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US Presidential Election 2020

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Comments

  • #6002
    StringerBell
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,207 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    The mooch has been giving his thoughts and predictions on how Trump is going to be "annihilated" in November, not sure you could read too much into his stuff in general but I do think what he says about the Biden campaign needing to become more proactive now as the election begins to come into view, that so far the strategy of just let Trump shoot himself in the foot over and over while hanging back has been brilliant but they will need to do more to finish it off, can't argue with that.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



  • #6003
    everlast75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,133 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Anyone care to weigh in and explain wtf he is talking about here, because even Inghram hasn't clue...


    https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1300620979694075904?s=09


  • #6004
    hirondelle
    Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭hirondelle


    Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »
    Biden gave a perfect speech but stumbled over one sentence, Why do the Trump zealots always jump on minor things like that?

    Whats your thoughts on Trump messing up reading from the teleprompter in these clips? Or will you (like every other Trump supporter) ignore these?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE9BXkQ-SRc


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhgzcZH3SQ4

    Good jebus, the first vid. There are too many jawdroppers in there, but Tim Apple? Eastwisemen?

    Scary stuff.


  • #6005
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,646 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Anyone care to weigh in and explain wtf he is talking about here, because even Inghram hasn't clue...


    https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1300620979694075904?s=09

    Straight into the realms of conspiracy theories, he really is losing the plot, seeing plots against him everywhere.


  • #6006
    salmocab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,411 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »
    Straight into the realms of conspiracy theories, he really is losing the plot, seeing plots against him everywhere.

    I doubt he sees plots everywhere he only has to suggest there’s plots and let his followers do the rest.


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  • #6007
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    From the line he spewed out, he's saying this planeload were coming to Washington. Where did they go? Should we bother analysing and following him down the rabbit hole?


  • #6008
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,330 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Water John wrote: »
    From the line he spewed out, he's saying this planeload were coming to Washington. Where did they go? Should we bother analysing and following him down the rabbit hole?

    Doesn't say much for Homeland Security and the TSA if, as Trump claimed, a planeload of domestic terrorists can fly into the nation's capital city with impunity now does it.


  • #6009
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    I was worried that Trump would make a come back and be re elected. Now I read The Mooch is working against him:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0901/1162453-scaramucci-trump-will-be-annihilated-in-election/


    I am even more worried.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • #6010
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,233 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Trump says so much mad stuff that no one mad thing really matters, because like a decent bus service, there'll be another along in a minute. Every other politician is playing the other game - the one where you try to stay as squeaky clean as possible, and any scandal no matter how trifling becomes a focus. People call Trump a moron, but what if he's doing all of this deliberately, or at the least knows how to take a gaffe and use it to his advantage? As the press focuses on the dumb Trump stuff says, they have much less time to devote to what's actually happening in politics.

    Maybe Trump knows that by fomenting division, he increases violence on the streets, and by increasing violence, you increase news coverage, and by increasing news coverage, you divide people even more, people get scared and decide to vote for the man saying he will impose firm law & order on the streets.


  • #6011
    looksee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,796 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    He WILL impose firm law and order on the streets? What is he waiting for? Not that its an appropriate response to the current problems that are entirely due to his handling of numerous issues.

    But this is what I cannot understand, he goes on and on about the country descending into chaos, cities in flames etc and how it will escalate under Biden - but it has started and escalated under him. He is in charge while this is going on, how can it be worse under anyone else? How can this kind of rubbish not be challenged, the US press tiptoe round him instead of saying - where does Biden come into it, you are in charge at the moment and it has all flared up under your watch!


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  • #6012
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    'Maybe Trump knows that by fomenting division, he increases violence on the streets, and by increasing violence, you increase news coverage, and by increasing news coverage, you divide people even more, people get scared and decide to vote for the man saying he will impose firm law & order on the streets.' Quote
    This is transparently his objective.


