NFL Betting Thread 2018

L.S.F

Any ante-post bets placed yet?

I've the Jets to make playoffs @ 14/1 only one so far.

Always do a few handicap accas each week along with an over/under yardage singles which I try to accumulate each game with the winnings.

Done a random team fiver four-fold before and returned a profit the last two seasons (nothing huge)

American Football is the only sport where I'm usually head above water each year!

helimachoptor

Normally just do the over/under total points.
Has served me well the last few years.

may branch out into the accas though for weekly team picks

ItAintMeBabe

I'm seriously considering the Buccs for worst team at 12/1

nasty_crash

Dolphins at 20/1 to be worst team could be an interesting one

jester1980

ItAintMeBabe wrote: »

I'm seriously considering the Buccs for worst team at 12/1

We are definitely not the worst team, most likely lose first 3 games but id say we will win 5 games minimum,

its good odds but can definitely see someone else winning 3 or less.

ItAintMeBabe

jester1980 wrote: »

We are definitely not the worst team, most likely lose first 3 games but id say we will win 5 games minimum,

its good odds but can definitely see someone else winning 3 or less.

I've since changed my mind and I'm going to take a punt on the Seahawks, just a gut feeling!

Billy86

Can't remember the odds but I put a small one on the sea hawks and Cowboys to win their divisions, mainly down to value. It's highly unlikely but so was the jags/rams insane odds bet I never got around to last year and I had a few spare euro in the account(both were 25/1, and when luck went down jags were still 12/1). Rams could be unreal or could implode.

Keep an eye on rookies where vets get injured ahead of them. Some guys guaranteed to start can be on over/under insanely low yards right at the start of the year because of the calculation it is based off of. Levels out fairly quickly though.

eagle eye

A fully fit Andrew Luck and the Colts have a great chance of winning their division and are priced up at 9/2 or thereabouts.



For a serious bet the Packers with what looks like a decent D are great value at 11/8 imo.

Billy86

I just don't trust the Colts whatsoever, and while I love to watch him play I find Luck has always been quite overrated and becomes moreso the longer he goes without playing (the realisation was dawning just before his injury but seems to have slipped off since). Anything is possible in the NFL but I would imagine they would need the division to struggle as a whole, and to squeak a division win with a 9-7 record or whatnot to do so. That was actually why I wanted to give the Jags a go last year, but I think they've come on so strong and the Texans with a fit Watson and Watt would be too much to have any real faith in that - the Titans also could be a good lot if they're able to get Mariota back to where he was before last year. I've just got a feeling the AFC South could be a really strong division this year, could be completely wrong there though since they've all got question marks.

You might be right on the Packers, though I prefer longer odds for division bets because of how unpredictable the league can be. Though if the Khalil Mack trade actually happens, that would prove amazing value as they would likely see their odds slashed from it.

Frisbee

Bears over 6.5 @ 5/7
Texans over 8.5 @ 4/6
Brady under 4500 Passing Yards @ evens
Lamar Jackson Offensive Rookie @ 20/1

Iowa under 7.5 @ evens
Wisconsin over 9.5 @ 5/6
Oregon over 8.5 @ evens
Michigan State to make playoffs @ 4/1 (Just like those odds)
Washington win PAC12 @ 11/8
Clemson Outright @ 6/1

Jonathan Taylor Heisman @ 7/1
Bryce Love Heisman @ 8/1
Will Grier Heisman @ 20/1 (Again don't think it's a winner, just think the odds are out)

JaMarcus

I've gone for UCF -23.5 and Northwestern +1.5 tonight.

D9Male

I think the Arizona Cardinals are a very long price for what is not the best division. Sure the Rams are good, but I don't get the 9ers hype and the Seahawks look on a downward trajectory.

16/1 is a more than fair price.

JaMarcus

I'm on Michigan State -24 tonight.

Have also bought down on Stanford -9.5 and Wisconsin -33.5.

eagle eye

I like two but not the Stanford one.

gerryfed

Bears still 100/1 on Bet365 to win the SuperBowl...

Bleacher Report saying they're in to 40/1 in places!

gerryfed

gerryfed wrote: »

Bears still 100/1 on Bet365 to win the SuperBowl...

Bleacher Report saying they're in to 40/1 in places!

In to 50/1 now on bet365!

Bateman

I backed the Seahawks to beat the Raiders the other night thinking there is no way they are going to go 0-4 considering how good they've been in the preseason under Carroll - worrying signs there IMO and could be a bet against team in the opening weeks...

