US Presidential Election 2020

Quin_Dub · 31-08-2020 03:20PM

spacecoyote wrote: »

Interesting article in 538 about the difference in voting method intentions, with something like 66% of Trump voters saying they would likely vote in person vs only 47% of Biden voters.

Opens up the possibility of Trump leading on the night and trying to call the election with a sizeable portion of Bidens votes not being declared for a couple of days due to postal voting.

Has all the hallmarks of serious chaos

That is absolutely what will happen - If Trump is leading in any swing state in the initial "on the night" vote count he will absolutely declare himself a winner and that any change in that result could only be as a result of voter fraud etc. etc.

If the State is Republican controlled ,(Florida I'm looking at you) the Governor will also start the silly buggers.

They will be aided and abetted in all of this by Fox News.

droidus · 31-08-2020 03:28PM

Yeah, thats a real danger, although apparently Florida is actually pretty good at counting mail in ballots quickly, and some version of a result is expected on the night.

If it drags on then yes, its gonna be a total s**tshow.

The Nal · 31-08-2020 03:45PM

spacecoyote wrote: »

Interesting article in 538 about the difference in voting method intentions, with something like 66% of Trump voters saying they would likely vote in person vs only 47% of Biden voters.

Opens up the possibility of Trump leading on the night and trying to call the election with a sizeable portion of Bidens votes not being declared for a couple of days due to postal voting.

Has all the hallmarks of serious chaos

Absolutely. Trump will have lawsuits for every eventually ready to roll out.

Carfacemandog · 31-08-2020 03:49PM

The Nal wrote: »

Absolutely. Trump will have lawsuits for every eventually ready to roll out.

The problem there is, as per the Constitution that would still make Nancy Pelosi* the interim President come January 20th or whenever the date of handover is. That is where things could get really ugly, as Republicans don't exactly have a history of respecting the Constitution when it does not suit them.

*Or whomever is the leader of the largest party in the House of Representatives, though this appears quite nailed on to be Pelosi.

Carfacemandog · 31-08-2020 04:29PM

That will happen when you allow them to get slaughtered on the order of Russia and do absolutely nothing about it, not even say a word, while also saying you trust Russia over your own intelligence services.

StringerBell · 31-08-2020 04:40PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Speaking of polls it seems Trump lost the military vote

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

That's interesting alright. Something to dig into for sure.

Quin_Dub · 31-08-2020 04:47PM

Carfacemandog wrote: »

The problem there is, as per the Constitution that would still make Nancy Pelosi* the interim President come January 20th or whenever the date of handover is. That is where things could get really ugly, as Republicans don't exactly have a history of respecting the Constitution when it does not suit them.

*Or whomever is the leader of the largest party in the House of Representatives, though this appears quite nailed on to be Pelosi.

Not quite as clean as that.

If neither candidate has enough Electors to reach 270 - Which could happen if multiple states are being challenged and if the governors refuse to send forward delegates to the Electoral college vote (around 10 of December I think).

It then becomes a Congressional vote - The House elects the President and the Senate elects the VP.

BUT - It's not a House/Senate vote as such.

For the House , it's a State by State vote - So which every party has the most house seats in a given State get that States vote.

So the dozens of Democrat House seats get 1 vote , just the same a the 1 of 2 GOP houses seats in places like Montana etc.

The upshot is - The GOP have the lead on a State by State level 26-24 and of course they lead in the Senate.

If it comes to this , the vote will be in December and based off the current seats , not the result of the November elections.

so Trump would get re-elected if the EC is contested and can't go forward in the normal way.

The Pelosi scenario only really applies to a scenario where the election doesn't happen.

AbusesToilets · 31-08-2020 04:59PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not quite as clean as that.

If neither candidate has enough Electors to reach 270 - Which could happen if multiple states are being challenged and if the governors refuse to send forward delegates to the Electoral college vote (around 10 of December I think).

It then becomes a Congressional vote - The House elects the President and the Senate elects the VP.

BUT - It's not a House/Senate vote as such.

For the House , it's a State by State vote - So which every party has the most house seats in a given State get that States vote.

So the dozens of Democrat House seats get 1 vote , just the same a the 1 of 2 GOP houses seats in places like Montana etc.

The upshot is - The GOP have the lead on a State by State level 26-24 and of course they lead in the Senate.