  • #6013
    Retr0gamer
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 51,853 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    And the result is people and being hurt and dying all so this orange muppet can get elected again. It just goes to show how self serving and selfish he is that he is prepared to sacrifice people's lives and livelihoods for his own selfish goals.
    Untitled Image




  • #6014
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,233 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Water John wrote: »
    'Maybe Trump knows that by fomenting division, he increases violence on the streets, and by increasing violence, you increase news coverage, and by increasing news coverage, you divide people even more, people get scared and decide to vote for the man saying he will impose firm law & order on the streets.' Quote
    This is transparently his objective.

    Yeah, and it probably gives him the best shot at reelection he can muster, given his terrible handling of Coronavirus and the earlier BLM protests. He knows he can't unite the country, so he might as well put his whole lot in with one fraction of it.

    I can't say for definite that Trump is a true moron or not, but anyone voting against him needs to assume he's smart and calculating and act accordingly, and not just sit back and assume he'll talk his way right out of the job, like we all thought he would in 2016.


  • #6015
    Tell me how
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,951 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    briany wrote: »
    Maybe Trump knows that by fomenting division, he increases violence on the streets, and by increasing violence, you increase news coverage, and by increasing news coverage, you divide people even more, people get scared and decide to vote for the man saying he will impose firm law & order on the streets.

    I categorically disagree...................with the inclusion of the word maybe at the start of this statement.


  • #6016
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    As this is all going on about riots etc, I wonder if folks aren't also forgetting some of the other realities of life, like making a living.

    There's a chap on youtube named "Nerdrotic", used to run a comic book store in San Francisco, now does all sorts of science fiction and fantasy broadcasts, star trek reviews, that sort of thing. Normally completely apolitical. His wife ran a hair salon downtown.

    He broke out of character yesterday, released a politically-relevant video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WijKpSJlPV8 Relevant here, as Harris's and Pelosi's home town (I'm sure this will be brought up in campaigns) and also as an example of what people are quite likely to consider when voting. This guy would be, I think, typical of a common voter. Small business owner, doesn't get involved in politics except when it affects him directly. Not known for making a living talking about public policy or elections.

    Now, I haven't been paying quite as much attention to goings-on in SF since I left, and the figures he quoted were so stunning I had to go an independently verify them. And they are true. As of last week, over half the store-fronts in San Francisco have closed (including his wife's). The Chamber of Commerce, instead of aiding companies in starting businesses is mainly aiding them in closing. https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/08/24/more-than-half-of-san-francisco-storefronts-closed-due-to-pandemic/

    The amount of people leaving the city has rocketed over the past couple of months. https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-Francisco-exodus-is-real-and-historic-https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-Francisco-exodus-is-real-and-historic-15484785.php

    His rant is a fifteen minute video interspersed with local news articles, and worth a look, I think, for an on-the-ground perspective.


  • #6017
    Tell me how
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,951 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Manic Moran wrote: »
    As this is all going on about riots etc, I wonder if folks aren't also forgetting some of the other realities of life, like making a living.

    There's a chap on youtube named "Nerdrotic", used to run a comic book store in San Francisco, now does all sorts of science fiction and fantasy broadcasts, star trek reviews, that sort of thing. Normally completely apolitical. His wife ran a hair salon downtown.

    He broke out of character yesterday, released a politically-relevant video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WijKpSJlPV8 Relevant here, as Harris's and Pelosi's home town (I'm sure this will be brought up in campaigns) and also as an example of what people are quite likely to consider when voting. This guy would be, I think, typical of a common voter. Small business owner, doesn't get involved in politics except when it affects him directly. Not known for making a living talking about public policy or elections.

    Now, I haven't been paying quite as much attention to goings-on in SF since I left, and the figures he quoted were so stunning I had to go an independently verify them. And they are true. As of last week, over half the store-fronts in San Francisco have closed (including his wife's). The Chamber of Commerce, instead of aiding companies in starting businesses is mainly aiding them in closing. https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/08/24/more-than-half-of-san-francisco-storefronts-closed-due-to-pandemic/

    The amount of people leaving the city has rocketed over the past couple of months. https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-Francisco-exodus-is-real-and-historic-https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-Francisco-exodus-is-real-and-historic-15484785.php

    His rant is a fifteen minute video interspersed with local news articles, and worth a look, I think, for an on-the-ground perspective.