Hulk Hands

eagle eye wrote: »

For a serious bet the Packers with what looks like a decent D are great value at 11/8 imo.

They're out to 13/8 with Pinnacle, who most bookies copied their prices off originally. Books over here just slow to update. There's some serious holes on their roster imo. Vikings should be 11/10. I personally think the Lions and Bears are both a tad overpriced at 8s and 9s respectively, although I won't be getting involved. Could be the most competitive division in football, if not the strongest

Bateman

Not convinced the Bears are "back", they're outsiders of 4 for a reason. Stating the obvious I guess, AFC South most competitive division

JaMarcus

Steelers to win and under 45 is available at 9/5 on Ladbrokes which I think looks like a decent bet. The weather is supposed to be attrocious there today, so the under looks good (the total is actually at 40, but this is one of those special #GetAPrice bets that someone has requested).

Also a sneaky bet on Jaylen Samuels for first TD scorer at 28/1.

Billy86

Nothing is jumping out at me at all from the early games so I stuck €7.50 on a combination of three trebles and a quadruple off the following:

- Steelers -3.5 (@CLE)
- Steelers/Browns over 42pts
- Titans -1 (@MIA)
- Jags -2.5 (@NYG)

Maybe not the greatest idea taking three road favourites and week 1 is usually a good time to blanket cover underdogs but I reckon the Giants are going to take a while to bounce back, their run defense was bad last year which Jacksonville could take advantage of, and the Jags defense is still fecking nasty. I think the Titans could really turn some heads this year, Mularkey just wasn't a very good coach and I'm a big Mariota fan - back healthy and hopefully used right he could easily get back to 2016 form and has a better team around him than then. The Steelers love to bottle it against worse teams on the road so I'm probably setting myself up for disappointment there, just think they'll be playing angry after the Bell situation and the Browns are still coached by Hue Jackson.

Paully D

Steelers -3.5.

Until proven otherwise, the Browns are still the Browns.

KingJamsie

Weather in Cleveland is horrible, has delayed the golf. Avoiding that game

Titans -1 evens bet of the day

eagle eye

Baltimore -13.5 @ 6/4 and the Patriots -6.5 @ evs is my double for the early games.

Morrison J

Bengals +3.5

JaMarcus

Morrison J wrote: »

Bengals +3.5

Did you buy extra points? They're around -1 everywhere else.

Billy86

JaMarcus wrote: »

Steelers to win and under 45 is available at 9/5 on Ladbrokes which I think looks like a decent bet. The weather is supposed to be attrocious there today, so the under looks good (the total is actually at 40, but this is one of those special #GetAPrice bets that someone has requested).

Also a sneaky bet on Jaylen Samuels for first TD scorer at 28/1.

Good shout. Weather aside, sh*t show would not even begin to describe both offenses in that first half.

JaMarcus

Billy86 wrote: »

- Steelers/Browns over 42pts

That must have been ridiculously frustrating for you Billy

Billy86

JaMarcus wrote: »

That must have been ridiculously frustrating for you Billy

Actually, it turns out it was 40.5 or 41+ so I'm not dead yet (see attachment). It was, but because of the three trebles I still pull off a small overall profit IF ...and this has been the more frustrating part... the Titans can win by 2 (which isn't looking likely, especially after that non-TD from Henry just now!). The game started six and a half hours ago and there's still 11 minutes on the clock!!

But yeah, would already have the small profit otherwise and be looking for €300 if the Titans do it. On the other hand, if I had 42+ on the points I'd be sick!

KingJamsie

KingJamsie wrote: »

Weather in Cleveland is horrible, has delayed the golf. Avoiding that game

Titans -1 evens bet of the day

Well the weather delays took nearly 4 hours, just a mad game. Will avoid Titans for next couple of weeks, seemed very inexperienced... made some bad bad calls.

L.S.F

Only 2 small accas today,

Seahawks
Bears -5.5
Bills +16.5
Saints +1.5
Panthers -2.5

Chiefs -6.5
Fins -2.5
Eagles -6.5
Pack -2.5
Rams -6.5

eagle eye

Two games look too good to be true for me tonight. I've decided to do the double on Miami -17.5 and the Rams -7.
I have the Rams as 12.5 point favourites and Miami at 24.5 point favs too.

adrian522

Taking Oklahoma -21.5/Tennessee + 30 today.

