Can the book be beaten....Discussion

del roy

Hi

I started this thread so people can have their say about the thread/Jerry and other people who are betting everyday, most days or serious punters.
I want to keep the other thread for Jerry's selections.



Can I just say before we start if anyone wants to slate Jerry about how crap he is or he is just this,this and that. Lets just talk about the thread and other punters in general trying to beat the book.


However I do understand the thread was called Can the book be beaten and it has to be discussed lets TRY keep the insults to the minimum.


So I will go first with my tuppence worth.


The first year I started following Jerry I opened up loads of bookmakers accounts. So as I start winning the accounts got restricted to tenners and fivers. When I hit the 2.5k profit with about 16 accounts, it started.


First STAN JAMES,


Dear Mr XXXXXXXXX

Your StanJames.com username is: xxxxxx

All Stan James accounts are reviewed on a regular basis by our Trading team, and due to betting patterns on this account the decision has been made to close it.

I would make you aware that this decision has been made at the highest level and will not be reversed. Any open bets will be honoured in accordance with our rules, and any outstanding balance will be returned to you via your normal withdrawal method.

Kind regards,



The Stan James Team.

then, bet365
CASINO AND LOTTO ONLY.


then Betvictor
account closed.


then Corals
€1 max bet


then Ladbrokes
Account restricted and no special offers apply to holder of this account. max bet €20.

Hi xxxxx

We wish to advise you that we are restructuring our approach to bonuses, concessions, Free Bet refunds and Best Odds Guaranteed.

As a result a number of accounts, including yours, will no longer be eligible for bonuses, concessions, free bet refunds or Best Odds Guaranteed of any kind, effective immediately.

This restriction will be included in all future terms and conditions. All other terms and conditions remain the same and we sincerely look forward to your continued custom at Ladbrokes.

Please note any pending bonuses or concessions attached to your account have also been withdrawn.


Kind regards

Ladbrokes Sports Team


then Betfair Sports Book
bets restricted to €3 or €4.


All other surviving account all bets go thru to traders before accepted hardly ever more than €50.


So that's the "getting on" aspect covered.


Now I was betting €20 per point so a max bet for me was €100.
Jerry is/was betting €100 per point and he is getting on, this was proved to me however I don't think the hoops he has to jump thru to get that amount of money on in my view is far too much work.
Now I am in no way knocking Jerry but maybe he is used to all the hassle of giving people money to put in their bank accounts, ringing them when he fancies a bet, instructing them to do the horse as soon as he hangs up, ect, ect, ect.


Now on to the "hard bit" actually picking the winners.
I think somewhere back on one of the threads, someone suggested Jerry would need at least a strike rate of 20%, obviously with the prices of the horses Jerry pick it would not heed to be that high buy and it is a huge BUT a near 9% this year no where near enough of a strike rate too, firstly take your betting seriously and secondly the hassle you would have to go thru to get the bets on if you could actually reach a huge 20% yearly strike rate.


Below is the very first paragraph I wrote when I started this Can the book be beaten project.


After 30 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO. The reason for my answer would be the lack of discipline most if not all punters suffer.
I would say punters need a few things that they MUST have on their side to be given even the slightest chance.

1. DISCIPLINE (if you have not got this, take up some other hobby)
2. Plenty of free time to go thru hours of form and watching racing.
3. Seperate betting bank. (nothing to do with normal day to day money).
4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.
5. Luck. (again if you are not a lucky person get a different hobby).

I am sure lots more can be added to the above list but they are in my view the things you need to give it ago. This came up in the job the other week and I being the elder/oldest/longest/punter of the group said "a huge NO"
however one lad is adamant that he makes it pay, he says he has been ahead the last three years since he started punting, I remain "doubtful" about him being ahead so I asked him to prove it to me, he said he would give me his bets for the next month but that is not enough time as anyone can have a lucky month so I suggested a year, we ended up with a six month period which in my veiw would not be enough time to say whether someone was a successful punter.
The reason for the thread is I (with his permission) will put up all his bets on here so a few of us can watch and learn (his words) the master.
Maybe I should have named the thread "THE Master" but it is all in good fun so here we go. We will be starting with a bank of 100pts.


After the last few years I would like to add another caviat and it would be


6. getting on the actual amount of money at the actual odds the bookmakers are advertising.


So, can the book be beaten?


Now after 35 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO.

However it is a great hobby but costly.


P.S

Jerry has read this and has no problems with it as it is only MY opinion


Del.