    To be fair, Covid has significantly accelerated people leaving big cities over the last couple of months you talk about and that of course is going to also impact on business biability.

    If you know you can permanently work from home as some companies have announced, why would you pay massive rent to live in a city. Particularly at a time when socialising is greatly reduced if not completely ruled out.


  • #6018
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    To be fair, Covid has significantly accelerated people leaving big cities over the last couple of months you talk about and that of course is going to also impact on business biability.

    From the article:
    Zillow economist Josh Clark tells SFGATE that the remote work shift alone has not sparked the exodus.

    "It may be tempting to credit the city of San Francisco’s inventory boom to the advent of remote work that came with the pandemic, but one only has to look at to San Jose to question that narrative

    The question of just how restrictive to be on businesses in the COVID era is absolutely one which has been in discussion over recent months. Some say Trump/Red States have been pushing to open too soon. The SF situation seems to be a good example of what happens if you over-compensate.

    And it's not just the COVID descriptions he's complaining about if you watch the video, it's anything from the lack of effective policing to the way the tax dollars are being spent on issues which shouldn't be an issue in the first place. As one of the news reports he quotes observes, SF has the most shoplifted CVS (think "Spar") in the country. "Nerdrotic" states his car has been broken into 9 times, and it has gotten to the point that the local newspaper has a car-break-in-tracker. https://projects.sfchronicle.com/trackers/sf-car-breakins/
    https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Gone-in-5-seconds-SF-neighborhood-police-12545144.php
    SF neighborhood, police powerless against car break-ins

    It's because the way the laws are written that in order to avoid prisons for minor offenses, you're not going to jail if you shoplift less than $1,000, or if you want to break and enter into a car, you won't be sent to jail for breaking into a car, nor for stealing anything from a car which has already been broken into. (So folks work in teams)

    https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-poop-patrol-employees-make-184000-a-year-2018-8
    San Francisco has a 'Poop Patrol' to deal with its feces problem, and workers make more than $184,000 a year in salary and benefits

    https://losspreventionmedia.com/welcome-to-california-a-shoplifters-paradise/
    Proposition 47 has had a direct and profound negative effect on retailers. Retailers and law enforcement officials state that since shoplifting below $950 is now a misdemeanor, it means shoplifters face no pursuit and no punishment. Sources quote some large California retailers such as Safeway, Target, Rite Aid and CVS as saying that shoplifting has increased at least 15 percent, and in some cases, doubled. LAPD reported that shoplifting reports jumped by 25 percent in the first full year of the new law.


  • #6019
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,106 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Manic Moran wrote: »
    From the article:
    Zillow economist Josh Clark tells SFGATE that the remote work shift alone has not sparked the exodus.

    "It may be tempting to credit the city of San Francisco’s inventory boom to the advent of remote work that came with the pandemic, but one only has to look at to San Jose to question that narrative

    The question of just how restrictive to be on businesses in the COVID era is absolutely one which has been in discussion over recent months. Some say Trump/Red States have been pushing to open too soon. The SF situation seems to be a good example of what happens if you over-compensate.

    And it's not just the COVID descriptions he's complaining about if you watch the video, it's anything from the lack of effective policing to the way the tax dollars are being spent on issues which shouldn't be an issue in the first place. As one of the news reports he quotes observes, SF has the most shoplifted CVS (think "Spar") in the country. "Nerdrotic" states his car has been broken into 9 times, and it has gotten to the point that the local newspaper has a car-break-in-tracker. https://projects.sfchronicle.com/trackers/sf-car-breakins/
    https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Gone-in-5-seconds-SF-neighborhood-police-12545144.php
    SF neighborhood, police powerless against car break-ins

    It's because the way the laws are written that in order to avoid prisons for minor offenses, you're not going to jail if you shoplift less than $1,000, or if you want to break and enter into a car, you won't be sent to jail for breaking into a car, nor for stealing anything from a car which has already been broken into. (So folks work in teams)

    https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-poop-patrol-employees-make-184000-a-year-2018-8
    San Francisco has a 'Poop Patrol' to deal with its feces problem, and workers make more than $184,000 a year in salary and benefits

    https://losspreventionmedia.com/welcome-to-california-a-shoplifters-paradise/
    Proposition 47 has had a direct and profound negative effect on retailers. Retailers and law enforcement officials state that since shoplifting below $950 is now a misdemeanor, it means shoplifters face no pursuit and no punishment. Sources quote some large California retailers such as Safeway, Target, Rite Aid and CVS as saying that shoplifting has increased at least 15 percent, and in some cases, doubled. LAPD reported that shoplifting reports jumped by 25 percent in the first full year of the new law.