If it comes to this , the vote will be in December and based off the current seats , not the result of the November elections.

so Trump would get re-elected if the EC is contested and can't go forward in the normal way.

The Pelosi scenario only really applies to a scenario where the election doesn't happen.

And here I was thinking Veep was satirical

Retr0gamer · 31-08-2020 05:07PM

Carfacemandog wrote: »

That will happen when you allow them to get slaughtered on the order of Russia and do absolutely nothing about it, not even say a word, while also saying you trust Russia over your own intelligence services.

Or cowardly pull them out of syria to let the people they are protecting be massacred.

briany · 31-08-2020 08:39PM

Independent journalist Tim Pool now is now saying that, according to the latest data, Trump has pushed ahead of Biden in the polls. I don't really see this being beared out in any official poll, but what Pool appears to be basing it on is comparing things to the leads Hillary was supposed to have held in various states this time 4 years ago as well as talking about 'shy' Trump voters.

Trump has said "The only way we're gonna lose this election is if the election is rigged. Remember that." That statement, combined with the idea that Trump is ahead in metrics the mainstream media doesn't want you to know about, means there will be no convincing the Trump supporter that their man lost fairly.

StringerBell · 31-08-2020 08:50PM

That last part is fine though, and largely irrelevant after the initial outburst of protest/violence/whatever they do.

You can't for example convince me that Al gore lost the election fairly either, or many many Americans yet life went on.

Long way to go yet. It will close right down to the count and probably beyond. Just gotta keep the fingers crossed trump doesn't manage to grift himself into a second term. Grifting being one of his only discernable skills will mean he is always in with a shot.

droidus · 31-08-2020 08:59PM

briany wrote: »

Independent journalist Tim Pool now is now saying that, according to the latest data, Trump has pushed ahead of Biden in the polls. I don't really see this being beared out in any official poll, but what Pool appears to be basing it on is comparing things to the leads Hillary was supposed to have held in various states this time 4 years ago as well as talking about 'shy' Trump voters.

Trump has said "The only way we're gonna lose this election is if the election is rigged. Remember that." That statement, combined with the idea that Trump is ahead in metrics the mainstream media doesn't want you to know about, means there will be no convincing the Trump supporter that their man lost fairly.

Yeah, this is just insane. Biden is ahead in nearly all swing states. Even the RCP averages show him up, and they are seriously problematic, because they don't adjust for house effects (i.e. Rasmussen).

There's a strong media narrative here towards tightening that isn't evident in the polling. The news doesn't sell itself.

briany · 31-08-2020 09:01PM

StringerBell wrote: »

That last part is fine though, and largely irrelevant after the initial outburst of protest/violence/whatever they do.

You can't for example convince me that Al gore lost the election fairly either, or many many Americans yet life went on.

Long way to go yet. It will close right down to the count and probably beyond. Just gotta keep the fingers crossed trump doesn't manage to grift himself into a second term. Grifting being one of his only discernable skills will mean he is always in with a shot.

Life went on, but the political atmosphere in America was nowhere near as charged as it is now.

If (some) Trump supporters get violent in the wake of a Biden win, will the likes of Tucker Carlson condemn it, I wonder? Hmmm....

Itssoeasy · 31-08-2020 10:03PM

droidus wrote: »

Yeah, this is just insane. Biden is ahead in nearly all swing states. Even the RCP averages show him up, and they are seriously problematic, because they don't adjust for house effects (i.e. Rasmussen).

There's a strong media narrative here towards tightening that isn't evident in the polling. The news doesn't sell itself.

Could that be a hang over from 2016 when they over egged Hilary Clinton’s lead and are wary of it happening again ?

StringerBell · 31-08-2020 10:18PM

briany wrote: »

Life went on, but the political atmosphere in America was nowhere near as charged as it is now.

If (some) Trump supporters get violent in the wake of a Biden win, will the likes of Tucker Carlson condemn it, I wonder? Hmmm....

I understand what your saying, but I feel your placing too much stock in what the likes of tucker Carlson et al. say or don't say. They have been showing hate and division based on lies and fear mongering for decades at this point.

If some trump supporters get violent they will do damage, of course they will but then they will be killed/arrested. Unless you think there's a very real danger of a civil war of some type? Ultimately the military if necessary will put down armed militia or other Trump supporters who fail to accept it and attempt any insurrection type violence.

