golf. Avoiding that game

    Titans -1 evens bet of the day


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,455 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Baltimore -13.5 @ 6/4 and the Patriots -6.5 @ evs is my double for the early games.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,928 ✭✭✭Morrison J


    Bengals +3.5


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 828 ✭✭✭JaMarcus


    Morrison J wrote: »
    Bengals +3.5

    Did you buy extra points? They're around -1 everywhere else.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    JaMarcus wrote: »
    Steelers to win and under 45 is available at 9/5 on Ladbrokes which I think looks like a decent bet. The weather is supposed to be attrocious there today, so the under looks good (the total is actually at 40, but this is one of those special #GetAPrice bets that someone has requested).

    Also a sneaky bet on Jaylen Samuels for first TD scorer at 28/1.

    Good shout. Weather aside, sh*t show would not even begin to describe both offenses in that first half.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 828 ✭✭✭JaMarcus


    Billy86 wrote: »
    - Steelers/Browns over 42pts

    That must have been ridiculously frustrating for you Billy :o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    JaMarcus wrote: »
    That must have been ridiculously frustrating for you Billy :o

    Actually, it turns out it was 40.5 or 41+ so I'm not dead yet (see attachment). It was, but because of the three trebles I still pull off a small overall profit IF ...and this has been the more frustrating part... the Titans can win by 2 (which isn't looking likely, especially after that non-TD from Henry just now!). The game started six and a half hours ago and there's still 11 minutes on the clock!! :o

    But yeah, would already have the small profit otherwise and be looking for €300 if the Titans do it. On the other hand, if I had 42+ on the points I'd be sick!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭KingJamsie


    KingJamsie wrote: »
    Weather in Cleveland is horrible, has delayed the golf. Avoiding that game

    Titans -1 evens bet of the day

    Well the weather delays took nearly 4 hours, just a mad game. Will avoid Titans for next couple of weeks, seemed very inexperienced... made some bad bad calls.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭L.S.F


    Only 2 small accas today,

    Seahawks
    Bears -5.5
    Bills +16.5
    Saints +1.5
    Panthers -2.5

    Chiefs -6.5
    Fins -2.5
    Eagles -6.5
    Pack -2.5
    Rams -6.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,455 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Two games look too good to be true for me tonight. I've decided to do the double on Miami -17.5 and the Rams -7.
    I have the Rams as 12.5 point favourites and Miami at 24.5 point favs too.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,195 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    Taking Oklahoma -21.5/Tennessee + 30 today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 466 ✭✭L.S.F


    On a jets page it said vegas had them 3 point favourotes, now Denver are -1, this down to Johnson's injury?
    Also expected GB to be favourites but 1 point underdogs.

    Jags +3 looks a decent bet otherwise rest of spread looks even enough on first glance


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,195 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    I have Atlanta +3 and Rams -7. I think they are solid bets.

    I also have 49ers -3.5 doubled with Carolina -6 but that won't be for everyone!

    I also have a treble of Baltimore, LA Rams, Houston which is around 2/1.

    Overall I think people are overrating the Steelers who have done nothing this season. The Rams are a lot better than Seattle (particularly without Earl Thomas).

    I also think the Browns are being overrated a little, they haven't done anything yet really and Baltimore are a good team. Dallas have been pretty bad too and I think Houston will turn them over today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Hey fellas just stumbled across the thread how much activity do we have here? Currently only sitting on one preseason request a bet of the patriots saints and eagles over 9.5 wins dolphins redskins and ravens over 6.5 wins @14/1 obviously worried about the eagles at this stage. Didn't have a great day yesterday mainly due to Carolina not covering and the Philly game going under. Generally try and catch value early in the week


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭gerryfed


    adrian522 wrote: »
    I have Atlanta +3 and Rams -7. I think they are solid bets.

    I also have 49ers -3.5 doubled with Carolina -6 but that won't be for everyone!

    I also have a treble of Baltimore, LA Rams, Houston which is around 2/1.

    Overall I think people are overrating the Steelers who have done nothing this season. The Rams are a lot better than Seattle (particularly without Earl Thomas).

    I also think the Browns are being overrated a little, they haven't done anything yet really and Baltimore are a good team. Dallas have been pretty bad too and I think Houston will turn them over today.

    This did not age well... much like all of my bets too :/ Tough weekend of sledding indeed!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Over 57.5 in Tampa Atlanta game next week @20/23 that line be moving up all week


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,195 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    gerryfed wrote: »
    This did not age well... much like all of my bets too :/ Tough weekend of sledding indeed!

    Tell me about it. At least I had some success with college ball on Saturday to ease the pain slightly.

    Coming to the realisation that the Browns are good and the Falcons are bad! I'm still not content that the Steelers are good though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Also taking an early double on the bears -3 @ Miami. Miami don't have any home field advantage . I'm keen to get on this is miamis offensive line is a mess they can't protect qb Ryan tannehill coming up against the best pass rush in the nfl at the moment. Khalil mack is proving his worth for being the highest paid defensive player in the nfl and coming off a weeks rest I can see them stiffling Miamis offence. I expect the line to move past 3 so want to catch this early.

    Patriots-3 against Kansas city. Kansas in a bit of a false position for me their d has given up 27+ points in 4 of 5 games this year against average offences the patriots are finding their rythym and I expect a good plan to stop kansas offence coming off extra rest. I feel this is a good spot for the pats and the public money will push the line past 3 closer to game time


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    adrian522 wrote: »
    Tell me about it. At least I had some success with college ball on Saturday to ease the pain slightly.

    Coming to the realisation that the Browns are good and the Falcons are bad! I'm still not content that the Steelers are good though.