BumperD

Fair play Del. Would have to agree, ie NO. Think you had 5 years of threads and not sure if overall it was a small loss or profit. Hardly worth the effort being put in. If those 5 years chucked up a loss, you’d rightly question the assertion of the kid making a profit each year!

del roy

Lads, I have just received a few texts, just for the record,

I agree Jerry had a great first year but everyone has purple patches and maybe that was just what it was.

I cannot agree with some who said, if you were not so greedy and did it for €2 per point your accounts would not be restricted. Why would you bother to go thru all this for €2 per point unless you were a fun punter also

THIS IS ACTUALLY WRONG. BOOKMAKERS WILL RESTRICT/CLOSE YOUR ACCOUNTS EVEN IF YOU ARE ONLY BEATING THE PRICES THEIR WAY OF THINKING IS IF YOU BEAT THE PRICE EVERY NIGHT YOU EVENTUALLY WILL BEAT THE BOOK


and as for "why did you not wait for Jerry to finish his thread before commenting"

I thought it would be unfair for me not to comment as IT WAS ME who started these threads.

del roy

BumperD wrote: »

Fair play Del. Would have to agree, ie NO. Think you had 5 years of threads and not sure if overall it was a small loss or profit. Hardly worth the effort being put in. If those 5 years chucked up a loss, you’d rightly question the assertion of the kid making a profit each year!

Bumper as on the other thread I said I will get back to you on the tally however I was not with him the five years but know different people who were with him at different times over the five years if you know what I mean.
I will get a final figure, one guy suggests 146pts over the five years and that's including the -41 he is down this year.


I will nail it down and put it on this thread.

del roy

here is just an example of a restricted account


Date ID Description Amount Total Funds
22/03/2019 16:21:49 1199be4d-9f4f-4ea2-bc6d-6ee3a0156af5 Sports - Bet - 12,00 € 0,53 €
Got a pain in my ass and had my last €12 on england match on both teams to score @6/5

22/03/2019 16:19:58 687da68d-4af2-4de2-9680-c585ab1b2bd6 Racing - Bet rejected 3,00 € 12,53 €
22/03/2019 16:19:58 49142edc-7f43-4c59-9b1a-cc1a26ba688b Racing - Bet - 3,00 € 9,53 €
22/03/2019 16:19:46 6595b411-5558-4f1e-b9a5-038fedc9549a Racing - Bet rejected 2,00 € 12,53 €
22/03/2019 16:19:45 93d9b36b-fa0d-48e6-a933-8c9a3ef09eda Racing - Bet - 2,00 € 10,53 €
22/03/2019 16:18:58 ebe4174b-8f94-44ea-81f7-495ca7686cd3 Racing - Bet - 3,00 € 12,53 €
22/03/2019 16:18:30 30b0559b-8f45-4f1b-92bb-250dfbded21d Racing - Bet rejected 2,00 € 15,53 €
22/03/2019 16:18:30 72eb35a0-a2ba-40bc-918f-c6b57ef9516e Racing - Bet - 2,00 € 13,53 €
22/03/2019 16:18:16 78863306-cb22-4d80-a2b3-96cf8aa0ae3a Racing - Bet - 2,00 € 15,53 €
22/03/2019 16:18:05 9d97c8ff-e13f-48fa-8c1b-860958353a65 Racing - Bet rejected 5,00 € 17,53 €
22/03/2019 16:18:04 f0d32802-6c16-4dda-a013-e40664ea6996 Racing - Bet - 5,00 € 12,53 €
22/03/2019 16:16:20 cdb111ef-07a4-4d1f-8b4b-12a84fe18e34 Racing - Bet rejected 17,00 € 17,53 €
22/03/2019 16:16:20 51393faf-f53e-4c65-9139-faba1658eb12 Racing - Bet - 17,00 € 0,53 €
22/03/2019 16:16:09 98f9a7da-8b70-4f35-b482-9ede65823cf6 Racing - Bet rejected 17,00 € 17,53 €
22/03/2019 16:16:09 e0823acb-e52b-4cab-ac0a-5f343ae84baa Racing - Bet - 17,00 € 0,53 €
22/03/2019 16:15:50 115a3b25-9b10-49d2-9fc2-934a609b1094 Racing - Bet rejected 4,00 € 17,53 €
22/03/2019 16:15:49 ebc095bf-646f-4892-9a37-fe34aa989b5e Racing - Bet - 4,00 € 13,53 €
22/03/2019 15:16:47 9b77ab17-dd11-4447-bafc-8ae13b0673c5 Racing - Bet rejected 5,00 € 17,53 €
22/03/2019 15:16:47 2bbc646b-e7f3-48f2-8f58-19ec1d0f200e Racing - Bet - 5,00 € 12,53 €
22/03/2019 15:16:03 44e12dbe-c998-4028-ae31-d1fcb3bde5cc Racing - Bet rejected 5,00 € 17,53 €
22/03/2019 15:16:03 a0de5f31-4192-47cf-9b79-e06eb6a2fd63 Racing - Bet - 5,00 € 12,53 €
22/03/2019 15:15:41 c648f91e-0206-4f32-b6ba-c2879464db1c Racing - Bet - 5,00 € 17,53 €
22/03/2019 15:14:03 4e7572a7-075d-4306-920f-56092c8766b8 Racing - Bet - 5,00 € 22,53 €
22/03/2019 15:13:34 945170ae-0d5a-4c2e-9736-654eb465e350 Racing - Bet rejected 4,00 € 27,53 €
22/03/2019 15:13:34 beb7b602-5a95-4449-8755-2c8cc83fe668 Racing - Bet - 4,00 € 23,53 €