    Have you... I don't know... Considered that the abject universe sized gap between the haves and the have nots in the US kind of has something to do with crime.. and increases of crime.

    People who don't have options turn to anything to survive and the state's has this in spades. I do find this is frequently misunderstood by people who have benefited vastly from the socially secure measures that we enjoy in Ireland, including free education and social backups .


  • #6020
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    The abject universe sized gap does not, however, exist between San Francisco and San Jose, about 40 miles down the road. There may be less of a gap between SF and Austin, or SF and Phoenix or wherever.

    It's not as if cities like Seattle, Boston or D.C. are particularly cheap either. (Housing vacancy rate)

    920x1240.jpg


  • #6021
    Retr0gamer
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 51,853 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    San Francisco though has a massive homeless problem. Pretty sure that's a massive contribution to crime
    Untitled Image




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  • #6022
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,106 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Manic Moran wrote: »
    The abject universe sized gap does not, however, exist between San Francisco and San Jose, about 40 miles down the road. There may be less of a gap between SF and Austin, or SF and Phoenix or wherever.

    It's not as if cities like Seattle, Boston or D.C. are particularly cheap either. (Housing vacancy rate)

    920x1240.jpg

    So your saying crime has nothing to do with income inequality and inequality in general then .. I'm interested in the thought process here.


  • #6023
    da_miser
    Registered Users Posts: 640 ✭✭✭da_miser


    Even the boards poll is showing a easy Trump win, its plain to see unless you are a never trumper
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058109658


  • #6024
    da_miser
    Registered Users Posts: 640 ✭✭✭da_miser


    looksee wrote: »
    He WILL impose firm law and order on the streets? What is he waiting for? Not that its an appropriate response to the current problems that are entirely due to his handling of numerous issues.

    But this is what I cannot understand, he goes on and on about the country descending into chaos, cities in flames etc and how it will escalate under Biden - but it has started and escalated under him. He is in charge while this is going on, how can it be worse under anyone else? How can this kind of rubbish not be challenged, the US press tiptoe round him instead of saying - where does Biden come into it, you are in charge at the moment and it has all flared up under your watch!

    The Dems have encouraged BLM?Antifa, these are the people rioting, looting and burning cities, these cities are Dem run , the Dems refuse to crack down on this lawless behaviour, if you want to see more of this vote Biden, if you want law and order restored vote Trump and Republican, its very simple, and this message is connecting with the public, i expect a Trump landslide in November.


  • #6025
    looksee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,796 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    da_miser wrote: »
    The Dems have encouraged BLM?Antifa, these are the people rioting, looting and burning cities, these cities are Dem run , the Dems refuse to crack down on this lawless behaviour, if you want to see more of this vote Biden, if you want law and order restored vote Trump and Republican, its very simple, and this message is connecting with the public, i expect a Trump landslide in November.

    I don't recall all this rioting during Obama's presidency? I am not saying there was none, but it didn't engulf the place. This has all happened on Trump's watch, and he has been stirring and encouraging it for four years. If he is going to be so wonderful next year why not start now?


  • #6026
    Retr0gamer
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 51,853 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    da_miser wrote: »
    Even the boards poll is showing a easy Trump win, its plain to see unless you are a never trumper
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058109658

    But that's in the current affairs/IMHO opinion forum which should be renamed to the 'im not racist but' forum. It's filled with right wing nutcases.
    Untitled Image




  • #6027
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    listermint wrote: »
    So your saying crime has nothing to do with income inequality and inequality in general then .. I'm interested in the thought process here.