    I feel like Atlanta are nearly writing this year off they have so many injuries defensively they can't stop anything they do have the talent on offence but they are always under so much pressure.
    Agree with the steelers too they just aren't nearly as good as they were the bell saga is hanging over them like a bad smell and I have never rated tomlin as a coach there should be chances to take them on for the next few weeks anyway not sure how highly I rate cincy yet either tho to be keen on -2.5 next week


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Taken a chance on wentz anytime td tonight @8s the giants give up the most rush yards to the qb in the league and he started running a bit more last week obviously getting more comfortable after his injury. The Philly o line hasn't been great and lane Johnson missing will hurt even more. I feel their is plenty of value in the 8s


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    I feel another blowout coming in Wembley I just can't take Oakland seriously for me they wrote their season off before it started trading mack away Seattle showed they are figuring their problems out last week against the rams. Add in Oakland only arriving on Friday and having all the media obligations while Seattle got here wednesday and don't have to worry about any of that I'm getting the vibes Oakland don't want to be here. Took Seattle-14.5 @7/2 double with the vikes -10.5 really tough spot here for Rosen I can see dalvin cook having a field day their home loss to the bills should guard against complacency in this game also don't like west teams travelling east for an early game.

    Also singles on
    Seattle-19.5 @5/1
    Minnesota-23.5 @ 7/2


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,195 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    Seattle -3 for me today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,111 ✭✭✭markc91


    I feel another blowout coming in Wembley I just can't take Oakland seriously for me they wrote their season off before it started trading mack away Seattle showed they are figuring their problems out last week against the rams. Add in Oakland only arriving on Friday and having all the media obligations while Seattle got here wednesday and don't have to worry about any of that I'm getting the vibes Oakland don't want to be here. Took Seattle-14.5 @7/2 double with the vikes -10.5 really tough spot here for Rosen I can see dalvin cook having a field day their home loss to the bills should guard against complacency in this game also don't like west teams travelling east for an early game.

    Also singles on
    Seattle-19.5 @5/1
    Minnesota-23.5 @ 7/2

    looking like a great shout hope you did a double!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    I feel another blowout coming in Wembley I just can't take Oakland seriously for me they wrote their season off before it started trading mack away Seattle showed they are figuring their problems out last week against the rams. Add in Oakland only arriving on Friday and having all the media obligations while Seattle got here wednesday and don't have to worry about any of that I'm getting the vibes Oakland don't want to be here. Took Seattle-14.5 @7/2 double with the vikes -10.5 really tough spot here for Rosen I can see dalvin cook having a field day their home loss to the bills should guard against complacency in this game also don't like west teams travelling east for an early game.

    Also singles on
    Seattle-19.5 @5/1
    Minnesota-23.5 @ 7/2

    Well that's a bit sickening Minnesota blowing the cover by half a point for the double. Single on Seattle comes in but it's a little bittersweet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Over 57.5 in Tampa Atlanta game next week @20/23 that line be moving up all week

    Line didn't move during the week but the over hits anyway


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Also taking an early double on the bears -3 @ Miami. Miami don't have any home field advantage . I'm keen to get on this is miamis offensive line is a mess they can't protect qb Ryan tannehill coming up against the best pass rush in the nfl at the moment. Khalil mack is proving his worth for being the highest paid defensive player in the nfl and coming off a weeks rest I can see them stiffling Miamis offence. I expect the line to move past 3 so want to catch this early.

    Patriots-3 against Kansas city. Kansas in a bit of a false position for me their d has given up 27+ points in 4 of 5 games this year against average offences the patriots are finding their rythym and I expect a good plan to stop kansas offence coming off extra rest. I feel this is a good spot for the pats and the public money will push the line past 3 closer to game time

    Bears manage to find a way to lose they really should have covered quite easily. Spread had gone to 6.5 pre game. Going back in on the patriots the line has moved to 4 but I feel this is a great spot for the pats


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Early leans for next week 50 points looks on the high side for saints @ ravens. Could be another Wembley blowout I just don't see where the titans get enough scores to stay with the the chargers. Suprised the patriots have opened at -2.5 and not 3 at Chicago.

    One bet so far jags -4 at home against Texans. I think the jags have had 2 really bad spots the last 2 weeks granted they haven't looked good at all but the Texans 3-3 record is so false 3 wins down to pretty bonehead decisions the luck runs out this week I feel


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Early leans for next week 50 points looks on the high side for saints @ ravens. Could be another Wembley blowout I just don't see where the titans get enough scores to stay with the the chargers. Suprised the patriots have opened at -2.5 and not 3 at Chicago.

    One bet so far jags -4 at home against Texans. I think the jags have had 2 really bad spots the last 2 weeks granted they haven't looked good at all but the Texans 3-3 record is so false 3 wins down to pretty bonehead decisions the luck runs out this week I feel

    Jags really are a shadow of what they were I'm still not rating the Texans tho.

    Looking ahead I think I'll be avoiding the London game the jags have been here 5 times winning their last 3 they know exactly what to expect as opposed to philly making their first trip over going by that id favour the jags but I won't be giving them any of my money in the foreseeable future


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,195 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    Been burned by the Jags 2 weeks in a row now. I'm done with them. They've joined the Browns in my "don't bet" list.

    Yesterday I had...

    Chargers/Jags to win straight up
    Pats -1.0 (Once I heard Mack was carrying an injury I went in on that.
    Eagles/Vikings/Redskins to cover - Eagles blowing a 17 point lead meant that never really got going.

    I did an in play late on on Saints +3.5/Washington straight up. Saints were 3 points down at that point, and I didn't see how they would lose by 4 or more.
    Won that courtesy of 2 missed kicks :)

    So about a break even day yesterday.


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