this bookmakers advertisement says

We are one of the leading Bookmakers in the world. breaking my bollxxx laughing.

PhuckHugh2

While a points system is a decent way to gauge results. I think a ROI in form of a percentage is a much more accurate way to gauge profitibality over an extended period. Similar to how Mostly Harmless works it in his thread. That would be my only critique. As having a 1point win bet should not be treated the same as a 5point bet. For this reason the ROI approach is a much better gauge to results and once that is documented strike rate is pretty irrelevant or well less relevant anyway.

del roy

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

While a points system is a decent way to gauge results. I think a ROI in form of a percentage is a much more accurate way to gauge profitibality over an extended period. Similar to how Mostly Harmless works it in his thread. That would be my only critique. As having a 1point win bet should not be treated the same as a 5 point bet. For this reason the ROI approach is a much better gauge to results and once that is documented strike rate is pretty irrelevant or well less relevant anyway.

I don't understand this Hugh, it is not treated the same, Jerry used the staking system to highlight his strong bets.

PhuckHugh2

Yes for sure. However in the updated post day to day it is just listed number of bets xx winners xx points xx.

A better method of gauging success is
Points Invested: XXX
Points Returned: YYY
Return on Investment: [(YYY-XXX)/XXX * 100]%

So what i am trying to say is. Showing a profit of say 50 points over a spread of 200 points invested is a lot different to being up 50 points for a 1000 point investment. Which is hard to gauge at the moment with just number of bets as not all of those bets are the same. Understand it is not so easy to do going back now.

del roy

oh sorry I thought you meant he treated 1pt e/w bets the same as 5 pts win. understood.

handsfree2

I've enjoyed following your thread for the last few years so thank you.

Here's my take:

1. The results have been generally on a downward trend, and I would conclude that it's getting more difficult each year to beat the book. The reason for this could be that the bookies are continually improving their algorithms.

2. The restrictions on accounts put me off gambling in general. If the bookie are creating a situation where they are the only ones that can win, then what is the point. I only punt on Cheltenham and aintree now.

del roy

handsfree2 wrote: »

I've enjoyed following your thread for the last few years so thank you.

Here's my take:

1. The results have been generally on a downward trend, and I would conclude that it's getting more difficult each year to beat the book. The reason for this could be that the bookies are continually improving their algorithms.

2. The restrictions on accounts put me off gambling in general. If the bookie are creating a situation where they are the only ones that can win, then what is the point. I only punt on Cheltenham and aintree now.

Obviously picking winners is the number one thing you need to win but the above is doing exactly what you say, bookmakers have you by the bxlls once you come under their radar that you have a clue.


Maybe we should look for someone who bets after the markets have settled down 12.00 midday and is beating the book but like i said the hoops Jerry has to go thru is ridiculous.

Imhof Tank

So based on what you say Del I have this impression of the Kid as someone more or less doing a second job with all the hours he must spend on form analysis, trends, the trainer quote sites you occasionally mention etc and then all the hoops to go through just to get on. The question asked here was “Is it possible to beat the Book” – but what’s the point in beating the book for a few euros profit if you’ve put in an extra 10 or 15 or 20 hours a week over several years and had to handle all the stress that comes with it? How could that not impinge on a person’s emotional wellbeing?