    I didn't say that. But I am going to say that the relative difference in crime from location to location may be reflective of the attitudes of anything from local government policy to the criminal justice system.

    In any case, such things are fairly academic to the average person making a life somewhere except insofar as they are affected. If you watch Nerdrotic's video is there anything he is mentioning which is unreasonable from the perspective of a small business owner with a family to consider as he decides where to have his life? He may not care why his car has been broken into 9 times, but he does know that it has been broken into 9 times and that is not conducive to his enjoyment of life. He knows his wife can make a living outside of SF but cannot within the city. Larger socioeconomic issues are lower on the priority scale to immediate family concerns


  • #6028
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The Thread Title flags the interest of the OP, it's a leading question. A balanced question would be simply, 'Which candidate will win the 2020 US Presidency?


  • #6029
    Dyr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    da_miser wrote: »
    Even the boards poll is showing a easy Trump win, its plain to see unless you are a never trumper
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058109658

    Loooong way to go to November, no way is either candidate home and hosed in early September

    One thing to bear in mind is, in a present day America where expressing support for Trump can get you fired, polls may be even less reliable than normal


  • #6030
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Lord save us from the broken record on this thread of the mythological Shy Trump Voter. That's some labyrinthine theorising that inherently private, anonymous polling somehow gets loops back to employers, in turn folks for supporting Trump. 2016 was not proof of the Silent Majority, Trump was 1 in 3 chance and swung Undecideds. It wasn't an aberration to anyone except those convinced Clinton was due. Think this is the 3rd time in 2 weeks I've said this.

    First time I've seen a flippant Boards poll, its options listed as clear jokes, used as proof of a argument in the Politics forum. As if Boards is a barometer of anything, let alone the typical American voter. Be serious.


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  • #6031
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,233 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Retr0gamer wrote: »
    But that's in the current affairs/IMHO opinion forum which should be renamed to the 'im not racist but' forum. It's filled with right wing nutcases.

    I remember that time, I think this is back before IMHO was a separate forum, that Peter Casey topped the Boards.ie poll for president. Boards.ie is many things to many people but I'm not sure if it's an accurate political barometer.


  • #6032
    Mullaghteelin
    Registered Users Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Mullaghteelin


    looksee wrote: »
    I don't recall all this rioting during Obama's presidency? I am not saying there was none, but it didn't engulf the place. This has all happened on Trump's watch, and he has been stirring and encouraging it for four years. If he is going to be so wonderful next year why not start now?

    Democratic run cities like Portland and Seattle have refused to prosecute rioters and have told the police to stand down. Trump tried to send in federal law enforcement weeks ago, but the Dems equated that with Trump sending in the gestapo. CNN had a field day.
    The media and Dems have spent 4 years telling the rioters that Trump is one step away from H!tler. They are equally guilty, if not more so, of "stirring and encouraging" the tensions.


  • #6033
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Lord save us from the broken record on this thread of the mythological Shy Trump Voter. That's some labyrinthine theorising that inherently private, anonymous polling somehow gets loops back to employers, in turn folks for supporting Trump. 2016 was not proof of the Silent Majority, Trump was 1 in 3 chance and swung Undecideds. It wasn't an aberration to anyone except those convinced Clinton was due. Think this is the 3rd time in 2 weeks I've said this.

    So your arguing against the Shy Tory effect?

    What's your basis for dismissing it ? It's a factor taken into account by most pollsters to varying degrees.
    So your saying the pollsters are wrong for taking those sort of factors into account? But also that the polls are accurate?
    That's a weird argument.

    (Saying this as someone who thinks at the minute it's 60-40 too Biden winning)


  • #6034
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,646 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Mullaghteelin wrote: »
    Democratic run cities like Portland and Seattle have refused to prosecute rioters and have told the police to stand down. Trump tried to send in federal law enforcement weeks ago, but the Dems equated that with Trump sending in the gestapo. CNN had a field day.
    The media and Dems have spent 4 years telling the rioters that Trump is one step away from H!tler. They are equally guilty, if not more so, of "stirring and encouraging" the tensions.