I am not fully convinced there will be much of that beyond a few flare ups and lots of whining. The political atmosphere is toxic and the likes of fox of course don't help but push comes to shove I think you will see a relatively peaceful transition of power as it suits the GOP better in the long run if nothing else, they have 4 years to recover, regroup and look to take back power. That or the country torn apart?

Nobody serious pays any attention to Carlson, to Hannity, to any of the chicken hawks on fox opinion shows. They exploit people who have been conditioned for generations and right wing terrorism is obviously still the greatest threat to America but barring something incredibly cohesive (which I don't think they have the capability for) any violence will be contained and dealt with as it would be in any other country.

You will have GOP leaders calling for calm as well as Dems. Maybe I'm wrong, but I fail to see how it is in any of their collective interests to further an extremist or violent cause once their boy is done and dusted. His time is over then.

Edit: basically ignore the rest of that if you want and just extrapolate what you think will happen when the Trump supporters who do decide to rise up and retake their country from the Communists or whatever it will be? What's the end result?

droidus · 31-08-2020 10:33PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Could that be a hang over from 2016 when they over egged Hilary Clinton’s lead and are wary of it happening again ?

Partly, but its also just the way the media acts around elections. Its all about the drama of the horse race and very little about policies or anything substantive. The same thing happens here to a lesser extent. Biden cruising to a probable win in one of the most stable presidential campaigns in history just isnt exciting.

Water John · 31-08-2020 10:36PM

Good to see Biden coming out swinging and taking on Trump directly. Naming him and making him own his failures, in office as POTUS.
Trump owns what's wrong in the US, at this time.

Professor Moriarty · 31-08-2020 10:37PM

Water John wrote: »

Good to see Biden coming out swinging and taking on Trump directly. Naming him and making him own his failures, in office as POTUS.
Trump owns what's wrong in the US, at this time.

Elect Trump because he's the only one who can fix the mess he's made.

Water John · 31-08-2020 10:41PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Elect Trump because he's the only one who can fix the mess he's made.

That's the essence of the GOP message.

briany · 31-08-2020 11:05PM

StringerBell wrote: »

I understand what your saying, but I feel your placing too much stock in what the likes of tucker Carlson et al. say or don't say. They have been showing hate and division based on lies and fear mongering for decades at this point.

If some trump supporters get violent they will do damage, of course they will but then they will be killed/arrested. Unless you think there's a very real danger of a civil war of some type? Ultimately the military if necessary will put down armed militia or other Trump supporters who fail to accept it and attempt any insurrection type violence.

I am not fully convinced there will be much of that beyond a few flare ups and lots of whining. The political atmosphere is toxic and the likes of fox of course don't help but push comes to shove I think you will see a relatively peaceful transition of power as it suits the GOP better in the long run if nothing else, they have 4 years to recover, regroup and look to take back power. That or the country torn apart?

Nobody serious pays any attention to Carlson, to Hannity, to any of the chicken hawks on fox opinion shows. They exploit people who have been conditioned for generations and right wing terrorism is obviously still the greatest threat to America but barring something incredibly cohesive (which I don't think they have the capability for) any violence will be contained and dealt with as it would be in any other country.

You will have GOP leaders calling for calm as well as Dems. Maybe I'm wrong, but I fail to see how it is in any of their collective interests to further an extremist or violent cause once their boy is done and dusted. His time is over then.

Edit: basically ignore the rest of that if you want and just extrapolate what you think will happen when the Trump supporters who do decide to rise up and retake their country from the Communists or whatever it will be? What's the end result?

My basic concern is that where once you would have had a right-wing gun nut believing America was about to go Communist and take his guns and thus get in a shootout with police after intimidating local townspeople by walking down the street with a loaded rifle, (almost) everyone would recognise him as a nut. Now, this nut would have a whole movement behind him, nationally organised, which has also gained a mainstream foothold, to encourage him and sympathise with his cause. That drastically reframes any violence involving Trump supporters in the wake of Biden getting elected. They have a support network of not only people like themselves, but certain news networks, as well as Trump himself. No doubt the Twitter storm in the wake of violent incidents will contain a lot of how the Trump supporter(s) was/were harshly treated in Biden's fascist America and fomenting more anger.

The de-Trumpisation of the GoP voter base is going to take a while.

namloc1980 · 31-08-2020 11:29PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Elect Trump because he's the only one who can fix the mess he's made.