I think myself Jerry is chasing the pro punter dream and is playing with fire in a serious way. Horse racing is still great fun but you have to accept your inner mug. Punters who don’t are delusional. That’s been my philosophy for the past few years after wasting the previous 25 years trying unsuccessfully to bet like a pro.

del roy

Imhof Tank wrote: »

So based on what you say Del I have this impression of the Kid as someone more or less doing a second job with all the hours he must spend on form analysis, trends, the trainer quote sites you occasionally mention etc and then all the hoops to go through just to get on. The question asked here was “Is it possible to beat the Book” – but what’s the point in beating the book for a few euros profit if you’ve put in an extra 10 or 15 or 20 hours a week over several years and had to handle all the stress that comes with it? How could that not impinge on a person’s emotional wellbeing?

I think myself Jerry is chasing the pro punter dream and is playing with fire in a serious way. Horse racing is still great fun but you have to accept your inner mug. Punters who don’t are delusional. That’s been my philosophy for the past few years after wasting the previous 25 years trying unsuccessfully to bet like a pro.

So, can the book be beaten?


Now after 35 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO.

However it is a great hobby but costly.


P.S

Jerry has read this and has no problems with it as it is only MY opinion


Del.


I am afraid what Jerry does is his own business but if you read my first post in the thread


What he has to do to get his money on is "ridiculous" however he is so used to it now maybe its not as big a hassle as I would find it.
I also must add, one of his 2pts e/w must be a problem but 5pts win must be a nightmare.

Imhof Tank

Great hobby/ costly/ impossible to beat the book - fully agree, that's what I mean by accept your inner mug

del roy

a true reflection on the situation

after five years Jerry is up approx 150 pts @ €100 per point = €15,000 puting in maybe 20 hours a week.

Minimum wage working 20 hours per week at €10 per hour = €200 per week, €10,000 per year x 5 years = €50,000. before tax, usc, others.

*€10,000 per year less two weeks holiday.

the cold facts of the situation.

Andrew00

You'll only make money as a punter by betting very occasionally on certs it's as simple as that or if you get info from stable

Mostly Harmless

Andrew00 wrote: »

You'll only make money as a punter by betting very occasionally on certs it's as simple as that or if you get info from stable

This is definitely not true to be honest

Andrew00

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

This is definitely not true to be honest

Well it is. You certainly won't make money long term betting every day of the week on southwell and the likes.

Mostly Harmless

Andrew00 wrote: »

Well it is. You certainly won't make money long term betting every day of the week on southwell and the likes.

Every "cert" has a price where it is too short and every no hoper has a price big enough to be worth betting, stable info is massively overrated in general. The only way you make money long term is by betting value. There people who bet exclusively on all weather racing and turn a profit on betfair show prices but if you say it is not possible, fair enough.

Mostly Harmless

Some of my comments based on what I have read in this thread and the other thread, bearing in mind I only dip in and out of other thread from time to time (hope this doesn't sound too critical - just my reading of it)
1. Getting accounts closed/heavily restricted by most firms is not really indicative of much, it happens to A LOT of people
2. The above is especially true if you are taking overnight prices shortly after prices go up (and even more so if the price goes on to shorten significantly) - not sure how many of the selections in other thread were overnights like this but there used to be a fair few. Anybody who is really serious about punting and “beating the book long term” is not doing it at overnight prices – it just is not sustainable
3. Being able to get money on at the right price is as much of a skill as picking winners at the right price – doing one without the other is a bit pointless
4. There was a period a few months back where some patently awful each way bets were getting regularly put up in the thread (e.g. 7 runner races), no idea what the thinking was behind these bets but they seem to have reduced frequency lately
5. Not sure why someone who is supposedly so skilled at punting would give someone else permission to put their bets up on a public form (especially when they already have issues getting on at the prices)
6. As has been mentioned earlier absolute profit/loss figures are meaningless without a ROI figure

del roy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Some of my comments based on what I have read in this thread and the other thread, bearing in mind I only dip in and out of other thread from time to time (hope this doesn't sound too critical - just my reading of it)
1. Getting accounts closed/heavily restricted by most firms is not really indicative of much, it happens to A LOT of people
2. The above is especially true if you are taking overnight prices shortly after prices go up (and even more so if the price goes on to shorten significantly) - not sure how many of the selections in other thread were overnights like this but there used to be a fair few. Anybody who is really serious about punting and “beating the book long term” is not doing it at overnight prices – it just is not sustainable
3. Being able to get money on at the right price is as much of a skill as picking winners at the right price – doing one without the other is a bit pointless
4. There was a period a few months back where some patently awful each way bets were getting regularly put up in the thread (e.g. 7 runner races), no idea what the thinking was behind these bets but they seem to have reduced frequency lately
5. Not sure why someone who is supposedly so skilled at punting would give someone else permission to put their bets up on a public form (especially when they already have issues getting on at the prices)
6. As has been mentioned earlier absolute profit/loss figures are meaningless without a ROI figure

A very quick answer to this one.

once I get my bets on I don't give a flying fook who bets the horse after me. from Jerry.


