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Can the book be beaten....Discussion

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24

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    #32
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    del roy wrote: »
    MH
    I CAN STATE HERE THAT JERRY CAN GET €500 ON THE NIGHT BEFORE, I have witnessed how he does it, many people €10s and €20s some of their accounts only last a month.


    As I have already said, I had lots of accounts closed just betting a score a point so if people are not using "other peoples accounts" and still getting on, well thats fantasy.
    Sorry but €500 on overnights is stone cold fantasy. Why not just wait till the morning and get more on without the hassle and without marking the bookies card for them, especially if you're betting "info" and putting it up on a forum - thereby ruining the price at earliest possible time for connections of horse etc.

    Even if you do have the 30 or so accounts that would be needed to get 500 on overnight prices those accounts are getting marked/linked by the firms as soon as they all bet the same selection around the same time and will be closed even sooner than would be case anyway.

    Nobody who bets seriously bets overnight prices.


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    #33
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    Del, you seem to have a couple of those thread profits at your fingertips, have you the full summary of all ( not detail, just where they ended profit or loss)

    That first thread was a great laugh,

    it sure was, remember STREAMS OF WHISKEY WINNING AT 18/1.

    His form figures were something like 07fppu.

    Was in the pub when it won, must have collected about 10k from the bookies everyone in the pub on it.


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    #34
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Sorry but €500 on overnights is stone cold fantasy. Why not just wait till the morning and get more on without the hassle and without marking the bookies card for them, especially if you're betting "info" and putting it up on a forum - thereby ruining the price at earliest possible time for connections of horse etc. Nobody who bets seriously bets overnight prices.


    unfortunately Jerry was two things.....SERIOUS and.........................greedy.






    sorry about the last remark on other post I deleted it.


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    #35
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    If Jerry doesn't have the total Profit/Loss/ROI for all bets since started posting on here then that's a bit of a red flag. As he either has them and doesn't want to share as presumably don't look great or he doesn't keep the records.


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    #36
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    Jerry could not have been fairer to this board.

    Paid for all the sites and did the foot work, then put the bets up here as soon as he got on himself, he maybe somethings but to start doubting his reasons for giving loads of winners to this board is plainly out of order.

    if he wants to keep how much he won/lost thats his business, not many will come on here and say they are betting €100 a point even when he was losing and people were slagging him he kept at it and reduced his losing tally from -128 to -41.


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    #37
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    del roy wrote: »
    Jerry could not have been fairer to this board.

    Paid for all the sites and did the foot work, then put the bets up here as soon as he got on himself, he maybe somethings but to start doubting his reasons for giving loads of winners to this board is plainly out of order.

    if he wants to keep how much he won/lost thats his business, not many will come on here and say they are betting €100 a point even when he was losing and people were slagging him he kept at it and reduced his losing tally from -128 to -41.
    So we can't answer the question "can book be beaten long term" because Jerry won't show us long term figures?


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    #38
    Fanny Wank
    Registered Users Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭Fanny Wank


    Opinion8 wrote: »
    I have been backing horses for years and know for a fact the book can't be beaten . I have had days with 4 winners and 2 weeks without a winner. You only know as much as the next man and without luck he's winging it. As for bookies closing your accounts is like the barman throwing you out when you can't walk anymore anyway. I don't believe you can win that often .

    Yet plenty of people (not a large percentage of punters granted) make a living betting


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    #39
    DubInTheWest
    Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭DubInTheWest


    del roy wrote: »
    but to start doubting his reasons for giving loads of winners to this board is plainly out of order.

    The winners were sporadic and by the law of averages they were bound to happen when they did win. The profit/loss would be up and down, and then down all the way til the arse it out of your trousers. I can hardly believe my eyes when after 20 losers there is a winner and people on here congratulate and say they backed it. They need their heads tested.

    I think the real reason behind the original thread was give winners out and if they are successful, charge them for selections in the future. If I remember correctly there was a thread closed down over that when jerry was going through his 'purple patch'.

    Can the book be beaten?! - Yes I'm sure it can, but not by following jerry, that's 100% banker material.


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    #40
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    So we can't answer the question "can book be beaten long term" because Jerry won't show us long term figures?