    And Republican run cities like Fort Worth have done the same, what's your point?


  • #6035
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Mullaghteelin wrote: »
    Democratic run cities like Portland and Seattle have refused to prosecute rioters and have told the police to stand down. Trump tried to send in federal law enforcement weeks ago, but the Dems equated that with Trump sending in the gestapo. CNN had a field day.
    The media and Dems have spent 4 years telling the rioters that Trump is one step away from H!tler. They are equally guilty, if not more so, of "stirring and encouraging" the tensions.

    At this point, Trump is not one step away from a Hitler. .. He IS what Hitler was around January 1933..


  • #6036
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    So your arguing against the Shy Tory effect?

    What's your basis for dismissing it ? It's a factor taken into account by most pollsters to varying degrees.
    So your saying the pollsters are wrong for taking those sort of factors into account? But also that the polls are accurate?
    That's a weird argument.

    (Saying this as someone who thinks at the minute it's 60-40 too Biden winning)

    Various poll cos have their own set of variables which they apply. Some posters are indicating they think some polls should give weight/more weight to shy Trumpers. They give no valid argument but just the feeling in their gut.
    Has no validity.
    From all that we can observe, if the Dems can get their vote out and past the hurdles of voting then Biden/Harris should prevail.


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  • #6037
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Regarding the poll in Current Affairs, it’s on who you think will win, not who you want to win, right?

    I despise Trump but I think he’ll still win.


  • #6038
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Why does San Francisco have such a large homeless population? Do they all grow up in SF and become homeless? Or do they move there for some reason?


  • #6039
    rossie1977
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,365 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Why does San Francisco have such a large homeless population? Do they all grow up in SF and become homeless? Or do they move there for some reason?

    Many cities throw homeless in jail or move them on. California does not so you have people arriving all over the country


  • #6040
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    What does that issue have to do with Trump?

    We're not talking about over 182,000 Covid dead.


  • #6041
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    Water John wrote: »
    Various poll cos have their own set of variables which they apply. Some posters are indicating they think some polls should give weight/more weight to shy Trumpers. They give no valid argument but just the feeling in their gut.
    Has no validity.
    From all that we can observe, if the Dems can get their vote out and past the hurdles of voting then Biden/Harris should prevail.

    I understand what weighted polls are, what I don't understand is the posters dismissal of the idea that some Trump voters are going to not going to tell a pollster that they are voting for Trump, like it's a well known phenomenon taken into account to varying degrees by pollsters.

    Either there is really trump voters who aren't straight up to pollsters or pollsters are wrong as a lot of them do make this adjustment, the argument put forward is contradictory.

    Biden will win because he is ahead of in the polls but those same polls are wrong because they are often adjusted for a factor that according to the poster doesn't actually exist ???


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  • #6042
    Dyr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Why does San Francisco have such a large homeless population? Do they all grow up in SF and become homeless? Or do they move there for some reason?

    They should be housed soon enough, plenty of spare housing in SF now. :D


  • #6043
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Polling cos regularly adjust their models. If they have come across what you describe, they will incorporate that in their raw data analysis.
    If you live in Ireland, historically polls had to adjust as there was shy FF voters. Thus they did better in elections than raw polling data indicated.

    Some posters would be doing it X 2 as the polls would be already doing it, if it exists.

    Back to Covid, over 6M cases in the US.


  • #6044
    StringerBell
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,207 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    I don't think any, or many people anyway, deny that there are Trump supporters out there who lie about their preference. Jesus I would if I had any kind of self awareness of what exactly I was supporting. I think the issue comes from how significant the numbers are, how likely it is to have an impact on the outcome basically, the polls were pretty much spot on last time out. Any state that was tipped to go one way but went the other was well within the margin of error, the polling was actually superb when you consider the size of that country.

    Someone threw up a sensationalist headline about how republicans are twice as likely as democrat voters, the difference being about 5% I believe as in 5% of dem voters said they would possibly lie about their preference so it was 10/11% of republicans, there were issues with that particular poll also of course but it serves to highlight that it doesn't really seem significant.