I will say one thing for Jerry, he put a huge effort into getting this board winners.

3. Being able to get money on at the right price is as much of a skill as picking winners at the right price – doing one without the other is a bit pointless

Pointless statement unless your are prepared to say how much you put on.
As I said already we would all have no problem getting €5 or €10 on each horse but would that type of money be worth Jerrys effort. I don't think so.

Opinion8

I have been backing horses for years and know for a fact the book can't be beaten . I have had days with 4 winners and 2 weeks without a winner. You only know as much as the next man and without luck he's winging it. As for bookies closing your accounts is like the barman throwing you out when you can't walk anymore anyway. I don't believe you can win that often .

Mostly Harmless

del roy wrote: »

A very quick answer to this one.

once I get my bets on I don't give a flying fook who bets the horse after me. from Jerry.


I will say one thing for Jerry, he put a huge effort into getting this board winners.

3. Being able to get money on at the right price is as much of a skill as picking winners at the right price – doing one without the other is a bit pointless

Pointless statement unless your are prepared to say how much you put on.
As I said already we would all have no problem getting €5 or €10 on each horse but would that type of money be worth Jerrys effort. I don't think so.

But the amount anoyone can realistically get on overnight is basically nothing. Punting overnights is not conducive to getting more than €5 or €10. Betting accounts are hard to get and even harder to keep going, so it's just mad to bet in a way that gets them closed - especially if you are betting in the stake sizes you say Jerry is betting - getting a ton a point on at overnights is fantasy in my very honest opinion.


I don't talk about stake sizes generally cos it turns into a pi55ing contest, but I get enough on to do okay. Anyway, just sharing my feedback, take it, leave it, ignore it, think it's rubbish, it's your call.

Andrew00

Why don't you lot just bet in shop instead of dwelling about account closures

Mostly Harmless

Andrew00 wrote: »

Why don't you lot just bet in shop instead of dwelling about account closures

I generally do as much as possible but it's not always convenient or better prices/terms are available elsewhere.

del roy

Less we forget lads amongest all the losers we did have some great craic bring ya all back to the end of part two December 2013

Dels Bank €1200 now €3125
The Kids Bank (part 2) now +73pts
The Kids Profit (part 1) +165.4pts
Thread started 9th December 2013