    I can tell you two things.

    1.there are about 500 bets on this boards site where the bets were put up mostly the night before,if someone wants to go back thru them and tell us what the roi was or how much profit he made, work away.
    Jerry never ever said he would put up his figures up on here.

    2. If he did come on and says I am up 20,000 would you then want to see his bookmaker statements.

    I’m sorry my but from a guy who just a few minutes ago stated

    I won’t say how much I put on but it’s enough to get by.

    Look until I can prove how much he is up or down whoever is interested in what his p/l is for whatever reason can go thru all his bets he posted on here.
    It can’t be that hard.


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    #41
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    DubInTheWest wrote: »
    The winners were sporadic and by the law of averages they were bound to happen when they did win. The profit/loss would be up and down, and then down all the way til the arse it out of your trousers. I can hardly believe my eyes when after 20 losers there is a winner and people on here congratulate and say they backed it. They need their heads tested.

    I think the real reason behind the original thread was give winners out and if they are successful, charge them for selections in the future. If I remember correctly there was a thread closed down over that when jerry was going through his 'purple patch'.

    Can the book be beaten?! - Yes I'm sure it can, but not by following jerry, that's 100% banker material.


    Tell you what West’s

    You put up 300 to 400 selections most of them the night before and we will all see how much you are ahead.
    Let’s see how many are bound to win.

    Another clueless idiot


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    #42
    Imhof Tank
    Registered Users Posts: 2,122 ✭✭✭Imhof Tank


    del roy wrote: »
    Tell you what West’s

    You put up 300 to 400 selections most of them the night before and we will all see how much you are ahead.
    Let’s see how many are bound to win.

    Another clueless idiot

    Who are the "other" clueless idiots Del?


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    #43
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    You are a smart man, read thru the thread and pick them out youself.


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    #44
    Imhof Tank
    Registered Users Posts: 2,122 ✭✭✭Imhof Tank


    del roy wrote: »
    Hi

    the thread was called Can the book be beaten and it has to be discussed lets TRY keep the insults to the minimum.

    [/SIZE][/FONT][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

    Bad form Derek.

    Disappointing.


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    #45
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    DubInTheWest wrote: »
    The winners were sporadic and by the law of averages they were bound to happen when they did win. The profit/loss would be up and down, and then down all the way til the arse it out of your trousers. I can hardly believe my eyes when after 20 losers there is a winner and people on here congratulate and say they backed it. They need their heads tested.

    I think the real reason behind the original thread was give winners out and if they are successful, charge them for selections in the future. If I remember correctly there was a thread closed down over that when jerry was going through his 'purple patch'.

    Can the book be beaten?! - Yes I'm sure it can, but not by following jerry, that's 100% banker material.

    Three insults above, if he can give it, I am sure he can take it.


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    #46
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    I was just asking what the total was for the bets put on here, as I think an overall total would help answer the question "can the book be beaten long term", but it seems this information cannot/will not be provided.

    I just find it strange that the assertion that Jerry turns a profit putning is based on a very good run (and it was a very good run) around 5 years ago. Whenever anyone questions things we are going back to this run from a long time ago, I mean it was a very impressive run but it was not "long term" and it was a long time ago now and a lot has happened since then.

    A few things don't seem to add up to me but I will leave it at that anyway.

    Not sure why this thread was made, as anything other than compliments seems to get an indignant response.


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    #47
    The Enbalmer
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭The Enbalmer


    Sorry to sound like a complete newb but who is jerry?


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    #48
    PhuckHugh2
    Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭PhuckHugh2


    Im with MH there is no way anyone serious about betting is blasting accounts by taking overnight prices.


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    #49
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Its defiantly possible to beat the bookies, but i hazard a guess that its only to a max of maybe €10 a point.


    I have only 1 restricted account and thats Betfair Sportsbook and maybe boyles (that i dont use).


    They dont seem to rate big price winners every so often, certainly with small bets.


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    #50
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    I was just asking what the total was for the bets put on here, as I think an overall total would help answer the question "can the book be beaten long term", but it seems this information cannot/will not be provided.

