Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Front of the UK daily star today predicts worse snow fall for 70 years over Christmas.

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Cold north easterlies with snow for the east

I feel also that everything is slowly falling into place for blocking and cold outbreaks, a key period will be 19 to 23 Dec with a high energy peak that may occur as blocking starts to develop. That could produce diving low pressure (NW-SE track) followed by much colder temperatures in Britain and Ireland.

The North American cold regime that was quite robust around mid-November has weakened somewhat in response to the onset of a classic west coast El Nino pattern (this sometimes brings mild Pacific air across the whole continent) but unlike say 1982-83 this El Nino is weaker and trying to lift a lot of weight with that earlier established eastern arctic blocking cold attached to Baffin Island - Greenland high pressure. So the December outlook in North America is for some resumed cold outbreaks into central and eastern regions, and the usual El Nino warmth in the west. I don't think it will overwhelm the jet stream and force a constant southwesterly, the recent spell has been that temporary response to the first major cold spells in NA. But it won't get worse, just oscillate between weaker versions of same and blocking.

If blocking became very robust before that energy peak then we could see an undercut like Jan 1 1979, probably something like that will happen at a later peak such as 3-6 Jan or 17-21 Jan. Would be surprised and seek out a safe place if there isn't at least one good wintry episode this winter and earlier than last year's injury time miracle.

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM has been showing stormy weather over the last few runs for next Friday . Track has been changing not surprisingly this far out but showing very strong winds along Atlantic coastal counties especially the W and NW , and Northern counties. Chance of being a named storm but could drift further North also. A bit of a way to go to know for sure.

Andrew00 wrote: »

You can GFS all you want, it’ll still be dirty rain and wind from the Atlantic

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Latest ECM highlights a big issue with any potential cold spells re Ireland. The block runs up against systems from the Atlantic and leaves us in the mild side. Can go either way at this stage but something worth bearing in mind.

I’d always take a retrogressive Greenland/Icelandic high over a Scandinavian high if possible, it more or less shuts out mild Atlantic air and keeps Atlantic weather systems at bay. The latter is much more hit and miss for us, like what happened in February 2012.