Bet 1. 28/05/2014 Modem 2pts e/w 10/1 rule4 10c 2nd 7/2
Bet 2. 29/05/2014 Top Notch Tonto 2pts win 3/1 lost
Bet 3. 30/05/2014 Nelsons quay 2pts win 7/2 unpl
Bet 4. 30/05/2014 Fly solo 2pts win 4/1 1st
Bet 5 31/05/2014 Gramercy 2pts e/w. 9/1 lost
Bet 6 31/05/2014 Mica mika 2pts win. 5/1 lost
Bet 7 01/06/2014 Suton sid 2pts e/w 12/1 lost
Bet 8 02/06/2014 Universal truth 2pts e/w 8/1 lost
Bet 9 02/06/2014 Morache Music 2pts e/w 10/1 lost
Bet 10 03/06/2014 Lutine Charlie 2pts e/w 7/1 2nd 8/1
Bet 11 Ante post Snow Sky 2pts e/w non runner lost
Bet 12 06/06/2014 Momentus 66/1 1pt e/w 4 places lost
Bet 13 08/06/2014 the confessor 2pts e/w 15/2 lost
Bet 14 10/06/2014 last minute lisa 3pts win 4/1 lost
Bet 15 12/06/2014 Avonmore star 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
Bet 16 13/06/2014 Cay dancer 1pt e/w 14/1 1st
Bet 17 13/06/2014 Gracious George 2pts e/w lost
Bet 18 14/06/2014 saptapadi 2pts win 4/1 lost
Bet 19 14/06/2014 Body and soul 2pts win 5/1 lost
Bet 20 14/06/2014 see the sun 1pt e/w 25/1 1st
Bet 21 14/06/2014 noodles blue boy 2pt e/w 8/1 2nd
Bet 22 15/06/2014 Ice buster 1pt e/w 2nd
Bet 23 15/06/2014 millkwood 2pts e/w 14/1 3rd
Bet 24 16/06/2014 Teide peak 1pt e/w 8/1 lost
Bet 25 17/06/2014Verrazano 2pts win 4/1 lost
Bet 27 17/06/2014 Cappella Sansivero 9/1 2pt e/w 2nd
Bet 28 17/06/2014 sohar 1pt e/w 16/1 4th
Bet 29 17/06/2014 line of reason 3pts win 4/1 1st
Bet 30 18/06/2014 loving spirit 2pts e/w 25/1 lost
Bet 31 18/06/2016 Queen Cathrine 1pt e/w 20/1 2nd
Bet 32 19/06/2016 Venezia 2pts e/w 20/1 th R4 10p
Bet 33 19/06/2016 Elusive gent 2pts e/w 12/1 lost
Bet 34 20/06/2014 Odeon 2pts e/w 12/1 lost
Bet 35 20/06/2014 gold approach 1pt e/w 14/1 lost
Bet 36 20/06/2014 Intransigent 1pt e/w 33/1 lost
Bet 37 21/06/2014 absulutely so 2pts e/w 12/1 lost
Bet 38 23/06/2014 tax reform 2pts e/w 6/1 lost
Bet 39 24/06/2014 king of the celts 2pts e/w 14/1 lost
Bet 40 24/06/2014 mey blossom 2pts e/w 10/1 lost
Bet 41 25/06/2014 lutine charlie 2pt e/w 10/1 lost
Bet 42 25/06/2014 go charlie 16/1 1pt e/w 2nd
Bet 43 26/06/2014 Hold the line 1pt e/w 20/1 3rd
Bet 44 26/06/2014 Bonnie charlie 1pt e/w 14/1 lost
Bet 45 27/06/2014 fly to the moon 2pt e/w 14/1 lost
Bet 46 27/06/2014 English summer 2pts win 10/3 pp 1st 30c r4
Bet 47 27/06/2014 Nashville 2pts win 4/1 lost
Bet 48 28/06/2014 back off mate 3pts e/w lost
Bet 49 30/06/2014 Sherian 2pt e/w 6/1 lost
Bet 50 01/07/2014 Right first 3pts win 9/4 lost
Bet 51 01/07/2014 the kid 3pts win 7/2 1st
Bet 52 02/07/2014 Tenor 2pts e/w 10/1 1st
Bet 53 03/07/2014 spring focus 3pts win 4/1 1st r4 20c

Comment........Surely he can't have 4 winners in as many days

next 3 bets that day

3.10 borough boy 2pts e/w 10/1
4.10 presburg 1pt e/w 20/1 1st
7.20 Zemario 1pt e/w 16/1


no shortie tomorrow

results

Borough boy
Presburg 1st 14/1

comments

Just got home, Thanks to Del roy and the Kid again.
Presburg you little beaut!
This is getting silly!
Oh my days. That's some picking.
Good God, he's done it again!
Kids on a heater ! Great stuff,
Oh my word... This thread is something else...
Welcome to the 4th of July. Now we can celebrate.
Some shout kid.

Ahhhhhhh lads.

Crying laughin here at how ****ing ridiculous this is


we're a fooking bunch of fickle bastardos, only remembering the losers.

del roy

Andrew00 wrote: »

Why don't you lot just bet in shop instead of dwelling about account closures

best prices are the night before hence restrictions on account holders who know when the compilers make a rik.

del roy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

But the amount anoyone can realistically get on overnight is basically nothing. Punting overnights is not conducive to getting more than €5 or €10. Betting accounts are hard to get and even harder to keep going, so it's just mad to bet in a way that gets them closed - especially if you are betting in the stake sizes you say Jerry is betting - getting a ton a point on at overnights is fantasy in my very honest opinion.


I don't talk about stake sizes generally cos it turns into a pi55ing contest, but I get enough on to do okay. Anyway, just sharing my feedback, take it, leave it, ignore it, think it's rubbish, it's your call.

MH
I CAN STATE HERE THAT JERRY CAN GET €500 ON THE NIGHT BEFORE, I have witnessed how he does it, many people €10s and €20s some of their accounts only last a month.

BumperD

Del, you seem to have a couple of those thread profits at your fingertips, have you the full summary of all ( not detail, just where they ended profit or loss)

That first thread was a great laugh

del roy

Opinion8 wrote: »

I have been backing horses for years and know for a fact the book can't be beaten . I have had days with 4 winners and 2 weeks without a winner. You only know as much as the next man and without luck he's winging it. As for bookies closing your accounts is like the barman throwing you out when you can't walk anymore anyway. I don't believe you can win that often .