    I just find it strange that the assertion that Jerry turns a profit putning is based on a very good run (and it was a very good run) around 5 years ago. Whenever anyone questions things we are going back to this run from a long time ago, I mean it was a very impressive run but it was not "long term" and it was a long time ago now and a lot has happened since then.

    A few things don't seem to add up to me but I will leave it at that anyway.

    Not sure why this thread was made, as anything other than compliments seems to get an indignant response.


    I really can't make it any clearer without being rude


    So, can the book be beaten?


    Now after 35 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO.

    However it is a great hobby but costly.



    After 5 years on and off following Jerry I have given my answer because I started this thread.


    However again I will have to bring people back to my very first sentence of my very first post on this subject



    Here it is



    After 30 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO. The reason for my answer would be the lack of disipline most if not all punters suffer.
    I would say punters need a few things that they MUST have on their side to be given even the slightest chance


    five years later...Can the book be beaten......NO

    I cannot be any clearer.




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    #51
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Its defiantly possible to beat the bookies, but i hazard a guess that its only to a max of maybe €10 a point.


    I have only 1 restricted account and thats Betfair Sportsbook and maybe boyles (that i dont use).


    They dont seem to rate big price winners every so often, certainly with small bets.




    I couldn't agree more Aidan, anymore than a tenner a point and then in Jerrys case the amount of hours he puts in, that amount would be too little.


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    #52
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,142 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    So anyway what about a horse Del, I'm a small bit flush today and fancy a flutter.


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    #53
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    Dan, as you are one of the long time sufferers
    Courtesy of Jerry, from one of his sites.

    3.40 Hexham : Glinger Flame @ 3/1 BOG

    ...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft/Good to Soft ground worth £6758 to the winner...

    Why?...

    A lightly raced 7 yr gelding making a handicap debut is the one carrying my money today (hope the added weight doesn't stop him!). He's had just four runs to date (2 of which were in bumpers), finishing in the frame (3323) each time and his two efforts over hurdles have seen him only beaten by a neck and then a length, so it wouldn't take much improvement to get him up for a first win.

    And with no disrespect intended to Ryan Day, I feel the booking of Brian Hughes in the saddle might just make that little bit of difference needed, especially as he's got an 18.9% strike rate (67 from 355) on this track since 2011, including winning 14 of 64 (21.9% SR) since the start of 2018.

    Trainer Nicky Richards trains this horse just 45 miles away from this venue and it's surprising that he's only sent 59 runners here since 2012. What isn't surprising, however, is that he does well with the ones he does send over, a sign of picking and choosing the right races, perhaps?

    Of those 59 runners sent on the short hour or so journey, 17 (28.8% SR) have won, generating level stakes profits of 12.93pts at an ROI of 21.9%, so it's not a lack of success keeping him away, surely.

    Anyway, it's not for me to guess why he's not a regular here, but I can tell you that of those 59 visitors...

    those sent off at 7/1 and shorter are 16/41 (39%) for 21.3pts (+51.9%)
    hurdlers are 10/36 (27.8%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%)
    handicappers are 9/30 (30%) for 14.5pts (+48.2%)
    6-8 yr olds are 13/29 (44.8%) for 28.6pts (+98.5%)
    Class 4 runners are 8/29 (27.6%) for 5.3pts (+18.2%)
    over trips of 2m4f - 3m : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.6pts (+107.1%)
    those racing on Soft/Good to Soft ground are 8/18 (44.4%) for 12.9pts (+71.4%)
    those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 8/16 (50%) for 14.1pts (+88%)
    and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.1%)

    And with this horse making his handicap bow, it's also worth noting that since 2012, Nicky's handicap debutants are 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 15.7pts (+23.9% ROI), including of note today...