L.S.F

On a jets page it said vegas had them 3 point favourotes, now Denver are -1, this down to Johnson's injury?
Also expected GB to be favourites but 1 point underdogs.

Jags +3 looks a decent bet otherwise rest of spread looks even enough on first glance

adrian522

I have Atlanta +3 and Rams -7. I think they are solid bets.

I also have 49ers -3.5 doubled with Carolina -6 but that won't be for everyone!

I also have a treble of Baltimore, LA Rams, Houston which is around 2/1.

Overall I think people are overrating the Steelers who have done nothing this season. The Rams are a lot better than Seattle (particularly without Earl Thomas).

I also think the Browns are being overrated a little, they haven't done anything yet really and Baltimore are a good team. Dallas have been pretty bad too and I think Houston will turn them over today.

The real mccoy 91

Hey fellas just stumbled across the thread how much activity do we have here? Currently only sitting on one preseason request a bet of the patriots saints and eagles over 9.5 wins dolphins redskins and ravens over 6.5 wins @14/1 obviously worried about the eagles at this stage. Didn't have a great day yesterday mainly due to Carolina not covering and the Philly game going under. Generally try and catch value early in the week

gerryfed

adrian522 wrote: »

I have Atlanta +3 and Rams -7. I think they are solid bets.

I also have 49ers -3.5 doubled with Carolina -6 but that won't be for everyone!

I also have a treble of Baltimore, LA Rams, Houston which is around 2/1.

Overall I think people are overrating the Steelers who have done nothing this season. The Rams are a lot better than Seattle (particularly without Earl Thomas).

I also think the Browns are being overrated a little, they haven't done anything yet really and Baltimore are a good team. Dallas have been pretty bad too and I think Houston will turn them over today.

This did not age well... much like all of my bets too Tough weekend of sledding indeed!

The real mccoy 91

Over 57.5 in Tampa Atlanta game next week @20/23 that line be moving up all week

adrian522

gerryfed wrote: »

This did not age well... much like all of my bets too Tough weekend of sledding indeed!

Tell me about it. At least I had some success with college ball on Saturday to ease the pain slightly.

Coming to the realisation that the Browns are good and the Falcons are bad! I'm still not content that the Steelers are good though.

The real mccoy 91

Also taking an early double on the bears -3 @ Miami. Miami don't have any home field advantage . I'm keen to get on this is miamis offensive line is a mess they can't protect qb Ryan tannehill coming up against the best pass rush in the nfl at the moment. Khalil mack is proving his worth for being the highest paid defensive player in the nfl and coming off a weeks rest I can see them stiffling Miamis offence. I expect the line to move past 3 so want to catch this early.

Patriots-3 against Kansas city. Kansas in a bit of a false position for me their d has given up 27+ points in 4 of 5 games this year against average offences the patriots are finding their rythym and I expect a good plan to stop kansas offence coming off extra rest. I feel this is a good spot for the pats and the public money will push the line past 3 closer to game time

The real mccoy 91

adrian522 wrote: »

Tell me about it. At least I had some success with college ball on Saturday to ease the pain slightly.

Coming to the realisation that the Browns are good and the Falcons are bad! I'm still not content that the Steelers are good though.

I feel like Atlanta are nearly writing this year off they have so many injuries defensively they can't stop anything they do have the talent on offence but they are always under so much pressure.
Agree with the steelers too they just aren't nearly as good as they were the bell saga is hanging over them like a bad smell and I have never rated tomlin as a coach there should be chances to take them on for the next few weeks anyway not sure how highly I rate cincy yet either tho to be keen on -2.5 next week

The real mccoy 91

Taken a chance on wentz anytime td tonight @8s the giants give up the most rush yards to the qb in the league and he started running a bit more last week obviously getting more comfortable after his injury. The Philly o line hasn't been great and lane Johnson missing will hurt even more. I feel their is plenty of value in the 8s

The real mccoy 91

I feel another blowout coming in Wembley I just can't take Oakland seriously for me they wrote their season off before it started trading mack away Seattle showed they are figuring their problems out last week against the rams. Add in Oakland only arriving on Friday and having all the media obligations while Seattle got here wednesday and don't have to worry about any of that I'm getting the vibes Oakland don't want to be here. Took Seattle-14.5 @7/2 double with the vikes -10.5 really tough spot here for Rosen I can see dalvin cook having a field day their home loss to the bills should guard against complacency in this game also don't like west teams travelling east for an early game.