As said earlier in thread,
you don't have to win to have your account restricted, once the bookmakers cop on you can spot their odds compilers mistakes they will restrict your account to a few euro so you bet somewherelse.

del roy

Bumper I know when he went private he gave up at -70pts.

Mostly Harmless

del roy wrote: »

MH
I CAN STATE HERE THAT JERRY CAN GET €500 ON THE NIGHT BEFORE, I have witnessed how he does it, many people €10s and €20s some of their accounts only last a month.


As I have already said, I had lots of accounts closed just betting a score a point so if people are not using "other peoples accounts" and still getting on, well thats fantasy.

Sorry but €500 on overnights is stone cold fantasy. Why not just wait till the morning and get more on without the hassle and without marking the bookies card for them, especially if you're betting "info" and putting it up on a forum - thereby ruining the price at earliest possible time for connections of horse etc.

Even if you do have the 30 or so accounts that would be needed to get 500 on overnight prices those accounts are getting marked/linked by the firms as soon as they all bet the same selection around the same time and will be closed even sooner than would be case anyway.

Nobody who bets seriously bets overnight prices.

del roy

Del, you seem to have a couple of those thread profits at your fingertips, have you the full summary of all ( not detail, just where they ended profit or loss)

That first thread was a great laugh,

it sure was, remember STREAMS OF WHISKEY WINNING AT 18/1.

His form figures were something like 07fppu.

Was in the pub when it won, must have collected about 10k from the bookies everyone in the pub on it.

del roy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Sorry but €500 on overnights is stone cold fantasy. Why not just wait till the morning and get more on without the hassle and without marking the bookies card for them, especially if you're betting "info" and putting it up on a forum - thereby ruining the price at earliest possible time for connections of horse etc. Nobody who bets seriously bets overnight prices.

unfortunately Jerry was two things.....SERIOUS and.........................greedy.






sorry about the last remark on other post I deleted it.

Mostly Harmless

If Jerry doesn't have the total Profit/Loss/ROI for all bets since started posting on here then that's a bit of a red flag. As he either has them and doesn't want to share as presumably don't look great or he doesn't keep the records.

del roy

Jerry could not have been fairer to this board.

Paid for all the sites and did the foot work, then put the bets up here as soon as he got on himself, he maybe somethings but to start doubting his reasons for giving loads of winners to this board is plainly out of order.

if he wants to keep how much he won/lost thats his business, not many will come on here and say they are betting €100 a point even when he was losing and people were slagging him he kept at it and reduced his losing tally from -128 to -41.

Mostly Harmless

del roy wrote: »

Jerry could not have been fairer to this board.

Paid for all the sites and did the foot work, then put the bets up here as soon as he got on himself, he maybe somethings but to start doubting his reasons for giving loads of winners to this board is plainly out of order.

if he wants to keep how much he won/lost thats his business, not many will come on here and say they are betting €100 a point even when he was losing and people were slagging him he kept at it and reduced his losing tally from -128 to -41.

So we can't answer the question "can book be beaten long term" because Jerry won't show us long term figures?

Fanny Wank

Opinion8 wrote: »

I have been backing horses for years and know for a fact the book can't be beaten . I have had days with 4 winners and 2 weeks without a winner. You only know as much as the next man and without luck he's winging it. As for bookies closing your accounts is like the barman throwing you out when you can't walk anymore anyway. I don't believe you can win that often .

Yet plenty of people (not a large percentage of punters granted) make a living betting

DubInTheWest

del roy wrote: »

but to start doubting his reasons for giving loads of winners to this board is plainly out of order.

The winners were sporadic and by the law of averages they were bound to happen when they did win. The profit/loss would be up and down, and then down all the way til the arse it out of your trousers. I can hardly believe my eyes when after 20 losers there is a winner and people on here congratulate and say they backed it. They need their heads tested.

I think the real reason behind the original thread was give winners out and if they are successful, charge them for selections in the future. If I remember correctly there was a thread closed down over that when jerry was going through his 'purple patch'.

Can the book be beaten?! - Yes I'm sure it can, but not by following jerry, that's 100% banker material.

del roy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

So we can't answer the question "can book be beaten long term" because Jerry won't show us long term figures?

I can tell you two things.

1.there are about 500 bets on this boards site where the bets were put up mostly the night before,if someone wants to go back thru them and tell us what the roi was or how much profit he made, work away.
Jerry never ever said he would put up his figures up on here.

2. If he did come on and says I am up 20,000 would you then want to see his bookmaker statements.

I’m sorry my but from a guy who just a few minutes ago stated

I won’t say how much I put on but it’s enough to get by.