    Oct-April = 13/56 (23.2%) for 21.2pts (+37.9%)
    hrds = 10/56 (17.9%) for 7.1pts (+12.6%)
    males = 14/53 (26.4%) for 28.7pts (+54.2%)
    Sub-5/1 = 12/35 (34.3%) for 22.7pts (+65%)
    1-6 months off track = 9/35 (25.7%) for 22.1pts (+63%)
    Soft/Gd to Soft = 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.1pts (+65.7%)
    Class 4 = 9/26 (34.6%) for 23.7pts (+91.2%)
    at 2m4f = 5/11 (45.5%) for 24.1pts (+218.9%)
    and 7 yr olds = 4/10 (40%) for 17.26pts (+172.6%)

    ...from which sub-5/1 male hurdlers running in November to April within 4 months of their last outing are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 21.5pts (+165.6% ROI) profit, including...

    at Class 4 :5/8 (62.5%) for 16.03pts (+200.4%)
    on Soft/Gd to Soft : 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.65pts (+227.4%)
    whilst those racing at Class 4 on Soft/Gd to Soft are 2 from 2 (100%) for 7.15pts (+357.5%)

    ...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame @ 3/1 BOG which was available from at least 8 firms at 5.50pm on Monday,.


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    #54
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    Dan I will bang up what the trainer thinks about it at 11.00 this morning


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    #55
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,142 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    del roy wrote: »
    Dan I will bang up what the trainer thinks about it at 11.00 this morning

    No need Del, I'm on it already. Sun is shining and I have a feeling in my waters so what can go wrong!


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    #56
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    del roy wrote: »
    I really can't make it any clearer without being rude


    So, can the book be beaten?


    Now after 35 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO.

    However it is a great hobby but costly.



    After 5 years on and off following Jerry I have given my answer because I started this thread.


    However again I will have to bring people back to my very first sentence of my very first post on this subject



    Here it is



    After 30 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO. The reason for my answer would be the lack of disipline most if not all punters suffer.
    I would say punters need a few things that they MUST have on their side to be given even the slightest chance


    five years later...Can the book be beaten......NO

    I cannot be any clearer.

    Can the book be beaten... Definitely yes.



    Can Jerry do it (getting 500 on at overnights with an army of accounts, spending many hours on it and getting inside info)... NO.


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    #57
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,142 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Can the book be beaten... Definitely yes.



    Can Jerry do it (getting 500 on at overnights with an army of accounts, spending many hours on it and getting inside info)... NO.


    But surely the amount of hours that Jerry spends at it, if he doesn't regard it as a chore, is irrelevant?


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    #58
    PhuckHugh2
    Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭PhuckHugh2


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    But surely the amount of hours that Jerry spends at it, if he doesn't regard it as a chore, is irrelevant?

    The amount of time one spends assessing a race should almost certainly be considered as a barometer for success.
    Time is not cheap and should not be treated so flippantly in an analysis of success.


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    #59
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    MH

    You can PROBABLY beat the book for €3 or max €5 per point,
    assuming you want to make 10pts per week, say at €5 per point, that's €50 per week, that's €2,600 per year.

    Don't forget that's over 500pts profit per year.

    As I said earlier in the thread

    if people are punting with the same bookmakers for a year and winning they are in a tiny minority that these bookmakers some how let them bet away but restrict all other punters,

    if you are saying you are winning €50 a week on line for the past so many months /years and your bookmaker has not closed you, you are one of the lucky ones however Can the book be beaten was always about winning more than €50 a week.


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    #60
    3DataModem
    Registered Users Posts: 3,957 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    You know all this already, but just want to clarify a little misinformation in some posts:

    The exchanges can be beaten. A certain - small - percentage of Betfair's (and the other two medium-sized exchanges) customers are net winners, long term.

    Bookies are harder to beat, as many restrict sharp bettors. This is part of the business, and getting bets on is not going to get easier in Ireland (maybe in the UK if the law changes). However the books all have their long-term winners.

    Books don't wait for you to win long term to restrict you, they can detect it quicker and easier than that (as one poster mentions above).

    One little carefully placed mis-price will get the would-be sharp bettors flocking, then the bookies can restrict to their hearts content. Beware of well-publicised mis-prices.


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    #61
    del roy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭del roy


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    But surely the amount of hours that Jerry spends at it, if he doesn't regard it as a chore, is irrelevant?




    Dan


    as I said earlier on here, maybe he is doing it that long he does not find it a hassle anymore its just part of him getting on.
    20 people plus on the go all the time,


    I would want to be making minimum €10k a year to do all that.


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