Also singles on
Seattle-19.5 @5/1
Minnesota-23.5 @ 7/2

adrian522

Seattle -3 for me today.

markc91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

I feel another blowout coming in Wembley I just can't take Oakland seriously for me they wrote their season off before it started trading mack away Seattle showed they are figuring their problems out last week against the rams. Add in Oakland only arriving on Friday and having all the media obligations while Seattle got here wednesday and don't have to worry about any of that I'm getting the vibes Oakland don't want to be here. Took Seattle-14.5 @7/2 double with the vikes -10.5 really tough spot here for Rosen I can see dalvin cook having a field day their home loss to the bills should guard against complacency in this game also don't like west teams travelling east for an early game.

Also singles on
Seattle-19.5 @5/1
Minnesota-23.5 @ 7/2

looking like a great shout hope you did a double!

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

I feel another blowout coming in Wembley I just can't take Oakland seriously for me they wrote their season off before it started trading mack away Seattle showed they are figuring their problems out last week against the rams. Add in Oakland only arriving on Friday and having all the media obligations while Seattle got here wednesday and don't have to worry about any of that I'm getting the vibes Oakland don't want to be here. Took Seattle-14.5 @7/2 double with the vikes -10.5 really tough spot here for Rosen I can see dalvin cook having a field day their home loss to the bills should guard against complacency in this game also don't like west teams travelling east for an early game.

Also singles on
Seattle-19.5 @5/1
Minnesota-23.5 @ 7/2

Well that's a bit sickening Minnesota blowing the cover by half a point for the double. Single on Seattle comes in but it's a little bittersweet

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Over 57.5 in Tampa Atlanta game next week @20/23 that line be moving up all week

Line didn't move during the week but the over hits anyway

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Also taking an early double on the bears -3 @ Miami. Miami don't have any home field advantage . I'm keen to get on this is miamis offensive line is a mess they can't protect qb Ryan tannehill coming up against the best pass rush in the nfl at the moment. Khalil mack is proving his worth for being the highest paid defensive player in the nfl and coming off a weeks rest I can see them stiffling Miamis offence. I expect the line to move past 3 so want to catch this early.

Patriots-3 against Kansas city. Kansas in a bit of a false position for me their d has given up 27+ points in 4 of 5 games this year against average offences the patriots are finding their rythym and I expect a good plan to stop kansas offence coming off extra rest. I feel this is a good spot for the pats and the public money will push the line past 3 closer to game time

Bears manage to find a way to lose they really should have covered quite easily. Spread had gone to 6.5 pre game. Going back in on the patriots the line has moved to 4 but I feel this is a great spot for the pats

The real mccoy 91

Early leans for next week 50 points looks on the high side for saints @ ravens. Could be another Wembley blowout I just don't see where the titans get enough scores to stay with the the chargers. Suprised the patriots have opened at -2.5 and not 3 at Chicago.

One bet so far jags -4 at home against Texans. I think the jags have had 2 really bad spots the last 2 weeks granted they haven't looked good at all but the Texans 3-3 record is so false 3 wins down to pretty bonehead decisions the luck runs out this week I feel

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Early leans for next week 50 points looks on the high side for saints @ ravens. Could be another Wembley blowout I just don't see where the titans get enough scores to stay with the the chargers. Suprised the patriots have opened at -2.5 and not 3 at Chicago.

One bet so far jags -4 at home against Texans. I think the jags have had 2 really bad spots the last 2 weeks granted they haven't looked good at all but the Texans 3-3 record is so false 3 wins down to pretty bonehead decisions the luck runs out this week I feel

Jags really are a shadow of what they were I'm still not rating the Texans tho.

Looking ahead I think I'll be avoiding the London game the jags have been here 5 times winning their last 3 they know exactly what to expect as opposed to philly making their first trip over going by that id favour the jags but I won't be giving them any of my money in the foreseeable future

adrian522

Been burned by the Jags 2 weeks in a row now. I'm done with them. They've joined the Browns in my "don't bet" list.

Yesterday I had...

Chargers/Jags to win straight up
Pats -1.0 (Once I heard Mack was carrying an injury I went in on that.
Eagles/Vikings/Redskins to cover - Eagles blowing a 17 point lead meant that never really got going.

I did an in play late on on Saints +3.5/Washington straight up. Saints were 3 points down at that point, and I didn't see how they would lose by 4 or more.
Won that courtesy of 2 missed kicks

So about a break even day yesterday.