Look until I can prove how much he is up or down whoever is interested in what his p/l is for whatever reason can go thru all his bets he posted on here.
It can’t be that hard.

del roy

DubInTheWest wrote: »

The winners were sporadic and by the law of averages they were bound to happen when they did win. The profit/loss would be up and down, and then down all the way til the arse it out of your trousers. I can hardly believe my eyes when after 20 losers there is a winner and people on here congratulate and say they backed it. They need their heads tested.

I think the real reason behind the original thread was give winners out and if they are successful, charge them for selections in the future. If I remember correctly there was a thread closed down over that when jerry was going through his 'purple patch'.

Can the book be beaten?! - Yes I'm sure it can, but not by following jerry, that's 100% banker material.

Tell you what West’s

You put up 300 to 400 selections most of them the night before and we will all see how much you are ahead.
Let’s see how many are bound to win.

Another clueless idiot

Imhof Tank

del roy wrote: »

Tell you what West’s

You put up 300 to 400 selections most of them the night before and we will all see how much you are ahead.
Let’s see how many are bound to win.

Another clueless idiot

Who are the "other" clueless idiots Del?

del roy

You are a smart man, read thru the thread and pick them out youself.

Imhof Tank

del roy wrote: »

Hi

the thread was called Can the book be beaten and it has to be discussed lets TRY keep the insults to the minimum.

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Bad form Derek.

Disappointing.

del roy

DubInTheWest wrote: »

The winners were sporadic and by the law of averages they were bound to happen when they did win. The profit/loss would be up and down, and then down all the way til the arse it out of your trousers. I can hardly believe my eyes when after 20 losers there is a winner and people on here congratulate and say they backed it. They need their heads tested.

I think the real reason behind the original thread was give winners out and if they are successful, charge them for selections in the future. If I remember correctly there was a thread closed down over that when jerry was going through his 'purple patch'.

Can the book be beaten?! - Yes I'm sure it can, but not by following jerry, that's 100% banker material.

Three insults above, if he can give it, I am sure he can take it.

Mostly Harmless

I was just asking what the total was for the bets put on here, as I think an overall total would help answer the question "can the book be beaten long term", but it seems this information cannot/will not be provided.

I just find it strange that the assertion that Jerry turns a profit putning is based on a very good run (and it was a very good run) around 5 years ago. Whenever anyone questions things we are going back to this run from a long time ago, I mean it was a very impressive run but it was not "long term" and it was a long time ago now and a lot has happened since then.

A few things don't seem to add up to me but I will leave it at that anyway.

Not sure why this thread was made, as anything other than compliments seems to get an indignant response.

The Enbalmer

Sorry to sound like a complete newb but who is jerry?

PhuckHugh2

Im with MH there is no way anyone serious about betting is blasting accounts by taking overnight prices.

longshotvalue

Its defiantly possible to beat the bookies, but i hazard a guess that its only to a max of maybe €10 a point.


I have only 1 restricted account and thats Betfair Sportsbook and maybe boyles (that i dont use).


They dont seem to rate big price winners every so often, certainly with small bets.

del roy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

I was just asking what the total was for the bets put on here, as I think an overall total would help answer the question "can the book be beaten long term", but it seems this information cannot/will not be provided.

I just find it strange that the assertion that Jerry turns a profit putning is based on a very good run (and it was a very good run) around 5 years ago. Whenever anyone questions things we are going back to this run from a long time ago, I mean it was a very impressive run but it was not "long term" and it was a long time ago now and a lot has happened since then.

A few things don't seem to add up to me but I will leave it at that anyway.

Not sure why this thread was made, as anything other than compliments seems to get an indignant response.

I really can't make it any clearer without being rude


So, can the book be beaten?


Now after 35 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO.

However it is a great hobby but costly.



After 5 years on and off following Jerry I have given my answer because I started this thread.


However again I will have to bring people back to my very first sentence of my very first post on this subject



Here it is



After 30 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO. The reason for my answer would be the lack of disipline most if not all punters suffer.
I would say punters need a few things that they MUST have on their side to be given even the slightest chance


five years later...Can the book be beaten......NO

I cannot be any clearer.

del roy

aidankkk wrote: »

Its defiantly possible to beat the bookies, but i hazard a guess that its only to a max of maybe €10 a point.


I have only 1 restricted account and thats Betfair Sportsbook and maybe boyles (that i dont use).


They dont seem to rate big price winners every so often, certainly with small bets.

I couldn't agree more Aidan, anymore than a tenner a point and then in Jerrys case the amount of hours he puts in, that amount would be too little.