    The silent majority is a fantasy, right up there with the invisible empire. Neither exist in reality. The election will be close, it's a very divided country, nothing has changed and nothing will change as we get closer. All things being equal Biden wins, and probably quite handily, but all things are not equal as we know so it will come down to the wire I'm sure.

    No point getting up in a heap about anything at this point, the majority of the country disapprove of the current potus, they disapprove of the direction he is taking the country, they disapprove of his handling of many topics, covid being just one. The more people can vote the better, he knows it, his supporters don't because let's be honest, if they had the capability for critical thought we wouldn't be here (in fact many of the who are of the age would almost certainly have got a great laugh off comical Ali but don't have any idea that they are the internet version of him) and the democrats know it. Get the vote out, get the votes counter, get rid of this grifter and figure out the rest once he's gone.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



  • #6045
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Water John wrote: »

    Back to Covid, over 6M cases in the US.

    This ^^^^

    And, as Trump moves ever further away from the reality of science towards ever deepening bat**** crazy conspiracy theories, he's basically washing his hands of the Covid problem. "It Is What It Is! "

    His new advisor Scott Atlas has taken on the role of feeding Trump bite size pieces of un-scientific claptrap that tickles Trump's tastebuds, the latest being messaging that amounts to "Herd Immunity is Good... Just Go For It, and Let Covid Rip... Between Herd Immunity and an October Vaccine, We'll be Grand!"

    This fits very well with the overall narrative that "We Gotta Save the Economy, Stupid! If a Couple Million People Have to Die, That's OK! So Long as They're not White Rich Folk, They Should be Glad to Prove They're as Patriotic as those Truly Patriotic White Folks who Protect 'Murica from Shadowy Forces with Their ARs and Glocks and Their Kick-Arse F-450 Trucks Every. Single. Day."


  • #6046
    spacecoyote
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,637 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    I think people also need to make a distinction between standard polling and exit polling.

    I think the shy Tory effect is a bit more evident when people are asked in public, face to face who they voted for as opposed to a phone call in the safety of their homes


  • #6047
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,158 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    I understand what weighted polls are, what I don't understand is the posters dismissal of the idea that some Trump voters are going to not going to tell a pollster that they are voting for Trump, like it's a well known phenomenon taken into account to varying degrees by pollsters.

    Either there is really trump voters who aren't straight up to pollsters or pollsters are wrong as a lot of them do make this adjustment, the argument put forward is contradictory.

    Biden will win because he is ahead of in the polls but those same polls are wrong because they are often adjusted for a factor that according to the poster doesn't actually exist ???

    There was a poll done last week - specifically asking if people were telling the truth in polling. It wasn't as explicit as that , but they were finding out if people were hiding their true opinions.

    The upshot from their data was that about 10% of Trump supporters were likely to hide their preference to pollsters and about 5% of Biden supporters would do the same.

    It didn't differentiate from those that said they would lie and say they supported the other side and those that would declare themselves "undecided" when in fact they had already made up their mind.

    Given the relatively low levels of "shy" voters and the likely mix of "full switch" vs. "Pretend Undecideds" it might tighten things slightly , but not enough to change the head-line results.


  • #6048
    droidus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    The efficacy of that study was discussed upthread, but you have to wonder how applicable it is anyway as the majority of polls are online now.


  • #6049
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    This is an Opinium Poll;
    'It found Biden leading Trump by a huge 15 points – 56% to 41% – among those who are registered to vote and indicate that they are certain to do so. In swing states Wisconsin and Florida, Biden enjoys leads of 14 points (56% v 42%) and seven points up (53% v 46%) respectively.'

    One really wonders what people are thinking, for them to say, they think Trump will win. there seems a lot of people who voted Trump in 2016 and won't do so again.


  • #6050
    StringerBell
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,207 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Anything to be said for having UN inspectors in to verify the validity of the results? As you would in any other country where it is know the leader will steal the election if he can.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



  • #6051
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,318 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    I think Trump has totally come undone
    https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1300918107976986624?s=09

    I still wouldn't put too much faith in poles, and still a long way to go before voting.
    Let's be honest Trump will do anything possible to hold onto power


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