Essentially at this point the Trump campaign is almost to the point that Trump is running as if someone else is the President. They've basically installed Biden as the proxy for Trump in the White House. The rhetoric like "you won't be safe in Joe Biden's America", "Biden supports the violence" "Let's make America great again.....again" etc. It's very transparent when you think about it but millions will and are falling for it.

is_that_so · 01-09-2020 08:12AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Elect Trump because he's the only one who can fix the mess he's made.

He can't and won't and he doesn't care either. It's really all about him at this stage, obsessively so. He'd likely be a completely lame duck president from the off, spitting out executive orders and petulantly refusing to sign bills from Congress.

Water John · 01-09-2020 10:06AM

The next four years under a re-elected Trump would be totally corrupt. Since those now in key positions, Meadows, Barr etc fawn over him, as you say, using EOs unhindered it would become a corrupt family dynasty in the WH.

da_miser · 01-09-2020 10:32AM

Biden now 10/11 and Trump Evens.
Trump just has to step back, give the Dems enough rope to hang themselves, the Dems are doubling down on their BLM/Antifa support, hard working tax paying people see the looting, rioting and burning of cities under Dem control, they are going to vote Trump in a big way, he is now the law and order candidate by default.
If the debates happen , it will be must see TV, a Dem car crash, so i cant see it happening, Trump will eat Biden alive in the debates, i believe Biden will "catch" Covid19 and have to pull out of the debates, no way they let him be seen in public debating and having to think on his feet, he is a disaster every time he goes of script, he is even messing up reading of a teleprompter.

Timberrrrrrrr · 01-09-2020 10:36AM

da_miser wrote: »

Biden now 10/11 and Trump Evens.
Trump just has to step back, give the Dems enough rope to hang themselves, the Dems are doubling down on their BLM/Antifa support, hard working tax paying people see the looting, rioting and burning of cities under Dem control, they are going to vote Trump in a big way, he is now the law and order candidate by default.
If the debates happen , it will be must see TV, a Dem car crash, so i cant see it happening, Trump will eat Biden alive in the debates, i believe Biden will "catch" Covid19 and have to pull out of the debates, no way they let him be seen in public debating and having to think on his feet, he is a disaster every time he goes of script, he is even messing up reading of a teleprompter.

Biden gave a perfect speech but stumbled over one sentence, Why do the Trump zealots always jump on minor things like that?

Whats your thoughts on Trump messing up reading from the teleprompter in these clips? Or will you (like every other Trump supporter) ignore these?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE9BXkQ-SRc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhgzcZH3SQ4

briany · 01-09-2020 10:37AM

Water John wrote: »

The next four years under a re-elected Trump would be totally corrupt. Since those now in key positions, Meadows, Barr etc fawn over him, as you say, using EOs unhindered it would become a corrupt family dynasty in the WH.

He'll have to watch the corruption level if he wants that third term. :pac:

pixelburp · 01-09-2020 10:39AM

"Hard working tax paying people" are probably more likely dismayed by Trump's stripping of the ACA and his lopsided Tax Bill TBH - or indeed what the government will do to help them post CoVid - as they are incensed by ANTIFA et al. In fact no more than Brexit factored little in our own recent National Elections, I'd be curious just how much BLM factors into US voters' intentions.

everlast75 · 01-09-2020 11:07AM

da_miser wrote: »

he is a disaster every time he goes of script, he is even messing up reading of a teleprompter.

Covfefe.
Hamburder.
*Looks into a solar eclipse*
Person. Woman. Man. Camera. Tv.

Need I go on?

Timberrrrrrrr · 01-09-2020 11:10AM

everlast75 wrote: »

Covfefe.
Hamburder.
*Looks into a solar eclipse*
Person. Woman. Man. Camera. Tv.

Need I go on?

I've posted a couple of vids asking him and other Trump supporters what their thoughts are on Trumps teleprompter mistakes, for some reason they seem to have either missed it or ignored it.

StringerBell · 01-09-2020 11:26AM

The mooch has been giving his thoughts and predictions on how Trump is going to be "annihilated" in November, not sure you could read too much into his stuff in general but I do think what he says about the Biden campaign needing to become more proactive now as the election begins to come into view, that so far the strategy of just let Trump shoot himself in the foot over and over while hanging back has been brilliant but they will need to do more to finish it off, can't argue with that.

US Presidential Election 2020

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